Account Bet

Newmarket 2.30

(5) SHASTYE

£40 WIN

4/1 Corals , Sp Odds
7/2 Ladbrokes, Skybet, Chandlers, Totalbet , Paddy power, Bluesq, Bet365

Take any 7/2 or better. Plenty of it around. Strong Bet for me today at her price
in light of her profile and what she has to beat. I am having a rare substantial bet on
John Gosdens horse today.


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Talking Points


* SHORT BREAK

There will be no Messages before Next weekend as I have to take the week off due to my house being Rewired.
It has long been planned and I wont have internet access for much of the time. I do feel ready for a break after the
hot weather and the racing and I will come Back refreshed. I havent been betting much on the Account at all , because
I have recognised that I havent been firing and there has been a short period where I am not finding the right bets
and am not looking at the right things. Just been a slow progress free time and this enforced break will help me a lot
on my return. Its been a rough week, not so much with Losing acount bets, as we havent been playing hard and I know
I have tested peoples patience. When I return I will be more focussed and will concentrate more on quality and maybe
just 2-3 races a day rather than quantity and hopefully find some stronger cleare bets. Todays bet, win lose of draw will
be typical of this. I really do fancy todays Account Bet,


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Todays Racing



Newmarket 2.30 - Siemens Smart Homes Technology Aphrodite Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

6/5 Asawer, 5/1 Shastye, 6/1 Selebela, 7/1 Light Of Morn, Polar Jem, 10/1 Art Eyes, 20/1 Blaze Of Colour,

You should bet SHASTYE here because she comes froma perfect trial race, the Lancashire Oaks at Haydock 2 weeks ago. Horses that came from Haydock have an astonishing record in this race. The Lancashire Oaks is THE Key trial race for this and horses that came from the Lancashire Oaks have an outstanding record . They have a 6-10 record and a big £17 LSP

Horses coming from the Lancashire Oaks running in this race.

2004 - There were None that ran at Haydock
2003 - There were 2 horses that came from Haydock. They WON at 15/8 and came 2nd at 9/2
2002 - There were 2 horses that came from Haydock including the Winner at 6/1 in a dead heat
2001 - The only horse that came from Haydock WON at 5/1
2000 - A 20/1 Foreign raider won. Just 2 horses came from the Lancashire Oaks and 1 was beaten in a close finish at 5/1
1999 - Only 1 horse came from Haydock and he WON at 6/1
1998 - Only 1 horse came from Haydock and he WON at Evens
1997 - There were None that ran at Haydock
1996 - The only horse to come from Haydock WON at 6/4

John Gosden trains the selection SHASTYE 4/1 and she is the only horse running in this race that came from the Perfect Trial race at Haydock. John Gosden knows exactly what it takes to win this race as his record is exceptional. He has a 4 from 6 record in this race and 3 of his 4 winners came via the Lancashire Oaks.

Gosdens record in this Race

1996 - Shemozzle WON 6/4
1997 - Anno Luce WON 8/1
2001 - Tjinouska Lost 20/1
2003 - Marani WON 6/1
2003 - Treble Heights - WON 15/8
2004 - Feaat - Lost 9/1



The Favourite

The favourite ASAWER will be a danger but she comes from the Royal Meeting. Several horses coming from York have failed to reproduce their form this year and ASAWER may be another and I think its a telling sign that this race has rarely been won by a horse coming from the Royal Meeting . It has happened , but never when a horse from Haydocks Lancashire Oaks has been in opposition and never when a horse from Ascot ran well at the Royal Meeting. There were 2 horses that started favourite in this race having come from the Royal Meeting and both ran badly. I dont see the preperation as ideal as these horses are trained to perfection for Ascot, and its very hard to get a Filly to "peak" for Ascot and then "peak" again here just a month later. Its a tall order and these types usually fail to deliver as the better preperation . The vast majority of winners of this race bypassed Royal Ascot-York and thats why I think SHASTYE will beat the Favourite ASAWER today. If ASAWER does beat my selection it will be because she is a 3 year old and the weight for age has made the difference. Although its true that 3 year olds do have a slightly better record than 4 year olds, there isnt much in it and older horses won this in 2004 , 2003 and dead heated in 2002 so in recent years the record of 4 year olds has been far better. I am also not certain ASAWER Will like the ground.

She is a Darshan after all , they often want cut and a maiden win at Salisbury in a poor race on fast ground doesnt cut it for me. I suspect ASAWER will hate the ground today.

SELEBELA was 2nd in this race last year but he had a) 12lbs weight for age as a 3 year old and b) Had a prep race and this year he has neither . LIGHT OF MORN Comes from a "Listed" race and horses that do that invariably fail to improve enough to win this. Looking at Listed class horses that try and win this race they are just 1 from 16 and that winner was only in a dead heat. Its the same with horses that come from Handicaps (Today Blaze of Colour and Art Eys try this) as these types have never won either (0-11).


For me everything points to SHASTYE. She has had the perfect preperation and loves this trip and fast ground and she takes on horses that have not had the same profile and have been trained to peak on other days or forced to bridge too much of a Class Gap. This could be the last time we see SHASTYE as she may retire after this race . She is in Foal to Pivotal which may be at least some of the reason why she has improved so much recently and I can see her taking this before retiring. I see the preperation that SHASTYE has as perfect. She is worth a strong bet


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Other Opinions.

Pretty Tough going at the rest of the meetings. Here are just a few thoughts.

In the 3.05 at Newmarket I find it interesting that MACAULAY is favourite at 9/4 . He has 3 strikes against him and when you have a favourite with 3 clear facts against him I have to oppose him. Firstly Roger Charltons "maiden winner" comes here with History to defy. Although in todays paper Charlton Suggstes he is "well handicapped" he may have to be because ALL 16 horses that came from a maiden lost in this race and that included 4 favourites. Its a tall order and not a task that would make 9/4 seem value. Secondly MACAULEY has ran just once this year as well and this race has never been won by a horse with just 1 race this year (although only 6 tried). Finally he is having his 3rd career start. No Horse has ever ran in this race with less than 3 career starts and whilst I respect Roger Charlton immensely and this horse may be able to defy his handicap mark, he does have 3 serious question marks to answer.

In the 3.25 at Newbury (Weatherbys Super Sprint) the Statistics are so strong its worth a mention.

2/1 Titus Alone, 6/1 Hot, 8/1 Triskaidekaphobia, 10/1 Gamble In Gold, 12/1 Always Hopeful, Azygous, 14/1 The Snatcher, 16/1 Danjet, 20/1 Godfrey Street, Shermeen, 25/1 Amber Glory, Nigella, Phantom Whisper, Takoda, 33/1 Abbielou, Brandywell Boy, Lake Hero, Montzando, Secret Night, 66/1 Lady Livius, Prettilini, Ridgeway Cross, 100/1 Bathwick Intyre, Bathwick Prince, Twinned

Staying with the market leaders (After all horses at 16/1 and over are 0 from 106) I think we can narrow this field down
Horses that ran within 2 weeks have an Appaling 1 from 90 record. The only winner was Presto Vento in 2002 who had a huge draw advantage that year.

This year TRISKAIDEKAPHOBIA 6/1 tries to improve that dismal record. I cant have him because of this statistic and he is a Colt in a race fillies are favourred. Another stat you dont want is a horse that came from a 2 year old maiden. They are just 2-102 so out goes ALWAYS HOPEFUL as he also carries 9st. Horses have to be on the verge of a Royal Ascot winner to be able to defy weight in this race.Only top notch juveniles can defy weight in this race. There have been 3 horses carrying over 8st 10lbs to victory in this race but 3 were winners at Royal Ascot that year . The draw picture is confused as ever. In past years You had to have a High Drawn horse as history showed a massive bias to high drawn animals. This year the pseudo experts suggest its not that easy to decide. If you take the statistics in this race and demand the following , a) Your horse must have ran 15-47 days ago b) Had no more than 5 runs this year c) Carries less than 8st 10lbs d) Starts less than 16/1 you would have found 13 of the 14 winners (93%) from just 42 runners (15.5%). This suggests the stats play a large part in the race. The clear contenders are Titus Alone, Hot and the Selection GAMBLE IN GOLD who is a Filly, they have a great record, and she also has a high draw.

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