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Account Bet

No Bet

Best Bet Of The Day

Today is Ruthless. Tomorrow looks a massive day with stats everywhere and we could be very busy on Thursday. The cards have beaten me today. As for the Best bet of the day its a very close call. Perhaps 6/1 about Secret History in the Musidora (2.30) is overpriced. Not a day where the
Gems are too obvious today but all the thoughts below.



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Talking Points


* Mondays Summary

3 Account Bets. 1 Winner. £55 Staked and £63.63 returned. Overall a tiny £8.63 profit . I thought Blue Bajan ran reasonably well but I think he may be ungenuine and I Wont be betting him again . Bold Desire ran quite well at 5/1 in 3rd place but I felt he didnt let himself down on the ground. The Each Way double was the highlight of the day. I staked the bet that way knowing that if both won we would be guaranteed a profit but also in mind that both horses would need an Act of Parliament not to frame and it would not be a " 3 bet losing day". The 2 horses both won very easily. I think Fort Dignity may be a Group 1 horse later in the year . He won yesterday in spite of a lot of things. Overall I think I staked the bets badly yesterday. The E Mail was littered with winnners again and to get a small profit out of the way underperformed slightly. Confidence is high sky at the moment. Feel I am reading the races correctly and the stats are working very well and helping me.


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Today's Racing


Today there are 5 Races at York with significant stats to report. Brighton has 3 races to look at but Newcastle is a fresh meeting. The Dilemma with York is about how much time to dedicate to the meeting in light of how hard this meeting is traditionally.



York 1.30 - Newton Investment Management Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-100) 1m2½f (1m2f88y)

5/1 My Paris, Night Spot, Tiger Tiger, 11/2 Shahzan House, Zero Tolerance, 10/1 Crow Wood, 14/1 Prince Nureyev, Secretary General, Top Seed, 16/1 Jazz Scene, Pagan Sky, 25/1 United Nations,

Another weak race statistically. If you applied the weight stats it would suggest that Night Spot , Jazz Scene and Pagan Sky are going to lack the Class to win but that stat is hardly dynamic. The biggest edge I feel is to side with a 4 year old. They have won 10 of the 14 races and 4 of
the last 5 renewals . SHARZAN HOUSE was runner up in this race last year but I think he is fighting a loosing battle with the handicapper. He is 3lbs higher in the Handicap and carried 8lbs more weight. I feel he is beatable. I Fancied TIGER TIGER at Chester when he landed a big gamble. I didnt think he did anything wrong. He loves the ground and the winners of this race in 1992 and 1994 came from the same race as he won at Chester . They were both 4 year olds as is he . Pricewise have been responsible for shorterning his odds this morning . The statistics offer little reason to confidently oppose anything but TIGER TIGER is the selection in a very open looking race.

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York 2:00 williamhillpoker.com Stakes (Handicap) (Registered As The Merrion Stakes) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo,0-110) 7f

7/2 Goodricke, 9/2 Joseph Henry, 5/1 Haunting Memories, 7/1 Cool Panic, 8/1 Gifted Gamble, Salamanca, Wise Dennis, 14/1 Beaver Patrol, St Andrews Storm, 20/1 Foxhaven,

Hard to know what to make of the draw. 9 of the last 12 winners were Drawn no higher than 5, but this is the smallest ever field. There have been usually 14-20 runners every year in this race so I think I am inclined to ignore the draw factor and leave that to the draw bores.
Certainly 3-6 Career starts is ideal. That brought 12 of the 15 winners from marginally over 50% of the total runners. I feel in light of this GIFTED GAMBLE 8/1 with 16 career races has to be too exposed and vulnerable to lighter raced types. I feel the same about WISE DENNIS (8 starts) and BEAVER PATROL (12 Starts). Whether you feel that Joseph Henry (7 races) and Cool Panic ( 7 races) would be treated unfairly if eliminated on that statistic as they have raced just once more than is ideal is another matter.

SALAMANCA 8/1 is a Filly. That concerns me as does the fact she has already contested Group Class before. Thats not the ideal profile here. I also dont like the fact that every winner of this race , that had ran already this season ran within 15 days. That for me is the key statistic to open this race up. I think you need either a) a Seasonal Debutant or b) a Horse that ran within 15 days. In the last 15 years the record of horses that did not meet those 2 requirements was 1 from 80. Thats a very dismal performance. It highlights the requirement of fitness in this race. That 1 from 80 statistic looks really solid. 7 of them were beaten favourites. A Massive 22 of them started under 9/1 . The only winner was in 2002 and that horse (Serieux) was one of 7 horses that year that didnt have a recent race. The only seasonal debutants this year are HAUNTING MEMORIES 5/1 and the rank outsider FOXHAVEN at 20/1 and as there record is strong they have to be considered strongly. I am inclined to stay with horses that ran within 15 days or those having their first races this year. Doing this would have found the winner in 2004 , 2003, 2001 , 2000, 1999, 1998 and 1997. If you concentrate on these types , that were not over exposed you come down to the following: Goodricke 7/2, Joseph Henry 9/2, Haunting Memories 5/1, St Andrews Storm 10/1 and Foxhaven 20/1.
GOODRICKE , JOSEPH HENRY , FOXHAVEN and ST ANDREWS STORM have all ran in Group Class before which isnt ideal leaving
the Micheal Jarvis debutant HAUNTING MEMORIES 5/1 as one of the best profiles in the race. This was always a well regarded juvenile by Jarvis who has his string in great form. He had the horse entered in the Dewhurst and the Champagne stakes as a 2 year old . He is a soft ground winner. He is a York winner having won at the Ebor meeting. I like his chance. I also like COOL PANIC a bit as well. Although he has not ran within 15 days (Failing the strongest trend) he has ran twice and that could make the difference as he is will strip fitter than many that tried to win this without a very recent run. He also comes from the right Class of race and the fact his trainer insinuates that he has been laid out for this race is a positive. Overall marginal preference for HAUNTING MEMORIES . Although a debutant hasnt won since 1998 this is the smallest ever field and he has a strong profile. I would also save on Cool Panic. He wouldnt be statistically as good but there are sound reasons to fancy him as well .


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York 2:30 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m2½f (1m2f88y)

Evs Mona Lisa, 9/4 Quickfire, 6/1 Secret History, 8/1 Play Me, 12/1 Fuerta Ventura, 50/1 Treble Seven,

The Musidora has cut up but we have a good Negative in Quickfire. David tells me the horse is not yet ready to win in his opinion. She has not yet come in her coat and her work hasnt been great. She works with Seven Magicians which if you remember was the Stoute horse I gave as a Negative on Saturday in the Lingfield Oaks Trial that is not that smart. Seven Magicians was beaten 6 lengths at Lingfield and David is convinced that Quickfire should not be backed in this race. The biggest reservation about opposing her is the small field but when Milnes is adamant a horse is not ready We have to take notice of that. Statistically the race is a dead loss. No angles at all to prosper from. The fact MONA LISA was heavily backed for the Oaks yesterday suggests there is stable confidence in her and she looks the most likely winner. She looks highly likely to need the race though and I think the fact she was made 14/1 for the Fillies Mile last year suggests she is nothing special. I wonder whether SECRET HISTORY isnt going to spring a surprise. She has just made the progression fromHandicapper to being placed in Listed class and although this is another step up in class , she may well improve for the step up in trip and she has battling qualities and has a huge edge in fitness on the rest of them. Johnston inproves these types beyond belief at times. The main suggestion though is the negative about Quickfire. The rest is just a guess. Obvioulsy MONA LISA is the most likely winner , but with Quickfire being a negative I think SECRET HISTORY could be the bet at 13/2 . She is after all proven on soft ground which is more than Quickfire or Mona Lisa can claim.

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York 3:00 - Duke of York Hearthstead Homes Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) 46f

9/2 Patavellian, 5/1 Royal Millennium, 11/2 Orientor, Striking Ambition, 6/1 La Cucaracha, Somnus, 10/1 Steenberg, 12/1 Welsh Emperor, 16/1 The Kiddykid, 33/1 Fayr Jag, Goldeva

The statistics worked out superbly in this race last year. If you can remember the stats screamed only 2 horses. They were Monsieur Bond who won at 4/1 and STEENBERG (who I made a small account bet at 14/1) was an unlucky runner up . More about Steenberg later. LA CUCARACHA 6/1 would be the least experienced ever winner of this. She is also a Filly. She hasnt the best draw either (stall 11) and rated 101 she would be the lowest ever winner on ratings as no horse has won this rated 106 or below. She is a negative. The fact she is inexperienced is a strong trend, but on the other end of the experience scale, you dont want a horse thats had over 20 career starts. I would ignore that statistic. The 1996 and 2001 winners were quite recent and most of the very experienced horses were big prices. The front 3 in
the betting are not ideal types for this. PATAVELLIAN 9/2 would be the joint oldest winner and his age group have poor records and he is pretty exposed. As an exposed 7 year old ROYAL MILLENNIUM and ORIENTOR are all in exactly the same boat . I dont fancy SOMNUS. He was 7th in this race last year on his seasonal debut. Today , again as a seasonal debutant he has to carry a Group 1 penalty in
this race , and thats never been done before. If you look at his record of wins it does suggest that he might be an Autumn horse and I think we will see the best of him later in the year. The 3 I like best are STRIKING AMBITION, WELSH EMPEROR and STEENBERG. I think the stableform of Mark Tompkins is very worrying and that puts me off STEENBERG. He attempts to go one better this year but He has
missed the prep race he had for this in 2004 at Haydock. I make it between STRIKING AMBITION and WELSH EMPEROR. I Think I would just favour STRIKING AMBITION. He has a strong profile. He is the right age and has the right exposure. I also think that there must be every chance that Roger Charlton can improve him. He has gone from Gyles Bravery to Charlton and thats a serious upgrade in
stable .WELSH EMPEROR must also have an excellent chance. He was only beaten 3 lengths in this race last year and he has had an extra prep race this year and he will love the ground. I think both horses are overpriced and could easily win this race.


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York 3.35 - Theripleycollection.com Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+,0-95) 1m4f

9/2 Cruise Director, 6/1 Zeitgeist, 7/1 Jonathan Josh, Lets Roll, Pagan Dance, 10/1 Gold Ring, Peak Of Perfection, Trust Rule, 14/1 Grampian, 16/1 Barking Mad, 20/1 Vaughan, 25/1 Loves Travelling, 33/1 Annambo, Mirjan

JONATHAN JOSH 7/1 is an interesting runner but he looks a bit inexperienced. Last years winner Balkan Knight won this with 5 starts and Johnathan Josh has had 5 starts but the 1-30 record does suggest its not ideal especially as he is a seasonal debutant and that hasnt happened since 1992. VAUGHAN 20/1 also looks underexposed. With 8 of the runners having their Seasonal debut it remains to be seen if they can manage to win a rare renewal. They are strong in numbers. The record of 4 and 5 year olds are best. I strongly feel we should stay with that age group. Taking that age group , I think ZEITGEIST makes the most appeal. He didnt look ready to do himself justice last time
and needed the race. He sails through every statistic and should be one of the fitter horses in the race.

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OTHER MEETINGS

Lack of statistics is a problem at Brighton and Newcastle. The opening 2 maidens at Newcastle (6.15/6.45) are full of unlknownfactors and both are very busy betting heats. In the 6.15 there has been a big Gamble on KINGS REVENGE overnight and Ican understand why some fancy him and GUADALOUP Who was 33/1 in the Post has been backed down to 8/1 . In that 6.45I would have firmly been against the older horse Sir Loin at 9/2 on the weight for age he gives away but there have only been 2 renewals of this race and last year a 4 year old won and that worry be enough for me to consider that I may be wrong. Quite happy to ignore both races as plenty of things are happening in both races in the market and so much is unknown about the runners.

Having served up 2 dangerous maidens , Newcastle then offers 3 big field handicaps and I feel without any trends in any of the 3races they are simply too hard to get involved with . I did quite like the look of SIMPLIFY at 8/1 in the 8.15 race but Karl Burke is on my Axis Of Evil race and the races are so open that they may be best ignored.

In the last race at Newcastle I watched a few videos hoping to get some sort of insight into another tough handicap and I have to say SOUND AND VISION impressed me most. He was behind todays favourite UNCLE BULGARIA last time and was badly hampered and stopped in his run several times. It isnt clear whether he would have beaten Uncle Bulgaria who was runner up las time but he was caused significant interference and my gut feeling was that he is the most interesting runner at 7/1 .



Brighton 2.10 - 5/4 Cape Unknown, 7/4 Height Of Glory, 8/1 Look Of Eagles, 10/1 Flying Dancer, 16/1 Smokey The Bear,

LOOK OF EAGLES has been heavily backed from 8/1 to 4/1 and Paul Coles runner appears fancied. Few problems for her. Although there have been only 4 renewals , we know that Horses with just 1 race were 0-11 and Fillies were just 1-20. I wouldnt consider that a good statistic and would be happy to ignore it. Two of the runner ups in the past 4 races had ran just once and other fillies went close. I Cant have a female newcomer (Smokey The Bear 16/1) and FLYING DANCER is just too exposed failing to win all of her last 10 races. Statistically you would have to say HEIGHT OF GLORY is the strongest runner if he can put a dissapointing run behind him. He is the best in statistically but you do have to respect the market move for LOOK OF EAGLES and CAPE UNKNOWN hasnt much wrong with his profile either and is powerfully owned by people who willdemand a win from him soon . The market says LORD OF EAGLES. My stats say HEIGHT OF GLORY but my Gut says CAPE UNKNOWN .


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Brighton 3.10 - 9/4 Jomus, 3/1 Warlingham, 6/1 Tipo, Yamato Pink, 7/1 Fulvio, 10/1 Jahia, 20/1 Dreams Of Zena, 25/1 Wilom, 50/1 Almara,

Pretty Messy race. The stats are quite poor based on only 3 renewals and its one of those typical Brighton "whose turn is it today" selling races. The only thing I would be quite confident of saying is that TIPO is unlikely to be fit enough to win. All 21 horses that had less than 3 starts that year were beaten. TIPO has ran just once, and badly. Although he won first time out as a 2 year old I still think he will get beaten.WARLINGHAM and YAMATO PINK are closely matched on recent brighton form. My gut feeling is YAMATO PINK may well come out in front today but I wouldnt oppose JOMUS who I think is the most consistent of these are by far the most solid. I think he wins this on any
number of recent runs and I will be surprised if he is beaten. I think in an each way double he is excellent but I also think he should outclass this regressive opposition.

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Brighton 4.55 - 9/4 Kernel Dowery, 3/1 Saucy, 7/2 Gurrun, 6/1 Wild Pitch, 12/1 Bundaberg, 14/1 Mr Whizz, 20/1 Lillianna, 25/1 Ophistrolie

I think this race is shaping up into a 3 horse race between Kernal Dowry , Saucy and GURRUN and I think 4/1 each way about GURRUN is the percentage call. His last run showed a return to form and the race is working out well. He was 4th at Brighton over todays course and distance 2 weeks ago. That was a better race than this. The winner (Fly To Dubai) has come out and ran 2nd in a better handicap at Beverley. The 3rd (Oakley Absolute) came out and won at Nottingham and The 5th (Courageously) came out and won at Warwick. There was a gap back to 5th last time and GURRUN looks pretty solid to me without being a certainty.


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Today's Stats

York 1.30 - 14 renewals and 149 runners (Newton Investment Management Stakes)
York 1.30 - Horses aged 8 or more havent won (0-5) . 10 of the 14 races went to 4 year olds whilst 5 year olds are 0-28
York 1.30 - Claiming jockeys are 0-13
York 1.30 - Less than 5 career starts are 0-12
York 1.30 - 8st 6lbs and less are just 1-38

York 2.00 - 15 renewals and 227 runners (williamhillpoker.com Stakes)
York 2.00 - 13 of more career starts are 0-13 as 3 or 4 previous races are best (8-64)
York 2.00 - Colts (13-172) are twice as likely to win as fillies (2-55)
York 2.00 - Horses that lost by 6 or more lengths last time out are just 1-93
York 2.00 - Claiming jockeys are 0-21
York 2.00 - Horses that had ran in Group class before are just 1-36 (Group 3 runner)
York 2.00 - Horses that didnt win in their last 6 races are 1-43
York 2.00 - 9 of the last 12 winners were Drawn no higher than 5
York 2.00 - Seasonal debutants are fine, but from the 12 winners that had ran this year , 11 ran within 15 days (0thers 1-80)
York 2.00 - Horses coming from Class E, F or G are 0 from 15
York 2.00 - Horses coming from Class C or D won 13 of the 15 races (others 2-64)
York 2.00 - Barry Hills is 3-15 and won 2 of the last 3 renewals

York 2.30 - 14 renewals and 85 runners ( Musidora Stakes )
York 2.30 - Horses at 8/1 and over are 1-38
York 2.30 - Seasonal debutants (6-27) and those that ran twice this season (4-19) beat those raced once (4-39)

York 3.00 - 14 renewals and 160 runners (Duke of York Hearthstead Homes Stakes )
York 3.00 - The race was upgraded from Listed to Group 3 status in 1997 and to Group 2 in 2003
York 3.00 - Less than 9 career starts is 1-42 as 9-20 races are best (11-65) . Those with 21 + races underperform (2-53)
York 3.00 - The only winner with less than 9 starts (1994) went on to win a Group 1 July Cup
York 3.00 - 4 and 5 year olds are best (11-96) as horses aged 6 or more underperform (1-33)
York 3.00 - You want a horse thats ran in Group 1 class before (10-73) and not those ran in Group 2 or 3 but never Group 1 (1-59)
York 3.00 - The only horse to have ran in Group 2 or 3 but never Group 1 was the brilliant Lake Conniston who went on and won a July Cup.
York 3.00 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 1-56
York 3.00 - Horses coming from 5f are just 1-45 and that winner had already won a Group 1 race before
York 3.00 - Horses coming from a Handicap are 1-19
York 3.00 - There have been 36 horses that had draws in stalls 10 or above since 1991. None managed to win and only 3 placed
York 3.00 - The Full Draw of the first 3 places is 3-12-1, 6-1-4 , 8-10-4 , 5-4-9, 8-1-2, 3-5-4 , 1-4-9 , 9-4-7, 4-2-7, 8-7-5 , 5-14-9
York 3.00 - Since the official ratings scale changed in 1997 no horse has won this rated 106 or below
York 3.00 - Side with horses that have either a) ran in a Group 1 race or b) Not ran in a Group Race before.
What you want in this race is either a) a horse that has been deemed good enough to run at Group 1 level at some stage of his career or b) a
runner that has so far been untested at Group Class level and that has come from Listed class and needs to step up in class. These
two types seem to win this race and they seem to beat the "exposed" horses that had ran in Group 2 and Group 3 races who seem
to have already found their class level.

York 3.35 - 15 renewals and 214 runners (theripleycollection.com Handicap )
York 3.35 - Less than 7 career starts is 1-30 as 7-12 starts are best (6-48) with 7-20 starts also fine (11-99)
York 3.35 - Seasonal debutants (2-46) underperform as 2 races this year are best (6-42)
York 3.35 - Seasonal debutants are 0-39 since 1992 and 1991 and the 1991 debutant was among 6 newcomers in a 10 runner race
York 3.35 - Horses aged 7 or more are 1-29 . Only 2 horses aged 6 won. One was back in 1992 and tbe other very well handicapped.
York 3.35 - Fillies are just 1-28
York 3.35 - Claiming jockeys are just 1-34
York 3.35 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 1-123
York 3.35 - Horses aged 4 and 5 are best (13-156) .
York 3.35 - Horses carrying 8st 6lbs or less are just 1-56 and only Gralmano in 2002 has won and he was won off a 12lbs higher mark after.
York 3.35 - There is a definate edge to horses that are drawn 10 and under.

Brighton 2.10 - 4 renewals and 45 runners
Brighton 2.10 - Seasonal debutants (0-16) and 1 race this year (0-11) underperform as all 4 winners ran twice that year (4-10)
Brighton 2.10 - Less than 2 career starts is 0-8. More than 6 career starts are 0-14
Brighton 2.10 - Horses older than 3 are 0-11
Brighton 2.10 - Fillies are 1-20
Brighton 2.10 - Horses at 8/1 and over are 0-31

Brighton 3.10 - 3 renewals and 44 runners
Brighton 3.10 - Horses that ran over 31 days ago are 0-10
Brighton 3.10 - 3 year olds were 0-6
Brighton 3.10 - Horses that ran at less than 7f last time are 0-15
Brighton 3.10 - Less than 3 races this season are 0-21

Brighton 3.45 - There are 2 identical races each month at Brighton totalling 14 renewals and 136 runners
Brighton 3.45 - So far no horse withover 20 races has won but only 6 tried
Brighton 3.45 - Horses with just 1 race this year underperform (1-25)
Brighton 3.45 - Horses that ran in Class A or B before score well (4-19)
Brighton 3.45 - Horses that ran 48 + days ago are 1-27

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