Account Bets


No Bet

Just come out of a poor weak and I just want to take stock today and have a breather. Need to get back ahead of schedule so a Blank betting day . The fields are getting bigger at the moment so I need to take care before betting. Its one of those days where some safe each way doubles to small stakes will provide some interest without risking too much capital. I think Active Audience 7/1 (2.20) is overpriced and value. I think Guardiaro (5.40)
each way at 3/1 is potentially the best bet of the day. Dee Day (3.10) is another excellent each way double option. These 3 horses at 7/1 3/1 and 3/1 in each way doubles would be the best I can find on a day I really wanted to skip over and regroup on.


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Todays Racing

Musselburgh 2.20 - 13/8 Quadrophenia, 5/2 Twinned, 9/2 Active Audience, 7/1 Mandarin Rocket, 8/1 Bahamian Duke, 25/1 Dispol Samurai, 33/1 Little Elver, 50/1 Compton Lad, Stanley Wolfe

The fact that ACTIVE AUDIENCE is trained by Alan Berry is enough to give anyone serious doubts but there is no doubt She has by far the best profile here.These "auction" races are determined by Sales Price. The Cheaper horses get the lighter weights. Fillies are usually Cheaper. They get the Sex allowance as well.

Fillies are therefore usually carrying less weight. There is no doubt that from Musselburgh, and from all tracks that Fillies have a better record than Colts as do
lightweights. In todays race QUADROPHENIA 13/8 and ACTIVE AUDIENCE 4/1 are the fillies with the best chances. Its also true that having more than 1 race is an advantage. Certainly in this particular race we havent seen a winner thats run just once before but in ALL Similar races they win just 11% of the races from 22 of the runners so it is a disadvantage. With QUADROPHENIA I Feel I want to oppose her. Yes she is excellent as a light weighted filly but almost every female winner had more races. The record of females with just 1 race is poor in these races (1-38) . I feel despite the fact Alan Berry trains Active
Audience 9/2 its hard to disguise what a superb profile she has. Favoured strongly under race conditions as a filly. Favoured as both a lightweight and a horse thats ran several times. The fact she comes from a Handicap isnt an issue. She is clearly the best profile in the race. If she was trained by a better trainer then confidence would be high. I think anything around evens is value "Place only" and that may be the way to go. ACTIVE AUDIENCE is 7/1 on Betfair and I think that is great value each way notwithstanding the Alan Berry factor and the fact she is weak in the betting.

Just a few thoughts without delving too deeply . Looking at some of the races that cant be sorted with confidence but may have a few angles you should consider before a bet. In the Musselburgh 2.50 , This wouldnt be a race to trust statistically and some of these old rogues are too long in the tooth to take for granted, and the field size on a track like this doesnt give me much confidence. Its a race I want to leave alone. If TRAINOS wins at 16/1 it wouldnt surprise me as he would not be as bad statistically as you may think. Definately no bet from me here.

A favourite that I think is vulnerable is THE TERRIER (Redcar 2.40) . She is a filly and this wouldnt really be a fillies race but I dont like the fact she has had 3
runs in a maiden and faces Handicap company for the first time. That isnt the best preperation for this. All 25 horses that had tried the same preperation had been beaten before her and horses coming from Maiden races dont score well in these races. I also feel that coming from a Class 6 maiden she may struggle as 11 of her rivals come from better class races and we have runners here coming from Class 2 and Class 3 races. I see her as Vulnerable. I would far rather consider the likes of DONT TELL SUE or THOUGHTSOFSTARDOM as better options.

The 2 divisions of the Maiden at Redcar (4.40 and 5.40) are interesting races. Both look "each way" races or each way double races. Barry Hills runs Sincerely (4.40) and Guardiaro (5.40) and both are similar prices at 7/2. Barry Hills has sent 2 horses to this race before and won with both and I like them both each way with preference for GUARDIARO who should be difficult to beat and 7/2 each way about him isnt a bad option. He must have a big chance, he will be hard to kick out of the placings and from 4 main runners he has an unraced filly (Kawn 15/8) to beat and a Haslam filly (Gildas Fortuns 8/1) who may be happy to get her handicap mark today. I think GUARDIARO each way at 7/2 is worth a bet.

I havent had time to look too closely at the Nursery at Musselburgh (3.50) and there are no clear negatives that you could rule anything out with confidence but MULTIPLE has a strong profile and with Fillies having a strong record in the race, and the fact shes run well recently when winning at Catterick recently must give her a reasonable chance but I havent seen too many of her rivals and I am only poining out her positive profile.

In the Maiden at 3.10 (Redcar) I think DEE DAY 11/4 has every chance of beating Regal Connection. Dee Day is well thought of and I liked him on Video last time . There are no angles to expolit. It is an extreme test for a juvenile but Dee Day is one of Bells best juveniles and I think he can beat the favourite. He would appeal in an each way double like many other horses today.


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Mondays Stats

Musselburgh 2.20 - Only 5 renewals but all winners had at least 2 starts. (Others 0-10).
Musselburgh 2.20 - All 16 horses foaled in late April and May lost
Musselburgh 2.20 - Fillies (4-19) won 4 of the 45 renewals. Colts were just 1-23 and this trends mirrored at all tracks
Musselburgh 2.20 - Horses from Handicaps are respected (2-4)
Musselburgh 2.20 - All winners carried between 8st 3lbs and 8st 10lbs

Musselburgh 2.50 - 7 identical races from all tracks and 5-20 runs is best (More than 20 runs just 2-47, less than 5 runs 0-6)
Musselburgh 2.50 - 2-5 starts this year is best. One race (0-4) is unproven but 6 or more starts is just 1-64
Musselburgh 2.50 - 3-4-5 year olds have tended to dominate. Older horses just 1-28 and 5 year olds come out best
Musselburgh 2.50 - Horses that hadnt raced in Class 3 or more are 0-30
Musselburgh 2.50 - Fillies are just 1-21
Musselburgh 2.50 - Horses carrying less than 9st are 1-67

Musselburgh 3.20 - 6 past renewals and 37 runners
Musselburgh 3.20 - Debutants are fine (1-4) but onceraced horses are 0-11
Musselburgh 3.20 - All 6 winners ran in the last month and were under 4/1 and finished 1-2-3-4-5 last time out if they had ran before
Musselburgh 3.20 - In all track maidens , a run within 7 days is 0-23

Musselburgh 3.20 - Thee have been no Class 2 Mile Nurserys in September so Class 3 races are used for "unsafe" guidance
Musselburgh 3.20 - Just 2 or 3 career races are weak (1-39)
Musselburgh 3.20 - Horses that ran in Listed or Group class before are 0-24
Musselburgh 3.20 - A Run within 7 days is best (6-31) and 48 + days ago 0-15
Musselburgh 3.20 - Fillies (12-93) lead Colts (6-96) and are twice as likely to win

Musselburgh 4.20 - Just 8 identical races at other tracks with 148 runners
Musselburgh 4.20 - Just 3 career runs (0-20) and 4 runs (1-19) are weak
Musselburgh 4.20 - Fillies (5-70) lead Colts (3-78)
Musselburgh 4.20 - Strangely enough all 8 races were "shocks" as horses that were 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time just 1-53
Musselburgh 4.20 - Horses dropping from 9f or more are 0-40 . Horses coming from 7f and under just 1-48
Musselburgh 4.20 - Horses from a Maiden are 0-27
Musselburgh 4.20 - 8st 11lbs or less is 1-70

Musselburgh 5.20 - 59 similar races at all tracks and 928 runners
Musselburgh 5.20 - 9yrs old or older is 0-30. 3 year olds can win but 4 and 5 year olds are better
Musselburgh 5.20 - Every winner had ran in at least Class 4 before (0-35) but those that ran in listed race or higher are 0-38
Musselburgh 5.20 - Horses that raced at 6f or less are just 1-69
Musselburgh 5.20 - Horses coming from a Claiming race are just 1-76

Redcar 2.40 - 12 renewals and 166 runners
Redcar 2.40 - 2 runs is fine (2-5) but 3 runs are 0-25 and 7 + runs weak as well 1-47
Redcar 2.40 - Horses foaled in May are 0-22
Redcar 2.40 - Horses that didnt run within 31 days are 1-30
Redcar 2.40 - Horses that ran within 7 days are just 1-25
Redcar 2.40 - Colts (8-78) lead Fillies (4-88)
Redcar 2.40 - 5lbs and 7lbs claimers are 0-34
Redcar 2.40 - You must have been at least 4th in your last 6 runs (others 0-28)
Redcar 2.40 - Horses from Class 6 (0-23) and Class 7 (0-13) underperform
Redcar 2.40 - Horses from a Maiden are just 1-26
Redcar 2.40 - 9st 7lbs or more is 0-12 . 7st 13lbs or less 0-31

Redcar 3.40 - 36 all track renewals and 533 runners
Redcar 3.40 - 1 race this year is 0-25
Redcar 3.40 - Horses that ran in Listed class or better are 1-25
Redcar 3.40 - 9st 7lbs or more have a very poor 1-96 record

Redcar 4.10 - Only 7 similar races on all tracks with 105 runners
Redcar 4.10 - 3 year olds are 0-35
Redcar 4.10 - Horses that ran in Class 3 or higher before are 1-41
Redcar 4.10 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 1-48

Redcar 4.40 - 10 renewals and 105 runners (Division 1)
Redcar 4.40 - Any number of runs can win but 4-12 are best (6-32)
Redcar 4.40 - Just 1 race this year is 0-17 and 6 + runs just 1-18
Redcar 4.40 - 3 year olds are best (others 1-25)
Redcar 4.40 - Horses that ran in Class 2 but no higher before are 3-6
Redcar 4.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-69
Redcar 4.40 - Horses that have not been at least 3rd before are 0-37
Redcar 4.40 - Horses from a Handicap are just 1-17
Redcar 4.40 - Northern runners struggle (2-65)

Redcar 5.10 - 10 renewals and 152 runners
Redcar 5.10 - Less than 9 career starts (0-19) and less than 20 (1-49) underperform
Redcar 5.10 - Less than 9 career races this season is 0-56
Redcar 5.10 - Horses from Ayr are 0-26
Redcar 5.10 - 3 year olds are just 1-40
Redcar 5.10 - You want a run within 31 days (others 0-40)
Redcar 5.10 - You want a horse thats ran in at least Class 2 before (others 1-76)
Redcar 5.10 - You want a 1-2-3 placing in your last 6 starts (others 1-40)
Redcar 5.10 - Horses from Class 6 are 0-29

Redcar 5.40 - 10 renewals and 105 runners (Division 2)
Redcar 5.40 - Just 1 race this year is 0-17 and 6 + runs just 1-18
Redcar 5.40 - Any number of runs can win but 4-12 are best (6-32)
Redcar 5.40 - 3 year olds are best (others 1-25)
Redcar 5.40 - Horses that ran in Class 2 but no higher before are 3-6
Redcar 5.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-69
Redcar 5.40 - Horses that have not been at least 3rd before are 0-37
Redcar 5.40 - Horses from a Handicap are just 1-17
Redcar 5.40 - Northern runners struggle (2-65)

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