Account Bet


No Account Bet

All in all I am fascinated by the 4.10 at Taunton where I have just had a small £1000-80 bet on Wimbledonian at 12/1 .
Full Stats and explanation below. There are a couple of other mentions today but thats my only bet.

Possible other bets

Manorson - Taunton 1.40 - Small win bet
Blue Business - Taunton 3.10 + Cordial - Lingfield 2.30 - Each Way Double
Wimbledonian - Taunton 4.10 - Each Way 12/1 Corals
Lincoln - Royal Guard 12/1 Ante Post

Next Message Tomorrow .


*********************
*********************

Talking Points

* ADMIN ISSUES

a) The 0871 LINE for those unable to access computers during the day is now in opertaion again. The number is 0871 433 3497 but there is now

a New Pin Code to access this line. This Code is now 1 5 5 5 5 then the Hash Key. Any Problems let me know.

b) I have a new home phone number following my moving house. My old number now doesnt work. If anyone wants or needs my home number

then e mail me and I will send it you via e mail. My Mobile number hasnt changed.

c) All Account Bets will continue to be sent FREE via SMS Message to Mobiles. Hugely popular service. If you are not in, just let me know and I

will add you straight away. It doesnt cost you a penny and its reliable and ensures you have the best chance of top prices on all bets.

d) Members in the Statistics Service Only are being sent all Main Service E Mails for February by way of compensation for missing out on 2

weeks of statistics during my house move.


* ANTE POST PORTFOLIO

Very soon the whole focus on Ante Post Betting changes. February-April is a fantastic time for Ante Post gamblers. Its Spring time, a time for

optimism , we will have felt like we have just left a crappy wet winter behind us and the betting for the Cheltenham Festival, the Lincoln and the

Classics are always fascinating and full of future promise. I Hate betting. I Hate Tipping but one of the few pleasures I get in this Billious game is

springtime and Ante Post lists. As its the right time of year I am going to dedicate a lot of column inches towards Ante Post betting. When I want

to play as an Account Bet I will, you have to be quite carefull that horses will run in the said races but Over the course of the next couple of

months I want to look at a number of Ante Post horses and give some thoughts. The Full Analysis of each race, and the Detailed Stats of these

races can wait . There is no prizes given for being the first to bet and it is too early. However a few observations I have about certain races wont

put you far wrong if you are attempting to build a solid ante post portfolio going into Cheltenham and beyond.

The 2 horses today I have spotted as interesting are a Negative and a Positive. I Think that in the Triumph Hurdle , (March 18th) the

favouriteAKILAK at 8/1 is a horse you should consder laying. I also think that in the Lincoln (April 2nd) ROYAL GUARD is a positive.

AKILAK is 8/1 favourite for the Triumph and I dont like him at all. You can lay 10.5 on Betfair and I think thats a great lay with almost 7 weeks

to go to the festival. One of the main reasons why I dislike him is that he has just won at Cheltenham in the Wragg&co Finesse hurdle. There is a

strong argument to think that he is not going to win the Triumph. Horses that run in the Finesse hurdle have a very poor record at Cheltenham. In

fact no horse has ever done the Finesse Hurdle -Triumph hurdle double. It is a Graveyard trial . I Also dont like the fact that AKILAK has only

had 1 race over jumps. If he goes to Cheltenham with just 1 start he will be asked to do the impossible. Inexperience must count against him.

There have been 34 horses that have tried this since 1991 and none have managed to defy experience and win. Even if they give him another race

which is entirely possible then that increases his chances of injury, or dissapointing or them discovering that he isnt good . Compound that with the

fact he has to get there in a healthy state and if he does he will face up to 30 runners in the race, I think 10.5 is a very solid lay if you dont mind

tying money up for a few weeks. He wont win the race for me on any known evidence.

ROYAL GUARD is 12/1 favourite for the Lincoln and that may well be worth taking. Admittedly the Draw has a lot to do with the Lincoln but

you should be able to get out well before the draw with a free bet. ROYAL GUARD is trained by John Hammond in France and has been

backed from 20/1 to 12/1 already. Those factors suggest he will run. Statistically you need a Male horse thats rated under 100 (He is rated 93)
and rated over 80 . Your horse has to have been placed last time out (He won last time) and he needs to be aged 6 or less. ROYAL GUARD fits

all those criteria and he is likely to be in the perfect weight range if he lines up. It is hugely significant that John Hammond even brings him to

Doncaster. Hammond has a brilliant record with his French raiders . His record is second to none and a big profit is recorded by his runners.

Horses like Crystal Castle and Ratio in the Wokingham are just recent example. ROYAL GUARD is a lightly raced horse that could be anything.

Lightly raced horses are fine in the race and Hammond would not bring him here unless he felt he had a well handicapped classy horse capable of

winning a Lincoln. I would Think that 12/1 represents a very big price for a horse that will have few if any statistical flaws on the day. I have had

£50 on ROYAL GUARD just in case his price collapses. I did think of having £500 on him with a view to laying him back but I felt that was a bit

risky as he hasnt been officially confirmed as a runner yet and I could lose that way. On the day I'll be delighted with £50 at 12/1.


Ante Post Portfolio - (These are not account bets)

Triumph Hurdle - Akilak - Lay 8/1
Lincoln - Royal Guard - Bet 12/1


*********************
*********************

Todays Racing


Suggested bets for anyone wanting to play

Manorson - Taunton 1.10 - Small win bet
Blue Business - Taunton 3.10 + Cordial - Lingfield 2.30 - Each Way Double
Wimbledonian - Taunton 4.10 - Each Way 12/1 Corals
Il Pranzo - Lingfield 4.10 - Small win bet

If You recall before the House Move I started SCORING Statistics using a scoring system . The Current record of these horses showed
a Level Stakes Profit of £8.38 . These Statistical Scores are popular within the membership so I will continue them, but I must stress that they are

not account bets, merely a short trial to see if they are succesful . These are below at the foot of the message. The statistics reccomend 2 bets

today on Manorson (1.40) and Blue Business (3.10) at Taunton. Please dont confuse these with Account Bets.

Not an easy day today . Starting at TAUNTON first in the opener. MANORSON is statistically bombproof as you will see from the statistical

scores later in the message. He is a Male horse. Lambourn trained. The right age , the right Class profile and Pilot. He is perfectly exposed with

just 2 races and his weight identifies him as the Class runner. Yes he is short but he has no statistical flaws. You would have to prefer him over

WAVETREE BOY who classy as he was on the flat, has never jumped a hurdle in public and who has to face a 492 days absence. WAVETREE

BOY may also need further than this 2m 1f and although He was rated 100 on the flat this may find him out . He does however look a more likely

winner than the other debutant THE PLAYER who was rated 28lbs his inferior. There has been good money for THE PLAYER (10/1-13/2) but

that may have much to do with A P McCoy riding. Be aware that his sire is 0-17 with his jumpers so far and none of his offspring have yet won.

With the fact MANORSON was a better Flat horse , It has to be MANORSON but I dont advise bets at his likely price and I cant see anything

I would want to bet against him each way.


*********

I Think Division 2 of the Novice Hurdle (2.10 Taunton) may be left to NOBLE REQUEST at 5/2 . This is clearly a 5 runner race according to the

betting. The favourite PERFECT STORM is unraced and Statistics tell me that you are FAR Better off having a horse like NOBLE REQUEST
Who has ran 5 times before than you are an unraced horse. If you look at all Taunton Novice Hurdles between January and April you will see a

far better strike rate for experienced horses. At distances of 2m 4f or less unraced horses are only 8 from 112 (and 7 of those 8 winners were

younger horses that Perfect Storm) . Horses that had ran 5-6 times are easily superior and have won 11 races from 71 runners , thats 3 more

winners from 41 fewer runners. Of course PERFECT STORM may be better and may win today, but statistically you have to side with the more

experienced horse in NOBLE REQUEST and you have other factors in your favour as well. He has been very well backed overnight . Despite a

gruelling race last time at Towcester when he finished tired I would think that if he has recovered from that he could place his experience to good

use. Opposing PERFECT STORM because he is unraced suggests we should also steer clear of the other fancied unraced horse ILE FACILE .
I have this between NOBLE REQUEST and possibly WISCALITUS who at 6/1 may well be a sensible Saver.

*********

The other statistical pick is BLUE BUSINESS in the 3.10 Taunton. I Am not so sure about him. The Statistics place him clear ahead of the field

because mainly thats down to the overrating of Bumper winners like ROARINGWATER who usually get beaten when meeting decent hurdlers.

This year it may be diffferent as BLUE BUSINESS has a serious rival in ROARINGWATER who won a Bumper over 17f . That must have

been an inadequate trip for him as he is bred to stay marathon distances as a son of Roselier out of a daughter of Buckskin, and having won a 3m

point to point before.

With the National Hunt at the moment by strateg is simple. If the statistics show me a CAST IRON reason why I have to bet a horse then I will. If

they dont then I wont be drawn into assumptions and guesswork and I am happy to leave the code alone. With todays Stats , I feel that the best

options would be to have a small win bet on MANORSON , and to play BLUE BUSINESS in an each way double. Although the stats suggest a

win bet , BLUE BUSINESS could drift in the market in the wake of support for ROARINGWATER and I feel 11/4 is possible. Thats not a bad

each way double option. The race is very uncompetetive and its very hard to see BLUE BUSINES being unplaced.

*********

Looking at the right horse to place BLUE BUSINESS with in an each way double I think CORDIAL at Lingfield is the horse.

Lingfield 12.30 - Betting Forecast: 9/4 Cordial, 3/1 The Violin Player, 7/1 Garden Society, 8/1 Dovedon Hero, Mad Carew, Salute, 14/1 Tight

Squeeze, 16/1 Classic Croco, 25/1 Amir Zaman, Malibu, 33/1 Orthodox, 50/1 Spring Surprise.

We bet CORDIAL last time courtesy of David and he won well. David was saying he was a 12f horse that was potentially capable of running up a

sequence. Last time he got away with it over 10f and showed guts and determination. Some may say that Cordial isnt certain to stay 12f , as he

was beaten easily at Evens at southwell , and was again a beaten favourite at Salisbury on his only 2 attempts at the distance. That was some time

ago and he is a better stronger horse now and is ridden differently. I think he will stay easily and although David hasnt given me any news about the

horse at all , I feel it would be a mistake to desert this horse as I can see him improving several lbs now he has won and moves up in trip. I Think

that at around 5/2 he makes perfect sense in an each way double with BLUE BUSINESS. Both should easily place. Both can easily win as well.


*********

I Think the 4.10 at Taunton is interesting. There have only been 9 renewals of this race but the Following statistics is very eye catching.


Betting Forecast: 9/2 Cimmaroon, 6/1 The Flyer, 13/2 Lowe Go, 7/1 Wild Chimes, 8/1 Delaware Bay, Teorban, 10/1 Twisted Logic, 12/1

Wimbledonian, 14/1 Emphatic, Roman Court, Stock Dove, 16/1 Javelin, 25/1 Big Max, Turaath, 33/1 Field Master, Graffiti Tongue,

* Horses that had 9 or more starts surprisingly struggled (1-64)

When you consider this is always a big field handicap run over a Marathon distance you may well have thought that experienced horses had the

edge but they dont. For only 1 of the "experienced" horses (Those with 9 or more starts over Hurdles) to win this from 64 that tried is quite a

Damming statistic. From these 64 horses , there were 26 of them that started under 10/1 in this race. In fact 29 of the 64 losing horses started in

the first 4 in the betting that year. That is quite strong. It suggests to me that you want a lightly raced horse that can now show improvement at the

trip and who improves past non-progressive types that have had their ability accurately assesed.

When you look at the statistics of this race a little more deeply and study that1 from 64 statistic , it shows that the only winner was in 1999 . That

horse had only had 11 Hurdle races anyway so was hardly "experienced" . In the year that he defied that stat the vast majority of the field had also

racked up multiple runs so it may have been a statistical blip anyway. This leads me to believe that you MUST Side with lightly raced horses that

have had fewer than 9 career starts over hurdles.

If we look at the very "exposed runners we can identify 7 horses that look "too exposed" for this test.

Twisted Logic 10/1 - 50 races
Emphatic 14/1 - 34 races
The Flyer 12/1 - 29 races
Javelin 201 - 23 races
Lowe Go 8/1 - 15 races
Teorban 14/1 - 15 races
Delaware Bay 7/1 - 12 races


The Ideal number of races are clearly between 5 and 8 and the race has been dominated by 6 and 7 year olds. We find just 3 horses that can be

said to be the right age and to have had the right preperation/exposure for this test

WIMBLEDONIAN - 12/1 has had 5 races

WILD CHIMES - 12/1 has had 5 races
STOCK DOVE - 25/1 has had 7 races
CIMMAROON - 13/2 has had 3 races

I Think you can argue that all 4 should be serioulsy considered. I Couldnt be confident about stating which had the best chance. Thats the problem

with 16 runner Handicaps but the point I am making is that you should serioulsy consider looking at these less exposed runners as its very hard to

justify why only 1 experienced horse could win this from 64 . The result should be fascinating. All in all having had a look at all 4 runners I have

come down on the side of WIMBLEDONIAN at 12/1 with Corals. I like him more than the other 3 but none of the 4 winning would surprise me.


*********

ALL WEATHER

I Have already dealt with CORDIAL (2.30) which I see as a small e/w double option. The rest of the Sand looks
detestable. I looked at the cards and I havent felt this sick since betting Gareth Gates at odds on to win X Factor.
I Have no interest at all in the sand cards.

I have said on the Message Board that things at David Loders are so unclear at the moment. I think the issues about Loder losing the Godolphin

juveniles, the fact that Loder is about as Popular in Newmarket as a Pork Chop at a Al Queda wedding , and the fact that Godolphin are

recruiting all the best Newmarket staff , often from Loders as they have about 500 horses in training , has put Loder under serious pressure. I

think David is incorporating a policy that comprises of "screw everyone I am looking after the people that matter". I think he is taking care of his

best staff and ensuring they get all the best information and I think he is taking care of his owners. I feel Loder is starting a deliberate policy of Miss

Information . When you want to spread a rumour thats wrong you tell the Village Gossip . People like David Milnes are the first point of call. If

Loder wants to spread the word . If he wants to put people away and mislead them he tells the Newmarket man with contacts to please and

newspaper column inches to write. He is having huge drifters win easily and having short priced horses beaten. The point of this is the big gamble

on LAUREN LOUISE (16/1 - 6/1) in the Lingfield 1pm race. You could not possibly fancy her on anything she has done before when trained by

Nigel Tinkler but the cash is down and this is a serious upgrade in stable quality. The problem here may very well be that even if you are convinced

the money is "hot" and you want to follow it in, you may very well find that the owners , angry and despondant that someone has spolit their price

for the sake of £100 on Betfair the night before , consider "Pulling" the horse and waiting for another day. Loders must be a brilliant place to work

at the moment if your face fits. All I know is that anyone that thinks they know what he is thinking at the moment is a very brave man and I feel

strongly inclined to swerve any races he is involved with at the moment .

*********************************
*********************************

Today's Stats


Taunton 1.40 - 23 Similar renewals and 279 runners
Taunton 1.40 - Avoid horses aged 7 or more as they are just 1-56
Taunton 1.40 - Horses must have ran in at least Class E before (others 1-25) and those that ran in Class B or higher excel (7-26)
Taunton 1.40 - Absences of 80 + days or more just 1-34
Taunton 1.40 - Horses that had fallen before havent done well. They just 1-68
Taunton 1.40 - Mares are fine but Fillies are 0-27
Taunton 1.40 - Horses ridden by Claiming jockeys are poor (1-68)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are just 1-200 as 20 of the 23 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite
Taunton 1.40 - Horses coming from Class G/H are 0-21
Taunton 1.40 - Horses coming from Handicaps (3-8) are interesting.
Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 5 or more career starts struggled (1-25) as 2 or 3 runs were best (10-85)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 2 races this year (9-58) are better than those with 1 (5-96) or the seasonal debutants (6-86)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses not trained in Lambourn are 0-31
Taunton 1.40 - Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more have a superb record (7-16)

Taunton 2.10 - 23 Similar renewals and 279 runners
Taunton 2.10 -Avoid horses aged 7 or more as they are just 1-56
Taunton 2.10 -Horses must have ran in at least Class 3 before (others 1-25) and those that ran in Class B or higher excel (7-26)
Taunton 2.10 -Absences of 80 + days or more just 1-34
Taunton 2.10 - Horses that had fallen before havent done well. They just 1-68
Taunton 2.10 - Mares are fine but Fillies are 0-27
Taunton 2.10 -Horses ridden by Claiming jockeys are poor (1-68)
Taunton 2.10 - Horses at 10/1 and over are just 1-200 as 20 of the 23 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite
Taunton 2.10 - Horses coming from Class G/H are 0-21
Taunton 2.10 -Horses coming from Handicaps (3-8) are interesting.
Taunton 2.10 - Horses with 5 or more career starts struggled (1-25) as 2 or 3 runs were best (10-85)
Taunton 2.10 - Horses with 2 races this year (9-58) are better than those with 1 (5-96) or the seasonal debutants (6-86)
Taunton 2.10 - Horses not trained in Lambourn are 0-31
Taunton 2.10 -Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more have a superb record (7-16)

Taunton 3:10 - 6 renewals and 76 runners
Taunton 3:10 - 7 year olds lead the way (5-25) as 5 year olds (0-10) are unproven and 6 year olds underperform (1-26) . 8yrs + are 0-12
Taunton 3:10 - All 15 female horses lost
Taunton 3:10 - Claiming jockeys underperform (1-19)
Taunton 3:10 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-56
Taunton 3:10 - You want to be 1-2-3 last time out. Others 0-51
Taunton 3:10 - Horses coming from Class F G H underperform (0-23)
Taunton 3:10 - Horses that ran at 2m 4f or less last time are 0-29
Taunton 3:10 - Lightly raced types dominate. Horses with 4 or more career starts are 0-30 . Those with just 1 previous race are best (2-9)
Taunton 3:10 - Seasonal debutants are 0-11

Taunton 4.10 - 9 renewals and 105 runners
Taunton 4.10 - 5 year olds are unproven (0-4) . Horses aged 6 and 7 dominate (7-41) as 8yrs (1-26) and 9yrs + (1-34) underperform
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that wear, or that have ever worn headgear before are 0-42
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that ran within 15 days are just 1-33
Taunton 4.10 - Horses at 12/1 and over are just 1-62
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that were 1-2-3-4 or fell last time are best. Those that completed but failed to be in the first 5 home are 0-32
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that had between 5 and 8 career starts dominated (8-34). All 7 that had less than 5 starts lost.
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that had 9 or more starts surprisingly struggled (1-64)
Taunton 4.10 - Seasonal debutants are fine (2-7) but 3 or 4 runs this year are best (5-52) . Those with 5 or more are 0-20
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that had never won a race before, or who has won just once are favoured (8-54). Those with 2 + wins just 1-51


*********************
*********************

Todays Statistical Scores

Taunton 3.10 BLUE BUSINESS 1pt
Taunton 1.40 MANORSON 1 pts

Advised Statistical Scoring Bets ( + £8.38)



Taunton 1:40 southwestracing.com Novices' Hurdle (Class E) (Div I) (4yo+) 2m1f

Betting Forecast: 4/5 Manorson, 4/1 Wavertree Boy, 7/1 Space Star, 10/1 The Player, 14/1 Oasis Banus, Thedreamstillalive, 16/1 Hatch A

Plan, 25/1 Maxilla, Peggy´s Prince, 40/1 Past Heritage, Seveneightsix, 66/1 Blue Nun, Chariot, Va Pensiro,

The 2 strongest stats ( -2pts)

Taunton 1.40 - Avoid horses aged 7 or more as they are just 1-56
Taunton 1.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are just 1-200 as 20 of the 23 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( -1.5 Pts)

Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 5 or more career starts struggled (1-25) as 2 or 3 runs were best (10-85)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more have a superb record (7-16)

Other Stats

Taunton 1.40 - Horses must have ran in at least Class E before (others 1-25) and those that ran in Class B or higher excel (7-26)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses coming from Class G/H are 0-21
Taunton 1.40 - Horses that had fallen before havent done well. They just 1-68
Taunton 1.40 - Mares are fine but Fillies are 0-27
Taunton 1.40 - Horses ridden by Claiming jockeys are poor (1-68)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 2 races this year (9-58) are better than those with 1 (5-96) or the seasonal debutants (6-86)
Taunton 1.40 - Absences of 80 + days or more just 1-34
Taunton 1.40 - Horses not trained in Lambourn are 0-31

Result


MANORSON 10 pts
THE PLAYER 7 pts
OASIS BANUS 5.5 pts
WAVERTREE BOY 5pts
SPACE STAR 5 pts

*********************

Taunton 2.10 - southwestracing.com Novices' Hurdle (Class E) (Div II) (4yo+) 2m1f

Betting Forecast: 5/2 Perfect Storm, 3/1 Master Mahogany, 7/2 Noble Request, 5/1 Wiscalitus, 13/2 Ile Facile, 16/1 Hiawatha, 25/1 Dash For

Cover, 33/1 Court Empress, Vivante, 50/1 Domart, Nassau Street, 66/1 Copyerselfon, 100/1 Gilded Ally, Red Jester,

The 2 strongest stats ( -2pts)

Taunton 1.40 - Avoid horses aged 7 or more as they are just 1-56
Taunton 1.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are just 1-200 as 20 of the 23 winners were 1st or 2nd favourite

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( -1.5 Pts)

Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 5 or more career starts struggled (1-25) as 2 or 3 runs were best (10-85)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more have a superb record (7-16)

Other Stats

Taunton 1.40 - Horses must have ran in at least Class E before (others 1-25) and those that ran in Class B or higher excel (7-26)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses coming from Class G/H are 0-21
Taunton 1.40 - Horses that had fallen before havent done well. They just 1-68
Taunton 1.40 - Mares are fine but Fillies are 0-27
Taunton 1.40 - Horses ridden by Claiming jockeys are poor (1-68)
Taunton 1.40 - Horses with 2 races this year (9-58) are better than those with 1 (5-96) or the seasonal debutants (6-86)
Taunton 1.40 - Absences of 80 + days or more just 1-34
Taunton 1.40 - Horses not trained in Lambourn are 0-31

Result

WISCALITUS 7 pts
NOBLE REQUEST 7 pts
PERFECT STORM 5.5 pts
MASTER MAHOGANY 6.5 pts
ILE FACILE 6.5 pts
HIAWATHA 6.5 pts


*********************

Taunton 3:10 rhodar.co.uk Asbestos Removal Novices' Hurdle (Class E) (5yo+) 3m½f (3m110y)

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Blue Business, 5/2 Roaringwater, 3/1 Laska De Thaix, 10/1 Espresso Forte, 16/1 Rutland, 20/1 Captain Rawlings, Gaelic

Music, Ho Ho Hill, 40/1 West Hill Gail, 66/1 Smileafact, 100/1 Mendip Manor, Pass Me A Dime,

The 2 strongest stats ( -2pts)

Taunton 3:10 - Lightly raced types dominate. Horses with 4 or more career starts are 0-30 . Those with just 1 previous race are best (2-9)
Taunton 3:10 - You want to be 1-2-3 last time out. Others 0-51

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( -1.5 Pts)

Taunton 3:10 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-56
Taunton 3:10 - 7 year olds lead the way (5-25) as 5 year olds (0-10) are unproven and 6 year olds underperform (1-26) . 8yrs + are 0-12

Other Stats
Taunton 3:10 - Horses that ran at 2m 4f or less last time are 0-29
Taunton 3:10 - Horses coming from Class F G H underperform (0-23)
Taunton 3:10 - Claiming jockeys underperform (1-19)
Taunton 3:10 - Seasonal debutants are 0-11
Taunton 3:10 - All 15 female horses lost

Result

BLUE BUSINESS 8 pts
ROARINGWATER 6.5 pts
LASKA DE THAIX 5.5 pts
RUTLAND 5.5 pts
ESPRESSO FORTE 2.5 pts


*********************

Taunton 4:10 SIS Handicap Hurdle (Class E) (4yo+,0-110) 3m½f (3m110y)

Betting Forecast: 9/2 Cimmaroon, 6/1 The Flyer, 13/2 Lowe Go, 7/1 Wild Chimes, 8/1 Delaware Bay, Teorban, 10/1 Twisted Logic, 12/1

Wimbledonian, 14/1 Emphatic, Roman Court, Stock Dove, 16/1 Javelin, 25/1 Big Max, Turaath, 33/1 Field Master, Graffiti Tongue,

The 2 strongest stats ( -2pts)

Taunton 4.10 - Horses at 12/1 and over are just 1-62
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that had 9 or more starts surprisingly struggled (1-64) . All 7 that had less than 5 starts lost.

The 3rd Strongest Stat ( -1.5 Pts)

Taunton 4.10 - Horses that had never won a race before, or who has won just once are favoured (8-54). Those with 2 + wins just 1-51
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that wear, or that have ever worn headgear before are 0-42
Taunton 4.10 - 5 year olds are unproven (0-4). Horses aged 6 and 7 dominate (7-41) as 8yrs (1-26) and 9yrs + (1-34) underperform

Other Stats

Taunton 4.10 - Horses that were 1-2-3-4 or fell last time are best. Those that completed but failed to be in the first 5 home are 0-32
Taunton 4.10 - Seasonal debutants are fine (2-7) but 3 or 4 runs this year are best (5-52) . Those with 5 or more are 0-20
Taunton 4.10 - Horses that ran within 15 days are just 1-33

Result

TEORBAN 8 pts
DELAWARE BAY 7 pts
WILD CHIMES 6.5 pts
WIMBLEDONIAN 6 pts
CIMMAROON 6 pts
TWISTED LOGIC 5.5 pts
THE FLYER 3 pts
LOWE GO 3 pts
EMPHATIC 1 pts
*********************
*********************