Lingfield Has been Abandoned robbing the message of 4 races and Potentially the best Angles. I have had a look at several races at Cheltenham and Doncaster today (Below). Possiblly may be a little Rusty today. In terms of the Book which you are patiently waiting for it is Going to be sent very shortly possibly Sunday. There is no Racing on Sunday so No Message as normal although the Full Service resumes from Today. On Sunday I will be having a Look at the Welsh National and seeing what that race offers us.

In terms of todays racing now Lingfield has been Abandoned Cheltenham is fascinating but Highly competetive as usual. Today is a day to "test my form" and see how the Angles perform. Now Lingfield is off I have lost my best options. As a replacement "nap" I like the look of CARACCIOLA at 16/1 in the 1.45 race at Lingfield although he is weak in the Market and it is a worry.

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Todays Racing


Cheltenham 12.20 - Totepool Juvenile Novices' Hurdle (Class B) (3yo) 2m1f

9/4 Afsoun, 5/2 Turko, 11/4 Fair Along, 14/1 Shannon Springs, 16/1 Desert Jim, Wembury Point, 20/1 Flaming Weapon, Wotchalike, 25/1 Equilibria, 100/1 Ghabesh, Mickey Pearce

The betting suggests a 3 horse race between

9/4 Afsoun
5/2 Turko
11/4 Fair Along

Marginal preference for TURKO then Afsoun then Fair Along


FAIR ALONG 11/4 - This is his 6th start and Looking at the 12 Past renewals he would easily be the most exposed winner . Every past winner had between 0-3 starts , Horses that had 4 or more starts had not won and I suspect he may be a little exposed now.

AFSOUN - Nicky Henderson is lethal in Juvenile Hurdlers and he will be hard to beat. I just prefer Turko as I feel 3 runs is better than 1 run especially on this ground. AFSOUN was 2nd on his debut. 11 of the past 12 winners were either unraced or last time out winners. This horse is neither and therefore technically achieved less than most past winners. Pedantic as that probably is. Had he ran 3 times and Turko just once he would have been the selection but I feel TURKO has that advantage.

TURKO is the selection and looks an ideal "Each Way Double" leg to me

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Cheltenham 12.55 - ladbrokes.com December Novices' Chase (Class A) Grade 2 (5yo+) 3m

100/30 Made In Japan, 4/1 Le Seychellois, 11/2 Feel The Pride, 6/1 Provocative, 7/1 Escompteur, Tysou, 9/1 Ground Ball, 10/1 Bleu Superbe, 14/1 Tribal Dispute,


Issues for me are these

1) Exposed horses that have ran 3 + times this year have a poor record. I can understand why that is. I want to stay with that reasoning which is a negative for these horses - Feel The Pride 14/1 Bleu Superb 20/1 , Escompteur 16/1

2) This race can go to any age ground but it has to be said that Horses aged 5 and 6 Do have an excellent record in this race (4-11) and these horses are Positives and ideal ages- MADE IN JAPAN 100/30 - LE SEYCHELLOIS 5/2

NEGATIVES

Feel The Pride 20/1 Bleu Superb 20/1 , Escompteur 16/1 (Already discussed)

LE SEYCHELLOIS 5/2 - I Think a slight worry is Paul Nichols record in Handicap Chases at Cheltenham in December. He has a 1-30 record. 6 beaten favourites lost. I also think the fact that his price (5/2 from 4/1) has been robbed of a lot of his value.


POSITIVES

MADE IN JAPAN 100/30 comes from Phillip Hobbs stable whose stable has a 6-26 record in Handicap Chases in December at Cheltenham

TYSOU 13/2 is a positive based on his trainer record at this track in Handicap Chasers at this time of year

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Cheltenham 2.05 - Cheltenham Novices' Chase (Class B) (5yo+) 2m5f

5/4 Celtic Son, 9/4 Albuhera, 4/1 Bewleys Berry, 11/2 Exotic Dancer

Race Trends

CELTIC SON 5/4 and BEWLEYS BERRY 4/1 Drop in trip from races over 3 Miles . In the ground this would appear to be an advantage but the fact remains that all 8 horses that dropped in trip from 3m or more got beaten in this race.

ALBUHERA comes here from the same Novice Chase at Newbury that Buckby Lane ran in before winning this race in 2003. The record of horses in this race coming from Newbury is exceptional. 5 Horses came here from Newbury and 4 Won. The Preperation ALBUHERA has is the best in the race in my opinion.

ALBUHERA (Paul Nicholls) comes from a stable that surprisingly have never had a runner in this race but Nicholls has a 5-9 record in December at Cheltenham with his Novice Chasers . Thats an excellent strike rate but these 4 runners all have excellent trainers and no real negatives can be assumed for any of them.
I Feel its an open race that wll be determined Tactically and how horses jump in the ground. I dont feel "stats" or trainer Angles lead to any firm conclusions.

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Cheltenham 2:40 - Robin Cook Memorial Gold Cup (A Handicap Chase) (Sponsored By totesport) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m5f

3/1 Our Vic, 6/1 Thisthatandtother, 7/1 Fondmort, 9/1 Our Armageddon, Redemption, 10/1 Lacdoudal, 14/1 Scots Grey, 16/1 Europa, Le Passing, Patricksnineteenth, 20/1 Brooklyn Breeze, Risk Accessor, 25/1 Quazar, Sir Oj, 33/1 Therealbandit, 50/1 Tango Royal, 66/1 Mixsterthetrixster,

NEGATIVES

REDEMPTION 10/1 - Horses aged 10 and over are 0-13 since 1991 and no 10 year old won since 1974 with few placed. I also feel his preperation coming from the Paddy Power and the Hennesy Gold cup counts against him. He also fell in the last 2 renewals of this race.

PATRICKSNINETEETH 20/1 - Seasonal Debutant. All 22 horses in this race trying to win on their debuts lost. All 12 coming from a Grade 1 chase also lost

OUR ARMAGEDDON 10/1 - Seasonal Debutant. All 22 horses in this race trying to win on their debuts lost.

OUR VIC 9/2- Stable Form and "Race Vibes" dont appear to be encouraging but the main reason is weight. Our Vic has to break the weight carrying record in this race to win . The last 6 winners all carried 11st 4lbs or less and I feel the weight will beat him. 9lbs higher than when falling in this race last year.

I Dont really fancy THISTHATANDTOTHER . He isnt the ideal Age. Paul Nichols hasnt a great record on Grade 1 tracks at this time of year with his Handicap Chasers and Nicholls is 0-8 in this race although he has been placed several times in this race. THISTHATANDTOTHER was 2nd in this race last year but he was beaten 7 lengths and is now 6lbs higher.

POSITIVES

Horses aged 6-7-8 are best. From the 37 renewals since 1963 , 29 were won by 6-7-8 year olds
In the last 12 years 11 of the 12 winners were "Placed" on their last start

EUROPA 25/1 was an unlucky 3rd in this race last year

FONDMORT 8/1 - Ran poorly in last years race but won this race in 2002

LACDOUDAL 10/1 - I have no problem with him

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Cheltenham 3.15 - Totesport Bula Hurdle (Class A) Grade 2 (4yo+) 2m1f


11/8 Harchibald, 5/1 Faasel, 6/1 Intersky Falcon, 7/1 Penzance, 10/1 Royal Shakespeare, Sporazene, 16/1 Akilak, 25/1 Phar Bleu, Westender,

4 year olds have so far failed in this race. All 6 that tried lost. Its probably not that big an issue as Far Cry was 4 when beaten in a Photo in 1999. Todays 4 year olds are Faasel 5/1, Penzance 7/1, Akilak 16/1 and Phar Bleu 25/1. Personally I would want an older horse. Far Cry was a tough old boot that had already won a Doncaster cup, Queens Prize and Northumberland Plate on the Flat and he was not the norm. Given a Choice I want a horse aged at least 5 even though the stats are not convincing that 4 year olds cant win. I Respect HARCHIBALD but he isnt my kind of price and its hard to feel he is outstanding value at 11/8 much as he obviously has a huge chance.

HARCHIBALD 11/8 and SPORAZENE 10/1 would top my shortlist

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Doncaster 12.40 - 5/2 Leo´s Luckyman, 8/1 Unshakable, 8/1 Cracboumwiz, 12/1 Futoo, 18/1 Total Turtle, 8/1 Adventurist, 16/1 Panzer, 16/1 Once, 20/1 Heversham, Huckster, 25/1 Grand Daum, 40/1 Bond Millennium, Fuel Cell, Titus Salt, 50/1 Doringo, 66/1 Extra Cover, Red Bluff, Tank Buster

Unknown

LEO'S LUCKYMAN 5/2 was listed Class on the Flat . Now with R S Brookhouse. This is a trainer in his 5th year that has a far better record with Stayers. In fact his record at 2 miles is 0-39 and he has only just had his first Novice Hurdle winner. He seems a little inexperienced to me to be handling a Listed Class Flat runner over Hurdles. This is a quality horse built for Hurdling though. Personally I dont want to put him on the Positives List or the Negtatives list.

UNSHAKABLE 6/1 Comes from a stable that have a 0-50 record in all races over Jumps since 1997. They havent shown much interest in the game in recent seasons. That said this horse was talented on the Flat and better than Futoo, Adventurist or Panzer on the Flat. Trainer record could be seen as a negative but the reality is that Bob Jones is capable of winning Novice Hurdles with a horse like this and as he is easily his stable"star" he wouldnt be running him if he didnt feel he had ability over hurdles. My Gut feeling is that he will b e doing his best but they will not want to risk him at all and I think he willlooked after. He is on the "unknown" list but if you Pushed me i would put him on the negatives list.

Negatives

FUTOO 10/1 was rated about 40lbs less on the Flat than Leo´s Luckyman, but does come from a More establised stable. Whilst Comfort can be gained from G M Moores 2-9 record at Doncaster in December what I find interesting is that at this time of year the stables Novice Hurdlers that have raced just once had a poor record. They are fine when "debutants" but they often regress after 1 race and that does put me off FUTOO 10/1/1 a little much as he has been keeping fit on the sand. Drifted overnight as well/

ADVENTURIST 8/1 isnt for me. A Stable as Powerful as Peter Bowen yet he has less than a 4% strike rate with Novice Hurdlers on their seasonal debuts. This horse hasnt ran in 808 days and he was only a 0-75 horse when last seen on the Flat. Bowens "first time out" record is very poor. He does have a 2-3 track record in Novice Hurdles but his debut record makes him a negative and its interesting that the Racing Post pushed him out from 5/2 to 5/1 in their second copy last night.

PANZER 16/1 - Another 0-75 Handicapper on the Flat. His stable have a 4.5% record in Novice Hurdles but usually they strike far earlier in the season. By the time the Novice Hurdlers get to December they struggle. The stables Novice Hurdlers are just 1-62 between the months of December and Febuary and it may now not be their best time of year.

CRACBOUMWIZ 9/1 - Not enamoured by the stables 5% strike rate in Novice Hurdles and they are not at their best at this time of year anyway. The stable have a 0-37 record in Novice Hurdlers between November and January . The yard are also 0-15 with debutants and 0-24 with Seasonal debutants which doesnt augur well for his chance and there are not many reasons to fancy this horse. He is quite solid in the Betting Market which may be a good guide.

Positives

I wrote this when TOTAL TURTLE was 14/1 but overnight he is now 8/1 .

TOTAL TURTLE - I would want him on my side. He was quoted at 14/1 as he ran behind FUTOO last time on his debut. However he was a 7/1 chance that day (Futoo was 33/1) so better was expected and he was Listed class on his day on the Flat. I also note Tim Easterbys 3-10 record at Doncaster in Novice Hurdles between December and January. On profile, this horse has a far better chance than his 14/1 quote implied. At 8/1 though a lot of that value has been lost

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Doncaster 1.15- Weatherbys Bank Beginners' Chase (Class E) (4yo+) 2m3f

7/2 Aleron, 4/1 New Alco, 7/1 Classic Capers, Patriarch, Reel Missile, 8/1 Italiano, 10/1 Mr McAuley, 12/1 Samby, 14/1 Handsuposcar, 25/1 Kings Square, 50/1 Zaffiera

Being a Beginners Chase there are no stats and no trainer angles of note. I want to be against the 5 year olds but that doesnt help us. Despite the 5 year olds in Beginners Chasers being weak the 4 year olds are excellent I have found with their allowance. I think 4 year olds have good records. Todays 4 year olds include NEW ALCO 4/1 . No great angles to report and little else to say. Classic Capers 7/1 comes from a stable with a weak Doncaster record. Patriarch 9/1 does at least come from a stable that does well at Doncaster at this time of year but with a 662 days absence plenty of doubts remain about him. Looks a very open race with little way in .

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Doncaster 1.45 - Intercasino.co.uk Sea Pigeon Handicap Hurdle (Class B) (4yo+,0-140) 2m½f (2m110y)

5/1 Dont Call Me Derek, 11/2 Desert Quest, 7/1 Briareus, Chef De Cour, Prairie Moonlight, 8/1 Calatagan, Into The Shadows, 10/1 Caracciola, Mexican Pete, 14/1 Caraman, 25/1 Genuine Article, 33/1 Grave Doubts

I Fancy CARACCIOLA at 16/1 despite him being weak in the market.

Based on 14 past renewals I feel 7-20 Career starts is the ideal exposure. Less than 7 starts is a little inexperienced. More than 20 a little over exposed. Taking horses that had fewer than 7 career starts, The record of these types in these race is 1-18 . Admittedly a small sample size and there are several inexperienced runners in todays race but I do feel 7-20 runs is ideal .

Todays "inexperienced runners " are Dont Call Me Derek 5/1 (3 Runs) Desert Quest 11/2 (5 Runs) Briareus 7/1 (3 Runs) Prairie Moonlight 7/1 (6 Runs). DONT CALL ME DEREK 5/1 , BRIAREUS 7/1 and CARAMAN are all Seasonal Debutants. They have a 1-14 record in this race . The last Seasonal debutant was a well handicapped horse back in 1993. In this ground I would much rather have a horse thats had a race this year. 10 of the 14 winners of this race had 1 or 2 races that season as did the last 4 winners.

Negatives

DONT CALL ME DEREK 5/1 - I make him a "negative" because a) He is inexperienced for me running for only the 4th time in his first Handicap Hurdle and b) Because his Trainers record in Handicap Hurdlers between December and Febuary is only 1-54

BRIAREUS 7/1 - Negative as a) Inexperienced with just 3 races and b) Seasonal Debutant

MEXICAN PETE 10/1 - The Tony Carrol stable have never won a Handicap Hurdlers in Class C or higher before. All 27 that tried lost.

CARAMAN 14/1 - Negative due to a) Seasonal Debutant and b) Trainers record in Handicap Hurdlers between December and Febuary is only 1-54

Positives

I think one trend is interesting. PRARIE MOONLIGHT 7/1 , INTO THE SHADOWS 8/1 and CARACCIOLA 10/1 come from Newburys Hennesy meeting. The winner of this race in 1999, 2002 and 2003 did just that. I think thats a positive for these runners. I have to side with CARACCIOLA 10/1 as my most interesting Profile.


DESERT QUEST 9/2 - He is slightly underraced but he is a Paul Nicholls horse that won 2 days ago at odds on in a handicap and it would be stupid not to consider him a big player. I think there are too many unknown factors to "judge" him accurately. not least what effect his race 2 days ago will have on him but he is a horse to keep "On side".


CARACCIOLA 16/1 is interesting (Nicky Henderson)

a) Nicky Henderson has a 2-2 record in this race
b) Nicky Henderson used the same prep race over Chases for CARACCIOLA that he used for Regal Exit who won this race in 2003
c) The 5lbs claimer is not a problem. 5lbs Claimers in this race have a 5-11 record
d) CARACCIOLA 1 comes from a Chase. Both Nicky Hendersons 2 winners had warm up races over Chases
e) CARACCIOLA has 11st 12lbs and carries 8lbs more than his nearest rival. That suggests a Class Gap
f) High Weights do very well. 4 of the last 5 winners had 11st 7lbs or more and the record of Topweights is an excellent 5-14 record and 11 of the 14
winners were in the top 3 in weight.

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Doncaster 2.20 - Sykes Lawn Turf Handicap Hurdle (Class D) (4yo+,0-115) 2m3½f (2m3f110y)

7/2 Backgammon, 5/1 Flame Phoenix, 6/1 Night Sight, 7/1 Krakow Baba, 10/1 Fard Du Moulin Mas, Karathaena, Presumptuous, Simply Mystic, 16/1 County Classic, Wally Wonder, 20/1 Renvyle

Seasonal Debutants have a 0-20 record in this race - This is a question Mark for KRAKOW BABA 7/1 and PRESUMPTIOUS 10/1

Doncaster 2.20 - There have been 14 renewals with 139 runners
Doncaster 2.20 - Seasonal debutants are 0-20
Doncaster 2.20 - Horses aged 8 and over are just 1-32
Doncaster 2.20 - Horses that did not run within 47 days are 0-29
Doncaster 2.20 -Horses coming from a novice event are 0-21
Doncaster 2.20 - Maidens are 0-16
Doncaster 2.20 - 11st 10lbs or more 0-17
Doncaster 2.20 - Horses carrying 10st 6lbs or less are just 1-48
Doncaster 2.20 -6 year olds are best (7-29)
Doncaster 2.20 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out are just 1-53(*that winner fell)

Negatives

RENVYLE 20/1- Would be the highest weight carrier, and all from the longest ever absence in this race should he win

BACKGAMMON 7/2 - He comes from a Maiden Hurdle. That hasnt been tried before but all 21 horses that came from a Novice Hurdle lost and I am struggling to see that leap from Maiden Hurdle to Handicap Hurdle as a positive. He is also a Maiden. All 16 Maidens that ran in this race lost. Keith Reveley also has a 0-7 record in Handicap Hurdlers at Doncaster

NIGHT SIGHT 6/1 - Not so much the fact his trainer has a 0-10 record in Handicap Hurdlers at Doncaster. More so a Class issue as Bottom Weight. 10st 6lbs or less has a poor record in this race. Bottom weights are usually beaten and I just think he may fail the Class argument

FARD DU MOULIN MAS - Adding him to the negatives list Mainly as the stable only has about 2 winners a year . This yard have also Never had a winner that hadnt ran within 31 days of their last run and a 200 day absence is off-putting. He would also be by far the oldest runner aged 12 when horses in this race aged 8 or more were just 1-32

KARATHAENA 10/1 - Hard to like his profile. His stable only have 1-6 winners a year which is hardly prolific . His yard are 4-229 in the last 2-3 seasons. What I also dislike about him is how Sowersby runs his Handicap Hurdlers. They are superb (for his modest standards) between June and September. His september record is 4-9. When we get to December to the end of the season he has a 1-99 record in Handicap Hurdlers. Its not the best time of year for the stable.

SIMPLY MYSTIC 10/1 - Stable are not reknowned for winners at Doncaster (1-23) and they score poorly with Handicap Hurdles


Possibles

KRAKOW BABA 7/1 - Nothing to fault him on other than the 0-20 Seasonal debut statistic. Watch the Market though. Negative evidence is too Flimsy to put him on the Negatives list but he hasnt enough positives to place him on a positives list.

PRESUMPTIOUS 10/1 - My doubts are a) He is a seasonal debut (0-20 in this race) . b) His Stables Handicap Hurdlers rarely win first time out at this time of year and rarely with an absence of over a Month. I think his absence hurts him a lot. That said he is strong in the Market and that counts for plenty. Mixed profile. Wouldnt make my shortlist but respected..


Positives

FLAME PHOENIX 5/1 - I cant find any obvious Flaws with his profile and he is the perfect age for this race (6).

COUNTRY CLASSIC 25/1 - May be "Too much too soon" but Tim Easterbys Handicap Hurdlers peak in December and January after 2 runs or more and we are just entering the "Ideal" time of year for horses like COUNTRY CLASSIC and as he is also the ideal age (6) He makes the Positives list.
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