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Today's Racing


I have run out of time today looking at the cards wasting too long on Cheltenham which hasnt produced much at all. I started a bit too late last night after a Hold up. I think ECHO POINT (2.50) will win at 7/4 but he is too short to consider as a bet. It isnt an easy day with the big fields at Sedgefield and the ruthless make up of Cheltenham so Hopefully I can produce something better tomorrow.


Cheltenham

I want to leave this meeting alone apart from the opening race and the Bumper at 5.30 as it looks just 2 hard and with no strong edges.

Cheltenham 2.00 - 4/7 Darrias, 3/1 Classic Approach, 8/1 Double Dizzy, 40/1 Boytjie, 40/1 Lago D´Oro, 100/1 Chocolate Bombe,

I think CLASSIC APPROACH 3/1 each way is the bet. You have a doubt with the favourite (Darrias) trying to get a trip far beyond anything he has tried before and although a soft ground winner he has always been said to have prefered faster ground. In a race with 3 No-Hopers CLASSIC APPROACH has only got to beat 1 danger to place and he holds a strong winning chance and is far more proven in terms of stamina. That would be where I would go.

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Cheltenham 5.30 - 3/1 El Bandindos, 4/1 Kevkat, 7/1 Carrickerry, Dopey Bob, Dream Alliance, 10/1 Tokala, 14/1 Kitebrook, Night Safe, 16/1 Castlemainevillage, Mr Nick, 33/1 Made In Bruere, Royal Hilarity, 50/1 Butsadtohavetogo, Double The Trouble, Le Burf, Muir Cottage, Tom´n Ed,

I attempting to Narrow this down I have ruled out the horses trading at 33/1 or bigger on Betfair. This leaves 8 runners.

If you look at Cheltenham Bumpers there is a clear advantage to Seasonal debutants. If you look at horses that had ran twice or more they have a very poor 1-30
record. The only winner was 7 years ago and turned out to be a 159 rated Hurdler. I think you should look away from horses that have ran twice or more times beforehand which means the favourite KEVKAT 9/2.

Stableform could also play a Factor. Martin Pipe has a 0-3 record in this race but also a low 1-22 record in Cheltenham bumpers so his EL BANDINDOS wouldnt be following on the heels of a sound stable record. Nigel Twiston Davies is even worse. Twiston Davies record in this race is 0-17 and he is 0-30 in all Cheltenham bumpers suggesting DOPEY BOB 7/1 and NIGHT SAFE 18/1 could be overlooked. Admittedly these angles are tenous at best but with unraced bumper horses its not as if there is much else to go on. I am happy to overlook TOKALA on breeding, and on the fact no 7lbs claimer has ever won a Cheltenham bumper beforehand in an open race. This Leaves a shortlist of Carrickerry , Dream Alliance and M Nick.

I would side with Phillip Hobbs DREAM ALLIANCE at 5/1. I choose him as he is trading at 5/1 under his 7/1 racing post quote and also because Phillip Hobbs has ran 7 horses in this race and won with 3 of them.


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Sedgefield

The opening Selling Handicap looks and has been a breeding ground for gambles over the years. The stats suggest Azahara as a 3 year old filly is going to struggle. In Selling Hurdles over this sort of trip its very hard for 3 year olds to win and none have done so since 1993 but it has been done before so I wouldnt lay her at all. Very often when a horse looks diabolical statistically but its strong in the market it often wins. Statistically I couldnt possibly advise anyone to bet Azahara who would also be the lightest ever raced 3 year old. This race though is complicated by Irish runners and likely gambles. IRISH PRINCE is being backed from a trainer who used to work for Barney Curley. You also have Jim Lambe sending over 2 horses from Ireland (Balakar 16/1 and Diamond Jack 5/1) and if the bigger priced horse won it would surprise nobody and Balakar has been backed from 16/1 to 12/1 which may well be a significant clue. It just smells
like a gambling race and the best guide could be the late market.

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In the 2.10 race I just cant see the argument for why Colmcille is so short at 7/1 and I wouldnt be afraid to oppose him. I also thought CANAVAN 5/1 was
statistically weak but you can look at that 2 ways. In terms of what it takes to win this race he is hard to fancy but take Ferdy Murphys record wth seasonal
debutants over marathon trips he actually makes a nice profit with these horses so there is some ambiguity in the trends. It wouldnt steer me to bet him but it
would stop me laying him especially as his sire has an excellent record with horses that are fresh, racing after an absence and seasonal debutants and when the
grounds soft that record improved dramatically. You can actually view the "statistically weak" CARAVAN as statistically strong if you take his trainer and sires
record into account . Looking at profiles in the race the only runners that had perfect profiles were END OF AN ERROR 5/2 and DIAMOND JOSHUA 16/1. I
think you have to be brave to bet Tony Carrol favourites which is what End Of An Error is, and the ground is the problem with him.

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In the 2.50 race we have 2 interesting recruits from Bumpers running in a Novice Hurdle.

7/4 Echo Point, 5/2 Bougoure, 3/1 Monsieur Delage, 11/1 Scotmail, 12/1 Rosslare, 14/1 Extra Smooth, 20/1 Fencote Gold, Top Dawn, 50/1 Myoss, 66/1 Thorn Of The Rose, 100/1 Rectory, Whatcanyasay, 200/1 Victor One

ECHO POINT won his only bumper and then Upgraded stables to Nicky Richards and now has his first run over hurdles
BOUGOURE has had 4 races in Bumpers and now faces his first hurdles test.

MONSIEUR DELAGE is experienced over hurdles and sets ths standard with a 3rd at Market Rasen.

When you look at the hundreds of similar novice hurdles at this time of year there is absolutely no advantage between horses coming from Bumpers that havent jumped in public yet or Horses that have already ran over hurdles. With the bumper horses it doesnt matter how often they have ran either so its unsafe to say that a horse like Monsieir Delage has an advantage because he has ran over hurdles. If there is any advantage it may come from the record of their trainers and how they campaign their horses. This for me is a Big advantage for ECHO POINT 7/4 over Bougoure 5/2

Taking all Novice Hurdles between September and October we have some startling differences between Nicky Richards (Echo Point) and Sue Smith (Bougoure)

Nicky Richards has a 9-24 record in these novice hurdles and if you look at those novices he sent straight from bumpers his record is 4 wins from 7 runners
Sue Smith by contrast has a dreadful 1-66 record in Novice Hurdles at this time of year and her ex bumper types were 1 from 11 .

Its clear that SUE SMITH doesnt get the right type of horses for these races and has many more longer term chasing prospects. The 1 from 66 record is pretty
appaling. The only winner she had was a 2/7 chance in 1999 (Errand Boy) who ended up winning a Grade 3 hurdle and was a decent novice chaser. I think that the record of the trainers involve and the trainer patterns demand that you take the Nicky Richards horse ECHO POINT Far more serioulsy because his trainer targets these races with regular success and the main rivals (Bougoure) trainer Sue Smith doesnt appear to as her 1-66 record testifys.

I think ECHO POINT will win.

I feel you can reasonably make a case for MONSIEUR DELAGE 9/2 with hurdling experience but he doesnt look anything special at all and I would be quietly surprised if he had the class or the potential compared to the likes of ECHO POINT 7/4. I also think it must be said that Richard Fahey's ROSSLARE is more than worthy of a mention at 20/1 . In the history of this Sedgefield race horses that came from Hexham as ROSSLARE did had a great record. The record is 5-17 and it produced the winner of this race in 2000 , 2002, 2003 and 2004 . In fact the 2000 winner (Fireside Girl) and the 2003 winner (Moonlit Harbour)
came from the exact same Hexham race that ROSSLARE ran in before taking this race. Its true ROSSLARE did Pull up last time, but I do feel you can justifiably blame fast ground and 2m 4f for that defeat and its a fact that 4 of the 10 previous winners of this race lost their previous race by 30 or more lengths or failed to finish so its not as if it cant be done to put a bad run behind you.

ECHO POINT has the strongest profile but watch the market for ROSSLARE at 20/1 as he certainly has a better chance than his odds imply.

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The 3.25 Sedgefield has never been ran before and there have been no similar races anywehere so in what looks an open race for useless horses there are no
starting points and I am happy to swerve the race in any detail but the interesting gamble has been CORRIES WOOD (14/1-8/1) from the Irish raiding stable of Jim Lambe who has already gone on record as aiming to target Northern Handicaps at places like this. He smells fancied.

In terms of the 4.00 there have been 25 identical races and the only angle I can see is that most of these low grade Handicap hurdles go to low weights.

11/4 Russian Sky, 7/2 Flake, 9/2 Red Man, 7/1 Nick The Silver, 10/1 An Dun Ri, Classic Lash, Hugo De Perro, 14/1 Cody, Sands Rising, 66/1 Quay Walloper

It may not work out like that today but the fact remains that 23 of the 25 identical races went to horses that carried less than 11st 8lbs. If you look at the record
of high weighted horses its poor. The only 2 winners that won these races were both in a) very small fields, b) both won easily on their next start in better class
races suggesting they were very well handicapped. Weight stats are often quite inconsistent but when 23 of the 25 previous renewals had a definate low weight
bias, and when only 1 of the 10 favourites that had big weights managed to win (and that was in a small field) it does tend to support the view that upcoming
horses are better bets than horses at the top of the weights that may have already reached their Plateau or who may have failed in better grade. Complicated and
hardly compelling but Russian Sky (11st 10lbs) and Flake (11st 9lbs) do have high weights.

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Sedgefield 4.35 - Evs Deja Vu, 2/1 Underwriter, 6/1 Nocatee, 14/1 Celtic Blaze, Tornado Alley, 25/1 Pottsy´s Joy, 66/1 Mad Max Too

Nothing much to go on as this race had been upgraded from a Beginners Chase to a Novice Chase recently. All I can say is that last years renewal, and both the
2003 renewals went to Ferdy Murphy who has won with his last 3 horses in these races. He runs UNDERWRITER in this race.

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Today's Statistics

Sedgefield 1.45 - 9 renewals and 114 runners
Sedgefield 1.45 - You want a horse thats had between 4 and 20 races. Less than 4 (0-9) and more than 21 (0-31) are win-less
Sedgefield 1.45 - Seasonal debutants are 0-27
Sedgefield 1.45 - All 20 horses aged 9 and over lost
Sedgefield 1.45 - No horse that has ran in Class 3 company or above has won this yet from 21 that tried.
Sedgefield 1.45 - You want to have run within 31 days. They are 8 from 71. Those that did not are just 1 from 43
Sedgefield 1.45 - All 16 Fillies were beaten in this race but Mares are fine
Sedgefield 1.45 - Horses that ran in Class D before yet no higher won 7 of the 9 renewals from just 62 runners
Sedgefield 1.45 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 0-44
Sedgefield 1.45 - 6 of the 9 races were won by maidens

Sedgefield 2.10 - 6 renewals and 64 runners
Sedgefield 2.10 - Every winner has ran at least 9 times before over fences. Those that had not are 0-9
Sedgefield 2.10 - Seasonal debutants are 0-16
Sedgefield 2.10 - Horses from Hexham are 3-11
Sedgefield 2.10 - Horses aged 4-5-6 are 0-16
Sedgefield 2.10 - You want to have run within 31 days. Others 0-22
Sedgefield 2.10 - All 10 Fillies were beaten in this race
Sedgefield 2.10 - Horses at 8/1 and over are just 1-38
Sedgefield 2.10 - You want to be at least 1-2-3 last time. Those that were not are just 1-39
Sedgefield 2.10 - Every winner ran in a Handicap last time. Those that did not were 0-11
Sedgefield 2.10 - All 16 horses that came from a Novice race last time lost
Sedgefield 2.10 - Maidens are 0-18

Sedgefield 2.50 - 10 renewals and 96 runners
Sedgefield 2.50 - Unraced horses are 0-10 . Horses that raced just once are 1-17 and those raced "twice" are 0-13 so all are vulnerable
Sedgefield 2.50 - Seasonal debutants (4-43) are fine
Sedgefield 2.50 - Watch horses coming from Hexham (5-17 ) and Sedgefield (3-15)
Sedgefield 2.50 - 6 year olds (5-34) are slightly best over 4 and 5 year olds (5-42)
Sedgefield 2.50 - All 15 horses that ran within the last 2 weeks were beaten

Cheltenham 2:00 - There have been 15 similar renewals with 122runners
Cheltenham 2:00 - 4 year olds (6-21) are best over 5 yrs (5-40) and 6yo (3-38). Horses aged 7 + are only 1-23
Cheltenham 2:00 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 1-67
Cheltenham 2:00 - Horses that ran 8-31 days ago fair best. They won 11 of the 15 renewals from just 42 runners
Cheltenham 2:00 - Last time out winners have an excellent record (9-22) . Horses that were not 1-2-3 last time are 1-47
Cheltenham 2:00 - Horses with 2 or more career wins are best (9-23)
Cheltenham 2:00 - All 19 Northern trained horses lost

Cheltenham 2:35 - There have been 9 similar renewals with 87 runners
Cheltenham 2:35 - Horses that had between 5 and 12 starts are best ( 8 from 50)
Cheltenham 2:35 - Seasonal debutants are 1 from 23 yet horses with 1,2,3, runs this season are 8 from 41 and favoured
Cheltenham 2:35 - 5 year olds are best (4 from 9 )with horses aged 8 and over just 1-27
Cheltenham 2:35 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-41
Cheltenham 2:35 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4 last time are 1-28
Cheltenham 2:35 - Horses dropping from Class C are strong (3-7)
Cheltenham 2:35 - All 24 Northern trained stables were beaten
Cheltenham 2:35 - Weight - High Numbers dominate. Horses at 11st 3lbs and under are just 1-52 . Horses at 11st 4lbs + are 8-35

Cheltenham 3:10 - There have been 9 renewals with 83 runners
Cheltenham 3:10 - Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-16
Cheltenham 3:10 - Horses at 8/1 or over are 1-49
Cheltenham 3:10 - Any weight can win but horses with 11st 4lbs or more are 6 from 29 and fair best

Cheltenham 3:45 - There have been 13 renewals with 66 runners
Cheltenham 3:45 - 0-1-2-3 runs this season are best. More than that 1-15
Cheltenham 3:45 - Horses that have ran in Grade 1/Grade 2/Grade 3 before fair well and are 6 from just 14 runners
Cheltenham 3:45 - Horses at 6/1 and over are 0-34
Cheltenham 3:45 - Last time out winners are 9-22 and fair very well

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