*************
*************

Best Bet Of The Day

Newmarket 2.20 - ZAYN ZEN Each Way

11/2 (Hills, Skybet , Totalbet , Stan J, Ukbetting, Sp Odds , Betdirect)

Today I can only provide a statistical "overview" of the days Racing. Saturdays as ever are mind blowing and dangerous and sorting wheat out from the Chaff is nigh on impossible. This week so far we have only had 3 BBOD's . We have had a 3/1 winner and a couple of 14/1 losers. The Key chance of Sucesss with any BBOD or Account bet has to be the choice of race that they run in. Today I am not doing a Race of The Day as Time has not been available with so many stats and meetings. There will be one tomorrow. I think I have been slightly ambitious in my choice of races this week. I didnt see Northern Nymphs race last night but I felt if he had a flaw he lacked gears and he ran mid pack. I was pleased to see the winner come from the shortlist of 3 runners but I claim no credit for the win and am just glad that none of the "Statistical negatives" won as I know a few of you Laid those which always gets me stressed ! Today I just feel a general overview is sensible and tomorrow we can return to the Race Of The Day and hopefully a winner. My stake to day is £100 e/w


*************
*************


Today's Racing

Redcar 1.00 - 9/4 Muzdaher, 11/2 Isidore Bonheur, 7/1 Burley Flame, Moors Myth, Roman Maze, 8/1 Tiber Tiger, 14/1 Royal Dignitary, 16/1 Fiore Di Bosco, 20/1 Doitnow, Louisiade, 25/1 Green Pirate, Neon Blue, 33/1 Capped For Victory,

MUZDAHER the 9/4 favourite would be too inexperienced for me and I would look to try and find something against him. She has ran far fewer times than every past winner. Obviously respected as a Mark Johnston horse . BURLEY FLAME 7/1 does have a better profile but TIBER TIGER 8/1 is probably the best statistical runner. The favourite has an obvious chance but questions to answer and I would look to oppose him.

*************

Redcar 1.40 - 3/1 Ridgeway Cross, 5/1 Glendening, 7/1 Charlie Hather, 9/1 Secret Tender, 10/1 Frogmill Prince, Horsefair Dancer, Musical City, 12/1 Genoa Star, L´Italiana, 16/1 Song Huntress, 20/1 Champagne Moment, 25/1 Bolden, Lazzoom, Red Iris, 33/1 Chicherova, 50/1 Chisom, Chunky Bell, Sweet Cherokee,

Reasonable stats without being compelling. I think this is a Fillies race. I Think you either have to commit to RIDGEWAY CROSS as the class horse in the race or accept that its wide open. RIDGEWAY CROSS is at least a Filly and drops in class. Only 1 horse in the last 14 years has dropped from a Class 3 Nursery into a seller. That was the beaten favourite in 2001. Clearly the strongest runner but we shouldnt get carried away. She was a 25/1 chance last time, a 100/1 chance the time before in the Super Sprint and if she was Class 3 why would she be running in a Selling race. She is also likely to want a bit of cut in the ground. My biggest problem with opposing RIDGEWAY CROSS is that some of her rivals are statistically weak. I certainly could not bet Glendening 5/1 , Genoa Star or L'Italiana dropping in trip as trip droppers have a very poor record. 9 of the last 14 winners were beaten more than 6 lengths last time out so finding the winner wont be easy. I prefer RIDGEWAY CROSS to Glendening but it wouldnt surprise me to see something improve past her like Musical City 10/1 and I would make RIDGEWAY CROSS the most likely winner and Musical City a big priced danger at 16/1

*************

Redcar 2.40 - 6/4 Court Of Appeal, 4/1 King Flyer, 5/1 French Mannequin, 7/1 Loop The Loup, 10/1 Lucky Judge, Spitting Image, 20/1 Discomania, 50/1 Ipledgeallegiance

With 8 runners and a favouurite (Court Of Appeal) going up in trip when so many past winners were going "Down" in trip tells me that opposing him each way with something makes perfect sense in this race. The stats offered no stand out alternative. I Dont bet Fergal Lynch's runners and he rides French Mannequin. Statistically he has a great chance. I just dont trust connections. I would Follow the Market late in this race and latch on to the best backed each way alternative to the fvaourite. Lucky Judge and Spitting Image are two big priced runners not out of this.

*************

Redcar 4.15 - 13/2 Far Note, 7/1 Nevinstown, 8/1 Mill By The Stream, 10/1 Abelard, Evanesce, Pop Up Again, 12/1 Fox Covert, Premier Grand, Smirfys party, Thornaby Green, 14/1 Larky´s Lob, Petite Mac, 16/1 Desert Lover, 20/1 Amelia, Frimley´s Matterry, One Last Time, 25/1 Roan Raider, Travelling Times, 33/1 Joyce´s Choice, Westborough,

Great stats but the race is so wide open they may not even help. NEVINSTOWN has a poor statisticaly profile. MILL BY THE STREAM would have been very interesting but the 0-34 record of 3 year olds in this race does concern me and that also pute me off EVANESCE. . There are too many factors against POP UP AGAIN and PREMIER GRAND. I Dont think I have mentioned the winner yet.. In terms of a selection I couldnt begin to fathom it out. FAR NOTE is very solid on the stats as is ABERLARD. I didnt find a lot wrong with FOX COVERT.

*************
Ayr 7.30 - 13/8 Onlytime Will Tell, 2/1 Mystic Man, 6/1 Ballyhurry, Samuel Charles, 8/1 Cat´s Whiskers, 25/1 Musiotal, 33/1 Lord Baskerville, Miss Wizz,
100/1 Gladys Aylward, Procreate,

Only 4 renewals so unsafe statistically but I would be inclined to look away from the favourite ONLYTIME WILL TELL. If you take the 31 claiming races that have been run over 7f in August since 1990 you find horses that had just 1 or 2 starts that year they have a 0-47 record and thats weak. Even horses that ran just 3 times in a season only won one race and less than 4 starts that year were just 1 winner from 70 that tried. I would have to oppose the favourite much as he is clearly well backed and well treated at the weights. You have to wonder why Dandy runs the fav is a Claimer when everything he has ever done before suggests he should be laid out for the Ayr Gold Cup, a race he was 6th in last year. The fact he has ran once since November 2004 suggests an injury and suggests he may now start to regress. He may have enough class to get away with it but his fitness and wellbeing concern me greatly.

*************

Ayr 8.00 - 4/5 Annibale Caro, 4/1 Pearl´s A Singer, 10/1 High Treason, King Zafeen, Tonight, 14/1 Parchment, 20/1 Singhalongtasveer, 25/1 Degree Of
Honor, 50/1 Andy Mal

ANNIBALE CARO 4/5 Has some powerful trends in his favour and some powerful ones against him despite the fact there are only 5 renewals and the stats must be considered unsafe because of that. I wouldnt want to oppose him myself and think He will win


*************

Haydock 2.15 - 8/11 David Junior, 7/2 Perfectperformance, 5/1 Notable Guest, 13/2 Welcome Stranger, 40/1 Opening Ceremony,

Tight stats. The record of horses coming from Goodwood is immense but its misleading as DAVID JUNIOR comes from the Sussex Staks and none of the "Goodwood last time " winners came from there. Appling the stats religioulst leaves you with either NOTABLE GUEST 11/2 or PERFECT PERFORMANCE
9/2 as more likely winners if you take the view that David Junior may be overraced this season. Not a race that can be sorted out completely with statistics but David Junior has enough negative points to stop me rushing in at 8-11 .

*************

Haydock 4.25 - 9/4 Literatim, 3/1 Landucci, 5/1 Royal Island, 13/2 Sew´N´So Character, 7/1 Flighty Fellow, 12/1 Dark Charm, Khanjar,

Unclear trends but Lightweights have dominated, and the record of "quick returners" is good which does point to Landucci at 4/1 but the trends in the race are very unclear and he would not be anything more than token suggestion.

*************

Newmaket 2.20 - 7/2 Aberdovey, 4/1 Kindlelight Debut, 11/2 Zayn Zen, 13/2 Miss Pebbles, My Princess, 7/1 Enford Princess, 15/2 Keyaki, 9/1 Easy Mover, 20/1 In The Pink, 33/1 Flamjica,

There have only been 5 renewals of this race but the strongest trends emerging are that lightly raced horses dominate as do the 3 year olds and this points to both ZAYN ZEN 6/1 and ABERDOVEY 9/2 as easily the best statistical profiles in the race. The record of horses that raced 9 times or more before is pretty awful and just 1-42. The only winner was in 2002 in a race where 8 of the 10 runners were also overraced. The 1-42 record needs attention as there were 7 beaten favourites and 20 horses that started 9/1 or shorter. I would really only want horses with less than 9 starts which in this race points to ABERDOVEY (8 runs) and ZAYN ZEN (8 runs). I dont fancy KINDLELIGHT DEBUT 6/1 . This is a step up in class from her 0-70 Ladies race win at Chepstow and I feel she is likely to run into too many classier fillies and improving types. I dont think she can give weight for age away to the 3 year olds. win Because 3 year olds dominate (older horses are just 1-31) it does all point to the two I have shortlised. I do prefer ZAYN ZEN .She is just about my best bet of the day with a saver on Aberdovey.
*************

Newmarket 2.50 - 11/4 Confidential Lady, 3/1 Spinning Queen, 5/1 Nasheej, 6/1 Deveron, 7/1 Ice Princess, 8/1 Rising Cross, 20/1 Hill Of Grace, Skyelady,

The big "stat" in the Solera Stakes is the unbelievable record of "once raced" horses which does point to ICE PRINCESS. Once raced horse have had less than a quarter of the runners but have won 60% of the renewals in a race where "Overraced" horses like Confidential Lady (4 starts) and Rising Cross (7 starts) with 4 or more career starts are just 1 from 33 that tried. SPINNING QUEEN 3/1 drops in class but no horse has done that coming from a Group 2 race before as the "up and coming" types have performed far better. Both Confidential Lady and Rising Cross are the most "prolific" winners in the race with 3 wins each but horses that won twice or more before lkining up here have a 0-24 record. Confidential Lady also carries a Listed Race penalty and all 11 horses that tried to defy that penalty were beaten. She has it all to do statistically. The "Once raced" brigade are best but it may seem a little optimistic to hope that ICE PRINCESS the only "once raced" animal can win this at 8/1 its very clear that she has by far the best profile based on past renewals.

*************

Newmarket 3.25 - 6/1 Spirit Of France, 7/1 Buy On The Red, 8/1 Desert Destiny, 9/1 Irony, 10/1 Presto Shinko, 11/1 Bahiano, Look Here´s Carol, Marshman, 12/1 Moayed, Sabbeeh, 14/1 Capable Guest, Ettrick Water, Millennium Force, 16/1 Mutawaqed, My Paris, 20/1 Delphie Queen, 40/1 Josephus,

There have been 13 renewals. Horses aged 4-5-6 have dominated this race with the occasional 3 year old popping up. One of the most compelling stats in this race us that Horses that raced in Listed Class or higher in their careers before are just 1-85 and thats a huge statistic for saying the Classier types only fit that bill. If you concentrated solely in this race on horses aged 3-7 that had never ran in Listed Class of higher before you could have backed every runner, found the winner of 12 of the 13 renewals and made a £59 profit. There are only 6 horses in this race that this shortlist provides. This shortlist comprises of Presto Shinko , Buy On The Red , Spirit of France , Marshman, My Paris and Etterick Water. I would like to Narrow this list down. I am going to ignore the claims of Presto Shinko and Spirit Of France as they come from Glorious Goodwood. Horses that came from Glorious Goodwood though have an apaling 1-48 record for saying the meeting was ran just over a week ago. This broken down by all 11 horses coming from the Stewards Cup getting beaten (Today MOAYED 10/1 and PRESTO SHINKO 12/1 come from that race) and all 17 horses coming from the De Boar Stakes were beaten (Capable Guest and SPIRIT OF FRANCE 10/1) come from there. This leaves the most likely winners as BUY ON THE RED 14/1 , MARSHMAN 25/1 , MY PARIS 16/1 and ETTERICK WATER 14/1 . These are my shortlist. I quite like MY PARIS as he comes from the Bunbury Cup. Horses that came from the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket have a strong 4-18 record. I see Him and ETTERICK WATER and possibly Buy On The Red as the best statistical runners.

*************

Newmarket 4.30 - 4/5 Balance Of Power, 5/1 Gawain, 13/2 Bay Hawk, 8/1 Mineko, 14/1 Jamehir, 16/1 Gifted Musician, 20/1 Investment Wings, Newtown Villa, 25/1 Saltburn Lad, 50/1 Captain General,


The betting suggests BALANCE OF POWER 4/5 has a sound chance and faces the main threats from Bay Hawk 7/1 and Gawain 7/1 in an uncompetetive staying maiden. There are few in with a chance. This race has been ran 22 times and we are still waiting for a winner above 8/1 and the market is usually right . BAY HAWK is trying to improve a poor record of seasonal debutants in this race (1-18). I have no stats that can highlight any weakness in the favourite or indeed Gawain, but there is an interesting stat that may just highlight the chance of JAMEHIR at 20/1 and He may well be the value each way, or place only or without the favourite. He has ran 5 times before and on the rare occasions that this race has thrown up a horse with 4 or more starts they have done remarkably well. They have a 5 from 12 record. I can see JAMEHIR sneaking a place at least.

*************

Newmarket 5.00 - 5/2 Real Cool Cat, 11/2 Darghan, 7/1 Rock Lobster, 8/1 Bouquet, First Show, 9/1 Lyrical Way, 10/1 Halla San, 12/1 Unsuited, 14/1 Juste Pour L´Amour, 20/1 Rasid, 25/1 Easy Laughter, My Pension, Singlet, 66/1 Atlantic Breeze,

If you trust the stats from just 7 renewals you may expect a big price shock here. Experience has been a key issue. REAL COOL CAT 5/2f (6 races), FIRST SHOW 12/1 (5 races) , HALLA SAN 6/1 (11 races) and BOUQUET 14/1 (5 races) are all very inexperienced when you consider that in this race horses with 20 or fewer career starts have a 1 from 60 record which is poor. You could also point to the fact that DARGHAM 12/1 (18 races) and ROCK LOBSTER
14/1 (15 races) are also failing that stat. Where that stat may be Vulnerable, is that there are so many fancied runners that are technically too inexperienced. There have only been 7 renewals but if you take Horses aged 3-5 , they are incredibly just 1 from 76 , yet horses aged 6 and 7 that raced over 20 times before have a superb 6-15 record which firmly points to JUST POUR L'AMOUR 14/1 , UNSUITED 20/1 and LYRICAL WAY 20/1. I Do quite like REAL COOL CAT back in trip and with a 5 day absence and a Filly as Fillies score well in this race , but the experience and age stats do put me off betting a short priced favourite when you have 20/1 runners with perfect profiles. I would stay with any from JUST POUR L'AMOUR 14/1 , UNSUITED 20/1 or LYRICAL WAY 20/1.


******************************************************
******************************************************


Saturday's Statistics Message


Redcar 1.00 - 12 renewals and 164 runners
Redcar 1.00 - Less than 9 career starts is 1-21 as 13 + starts are best
Redcar 1.00 - Less than 6 starts this year is 1-57
Redcar 1.00 - All 12 horses that had ran in Listed race before lost
Redcar 1.00 - 4 and 5 year olds dominate (9-79) . Horses aged 6 or more are just 1-47 and 3 year olds 2-38
Redcar 1.00 - Horses that ran within 7 days are 0-33 and those that ran 32 + days ago are 1-28 so 8-31 days absence is best (11-103)
Redcar 1.00 - Horses coming from Class 6 are 0-35
Redcar 1.00 - Last time out winners are 0-21 and 6 were penalty carriers that lost
Redcar 1.00 - Horses dropping from 8f or more underperform (1-33)
Redcar 1.00 - Horses that didnt come from a Handicap underperform (1-27)
Redcar 1.00 - Horses from Doncaster are 4-15
Redcar 1.00 - Maidens are 0-21

Redcar 1.40 - 14 renewals and 169 runners
Redcar 1.40 - Unraced horses (0-16) and once raced horses (1-20) are weak as 2-6 starts are best
Redcar 1.40 - Fillies (10-97) lead Colts (4-72) and are almost twice as likely to win
Redcar 1.40 - Horses from Southwell (sand) are 3-13
Redcar 1.40 - Horses dropping from 7f are 0-43
Redcar 1.40 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 1-69

Redcar 2.40 - 9 renewals and 65 runners
Redcar 2.40 - Less than 7 career starts is 0-13
Redcar 2.40 - Less than 3 runs this year is 1-20
Redcar 2.40 - Horses from Musselburgh are 4-8
Redcar 2.40 - Any age can win but horeses aged 9 or more have a 5-10 record
Redcar 2.40 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-28
Redcar 2.40 - Fillies are 0-19
Redcar 2.40 - Horses that come from a 14f race or longer last time out are strong (7-23)
Redcar 2.40 - Maidens are 0-25

Redcar 4.15 - 11 renewals and 192 runners
Redcar 4.15 - Less than 13 career starts are 0-39
Redcar 4.15 - Less than 6 runs this season is 0-61
Redcar 4.15 - 3 year olds are 0-34 . Horses aged 8 or more are just 1-26
Redcar 4.15 - Fillies are 1-61
Redcar 4.15 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out are just 2-102
Redcar 4.15 - You want a horse thats been 1st or 2nd in their last 6 starts (others 2-104)
Redcar 4.15 - Horses from a Seller are 1-37
Redcar 4.15 - Horses that hadnt won at the distance are just 1-41

Ayr 6.00 - 5 renewals and 31 runners
Ayr 6.00 - 1 previous race (4-10) outscores unraced horses (0-12)
Ayr 6.00 - Horses at 6/1 and over are 0-22
Ayr 6.00 - Horses that were 2nd 3rd or 4th last time out are 5 from 8
Ayr 6.00 - Every winner came from a Class D maiden last time out
Ayr 6.00 - M Johnston is 2-4. J Goldie is 0-4 and L Perratt is 0-7

Ayr 8.00 - 5 renewals and 43 runners
Ayr 8.00 - Less than 7 careers starts is 0-18
Ayr 8.00 - Less than 6 starts this year is 1-25
Ayr 8.00 - Horses that ran within 15 days are 4-21 and strong
Ayr 8.00 - 5 horses carried a penalty. 3 won
Ayr 8.00 - All 5 horses coming from a maiden lost
Ayr 8.00 - Maidens are 1-24
Ayr 8.00 - Horses carrying 9st 7lbs or more are 3-8

Haydock 2.15 - 14 renewals and 95 runners
Haydock 2.15 - Every winner had between 3-13 starts (others 0-9)
Haydock 2.15 - Horses that raced 4 times or over this year may be overraced and are just 1 from 36
Haydock 2.15 - Horses from Goodwood are strong (5-14)
Haydock 2.15 - 3 and 4 year olds dominate (others 1-20)
Haydock 2.15 - Fillies are 0-5
Haydock 2.15 - Horses that started 12/1 or bigger are 0 from 30
Haydock 2.15 - Horses that have won either 2 or 3 times before won 13 of the 14 renewals

******************************************************
******************************************************