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Account Bet

No Bet

The Sooner today is out of the way the better. My Best Bet is IMPERIAL GAIN 3/1 in the 4.05 at Lingfield. Reasons below. The Uncomfortable factor about him is that he will be dropped in and could be last and He will have to negotiate a run. I think he has the Class to do this but it is a worry from a tactical viewpoint. Thats why he isnt an account bet. I Do like his chance a lot and think he is probably a true 9/4 chance.

* Tomorrow is the Start of Newmarkets Champion Stakes meeting and Ludlow. I will post the majority of the analysis tomorrow on the message board this afternoon and this evening. By Then a clear picture of whether there is an account bet tomorrow should emerge.


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Talking Points


* The Weekends Ante Post Races

The Dewhurst , Champion Stakes and The Cesarewitch are the big 3 Ante Post races at the Weekend. The Stats for the Dewhurst and Champion Stakes are pretty weak and hardly any edge can be gained from these races. Running plans in the Dewhurst are unclear at this stage. I want to have a very brief look at the Champion Stakes and then the Statistics for the Cesarevitch.

Newmarket 3.10 Saturday - Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo+) 1m2f

Oratorio (11/4), Alkaased (6/1), Rakti (7/1), Pride (8/1), Alexander Goldrun (10/1), Pinson (12/1), Chic (14/1), Rob Roy (14/1), Echo Of Light (16/1), Ace (20/1), Maraahel (25/1), Prospect Park (25/1), Layman (33/1), Mullins Bay (33/1), Touch Of Land (33/1), David Junior (50/1), Whazzat (200/1)

Not a lot I can say at this stage with no meaningful statistics in this race. There are a few horses that I couldnt bet. I am told rightly or wrongly that
Godolphins ECHO OF LIGHT Could only be considered in the event of a mudbath that would throw the race wide open but thats highly unlikely to happen. I am told CHIC has shown signs that She has had possibly had too much recently. I am also told that Stoute is running his horses in this race more out of hope than anything else and had he not been desperate to win the Trainers Championship he may not have ran anything. He must be aware that Aidan O Brien will probably win the Dewhurst which should seal the title unless Stoute bags a big race and they are fast running out. MATAAHEL isnt fancied to win this for Stoute and I am told that a Stoute victory here is unlikely but ROB ROY may well come out best of the Stoute runners. I think the ground may be going againt PRIDE who also looks pretty weak on Betfair out to 14/1 which doesnt augur well for her chance. PINSON is interesting at 12/1 but is He good enough ? The last 11 winners had all contested a Group 1 race. He hasnt as yet. We are down to 6 "possibles" at this stage.I am not keen on ALKAASED 6/1 at 10 furlongs. To assume he can win this at this trip you have to assume that Luca Cumani has had his trip wrong most of the year . Its also off putting that he is running here as his Arc preperation went wrong.I am not enamoured with ALEXANDER GOLDRUN 10/1 . This is her 8th Group 1 race of the campaign and to date and since my records go back to1987 the Champion Stakes has never been won by a horse thats ran as many times as she has before. No Champion Stakes has ever been won by a horse thats ran 7 times that campaign either. I wonder whether she needs a rest. The Main runners are therefore these

5/2 Oratorio
6/1 Rakti
14/1 Rob Roy
25/1 Prospect Park


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Newmarket Saturday 3:45 - Totesport Cesarewitch (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) 2m2f

Afrad (13/2), Elusive Dream (8/1), Land n Stars (8/1), Odiham (10/1), Sergeant Cecil (11/1), Baddam (12/1), King Revo (16/1), Lets Roll (16/1), Hippodrome (18/1), Escayola (20/1), Inchnadamph (20/1), Mr Ed (20/1), Race The Ace (20/1), Swift Sailor (20/1), Tempsford (20/1), Distant Prospect (25/1), Dr Sharp (25/1), High Action (25/1), Nation State (25/1), Big Moment (33/1), Cold Turkey (33/1), Cordial (33/1), Corrib Eclipse (33/1), Cover
Up (33/1), Fortune Island (33/1)

* 14 Renewals and 411 Runners
* Horses that had ran in Listed or Group Class before are 0-92
* Fillies have struggled in this race and only have a 1 from 66 record. That was Martin Pipes tough hurdler Miss Fara in 2002
* No strong Age stats but 7 year olds have the best record and in recent years the 3 year olds have struggled. They won it in 1998 but all 18 since unplaced
* Horses that carried a Penalty into this race struggled . From the 31 that tried only 1 suceeded, including 4 beaten favourites
* Recent renewals suggest a Low draw is a major disadvantage in this race as they are often forced wide through the contours of the track losing ground.
* Ideally Your horse should be 1-2-3-4-5 on his last start. (Others 2-151) although the 2 that bucked the trend did it in 2000 and 2003
* Horses that ran at 13 furlongs or less last time out are 0 from 62
* Horses that ran over 17f and over last time out are just 1 from 69
* Newmarket horses have just not done very well in this race with a 1 from 75 record
* Horses that carried 7st 9lbs or less are 0 from 48
* Horses beaten 10 lengths or more last time out are just 1-138
* Less than 3 career wins are 0-71


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Today's Racing


Going to have to be Brief Today.

You have 2 jumps cards without any statistics going back long. You have advertised "Good" ground with heavy rain forecast at both meetings. You have heavy rain overnight at Uttoxeter and its really a day where conditions dominate.I want to bypass WETHERBY as I dont know what the weathers going to do there and this track statistically is possibly the worst of all jumps tracks. I have never seen a trend there I believed .

LINGFIELD is the only Flat card. I wouldnt oppose Blue Grouse (2.20) but he is too short to bet but too good to oppose. Thats very much the Theme with Moktabes (2.55). He fails multiple trends in being so under and lightly raced but he is Far from your average Class 5 handicapper
and you dont see his sort often. You have a judgement about whether either Blue Grouse or Moktabes are value or not. I Think both are far too short but I wouldnt oppose either. My Best bets at Lingfield is IMPERIAL GAIN in the 4.05.


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Lingfield 4.05 - Dawson News Conditions Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) Winner 6f

7/2 Imperial Gain, 4/1 Cape Of Luck, Cavewarrior, 9/2 Brandywell Boy, Brunelleschi, 10/1 Soothsay, 12/1 Discotheque, 14/1 Richterhoffen, 66/1 Goodbye Girl, 200/1 Double Valentine

I Think there is a certain type of horse here thats favoured and I wouldnt look past IMPERIAL GAIN

IMPERIAL GAIN 100/30 looked very impressive to me on Video last time at Haydock. The racing Post stated he "Found plenty of trouble last time but may not have won". Having watched the tape I am certain he would have won as far as he wanted. No doubt in my mind. He was introduced at York in one of the best maidens of the year (Convivial Maiden) when coming 5th. He would have won last time at Haydock after getting boxed in for far too long. This All Weather shouldnt be any problem as he is American Bred.

This is a Conditions race that has been ran only 5 times before. This sort of race has only been run 15 times before at all tracks so it is a confused picture as to whats an idal type and whats not. What you have though is a collection of horses rated between 72 and 85 that are clustered together looking like Class 4 horses. If there is anything in this race thats better than a Class 4 animal then you have found the winner.

Brandywell Boy 9/2 is rated 85
Brunelleschi 10/1 is rated 82
Cape Of Luck 4/1 is rated 83
Cavewarrior 4/1 is rated 84
Richterhoffen 14/1 is rated 75
Discotheque 12/1 is rated 72

The "heart" of the race has its class limitions in and around the 0-80 class. Is IMPERIAL GAIN a better horse that that ? .

Truth is we dont know. I strongly suspect he is though. The very fact Peter Harris owns him suggests he may be. Walter Swinburn (whom I rate very highly) has now taken over Peter Harris's string but Peter Harris always retained the best 2 year olds when he was training in his own ownership.The Dam has to date produced 2 other Foals. They were rated 91 and 100. Both far better class than this race. The Maiden at York he was introduced in always produces decent colts that are usually all better than Class 4 at some stage. It is a lot of assumptive work but I really think IMPERIAL STRIDE is a better class of horse than his main rivals today.

Going back to the race statistically as I Said earlier there aree few clues. You can either take the 5 "Lingfield" renewals to form an impression of the likely type of the 15 "all track renewals" as a stronger guide. If You take the Lingfield races there is a Bias to 2 types of animals. These are horses that came from Maidens and not handicaps and Lightly raced horses. If you look at horses that had raced 5 or more times before they were 0-16 . Today the "exposed" types include Brandywell Boy 9/2 , Brunelleschi 10/1, Richterhoffen 14/1 and Goodbye Girl 33/1. In this Lingfield race the "Lightly raced" horses like IMPERIAL GAIN dominated. There is another issue about what "Type" a horse wins this. Do Experienced Handicappers win this or do Lightly raced Maidens outclass them ? So far horses that ran in this Lingfield race that came from a Handicap have yet to provide the winner. They are 0-14 as Maidens dominated with a 3-15 record. The "Handicap route" has been taken by Brunelleschi 10/1, Richterhoffen 14/1 and Goodbye Girl 33/1 in this race.

Last years winner (EMERALD LODGE ) was an similar type to IMPERIAL GAIN winning this on her 4rd start having ran in 3 maidens. The 2003 winner was exactly the same (DOOHULLA) . She won this on her 3rd start after 2 Maiden runs. The 2002 winner (STORMONT) won this on her 4th start after 2 Maiden runs and an abortive listed race on his 3rd start. The Admittedly "Brief" History of this race also strongly points to IMPERIAL GAIN as an ideal type for this race. From the 15 "all track" Conditions races that Mirror this one best you also see a lack of wins from anything taking the Handicapping Route. All 25 horses that came from a Handicap lost and I firmly believe that coming via that route isnt ideal . There was also a bias towards horses that had ran recently. Certainly No horse has won a race facing a similar absence that CAPE OF LUCK (82 days) and BRUNELLESCHI (54 days) face today.

CAVEWARRIOR is another Ideal type. He was introduced into another high quality maiden at Newmarket. He had done little wrong having won his maiden at Wolverhampton but he came last in the big Sales race at Doncaster when Badly drawn. You have to decide whether to forgive him that run or not and consider whether his stable are in strong enough form. My Point is simply that he is the "Ideal type" and with Frankie on board . CAVEWARRIOR and BRANDYWELL BOY look serious dangers but I prefer Walters horse. I still stand by my belief that IMPERIAL GAIN may just be a better horse than these and he is the pick and I just hope the race isnt run against him.


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UTTOXETER has Had plenty of overnight rain and it will be on the Soft Side.

I had planned to do a "Race Of The Day" in the 2.40 race.

9/4 Penny´s Crown, 5/2 Greencard Golf, 3/1 Sonic Sound, 11/2 Countback, 10/1 Kiev, 14/1 Waziya,

My Initial plan was to Oppose GREENCARD GOLF in this race as I was convinced that a 4 year old giving weight away to experienced older horses in a selling hurdle over an intermediate trip was a big statistical negative but I went off the race for a few reasons. I made a slight error in my research as I thought initially that this had never been done before but I did find a 4 year old that had achieved this. That said I do believe there is a strong bias to the older runners and 6 year olds in particular. What put me off was the fact GREENCARD GOLF was weak in the market and the edge was rapidly subsiding and when you looked at the runners I couldnt rule out a couple of the runners I felt I initilly could now the rain has come. I was going to tip PENNYS CROWN because I was happy to ignore her "Firm ground" flop last time at Exeter safe in the knowledge the rain is in her favour. However much as I like her chance today I couldnt rule out COUNTBACK who would just about win this on his form at this time of year in 2004 and from parents who revelled in the Mud. I also didnt feel I had enough evidence against SOINC SOUND who is very well backed. I had him "3rd best" here. These are so Bad that I didnt feel there was much hope of distinguishing between "awful" and "useless" types. I am still firmly against Greencard Golf but couldnt split a couple of the others and decided to abandon the race. I think the winner will either be PENNYS CROWN 11/4 or Countback 4/1.

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I Thought the rest of the Uttoxeter card offered little Hope. It isnt easy to oppose the 2 hot favourites on the card (The Cool Guy 1/2 or Refinement 1/4 ) especially as they are now both very short in the betting , but also impossible to tip them. The Favourite in the 4.25 has been pulled out throwing the race dangerously wide open and the card is now a mixture of unbackable horses at short prices and big field mystery races.

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