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Best Bet Of The Day

Ripon 4.55

(3) DAHMAN

9/2 Chandler
4/1 Skybet , Hills , Totalbet , Paddy Power, Ukbetting , Stan James


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Talking Points


* DAHMAN

Wouldnt be confident about him enough to make him an Account bet now that there are only 7 runners and he does have one or two dangers and question marks to answer. I do think he can win this race and there doesnt look many I am afraid of. I think if he wins it will make up for whats been a slow frustrating week. We have had 1 Account bet loser and a couple of BBOD losers. Glendening at Catterick last night clearly didnt stay having look to have the race won before fading. Its been a dissapointing week. Horses winning that were "Main dangers" but not saved on, the bets placing but not winning and its been tough going this week and I feel we have hit too many crossbars. Hopefully DAHMAN will change that and at 4/1 I am staking him to recover my stakes from he 3 main losing bets this week. Ideally I would have wanted him Each Way at 5/1 with
8 runners. We have to bet 4/1 win only though and thats a far harder situation.


* SUNDAY

Tomorrow is Pontefract and Bath. There are stats for this meeting but I dont want to do a big E mail message as I have other tasks to perform. What I plen to do tonight, tomorrow and possibly Monday is to Post on the Message Board rather than send E Mails. I will Post some thoughts on Sundays Racing on the Board , and in the next 24-36 Hours I will also Post all the statistics for Yorks Ebor Meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) next week as I know a few of you are going to the meeting. By Monday Morning , and possibly earlier than that.


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Today's Racing

4:55 - Ripon Cathedral Handicap (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 1m4f (1m4f10y)

5/2 Red Racketeer, 7/2 Given A Choice, 5/1 Dahman, Vale De Lobo, 6/1 Patxaran, 12/1 Market Trend, 16/1 Ceiriog Valley

DAHMAN is ready to win this. There are a few dangers but I think he is value at 4/1 . He has the favourite to beat. RED RACKETEER5/2 is a lightly raced improving handicapper. He has a knee action and will love todays going and he is a legitimate danger but I think he is going to struggle to give 9lbs to DAHMAN. He is probably only a Handicapper, and giving weight and experience to DAHMAN wont be easy especially as the race he won at Ripon was inferior numerically and on the AOR's to DAHMAN's Goodwood 3rd. RED RACKETEER has also got to prove he stays this far.

I cant have PATXARAN 6/1. She is a Filly (They are 0-19 in this race) , She has a 58 day absence, and although she has won when Fresh she has been winning in Claimers and 0-70 races. Her last run in a 0-76 saw her beaten against her own sex. This is a 0-89 Class 3 race today. She was outclassed in this grade as a juvenile and I think she will be today. How can you bet a Haslam Filly after a long absence only getting 4lbs from a Godolphin runner, especially when his stable are hardly flying.

VALE DE LOBO 5/1 was behind DAHMAN at Goodwood last time and I dont think she will reverse the form. She may not stay anyway. She was dying at Goodwood and this is a furlong further and her sire never ran past 10f and has never sired a 12f winner yet. I think she is unproven. She may have reached her class limitation anyway. She started 25/1 last time. Started off in Selling races, swopped trainers several times before, and although a smart type I think over this 12f trip I would be surprised if she could beat DAHMAN.

I Cant see the Rain helping GIVEN A CHOICE 7/2. James Given is on record as saying "the drier the ground the better" and his Sire's offspring have a better
record on faster surfaces. I dont think a horse that couldnt win a maiden after 5 races , before winning a 0-78 and 0-80 on fast ground can give 7lbs to DAHMAN who has just come from a 0-86 handicap on ground that could be softer than he wants. MARKET TREND has a long absence to defy, is a filly, and
is weak in the market .

CERIOG VALLEY 11/1 is dropping in the weights and could be competetive off 8st 1lbs. She does have a few questions to answer. She is a filly, and racing once since May might just need another run and another drop in the weights before she wins. She could be fancied against her sex but I just think this is marginally beyond her.

I Think DAHMAN is the bet here. The main question mark could be the ground but I dont think that will be a problem. He is bred for soft ground, it wa soft last
time out when he recorded a career best and although he did flop as a juvenile at Sandown in a soft ground maiden I feel that day a Mile was asking far too much for a once raced horse and he wasnt strong enough. This year he won his maiden at Windsor first time out , (form that worked out really well) and was rated 80 by the handicapper. His 2 defeats since are easy to explain. He hated the track at Epsom in a Classified race, but still ran well in 2nd behind Danehill Willy who has just nearly won a handicap off 91. That Epsom race was a very good run in my opinion for saying the track hurt his chance, and for saying he had ran just once that year and came from a Maiden (which was a big statistical negative that day). Nothing wrong at all with that run. Last time at Goodwood on his handicap debut he again wasnt ideally suited to the track but ran a solid race staying on well in 3rd in a 0-97 Handicap. He looks like he will appreciate the extra furlong today and his stable are now in far better form. I Like the fact the Handicapper didnt move him up the weights for his last run and back on a more conventional track, in a smaller field I think he will outclass this field today.


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