No Account Bet

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Talking Points

* Yesterday/Today/Tomorrow

A Few points about these days. There will be No Message tomorrow. Its Just Goodwood on Wednesday so time for a day's break as that card doesnt make any appeal. They have messed about with the distances of a couple of races tomorrow , the Predominate is never a race you can bet sensibly bet in and its a day best left alone.
Today is again quite difficult. My Stats today do not open many doors and they are not compelling either and with big
fields I think we are again slightly vulnerable today. We certainly were yesterday. The message didnt oull aby trees
up. The best bet , albeit a big priced horse ran poorly and although there was a 12/1 winner mentioned there was plenty
of losers as well and I wasnt at all happy about the cards or the message. I think we are just in a mini period of big fields weak stats and its pretty hard to find winners at decent prices.

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Today's Racing


In terms of Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow I think its a case of just battting through 3 rough days. David is away
in Norfolk (although he has left me bet for thursday) for a few days, the stats are are in the middle of a 3 day period
when they are poor , the rain has been back and the field sizes are big in a lot of races at the moment so its a matter of just getting through them as unscathed as possible before we can return to the right races and bet with confidence again. I intend to skip over the races I cant sort and just concentrate on the small number of races with some potential for stronger opinions. I havent done Leicester (no stats there tonight either), but I have had a good look at the other cards.



Redcar 2.40 - 4/1 Intricate Web, 11/2 Mamore Gap, 13/2 Archirondel, 8/1 Regent´s Secret, 9/1 Lucayan Dancer, 10/1 Neckar Valley, 12/1 Bartra Rock, Instructor, 14/1 Blaeberry, Charnock Bates One, 16/1 Five Years On, Mister Arjay, 20/1 Washbrook, 25/1 Bright Sun, Compton Dragon,
40/1 Kaliyoun,

I think MAMORE GAP's chance is impossible to assess. He is well handicapped but he is a very difficult horse with such a poor strike rate that back up in class he coudld easily get beaten and revert back to type. I Dont see the strong argument for Intricate Web . I can see he has a realistic
chance but no better than several other market leaders. NEKKAR VALLEY looked out of form last time. What you really want is a 5 year old or possibly a 4 year old that is improving past his handicap mark and they are think on the ground. REGENT 'S SECRET is one and his form is tied up
with ARCHIRONDEL . Both ran 6 days ago here and both were hampered. I marginally prefered ARCHIRONDEL who just had a bit more cruising speed even. BLAEBERRY 20/1 could improve a lot for this step up in trip on pedigree and I am not ruling her out much as she is a 3 year old filly. I liked quite a few of these on video. I dont trust the stats in this race . There has been good money for FIVE YEARS ON (20/1-14/1) but he is statistically weak and is hard to make a case for , much as the gamble is noted. If I had to pick the most "Interesting" runner on tape it was INSTRUCTOR 8/1 from Richard Fahey's . He actually won a far better handicap last febuary on the all weather Its clear that if he is as good on turf as he is on grass he is a well handicapped horse. Watching him at Pontefract last time I thought he handles tenderly and may not have been
there to do his best. If he is here today to run his best race I can see him winning but there are other conundrums. Horses could be using this as a prep race for the Zetland Gold Cup in 2 weeks time. Its hard to get a confident feel to anything but all things being equal I marginally preferred INSTRUCTOR. That said he is weak in the betting (8/1-11/1) and this isnt a horse you would want on the drift. REGENTS SECRET has been the best backed horse here and that Money may be the better guide than me in this race. No Selection.

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Redcar 3.10 - 7/2 Sharaby, 5/1 Dispol Isle, 6/1 Trafalgar Square, Ushindi, 7/1 Moonmaiden, 8/1 Secret Cavern, 10/1 Tarkeez, 12/1 Dark Champion, 14/1 Diamond Hombre, 20/1 Desert Leader, Noorain, 33/1 Haroldini, 40/1 Jonnyem, 66/1 The Terminator, 100/1 Carmarthen Belle, Silloth Spirit,


No stats in this "new" race and plenty of unknown factors. SECRET CAVERN 10/1 is a bit of an unknown quantity on his seasonal debut. I think with the ground fast its hard to know how DISPOL ISLE will get on. From a form perspective she would be a very sound bet on soft ground because her 2 year old form, and her last run look well up to this. The ground is a doubt though .MOONMAIDEN has Fitness issues . We dont know why she has been off the track almost 6 weeks or how wound up she is . From what we do know we can draw limited conclusions. USHINDI to my eyes will need another race to be fit. Decent chance on last years Nursery form, and she will appreciate this drop to maiden class but she was under the cosh too early for me last time and looked to need more runs . She is also reported as "Ungenuine" . Dont like her . SHARABY is probably capable of better than most of these but she is a little ungenuine and she may not put it all in. She wouldnt be a bad place only bet if she drifts out but as a win bet she carries some sort of financial health warning. I dont know why DIAMOND HOMBRE 14/1 is a bigger price than TRAFALGAR SQUARE 7/1 because he beat him easily last time, he looked far better on video and he looked far the more likely of the two to be suited to the drop in trip to me. I dont quite see what he has done wrong and I like him. This is after all a maiden for horses rated up to 70 and he is rated 70 so you can argue him on a point of class anyway. Hard to draw a firm conclusion with no stats and unknown factors about 3 of the market leaders or how genuine the favourite is.


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Redcar 3.40 - 5/1 Mistress Twister, 6/1 Little Jimbob, Mystic Man, 7/1 Stoic Leader, Tough Love, 9/1 She´s Our Lass, 10/1 Will He Wish, 12/1 Brief Goodbye, 14/1 Efidium, Langford, Takes Tutu, 20/1 True Night, 33/1 Green Pirate,


Again no stats , and what we do know isnt enough to be confident in a fierce looking handicap. Stressing again that we have no statistics, I would imagine that it would be better to have multiple runs this year rather than just 1 race. It would take a very good performance to win a 0-85 with just 1 race this year and I think the likes of Mistress Twister 7/1 (weak in the betting) , Tough Love 8/1 , Langford 14/1 , She's Our Wish 16/1 and Will He Wish 18/1 may all be better with another couple of runs behind them. I think LITTLE JIMBOB is frustrating and I wasnt too enamoured by him on video last time. The horses that have several warm up races do catch my eye more. STOIC LEADER is one but I think MYSTIC MAN is a better horse and given the fact there has been strong money for him (6/1-9/2) , he loves the trip and ground and he has twice won from a higher mark I can understand why that money has come. Its not an easy race though but MYSTIC MAN would appear to have more cards to play than most. I liked him a lot last time on ground that may have been a bit bit tacky in a better race than this, over a trip that was as sharp as he wants it and he does look to have by far the best profile in this race.


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Redcar 4.10 - Evs Scotty´s Future, 4/1 Cordage, 7/1 Donna´s Double, 8/1 Colway Ritz, 12/1 Arms Acrossthesea, Face The Limelight, 20/1 Southern Bazaar, 25/1 Lottie, 66/1 Simply Sid,

This is a far better race than the renewal last year won by ARMSCROSSTHESEA and he was in better form last year as well before taking this. I certainly wouldnt bet CORDAGE with doubts about his inexperience, the ground, his downgrade in stable and his age against older horses. You could also argue against him on grounds of fitness and stableform. There has been some money for SOUTHERN BAZAAR 20/1 into 14/1. He is a well bred ex Barry Hills Cast off . Thought I better watch him on tape. I liked him . He ran over 14f at Wolves and now drops in trip. I am not sure about the trip as he looked to stay last time but I did like his crusing speed and he looked to retain plenty of ability. I can see why some are betting him at fancy prices and I wouldnt want to lay him. There has also been good money for FACE THE LIMELIGHT (14/1-10/1) . I watched him on tape and thought he ran a nice race and couldnt rule him out in this class. COLWAY RITZ doesnt do it for me at the moment. He looks to be a shadow of himself. It comes down to whether you want to take on the "Class" horse SCOTTY'S FUTURE who is unproven at this trip.To be fair to him he is the best horse in the race and has a sound chance, but he is tricky and a short price and he doesnt jump out as a short priced horse I would want to lump on. It may be that SOUTHERN BAZAAR or FACE THE LIMELIGHT are the interesting each way alternatives to the favourite at big prices.

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Beverley 2.20 - 6/4 Little Trump, 3/1 Silver Rocket, 6/1 My Lady Valentine, 7/1 Twilight Avenger, 10/1 Baytown Lulu, 12/1 Happy Harry, 20/1 Charlie Hather, 33/1 Beautiful South, 66/1 Baysgarth Park,

On the betting it does look a match between LITTLE TRUMP and SILVER ROCKET but I dont neccearily agree. There is a strong Bias to fillies in this race. In fact the last 4 winners were all female and the 5lbs sex allowance does appear to make a difference. This race is dominated in
numbers by Fillies anyway so its not such a great stat. LITTLE TRUMP who is a Filly , may be able to use her sex allowance succesfully to compensate for her 5lbs penalty for winning on Sunday. She is attractive with such a recent run but she could be better drawn and she is tempremental and at 15/8 on a track that can be tough if you cant get the right position I would not be looking to bet her at her current odds. Second favourite SILVER ROCKET isnt the natural alternative for me. What I dont like about her is that she is tiny , and isnt the sort of horse you want to
go into a battle with over Beverleys spring trip when fighting for the rail could be an issue. Its a problem I feel which is perhaps why she has been dropped to the bottom grade. The other filly MY LADY VALENTINE is in the worst stall so it may be the turn of the colts . TWILIGHT
AVENGER has nothing to reccomend him for me and the dreadful record of juvenile debutants for Karl Burke sugegsts HAPPY HARRY wont win. BAYTOWN LULU would be value at 12/1 if we knew she liked fast ground. She does have the look of a softer ground horsebut I think there are grounds for optimism on breeding. She is also a course winner. Shes well drawn, and shes very fit and experienced. Yes she has ground to make up on LITTLE TRUMP who easily beat her on Sunday, but BAYTOWN LULU has been off the track 24 days and she may well have needed that race. I also think that defeat will have inflated her odds a lot as many will not see why she would reverse the form with LITTLE TRUMP. At 14/1 she may be worth a tenner to reverse that form in a race that wont take much winning.

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Beverley 2.50 - 15/8 Curtain Bluff, 9/4 Arnprior, Kahramana, 10/1 Bachelor Affair, 20/1 Indian Flyer, 33/1 House Of Kaiser, Sonic Anthem, 50/1 Avontuur

If all 8 runners go , with 4 rank outsiders it does look a very sexy race for each way betting with 3 places available and just 4 likely horses running for those places. Favourite CURTAIN BLUFF has only looked pretty modest so far and certainly looks opposable. David Loder introduced an unraced horse to win this in 2003 and tries the same with KAHRAMANA and she cant be ruled out in such a weak race. Neither can ARNPRIO who ran well when seemingly unfancied at Redcar. I Think it may be worth taking a look at BACHELOR AFFAIR. If they start to bet him I would follow that money in. His stable are in form, and 2 runs as a juvenile will have taught him a lot and last years winner was a seasonal debutant that last ran at the previous years October Cambridgeshire meeting as BACHELOR AFFAIR does. He looks to have only 1 horse to beat to at least place and Willie Jarvis has had plenty of winners with similar profiles to him. He hasnt been gelded. There is no reason to think he may not be better than any of these. Newmarket stables have farmed this race over the years and he may be the next. It is a "Guess" but no more so than guesing how good the unraced Loder is , and guessing how good he may need to be. Obviously strength in the market would make my arguments a lot stronger .


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Beverley 3.20 - 3/1 Double Vodka, 7/2 Granston, 6/1 Wing Commander, Young Mr Grace, 15/2 Riley Boys, 8/1 Everest, 10/1 Bridgewater Boys, Silverhay, 20/1 Alchemist Master,

You would have to have a raised eyebrow about why YOUNG MR GRACE is 22/1 on Betfair . Yes he was well beaten last time out but Easterby is 2 from 6 in this race and both his 2 previous races were with horses well beaten last time. It usually pays to consider the market in these situations
though and much as it could be a "Put away" he probably wont win. Statistically an unconvincing race but the stats do suggest you want more than 1 race this year and thats a doubt about the favourite DOUBLE VODKA. Only 1 horse from 28 has won this without 2 starts or more that year although this is a small field and Mark Johnston is capable of beating most negative stats. I wouldnt bet him at his current price in light of his exposure this year but I certainly couldnt make him a strong negative and you can question him with a 6 week absence and he isnt proven yet on ground this fast. RILEY BOYS has some fast ground form but I think he is better with some cut in the ground and WING COMMANDER hasnt looked "ready " to win just yet . Overall a trappy race but GRANSTON is in good form, he is well entered up this week and loves the conditions and he may be a safer option that Double Vodka.

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Beverley 3.50 - 9/2 Gurrun, 7/1 Along The Nile, Fen Game, 8/1 Comeintothespace, 9/1 Carpet Ride, 10/1 Arthurs Dream, 11/1 King Zafeen, 12/1 Generous Measure, Mary Gray, Swell Lad, 14/1 Three Boars, 20/1 Forest Viking, Royal Wedding, 25/1 Eborarry, Good Investment, Kristalchen, Take A Mile, 33/1 Kerry´s Blade,

Initially I was interested in CARPET RIDE and FEN GAME. The reasons were that FEN GAME is a Gosden horse in a handicap attracting serious early money for him , and CARPET RIDE was a horse David told me worked very well last week with Call Me Max who would be topweight in this race. One stumbling block was the poor record of horses that ran just 3 times. These types are just 1-20 and it covers horses who
have been handicapped , and although possibly well handicapped, they havent yet had a taste of handicap experience and may be a little inexperience. This is after all an 18 runner handicap and both horses could be better drawn. Watching them on video I felt both were crying out for this step up in trip, but neither impressed me much at all . Neither are horses I would want to bet at this stage. The Trouble is what alternatives are there as not that many are under 25/1 in the betting. The natural assumption would be to side with GURRUN but he would be the most exposed
winner ever of this race and with 3 turf runs and 5 sand runs this year already he may just be a little exposed with 15 career starts. We know that 6 of the previous 9 winners ran less than 6 times before and nothing so exposed has won. The same could be said for COMEINTOTHESPACE as well. Whilst I seem to be suggesting massive priced horses at the moment , I do think ARTHURS DREAM has a very sound chance. First of all he is one of the strongest statistical runners in the race. He is both lightly raced and does have handicap experience . On his handicap debut last time at Chepstow he was backed from 20/1 to 8/1 and ran really well to be 2nd to a Cumani handicapper who could be usefull . Yes that was soft ground but on breeding there is no problem with this switch to fast ground and it may actually help him. That was a similar class race to this , and he is a Colt and hasnt been gelded so you would assume he had potential and lacked any significant temprement. At 16/1 he could well pop up at 16/1 and he seems to have a far better chance than his market position. ARTHURS DREAM is frely available at 16/1 and I would prefer him to some of the more fancied runners who I feel do have questions to answer

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Beverley 4.20 - 6/4 Karliyna, 11/4 Naivety, 4/1 Cheerleader, Primrose Lane, 12/1 Longing For Cindy, 40/1 Bollin Ruth, Ingleby Cross, 100/1 Esquillon, French Gold, La Mago


NAIVETY may not be "Off" drifting from 3/1 to 14/1 on a 3rd handicapping run. CHEERLEADER is unraced and therefore an unknown quantity . Unraced horses are only 1-16 in this race but one has won and most were outsiders so I wouldnt rule this horse out statistically. On the negative side she is reported as being a lightly framed filly which isnt good, but she was also considered usefull enough to have been given an Oaks and Ribblesdale entry and that makes her a serious threat in this race. On paper there are only 4 posible winners and it may well be a match between her and KARLIYNA. I Havent spoken to David about this Stoute Filly but I know that on her debut she wasnt wound up , didnt have a gun put to her head before the race and she wasnt fancied. She also has Oaks and Riobblesdale entries and the market suggests she will win. I wouldnt bet her at 8/11 but I wouldnt oppose her with an unraced horse either.

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Beverley 4.50 - 15/8 Summer Charm, 7/1 Golden Gate, 8/1 Estancia, 11/1 Bellalou, Emma Lilley, 12/1 Figaro´s Quest, Inn For The Dancer, 14/1 Legally Fast, Orion Bell, 16/1 Finland, Trigony, Woodford Consult, 20/1 Pennestamp, 25/1 Whirling,

There is a definate and strong high weight bias here and I like both Summer Charm and GOLDEN GATE and I feel with 4 places available GOLDEN GATE is the best bet here. SUMMER CHARM has slightly the better form but she is quite exposed now. She would certainly be statistically vulnerable with so many races this year and at a far bigger price GOLDEN GATE may beat her. She ran in snatches over 10f last time
but ran very well to be second after finding trouble in running. His dam loved this track winning 4 times here before and I think he is the value .

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Today's Stats


Redcar 2.10 - 12 renewals and 128 runners
Redcar 2.10 - If you have ran already a run within 15 days is best (6-29) over an absence of 16 + days (1-34)
Redcar 2.10 - Claiming jockeys are only 1-18
Redcar 2.10 - T Easterby is 0-13
Redcar 2.10 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-81

Redcar 2.40 - 10 renewals and 127 runners
Redcar 2.40 - 4 + races this season is 1-28
Redcar 2.40 - Horses aged 6 or more are 0-26
Redcar 2.40 - Horses wearing headgear before are 1-32
Redcar 2.40 - Horses that ran in Listed race or higher are just 1-25
Redcar 2.40 - Claiming jockeys are just 1-25
Redcar 2.40 - Horses at 25/1 and over are 1-60
Redcar 2.40 - Horses that came from a race under 9f last time are 1-41
Redcar 2.40 - Northern trained runners are 1-69
Redcar 2.40 - Less than 9st is 2-71 as highwer weights dominate

Beverley 2.20 - 18 renewals and 203 runners
Beverley 2.20 - Unraced horses (2-55) and once raced (4-64) underperform as 2-3-4 starts are best (12-80)
Beverley 2.20 - Fillies (13-130) score better than Colts (5-73)
Beverley 2.20 - M W Easterby is 0-16

Beverley 2.50 - 13 renewals and 113 runners
Beverley 2.50 - Horses that ran within 15 days are 0-31
Beverley 2.50 - Horses coming from Newmarket last time are 6-13 and Thirsk are 3-9
Beverley 2.50 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 0-56
Beverley 2.50 - Newmarket runners have dominated (10-33)

Beverley 3.20 - 9 renewals and 82 runners
Beverley 3.20 - Horses making their seasonal debut (0-9) or with 1 race this year (1-19) underperform as 3/4 runs are best (5-22)
Beverley 3.20 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-27
Beverley 3.20 - Tim Easterby is 2-6

Beverley 3.50 - 9 renewals and 110 runners
Beverley 3.50 - 4 or more races this year are 0-14 . Seasonal debutants are just 1-16
Beverley 3.50 - Horses with 3 runs underperform (1-20) and no horse with 13 or more starts has won (0-6)
Beverley 3.50 - Last time out 1st or 2nd places are 0-16
Beverley 3.50 - Horses coming from Class D are best (7-55)
Beverley 3.50 - Horses dropping in trip from 11f or more are 0-14
Beverley 3.50 - M Johnston is 0-6. T Easterby is 0-7

Beverley 4.20 - 9 renewals and 84 runners
Beverley 4.20 - Seasonal Debutants (5-32) beat Those with 1 race this year (3-35) who beat 2 + runs this year (1-17)
Beverley 4.20 - Unraced horses are 1-16
Beverley 4.20 - Horses older than 3 are 0-14
Beverley 4.20 - Claiming jockeys are 0-13
Beverley 4.20 - Horses at 12/1 and over are 0-42
Beverley 4.20 - Northern runners are 0-29

Beverley 4.50 - 10 renewals and 134 runners
Beverley 4.50 - Just 1 race this year (1-31) or 5 or more races this year (0-18) look weak
Beverley 4.50 - Horses that didnt run within 31 days are 1-31
Beverley 4.50 - Claiming jockey are 0-20
Beverley 4.50 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 0-85
Beverley 4.50 - Horses that came from a race with 14 or more runners in it are 0-50
Beverley 4.50 - Horses carrying less than 9st are 2-91 as highweights dominate.
Beverley 4.50 - T Easterby is 0-9