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Talking Points


Still not getting any better. Only 2 Meetings again today. Both have been rain affected and finding Angles and Decent value horses is nigh on impossible in this short early week period. I may well very soon start adding some Jumps Stats and angles over the sticks if they are there.

I am forced into going "No Bet" today. The race of the day is the Brighton 2.00. I think KEEL 7/2 is the one to be on but I would also consider a saver on RUBENSTAR at 20/1 in the same race. I could make these horses a small account bet but I am going to wait. Keel is a little bit weak in the market which worries me from Jamie Osbornes stable on his 3rd start. I still think he is the one to be on and
I am not ruling out Rubenstar. The racing does get better towards the middle/end of this week. We need it to as the oppurtunities are not there at the moment and the rain makes it harder.


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Statistical Negatives

None Today

We now stand at 24 from 27 with the Negatives. Both horses lost yesterday but I was uncomfortable about how well they ran and I think I need to be carefull and not get sloppy by giving horses that are weak statistically rather than completely unsuited to the conditions. You get into bother when 2 things happen. When you add horses that are not clear cut negatives and strongly argued. Secondly when
horses drift out and the market is being influenced. Yesterdays losing negative Pine Cone did get beaten
but ran 2nd drifting out to 10/1 and had she won that spoils a lot of previoulsy successful negatives and
thats going to hurt someone. You cant lay these horses blindly in my opinion. Far better to bet around them
and oppose them with something better in the race. Today nothing merits the standard I want to impose.


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Today's Racing


The Race of the Day is the 2.00 at Brighton and I have very little anywhere else. The Statistics today are very poor and thats why. The only other race I could dig up any trends for was the 2.30 at Brighton and that is not based on trends from that particular race, but merely from other tracks running similar races.


Brighton 2.30 -6/5 Fiveoclock Express, 7/2 Prairie Law, 6/1 Gameset´N´Match, 7/1 River Of Diamonds, 10/1 Esperance, 20/1 Ninah, 25/1 Louve Heureuse, Oh Sunny Boy

I Think FIVEOCLOCK EXPRESS will probably win unless the ground gets very soft. There are No Past renewals of this race but we have 39 identical races at other tracks. One interesting factor is that all 39 winners had ran in at least a Class 4 race before which is something PRAIRIE LAW 7/2 has not yet done. All 64 horses that hadnt run in a Class 4 race before were beaten. ESPERANCE 10/1 isnt really well treated by the conditions of this race. Because he won a Banded race in March he has aquired a 6lbs penalty which seems harsh. He is being asked to carry a weight that no previous horse has been asked to carry in the 39 identical races and he may struggle with that. Also carrying that penalty are FIVEOLOCK EXPRESS and PRARIE LAW. I dont fancy PRAIRIE LAW simply because he has a Penalty, and carries a higher weight than any horse has done in the 39 similar renewals yet has not run in the same grade as all of those 39 winners. I also dont fancy RIVER OF DIAMONDS 7/1who would be one of the least experienced winners with just 6 starts. I feel thats a little short of experience and the fact she has had just 2 races this year also concerns me. If you take horses that had just 2 races that season, they are pretty poor and have only got a 2-49 record. Take horses with 4 or more runs this year and they score much better and are at least 3 times more likely to win. RIVER OF DIAMONDS also has a 71 days absence. That could be a problem. Horses that didnt run within 7 weeks of their last run had a 2-80 record so its asking a lot for her to defy an absence as well as experience and just 2 runs this year. Although you can fancy GAMESET 'N' MATCH he would be far better off in a handicap with FIVEOCLOCK EXPRESS Who should be up to carrying the penalty. I dont think he is value but he is the most likely winner.

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Race Of The Day


Brighton 2.00 - 5/2 Trophy Pride, 11/4 Flower Market, 4/1 Keel, 5/1 Cherish, 10/1 Squirtle, 16/1 Hasty Passion, Rubenstar,

I Think KEEL 3/1 is the Most likely winner of this race and RUBENSTAR should be a Saver at 25/1


KEEL 3/1 and RUBENSTAR (33/1) are the only Colts in this race and Colts dominate. If you look at all Maidens at Brighton in August at this trip you can see how Colts dominate. Fillies are only 1 from 47. This includes 16 horses that started less than 7/1 and 4 beaten favourites . The only winner was a Mark Prescott horse in 2001 in a race where the Fav , and second Favourite were Fillies. The Mark Prescott horse that won also had the advantage of 2 previous starts which no filly has today. The Female horses trying to improve that poor record today are Trophy Pride 5/2 , Flower Market 11/4 , Cherish 7/1, Squirtle 16/1 and Hasty Passion 33/1 . If this statistic fails today it will simply be down to the fact that the race is top heavy with Fillies and they dominate numerically. Assuming you can ignore Hasty Passion (33/1 on betfair) we are left with 6 likely winners. We should be safe in doing that as there has never been a winner over 8/1 in these races in the last 15 years . Looking at some sex and experience statistics, We know that Colts are favoured. We know that horses that ran more than once are favoured. Therefore a Colt that has had more than 1 race before must have a strong advantage over an unraced Filly. If you take Colts with 2 or more starts they have won 11 of these races from just 32 runners. If you take Fillies that have not had more than 1 race before they are 0 from 19 . This Angle is down to experience and fitness and this counts for quite a bit at this age group on a difficult track like this.I want to be against the "Once raced fillies" despite their numerical advantage.

I Feel I would have to oppose favourite TROPHY PRIDE 5/2 for several reasons. The Main one would be as she is a once raced filly as explained above. That has to be a concern especially as she is also the shortest priced horse and she is quite a late foal (April) she is younger than most of her rivals today. I also think that being by Lion Cavern she wouldnt be certain to appreciate any heavy rain or cut in the ground we may get at Brighton today. I quite liked her on video last time. She finished ahead of SQUIRTLE (I dont like her as a backward May Foal) and she will come on a lot for the run as she didnt look 100% tuned up but I just feel she can be opposed today against a Twice raced Colt like Keel .

I really cant have CHERISH. She is bred for a lot further as a 3 year old. There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree and she looks a longer term prospect and is
owned by a Patient owner. Its no encouragement for her that she started 66/1 on her debut at Pontefract . She got outpaced that day. I cant see her being competetive today as she runs over a trip that takes 7 seconds shorter time to run. Putting that into perspective, and the fact she is a "Once raced" filly I cant believe that CHERISH is going to improve enough to win this race. Shes a negative.

FLOWER MARKET 11/4 is a once raced filly and quite strong in the market. She ran well on her debut. Its very hard to know what to expect from her. She hasnt raced in 45 days and you would have to consider why that was the case. She may well have had a setback on training problems. No horse has won here with an absence off the track as long as she has had. She may be decent, but her debut run wasnt anything special, she only met fillies , and the percentage call has to be looking elsewhere especially as she is a once raced filly. She may be the danger to KEEL . One statistic that we also know about this race is that horses that had managed a 2nd or 3rd place before (Only Keel (2nd) and Flower Market (3rd) manage this from the fancied runners in this race) have a strong record . Only 28 lined up having been 2nd or 3rd last time out but 10 of those won and the last 5 winners of this race also managed it. Thats a big positive for Flower Market but also for KEEL the selection.

I think RUBENSTAR 25/1 Isnt a bad saver. This is because a) He is a Male horse b) He has had 2 starts c) He is well entered up d) He has been nibbled at 33/1 into 25/1 this morning e) this is a small field f) He is quite well bred . I also liked him on video. He ran at Pontefract and finished behind CHERISH but at the 5f marker he was ahead of her and may not have got home. He races prominantly which should help and his trainer likens him to "St Petersberg" and that horse won on his 3rd career start and after being unplaced on his first 2 starts as RUBENSTAR is. I Like his chance at the odds.

I have to side with KEEL as the selection mostly because he has anedge over Flower Market as he is a colt and has ran twice. KEEL Debuted at Folkestone in August and was backed from 25/1-14/1 in a 7f Maiden. He needed that race as you may expect from a stable that doesnt have many debut winners. He was also badly drawn at Folkestone (Drawn 1 of 13 when the first 5 home were drawn 9-4-11-12-13). KEEL then went to Goodwood where again nibbled in the market from 5/1-9/2. I liked him on Video. There was cut in the ground , (something he may get today) and he finished 2nd to Rochdale . The winner is a Sheikh Mohammed horse, and I liked the way he pulled clear of the 3rd horse. KEEL ran up the middle of the track which wouldnt have suited him and he showed a lot of pace. The one doubt about Keel is that he comes from an unproven sire. He is out of first season Sire Carrowkeel who has started with all 28 of his runners beaten. That is a slight concern but we have to put that in perspective. 17 of these were 20-1 or bigger and not fancied, and KEEL's performances must surely be more relevant and he has done little wrong. His Sire Carrowkeel won as a juvenile over 5f and 6f and loved soft ground so I cant see any reason why we should allow that to put us off KEEL today. Jamie Osborne is in good form with his 2 year olds and I feel 3/1 or better isnt a bad price when he has so much in his favour.

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