*************
*************

Account Bets

No Bet

Best Bet Of The Day


Leicester 7.50 - ABERDEEN PARK 5/1

Spent a lot of time on this race. It may be a race thats just a bit too hard to be confident about but I think this horse is the one. I wont advise a Saver as I think any of a number could be the danger. I thought the biggest danger was Halla San the Non Runner. I Wouldnt say Aberdeen
Park is certain to run her race but I think she will, I think she is crying out for this distance and I have my eye on her twice recently and have been waiting to bet her. Shes my Best Bet Today.


*************
*************


Talking Points



* Free Proofing Trial - Day 3

The New Source we are trialling has given me 1 bet today to start his proofing period off.

Newton Abbot 2.05 - Native Chancer



*************
*************


Todays Racing

Before I have a detailed look at the Leicester 7.50 (Race of the Day) a few very brief thoughts.

Punting at Goodwood will be a lottery as a further 15mm of rain has Fallen overnight. In the 2.15 I like HISTORIC PLACE 7/1 and have had a small bet on him. He flies through my stats, I liked him on Video last time and he has a soft ground staying profile and the look of a horse laid out for the race. No more than a sporting bet but he could easily win this race. In the SUSSEX STAKES I see Pricewise have gone for Sleeping Indian 7/1. Thats not a bad shout. Its not a race I felt I wanted to sort out but I know Noseda has often worried about Proclamation's ability to handle the track. At Sandown this evening I like ENFORD PRINCESS a bit. My reasons were explained in last nights E Mail although I am not planning to bet him at his current price of 5/2 as I feel thats too short. I would have bet him at 4/1 though .


*************
*************

Race Of The Day

Leicester 7.50 - Next Handicap (Class 5) (3yo,0-70) 1m½f (1m60y)

3/1 Wujood, 6/1 Aberdeen Park, 10/1 Barbirolli, 12/1 Melvino, 14/1 Insignia, Legal Lover, New England, Shaheer, Sir Bluebird, Hidden Star, Weet Yer Tern, 20/1 Inchcape Rock, 25/1 Bridge T´The Stars


Fascinating Handicap to get our collective teeth into and some Strong Statistics. The First Angle for me is Experience. Horses that had less than 5 career starts are just 1 from 50 in this race . This included 12 horses that were less than 10/1 and 4 beaten favourites. They may well have failed for lack of experience. The only horse to have done it was Bonella in 2001 but that year 8 of the 11 runners had less than 5 career starts so the race was very biased to lightly raced horses and wasnt a true renewal. The Following Horses all have profiles suggesting they are too inexperienced.

LEGAL LOVER 14/1 - 3 Career Starts
NEW ENGLAND 14/1 - 3 Career Starts

I Dont fancy LEGAL LOVER at all. He has never ran in a Handicap before and comes from sprint trips and fast ground to a Mile on soft ground. He has a very weak profile. Similar story with NEW ENGLAND. He has never ran in a Handicap, never started less than 50/1 in 3 maiden races , and has a suspicious look of a fast ground profile in my opinion.

I dont fancy WEET YER TERN 16/1. He has no soft ground form, and both his parents revelled in fast ground. I also think he has a Fitness question mark with a 48 day absence and just 2 runs this season. Having ran less than 3 times this year fails the Fitness statistic and this race isnt reknowned for winners coming on the back of a Long absence. Its not as if he was handicapped quietly having appeared to run on merit in his maidens. I dont fancy INCHCAPE ROCK 20/1 either. Just 1 promising run in a maiden last year but he has done nothing this year to suggest he can win this handicap and his trainer has only
had 2 3 year old handicappers winning in his entire career. BRIDGE T´THE STARS 25/1 is a very unlikely winner. She won on her racecourse debut as a 2 year old and thats made her badly handicapped. She has shown nothing in 3 races this year, and a Filly with a 64 day absence seems a very tall order. I really dont fancy INSIGNIA 14/1. He had 3 runs in a Maiden for John Gosden last year but downgraded stables to Mark Brisborne over the winter. Thats a bad sign. If Gosden felt he could have done something with him he would have kept him especially as he was a 250,000 gns yearling . Hes ran ok for Brisborne in a couple of races this year but starting 50/1 in a 0-70 last time speaks volumes, and this horse has never been near soft ground before and I think his Sire Royal Applause has a far better record on fast ground. SHAHEER 14/1 isnt a horse I could bet. I really dont like his Sire (Shahrastani) . This sire has had an appaling record in the last 7 years . I am not that clued up on my breeding to the point of knowing if and why Stallions regress with their offspring through time but the offspring of this sire has a weak record and I dont like them at all. I also think the Sire has a better record on Fast ground with his offspring and SHAHEER is unproven on softer ground. SHAHEER was running in Nurserys last year after getting handicapped rated in the low 70's and
tried to win his maiden on sand in the winter but failed. This season he has ran in a few handicaps but no piece of form that makes him fanciable here. I watched him on tape at Chester last time and hated him. He was being whipped and pushed early as if he had a poor attitude. He looks ungenuine to me and I wonder if his Sire has passed on a bad temprement to his offspring. I cant fancy him .


BARBIROLLI 10/1 ran once for John Gosden as a 2 year old and like INSIGNIA he downgraded stables to Mark Brisbourne over the winter. I see that as a Negative sign. Brisbourne got him handicapped and he was rated 65. To be fair to him he has ran well in his last 2 starts and I feel that form gives him a chance. He hasnt got enough to like about him to think about him as a "selection" but I rated him 2 lengths better than his last run as he was hampered, and
this isnt much better a race. I wouldnt say I liked him, its just that I dont hate him. The Form book, and many opinions state he flopped at Hamilton recently as he hated the soft ground. I am not sure I believe that is factual , but it would be a concern he has to overcome. Dont think he will win but he should be competetive without winning.

MELVINO 12/1 is a hard horse to read. His trainer is even harder (TD Barron) . MELVINO Has ability but he had to be dropped into Selling class to win his only race in a small field on the sand back in March and he has lost all 8 handicaps he has contested. His ability to handle soft ground is unknown but I strongly think that he is crying out for it. His sire is a Mudlark, and that may well improve him and he has dropped 3lbs since his last race and is coming down the Handicap. I do think he has temprement issues though and is a little ungenuine. He could improve on the ground and get competetive, and his trainer is a master of the unknown, but a 56 day absence wont help him, and I dont get the feeling he is that progressive. Small chance but no more.


HIDDEN STAR 16/1 has a mixed profile. I am not keen on his trainer Frank Jordan. His strike rate on the flat is less than 4% and his record in 3 year old handicaps is only 1-76. Frank Jordan is 0-33 with his flat runners in 2005 and his sole 2 winners over jumps were back in April. His record at Leicester is 0-30 , his record with 3 year olds just 2-122 . That aside HIDDEN STAR does have ability. He showed enough as a juvenile to confirm ability and his 2nd
race this year at Nottingham on his handicap debut wasnt bad (3rd in a 0-70). He has ran a couple of races that would give him a squeak , but he wouldnt win on his last run, I didnt get the "will win soon" feeling from the video and although he could conceivably pop up his trainers profile suggests hes best left alone.

SIR BLUEBIRD 8/1 was brought along slowly. Showed his first piece of form at Newmarket in May when 3rd in a 0-70. That form gives him an excellent chance here. He was then gambled at Chepstow (7/1-4/1) but flopped badly. He ran a lot better at Newbury last time , but that was 6 weeks ago and it remains to be seen what sort of form he is in today. He steps up in trip, that may suit but he needs to run a career best to win and the percentages say no.


WUJOOD 7/2 is a Big player here. Trained by John Dunlop as a juvenile. Trained by Hughie Morrison as a 3 year old. Personally I dont see that as a downgrade in stables as Morrison is a serioulsy good trainer and Dunlop is on the decline. WUJOOD ran in 4 maidens as a juvenile of which his best run was at Bath on his 4th start when 2nd. WUJOOD started this year handicapped on 74. After an acceptable debut at Haydock he was sent up to 14f at Nottingham in a 0-70 and probably failed to stay that day. Morrison brought him back to 12f at Leicester in 0-75 but he didnt cut much ice and at that stage we werent really too sure of just what he was capable of and under what conditions. He dropped to 8f on his last start and ran a creditale 2nd in a 0-70 Handicap at Windsor. That Windsor race is a Joke piece of form. There was heavy rain , jockeys hadnt a clue which side of the track to race on, none of the form has worked out and WUJOOD clearly had the best part of the track to race on. That said, the winner (Cusoon) was heavily gambled and he could have met a decent horse that day and take out the winner and WUJOOD would have Slammed the rest of them 5 lengths. He is a very hard horse to assess. He will like the ground, but how good he actually is isnt certain. He can clearly win off 70, of that I have no doubt. His biggest question mark may be the trip as he is packed with Stamina on the Dams side. The Dam won over 12f and whilst he could, and possibly should be competetive over 8f todays trip, he may well be better over further.

The Selection

ABERDEEN PARK 7/1 is a huge player here and a Horse I have had my eye on for some time. I first noticed her at Chester 2 races ago finishing on the bridle over a 7f trip that was clearly too sharp for her . I think She is very well handicapped and the key to her may well be this step up in trip. I first mentioned the horse last time out at Epsom over 7f in a 0-75 where I said :

" ABERDEEN PARK 5/1 is very interesting and well handicapped. I think she will cetainly win soon. I just dont think it will be at this trip though. She really
caught my eye last time but she needed further, her breeding suggests she will stay a lot further , and the race she ran in at Chester last time is almost 11 seconds longer to run than this race and I think she will struggle with the trip and I think she will stay on very late , but too late looking like a Miler or even a 10f horse. " .

Her last run at Epsom confirmed this for me. She didnt handle the downhill turn at Epsom and looked crying out for a longer trip yet still ran well on the heels of the leader. She has never ran beyond an extended 7f to date yet and she is crying out for a step up to 8f + . I Felt Chester 2 runs ago was 2 short, yet she dropped in trip last time out. She now takes a step up in trip and this mileage today is a further 16 seconds of racing and thats the key to her.

ABERDEEN PARK was raced 10 times as a juvenile and has now had 14 career starts. Statistically she is overexposed for this race as horses that had more than 12 career starts have a poor 1-45 record. I am prepared to forgive her that as she is "Only just " over the best number of career starts with 14 runs and the race has been won by a horse having 13 starts recently and horses with 12 starts have also won this race. She showed that soft ground wont be
that much of an issue when 3rd in a big field 0-85 at Newbury last October, form which would put her with a great chance today. This year she hasnt been fit yet but she now looks at her peak running over her career best distance . I am convinced she is about to win .

I Dont know much about her trainer Heidi Sweeting. She trains at Wiltshire between Roger Charlton's and John Gosden's stables. She started training in April 2004 and had her first winner a day later at Brighton and had her 2nd winner just 4 days later. She had a background in PR and Marketing . As far as I am aware they built a training centre and employed trainers to train for them. They employed John Bridger , then Kark Burke , Mark Usher and Heidi Sweeting ran the yard herself for some time as a Satelite yard for Karl Burke. In only her 2nd year training she has trained 20 winners and thats encouraging
especially as she trained a winner last week.

In terms of the fact we are betting a Maiden Filly in a Handicap, I am not bothered by that. She is the only Filly in the race (except for the outside Bridge T The Stars) , yet we know that from the 19 past renewals , 9 winners were maidens, and Fillies Won this race 6 times, and Won 4 of the last 5 renewals in 2000 , 2001 , 2002 and 2004, and the renewal they didnt win (in 2003) the female sex only had 1 horse under 25/1 and she was 2nd. We have had 2
maiden fillies winning in the last 5 years as well suggesting Fillies are now favoured and ABERDEEN PARK is well treated as a filly. I think she wins this on
several of her juvenile runs and I think the step up in trip should bring about enough improvement to win.

**********************
**********************