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No Bet


It was pretty obvious that Today wasnt going to offer anything. Goodwoods one of the hardest tracks
and heavy overnight rain and a dismal forecast for more complicates things. Notingham isnt much easier.
Cant find a strong bet on the day. Ive kept it short today. I seem to have dug out mainly negatives. It was
always likely to be the hardest day of the week. Tomorrow looks better.

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Talking Points

Went for 4 big priced horses yesterday. King Magnus failed to win. Lord Nellsson was beaten in a photo at 16/1 which was a little frustrating. Mark Of Brilliance each way framed before the 16/1 chance Whistbury Common failed . Overall worth a stab and I dont think it was a bad message.

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Today's Racing


Horrible Meetings really. Complicated stats. A Brief look at a few points. At Nottingham the meeting opens with a Fillies Maiden.


Nottingham 1.35 -11/4 First Approval, 5/1 Alwariah, 11/2 Sant Elena, 6/1 Lucky Lisa, Queen´s Pudding, 16/1 San Gimignano, Sanctity, 25/1 Astronova, Enrichetta, Lady Synthia, Muckle, 33/1 Athena´s Dream, Buckle And Hyde, Dancing Guest, Pearly Poll, Worldly Pursuit, 100/1 Stroppy


Virtually nothing to go on. Geoff Wragg runs an unraced horse called SANT ELENA 13/2. The only point of mentioning this is that Geoff Wragg produced the unraced winner of this in 2004 and 1999 and the Dam of the horse has already produced a Grade 1 winner in the States from just 2 foals. Its not a Tip. I personally think Wragg is in terminal decline as a trainer and his 1-46 record with unraced 2 year olds in the last 5 years speaks a stronger language. The other big runner is James Fanshaws QUEENS PUDDING an unraced daughter of Royal Applause. The Dam has already produced a Group class horse from just 2 foals. I think both these horses are interesting. Obvioulsy FIRST APPROVAL sets the benchmark having ran twice before. What I find interesting about the favourite FIRST APPROVAL is that her Dam (Gaijin) has now produced 7 horses and None of them were rated better than 70. Thats not a good sign in my opinion. I am not saying she wont win, but I do like to see some quality in the immediate family and on breeding I think shes hardly compelling and Barry Hills has a 0-5 record in this race. I would personally go for something a little better bred than the favourite and look to latch onto something fancied with better genes.

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The 2.10 race is too hard. Hasnt been run before. Nottingham is then dominated by difficult races. I will post a few stats for these races at the end of the message and leave it up to you whether you want to utilise the stats and have a bet .


Nottingham 2.45 -4/1 Bulwark, 5/1 Velvet Heights, 11/2 Numero Due, Tangible, Tilt, 7/1 Mt Desert, 8/1 Maggie Tulliver, 14/1 Aylmer Road, 25/1 Speightstown, Wotchalike, 33/1 Karrnak

In the 2.45 Staying Handicap for 3 year olds you have 7 of the 11 runners with a chance and very few visible methods of counting out some of the 7 main runners. I wouldnt want the favourite BULWARK. He has to concede weight to the whole field against some powerful stables (which includes runners from Prescott , Gosden, Dunlop and Fanshaw) . BULWARK is a horse that has to have a combination of headgear, he is a horse that carries his head high and often saves a bit for himself. Of course he has decent form and rated 6lbs better than anything else in the race only a fool can say he cant win. I just feel his attitide is enough to cause doubts in a race packed full of strong stables. I Like several here. My problem is not finding horses I like its finding horses I dont like as I can see few negatives amongst the "big 7 runners". We had an account bet on NUMERO DUE when he won at Thirsk and he is still well handicapped for me and now he has proven he stays 2 miles I can see him running very well. He isnt a horse I would want to bet though for 3 reasons. a) There are no obvious negatives against his main rivals b) he has a 32 days absence and c) He has lost the main advantage he had last time (weight for age) . Mark Prescotts pair TANGIBLE and TILT met in a Nottingham staying race and on that run there isnt much between them. TANGIABLE looks the stable number 1 but its too close to call. You cant ignore VELVER HEIGHTS as John Dunlop has a magnificent record in 3 year old handicaps at 2 miles or more. 1 in 3 of his runners win. My frustration here lies in the fact there is a favourite I am happy to take on (Bulwark) but it seems to me that any of his 6 main rivals could take it and I cant find a strong enough negative to reduce the field.

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Nottingham 3.20 - 9/4 Best Lady, 5/1 Shamsalmaidan, 8/1 Alessandria, Clear Vision, Spring Dream, 9/1 Basque, 10/1 Elise, Princess Nada, 12/1 Lolla´s Spirit, 33/1 Tuscany Rose, 50/1 Florida Legend, Shellatana,

Assuming things is all we can do here. I am going to Assume that ALESSANDRIA 8/1 Wont win as Ed Dunlop has a dreadful record with 2 year old debutants.
He is just 1-30 this year and his 5 year strike rate is just 2% so this Filly is out. I am going to Assume that ELISE 10/1 is going to get a Handicap mark today on her 3rd start after finishing 6th and 9th on her first 2 races. I am going to Assume that SPRING DREAM isnt going to be good enough after her debut run. Its fair to say it was in a conditions race but the fact she was beaten out of sight and is owned by Henry Ponsonby, and out of a Dam whose produced nothing of quality yet. I am going to Assume that CLEAR VISION 8/1 and LOLLA's SPIRIT 16/1 Will need the run from stables that hardly excel with unraced 2 year olds. This Leaves 4 main runners

Best Lady 11/4
Shamsalmaidan 5/1
Basque 6/1
Princess Nada 10/1

One stat thats always interested me is the stat that BASQUE Fails. Its in 8f maidens for 2 year old fillies and it involves horses that step up in trip from 6f or
shorter to 8f . They have an awful record. Its not just in this race (All 29 were beaten) but on every track. Since 1992 there have been 90 horses try and bridge the gap between 6f and 8f and only 1 has suceeded back in 1990 at Leicester. That 1-90 record puts me off BASQUE Today. In the interests of fairness I should point out that only about 16 of the 90 that tried could be described as being "Fancied" but it is a statistic that worries me. It isnt that these horses dont stay.

Its more to do with being acclimatised at the trip and learning how to race at a mile having come from a sprint trip. Its not just the Fillies. Colts do have a better record but still a poor record. Only 1 Colt that tries to win going up from 6f to a Mile in every 25 that try. Fillies have an even worse record and rightly or wrongly thats why I am assuming BASQUE wont win today. I think we can narrow it down further.PRINCESS NADA is statistically strong but flopped on her debut when described as " badly in need of the run" . I have to assume that despite her stables strong record in the race that she may need another race after that first race and a 32 day absence. I am assuming that being beaten 26 lengths last time is asking too much of her today. This Leaves

Best Lady 11/4
Shamsalmaidan 5/1

Its fair to say SHAMSALMAIDAN 5/1 doesnt look anything out of the ordinary but at least she has ran twice , is being supported in the market and interestingly also comes from the Beverley Maiden 13 days ago that the winners of this race in 2004 and 2003 both came from. BEST LADY comes from a Hot Goodwood maiden that has provided 5 subsequent winners. Every chance but a 61 days absence raises an eyebrow.


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Goodwood has had 8mm of rain overnight. There is more Rain forecast later today. Thats complicated things a great deal especially as the meeting hasnt really any usefull trends or statistics. One Horse that interested me was MORSE in the 3.05 race.


Goodwood 3.05 - 9/2 Border Music, 8/1 High Bray, Magic Merlin, Outer Hebrides, 9/1 Katiypour, Morse, 10/1 Ela Paparouna, Keyaki, 11/1 Dancing Rose, Phluke, 12/1 Binanti, 14/1 Digital, Master Robbie, 20/1 Violet Park, Who´s Winning, 22/1 Aastral Magic, 33/1 Border Edge,

MORSE is a horse I noted at Haydock last time. In 2004 the horse ran in the same Haydock race over a Mile. He ran badly just as He did this year at Haydock. In 2004 he then dropped in trip next time at Warwick and Won a Claimer. He trys to do the same this year in dropping in trip back to 7f. I think the drop in trip and Rain is in his favour. I dont think he stays a mile. Hes tried it 4 times without success. Last time he had a bad draw, he had to be held up to get the trip. I dont think he can be expected to have won last time out. Now he gets the right trip. He gets Frankie Dettori and the Handicapper has dropped him 2lbs to a Mark He has never been given before, Its a Career low mark. He is also a course winner which always helps and His stable had a winner yesterday. At 9/1 hes value.

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I thought the Supreme Stakes (3.40) was fascinating but the rain has complicated things. NAYYIR is a hard horse to catch right. So much talent but 11 straight defeats and a horse thats impossible to understand. He appears to be racing under ideal circumstances today. This is his best track. I think his record implies that he is best when Fresh like today. I would have to give him the vote over NEW SEEKER especially now the rains come down. SERRE CHEVALIER is probably the fastest improving horse in training. I think the rain wont harm his chance. The issue is whether he can bridge the Gap from Handicap company to
Group 3 class. On the face of it , the betting hints that he is excellent each way value at 11/2 when there are 4 rank outsiders in a 9 runner race. He has won 4 handicaps and has gone up 21lbs in the weights. Today its his first Group race. I normally like horses that are trying to do something thats easily achievable and not trying to do something that hasnt been done before. In this race all 8 horses that came up from a Handicap lost. Royal Millenium failed to do it as did Omaha City recently. The stat is too weak to believe that it cant be done but as I said I would rather have proof it has been done before. We havent got that proof with SERRE CHEVALIER and there is a Group 2 winners in this field (Nayyir) , a horse beaten in a photo in a Group 2 race (Arakan) and several group 3 winners. Its not easy to draw firm conclusions but on Class if I was betting I would be only concentrating on Nayyir and Serre Chevalier.

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Nottingham Statistics


Nottingham 2.45 - 8 renewals and 71 runners
Nottingham 2.45 - Less than 5 starts (0-9) and more than 12 (0-8) havent won
Nottingham 2.45 - Horses that ran 31 + days ago are 0-16
Nottingham 2.45 - Fillies (5-18) score well over colts (3-53)
Nottingham 2.45 - Horses beaten 4 + lengths last time are 1-50

Nottingham 3.20 - 18 renewals and 210 runners (Division 1)
Nottingham 3.20 - Horses that ran once before dominate (11-67) unraced (4-71) and twice raced horses (3-58)
Nottingham 3.20 - 3 or more starts are 0-14
Nottingham 3.20 - 17 of the 18 races went to the first 4 in the market
Nottingham 3.20 - Horses that came from a Conditions race are 3-6
Nottingham 3.20 - Horses stepping up from 6f or less are 0-29
Nottingham 3.20 - Godolphin are 2-3 as Newmarket stables totally dominated (17-96)

Nottingham 3.55 - 18 renewals and 210 runners (Division 2)
Nottingham 3.55 - Horses that ran once before dominate (11-67) unraced (4-71) and twice raced horses (3-58)
Nottingham 3.55 - 3 or more starts are 0-14
Nottingham 3.55 - 17 of the 18 races went to the first 4 in the market
Nottingham 3.55 - Horses that came from a Conditions race are 3-6
Nottingham 3.55 - Horses stepping up from 6f or less are 0-29
Nottingham 3.55 - Godolphin are 2-3 as Newmarket stables totally dominated (17-96)

Nottingham 4.30 - 11 renewals and 187 runners
Nottingham 4.30 - Horses that raced in Class 2 or higher before are 0-11
Nottingham 4.30 - Claiming jockeys are 1-37
Nottingham 4.30 - Last time out winners are 0-14 and horses that had won in their last 6 runs were just 1-26
Nottingham 4.30 - 10 of the 11 winers were maidens (others 1-26)

Nottingham 5.40 - 10 renewals and 168 runners
Nottingham 5.40 - 21 or more career races is just 1-44
Nottingham 5.40 - 4 and 5 year olds are best. 3 year olds (2-42) and 6yrs or more (0-23) underperform
Nottingham 5.40 - Horses that ran in Class A or higher are 0-11
Nottingham 5.40 - Fillies are 0-38
Nottingham 5.40 - Horses that were 1st (0-6) 2nd (0-11) or 3rd (0-14) last time out havent won yet
Nottingham 5.40 - Horses from a 3yo handicap are 0-11
Nottingham 5.40 - Northern runners are 1-37
Nottingham 5.40 - 8st 13lbs or less are 1-35


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