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Account Bet

No Bet


Best Bet of the Day

I like Boumsong (2.05) in the first race at Catterick . I was expecting 6/1
but money has already come and he is 9/2 . The only other horse I considered
was Melrose Place (3.15) . Perhaps splitting your stake on these two horses
would be the best option.


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Talking Points


* Account Period Starts Saturday
I am starting the account bets from Saturday . There will be a couple of changes.


a) The New Pin Number for the 0871 line will be 14321 then the Hash Key. This will work from Saturday Morning.

b) The New Message time will be 1.45 pm . I want to get every ounce of time for looking at the weather , the market, the
video's and the non runners. I am going to ignore the very early races and concentrate on the later races. It is a late
message time but I wont be advising bets before 2.30pm so there wont be a time issue for bets. Much of the business
should be at Night or later in the afternoon. I will be prompt and reliable with the updates.

c) I will post all the days statistics on the message board each morning for anyone that wants an early look


* Thursday / Friday

This wont be Busy. I have nothing on Friday as I have a prior arrangement . There is only a Mixed Card with just
4 Flat races on the day at Sandown so it wouldnt have been worth a message anyway. Tomorrow wont be busy either.
Bath and Beverley stage the Flat action but Bath has no past renewals , and Beverley only has 4 races. I dont see
much likelyhood of anything too positive and I may not do a message now before Saturday. I will post any racing
thoughts on the message board. Saturday we will start to have regular bets .


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Today's Racing


Catterick 2.05 - 7/4 Jack It, 11/4 Baytown Lulu, 4/1 Compton Lad, 6/1 Boumsong, 14/1 Lucys Lady, Sweetly Sharp, 33/1 Garstang

Mixed feelings here as initially I really wanted a Filly yet fancied a Colt more after watching a few video's. I dont like the favourite JACK
IT . I didnt like her on video, looking at her action I would be very concerned if the ground was soft. The ground may not be that soft, and it
could dry out but it is still possibly against her. Her sire was definately a fast ground horse. I think she is beatable. You really do seem to
want a Filly here based on past results. Fillies lead Colts 5-2 but they have won the last 5 renewals and would have won the last 6 had it not
been for a 4/9 favourite. That said take all 57 previous juvenile sellers at every track and there is no advantage so I wouldnt say a Colt
could not win. I have made Compton Lad a negative statistically because of his trainers poor first time out strike rate , and the fact he is a
colt but I concede that the sex issue may not be that clear. He is also a very cheap £800 purchase which must be a big negative . Alan
Berry's SWEETLY SHARP was also very cheap . BAYTOWN LULU has a great profile for me as a horse thats had 3 starts. She has to be
as fit as anything in this race but she is not overbig and I wonder if she has any scope . I Cant have Garstang on video evidence. I came
away from the race thinking the 6/1 about BOUMSONG was the value here and he is the suggestion .

Having watched them all on tape I have revised my temptation to side with a Filly. BOUMSONG has had 2 races. That is the best number
of runs to have in my opinion. Horses that had ran twice in juvenile sellers over the years have an excellent 16-83 strike rate (19%) and
have a Level Stakes profit of almost £10 . I Liked BOUMSONG Quite a bit at the price. BOUMSONG was unlucky last time. After a
debut run down the field in the Brocklesby he was backed from 20/1 to 10/1 at Musselburgh but was badly hampered twice at the start , and
ran into the back of another horse losing all momentum. That killed his chance and he came home in his own time, and he hardly had a race .
I think having had 2 races , and this drop in class could make a difference to him and at 6//1 he might find enough improvement to win.
Vicky Haigh showed with Ooh Aah Camera that she could train 2 year old winners and this horse is in the same ownership, and the owner
seems to have spent quite a bit of money . The owner (Willie McKay) is a powerfull owner and a big punter with plenty of money from being
a football agent and he could well have had a big gamble last time that went wrong. At 6/1 in an easier race he may be tempted to get his
losses back. I think its open but BOUMSONG at 5/1 could be the one.

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Catterick 3.15 - Betting Forecast: 4/6 Takhmin, 6/4 Melrose Avenue, 33/1 General Max, 50/1 Jeffslottery,

Obvioulsy its a match between the 2 Mark Johnston horses. Johnston has farmed this race in recent years winning the last 3 renewals and
his runners appear tightly matched and getting the right one wont be obvious. He will want to keep both his powerful owners happy but if
you take this race over the years it has tended to go to an unraced horses coming from last season. In 2003 Shanty Star won beating a
11/10 favourite that had just hacked up in a maiden that season (Just as Takhmin had). It was the same in 2002 as In Disguise hacked up in
a maiden and came here as a 4/6 favourite was was beaten by another unraced horse (Fashionable Man) at 6/4. The last time this race was
won by a horse that had ran this year was 1999 but that doesnt count as all 4 runners had ran that year. It was a similar story back in 1998
when Mithak came here at odds on having won a maiden the week before yet was beaten easily by another seasonal debutant. I dont know
which of these runners are better than the other, and I suspect most others dont either but If you want to look at the History of this race and
how its gone over the years then you have to say that MELROSE AVENUE has to be the bet to beat the favourite. The common mistake
in past years and possibly in this is to assume that having a recent run gives a fitness advantage , but in reality that may not be true. After
all TAKHMIN took 4 runs to win his maiden and came via a Handicap-Maiden route, yet MELROSE AVENUE was a maiden winner on
his second start and started 9/2 for the Group 2 Irish Futurity last year despite dissapointing. Given that you only have to beat 1 horse to
win in reality when picking one of the big 2 runners I would have to say that MELROSE AVENUE is easily the best pick statistically.

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Catterick 4.20 - 4/5 Tartatartufata, 3/1 Penang Sapphire, 8/1 Our Little Secret, 10/1 Little Biscuit, 25/1 Ducal Diva, Ellis Cave,

I think on paper you would have to say PENANG SAPPHIRE has a strong chance but I dont like the horse. Its hard to know what to make
of him, his form suggests he may be better at 5f but his breeding conflicts with that. He would hack up in this if reproducing his Nottingham
Nuirsery run last November over 5f but he looks to be a complicated sort and I dont blame the 6f trip last time for his defeat. He was well
beaten at the 5f pole last time and I just think he is not a horse to be confident about . OUR LITTLE SECRET is statistically very
vulnerable. On the betting he has a similar chance to LITTLE BISCUIT . Having watched them both I have to say that despite a weaker
profile I much prefered OUR LITTLE SECRET from the pair. Overall though despite the fact she is a filly giving weight to the field I have
to prefer TARTATARTUFATA with just a 4 day absence. Her 10/11 quote makes no appeal to me but I think she is more able to be trusted
than some of these and she is the selection. Wouldnt dream of betting her at that price though.

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Statistical Negatives

Catterick 2.05 - Compton Lad 4/1 - Stable has very poor strike rate with unraced juveniles (1-72) and this ia a male horse in a race that has
been dominated in recent years by female horses. You would also be put off by his very cheap purchase price not taken at the Sales.

Catterock 2.40 - High Minded 8/1 - you can pull out several that come out weak statistically in this but High Minded is the worst of the
shorter priced horses. Just 3 runs is not the right preperatyion for this handicap debut , and he should not be fit enough to concede weight to
the whole field.

Catterick 3.50 - I "would " have added Stage School (5/4) to the list of statistical negatives as she is a filly (they have a 0-32 record in this
race) and she is a seasonal debutant . Her Main rival is Sound The Alarm 4/1 who has had a run. There is a modest advantage to
experienced horses in this race , but it is not compelling , and the Female 0-32 stat is not overwhelming either as only 8 started less than 8/1
in this race. Given the choice I would take the experienced Sound The Alarm at 4/1 but He is a "groom dancer" and I would be very worried
about him on very soft ground. Had this been fast ground then I would have been more confidence. Overall just preference for Sound The
Alarm rather than a strong negative for Stage School , but if the ground looks bad I would have my doubts about Sound The Alarm. I also
think that with there being 3 horses that are hard to rate, and prominant in the betting (Peters Delite , Mac Cois Na Time and Malcheck)
there could be a bit more strength in the race than would be ideal so I have to pass the race up as having too many unknown variables.

Epsom 3.40 - Counsel's Opinion 4/1- were he to win the City and Suburban he would be the most exposed horse ever to win. Horses that ran
over 21 times before were 0-35 and this included 4 beaten favourites. He would also be the oldest in recent times . No 8 year old has ever
placed in this race , and in recent years the record of 7 year olds is poor as well with just 1 runner up , and he was a beaten 2/1 favourite .
You can also say that Counsels Opinion hasnt had the best preperation either . Having run above handicap class before is not the sign of a
City and Suburban winner. Just for the record the runner that I thought came out best was TIGER TIGER at 16/1 .

Catterick 5.20 - Not so much a statistical negative here , and not a race I can get close to as there are no past renewals but I would have to
make DUNN DEAL a negative here at 11/2 second favourite. The main reason is the extended trip. This is 5f 212 yards and that should
prove too much for him. His trainer is on record as saying "We tried Dunn Deal over six furlongs, but he doesn't get a yard over five" and
his record supports that . On rain softened ground just a few yards short of 6 furlongs I expect him to be swallowed up late.

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Todays Stats


CATTERICK - This meeting has skipped several years. There were no renewals in 2004, 2001 and 2000. There were
7 meetings going back to 1994 and the stats are based on those with a word of caution as only 3 of the last 7 years have
been run because of bad weather.

Catterick 2.05 - 7 renewals and 65 runners (2yo Seller)
Catterick 2.05 - Horses that were 1st/2nd last time out score well ( 3 from 5 winning)
Catterick 2.05 - M W Easterby is 2-4
Catterick 2.05 - Fillies and colts have the same strike rate but Fillies won the last 5 renewals

Catterick 2.40 - 6 renewals and 101 runners (3yo handicap)
Catterick 2.40 - Horses that have ran in Class D but no higher before (5-60) beat those that had ran in Class C or higher (1-31)
Catterick 2.40 - Horsesthat ran within 15 days underperform (1-22)
Catterick 2.40 - 5 of the 6 winners were 5th or worse last time out (others just 1-34)
Catterick 2.40 - Horses coming from Class D last time out are best (4-29)
Catterick 2.40 - Horses that came from 6f or shorter last time out are 0-34
Catterick 2.40 - Horses with just 3 races before are 0-15
Catterick 2.40 - Seasonal debutants (1-33) and once raced this year (1-24) underperform.
Catterick 2.40 - Horses carrying 9st or less are just 1-54 as higher weights have dominated

Catterick 3.15 - 7 renewals and 34 runners (3yo conditions race)
Catterick 3.15 - Horses at 6/1 and over are just 1-16
Catterick 3.15 - Horses that were not 1-2-3 last time out are 0-10
Catterick 3.15 - Horses coming from Class C are strong (4-10)
Catterick 3.15 - Seasonal debutants are strong (4-9) . 2 or more races this season are 0-8
Catterick 3.15 - Mark Johnston is 3-4 and has won the last 3 renewals

Catterick 3.50 - 8 renewals and 86 runners (3yo maiden)
Catterick 3.50 - Unraced horses are 0-11
Catterick 3.50 - 1 race this year (5-40) is slightly better than seasonal debutants (2-37)
Catterick 3.50 - All 32 fillies lost
Catterick 3.50 - Horses coming from the Newmarket Craven meeting are 3-7
Catterick 3.50 - Horses at 3/1 and over are 0-75
Catterick 3.50 - Horses coming from Class B or C are 2-2

Catterick 4.20 - 8 renewals and 103 runners (3yo handicap)
Catterick 4.20 - Colts (6-61) lead fillies (2-42)
Catterick 4.20 - Claiming jockeys are 0-26
Catterick 4.20 - Horses at 8/1 and over are 0-74
Catterick 4.20 - Horses coming from Class F (0-17) and Class G (0-5) are unproven
Catterick 4.20 - Horses coming from maidens (1-18) underperform as you want a horse coming from a handicap (others 1-46)
Catterick 4.20 - 5-12 career races are best . Those with less than 5 (1-27) and over 12 (0-9) are weak
Catterick 4.20 - All 31 seasonal debutants lost
Catterick 4.20 - Maidens are 1-46

Catterick 4.50 - 7 renewals and 80 runners (all aged handicap)
Catterick 4.50 - Horses aged 7 or more are 0-13
Catterick 4.50 - All 16 fillies lost
Catterick 4.50 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 0-20
Catterick 4.50 - Horses dropping from 13f or more are 0-18 and horses that ran at under 11f last time are 0-17
Catterick 4.50 - Seasonal debutants underperform (1-23)

Epsom 2.20 - 6 renewals and 28 runners
Epsom 2.20 - Horses that ran 112 or more days ago are best (5-14)
Epsom 2.20 - All 6 winners had 2-6 career starts (others 0-8)
Epsom 2.20 - Newmarket stables were best (4-10)

Epsom 3.05 - 8 renewals and 118 runners (Great Metropolitan)
Epsom 3.05 - Fillies (2-13) score well but jockeys that claim do not (0-21)
Epsom 3.05 - Horses at 16/1 and over underperform (1-47)
Epsom 3.05 - All 8 winners ran in Class C or D last time (others 0-38)
Epsom 3.05 - Less than 7 career starts are 0-15
Epsom 3.05 - Horses that carried 8st 8lbs or less are just 1-41

Epsom 3.40 - 8 renewals and 118 runners (City And Suburban Stakes)
Epsom 3.40 - 21 or more career starts are 0-35 as every winner ran 7-20 times before
Epsom 3.40 - 1-3 starts this season (5-55) just beat seasonal debutants (3-48)
Epsom 3.40 - 4 year olds are best , horses aged 7 or more are 0-14
Epsom 3.40 - Horses that had worn blinkers before are 0-28
Epsom 3.40 - All 23 horses that had previously ran in listed class or higher before lost
Epsom 3.40 - Horses that had ran in Class B but no higher before dominate (7-68)
Epsom 3.40 - All 9 female horses lost
Epsom 3.40 - Horses coming from a non handicap last time are just 1-30
Epsom 3.40 - Horses with 2-3 career wins are best (others 0-18)
Epsom 3.40 - Newmarket raiders have struggled (1-30)

Epsom 4.10 - 8 renewals and 80 runners (Maiden stakes)
Epsom 4.10 - Unraced horses are 0-8 as 5-6 starts are best (3-7)
Epsom 4.10 - Horses coming from the sand are 0-15
Epsom 4.10 - Horses aged 4 or more are 0-23
Epsom 4.10 - Horses at 6/1 and over are 0-52
Epsom 4.10 - Horses that were not in the first 6 last time are just 1-37

Epsom 4.40 - 8 renewals and 97 runners (Classified stakes)
Epsom 4.40 - Horses with 21 or more career starts struggle (1-36)
Epsom 4.40 - Seasonal debutants underperform (1-23)
Epsom 4.40 - Horses aged 7 or more are 0-11
Epsom 4.40 - Fillies (4-33) score well
Epsom 4.40 - Horses at 10/1 and over are just 1-58
Epsom 4.40 - Horses coming from Class E/F are best (others 1-44)
Epsom 4.40 - Horses coming from 10f or above are 0-16
Epsom 4.40 - Horses that ran in a 14 or more runner race last time are just 1-42