Account Bet

No Bet



Best Bet of the Day

I would nominate either Bluebok (Bath 9.15) or Alpaga Le Jomage (Carlisle 4.50). My only doubt about Bluebok is firm ground and thats what stops him being an account bet.Alpaga Le Jomages biggest problem as as bet is 7 runners.


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* Talking Points- Announcements

New SMS Service

I Am Starting a SMS Service for late bets that come to light after the message has gone out. I am informing you of this as a courtesy. This will be costed in a variety of ways. I Dont intend to charge Current members for this service. I will be posting all the late bets on the message board free of charge anyway. I will also be prepared to text current members the bets as well at no charge as long as they cover costs of sending the texts. In other words they wont be charged at a premium rate charge, or charges a "Fee" for the texts assuming they want them, but they will be charged "costs" of sending the text. The costs will
probably be about 6 pence a text. It isnt a profit making thing for me,and it may sound petty but I dont want to do a few quid every time I text a bet to people who are not being charged as 20 bets down the line I am well out of pocket ! Therefore should you want to be texted late bets, there will be an admin charge and I expect that to be about 6p per text, the rate I am being charged to text them to you. These Late Bets will not in any way count as account bets or form any part of the account. From your point of view its just an "Extra" that you get from the service for no charge. This is an area I want and need to experiment
with. I Cant give you an exact starting date, or any more details but I will be able to shortly.

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Today's Racing


The Horses I like today are these

Bath 9.15 - Bluebok - 7/2 My only doubt is firm ground and thats what stops him being an account bet.

Carlisle 4.50 - Alpaga Le Jomage 5/1 - I Quite like this horse on the AOR's and the way he has been shaping recently.

Salisbury 2.10 - Walklikeanegyptian 7/2 - Looks a shade overpriced to me.


Back from Hospital after a Minor procedure. Messages as usual this week. but the next couple wont be long essay's . Still a little fragile after the Op and I have to be careful not to overdue things.Dont feel 100% just yet. There are a Lack of Stats today especially at tonights meetings. There are probably only 4 or 5 races today where enough renewals have been run to complile them. Pretty keen to leave most of Epsom alone tonight. I did see a race that caught my eye. The 7.30 race is the "Cyril & Robbie Mitchell Handicap ". Cyril Mitchel was father of Phillip Mitchell who still trains in his fathers yard (I think thats right). Robbie Mitchell was his Mother who dies last year. It seems interesting that Phillip Mitchell is represented by BURGANDY at 12/1 in this 7 runner race.No doubt he would be very keen to win the race in honour of his late parents. Could run well.


Carlisle 4.50 -3/1 Folga, 7/2 Wonderful Mind, 5/1 Alpaga Le Jomage, Why Now, 6/1 One Great Idea, 7/1 Unlimited, 10/1
Wise Wager

I dont like the fact there are 7 runners here and some of the opposition are hard to judge but the 6/1 about the Topweight is overprices. I Think that ALPAGA LE JOMAGE is more than capable of winning in this class of race . He was only beaten a length in a Class B Handicap last time out at a Grade 1 track. His Newmarket run was against horses with AOR's of 84.42. His previous race was against horses with AOR's of 89.22 so this is a real drop in class today. His opponents today offer up a mere 71.83 on the AOR's and that signifies a serious drop in class. The small field,. the recent run within 4 days and the recent drop in his handicap mark suggests to me that 5/1 in a small field like this is too generous.

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Bath 9.15 - 3/1 Bluebok, 7/2 Linda Green, 4/1 Brigadore, 7/1 Blessed Place, Indian Bazaar, 12/1 Aintnecessarilyso, 14/1 Woodbury, 16/1 Miss Judgement, 33/1 Danakim, Royal Cozyfire,

On Saturday Night I really fancied BLUEBOK. If you remember I liked him as he was fit , and on the AOR's (Average Official Ratings) he looked a certainty after running a close 2nd at 33/1 , in a far better race. My reservations were that I wasnt sure if that race was a fluke, or if he was flattered by it. I was also concerned about the 5f trip when he is clearly bred for further. BLUEBOK Ran ok in 4th on Saturday beaten a length. In Hindsight I think the way he ran suggests the trip caught him out. When he posted his excellent run at Salisbury, it was a far stiffer 5f trip than Redcars on Saturday night. The Redcar race on Saturday takes about 3 seconds shorter to run than Salisburys. I Think thats what has caught him out. Now he runs over just
what he wants, an extended 5f trip thats about 11 secs longer than Redcar. This is going to play to his strengths and I think he has to be given the chance to show his Salisbury 2nd is better than anything these could have done. Had his run on Saturday been over this trip I think he would have won it easily and I think he is a very well handicapped horse. My only reservation would be firm ground on a track with no watering system. He is a son of Indian Riodge and his "Good" ground figures are better than his "fast" ground numbers and thats his big danger tonight and why he isnt a bet. I still make him the selection though and I still plan to have a modest bet on him myself.

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Salisbury 2.10 - 4/1 Walklikeanegyptian, 9/2 Savannah Pride, 5/1 Libgatt, 7/1 Indecent Proposal, Secret Night, 8/1 Fisola, Matterofact, 12/1 Dark Moon, 25/1 Flying Penne, 33/1 Maidford, Queens Bounty, Watch Out Jess, 66/1 Safari.

The statistics suggest you want a professionally ridden horse wunder 10/1 thats had a recent run. The record of debutants are far weaker than experienced runners. Unraced horses won only 3 of the 15 renewals (20%) from Over half of the runners. With Savannah Pride 9/2 and Libgatt 5/1 unraced I would see WALKLIKEANEGYPTIAN As having a statistical advantage. On his debut he was introduced into a race Richard Hannon has a fantastic record in. I was surprised he ran unplaced (4th) that day but he was weak in the market and he may not have been wound up. If he is strong, or at least not weak in the market then he is the
one to beat. MATTEROFACT 8/1 could run well and her "3 runs" is a big advantage I believe. I am put off by the fact she had a big draw advantage last time and appeared to run above herself when she was a 100/1 chance and that does put me off. If you bet David Elsworths INDECENT PROPOSAL I think you run the risk of her not being doing her best and being handicapped.FISOLA isnt from a stable you would fear with debutants and WALKLIKEANEGYPTIAN looks good value at 7/2.

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SALISBURY 2.40 - 13/8 Abide, 7/2 Phantasmagoria, 4/1 Blue Lullaby, 8/1 Beautiful Mover, Downland, 10/1 Jubilee Dawn,
20/1 Sister Eugenie, 33/1 Belle Encore, 66/1 Dolly

ABIDE 13/8 is pretty exposed. Its interesting that 5 of the 6 winners of this race had raced just once this year, Yet horses that raced twice or more this year had a 0-16 record. ABIDE has had 4 starts and you may expect something to improve past her. The "ideal" types that had just 1 race this season are 7/2 Phantasmagoria, 8/1 Beautiful Mover and 8/1 Downland. I dont feel I can say with any great certainty what should win. These are horses whose improvement cant be judged accurately, but statistically you are far better to stay with a fancied runner, that raced once this year than a favourite thats exposed. I also like BLUE LULLABY at 4/1. She was well backed at Thirsk a couple of runs ago. Last year she was well thought of and well bred. Its interesting that she has now been given a rating of 67 by the handicapper and holds several entries in handicaps this week. I would have selected BLUE LULLABY but she is drifting badly and out to 11/1 and its entirely possible that she has other days where they want her to perform. Something doesnt smell right with her. She could come back in and be supported later and if so she is the pick but as things stand I worry about her chance in light of a severe market weakness. I Dont think she looks too
much like a "Trier" so I would consider the best backed of Downland or Beautiful Mover as the selection. Both are about 12/1 and have raced once this year like most winners of this race had, and both are clearly capable of better than they have shown. Hopefully the market can split them.

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