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Account Bet

No Bet

We are about to get very busy from Saturday Onwards. There is no Racing on Friday (Good Friday)
and from Saturday we start daily messages and can look forward what will be a fascinating Flat Season.
I Intend to send Saturdays E Mail at 12.30 pm at the latest.

Today there is just 1 race at Chepstow that offers an edge statistically and if you want a bet , perhaps a small win
bet on Flying Enterprise at 3/1 is reasonable as an option. This is the last Jumps Race I intend to look at this season.
Its the Flat all the way from now.

I Think a small each way bet on MAARAHEL in the Sheema Classic on Saturday in Dubai is sensible. I
considered this as possibly worth a small account bet but we only have 3 firms betting on the race at the moment
and there is not enough firms betting on the race to ensure everyone has a fair crack of the whip. I Have backed
Maarahel myself . I have not backed Flying Enterprise mainly as I am focussed only on the Flat at the moment.


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Talking Points

* Dubai Saturday - MAARAHEL 12/1 Corals , Paddy Power (10/1 Hills)

Saturday Nad El Sheba 2:55- Dubai Sheema Classic Sponsored By Dubai Water Front (4yo+) 1m4f
Cherry Mix (11/4), Greys Inn (7/2), Powerscourt (9/2), Phoenix Reach (5/1), Maraahel (12/1), Prince Arch (12/1), Razkalla (16/1), Tycoon
(16/1), Fight Your Corner (20/1), Collier Hill (25/1), Omikron (50/1)

David Milnes has told me to bet MARAAHEL each way at 12/1 for The Sheema Classic at NAD AL SHEBA on Saturday. MARAAHEL
is 12/1 (Corals, Paddy Power) also 10/1 with William Hill and these are the only available prices . Obvioulsy we know very little about
this race, or indeed about several of the runners from all over the globe and I have no detailed stats for the race. This race was first run
in 1998, was promoted to Group One status in 2002 and is run over 12 furlongs on turf and it is invariably very fast ground. Looking at
the 7 previous winners the only thing you can say is that 4 year olds do look to have the best record. Horses aged 4 lead with 5 wins from the 7 renewals and the only 2 renewals they did not win were when having very little chance with outsiders in those renewals and nothing fancied. I Think it is a race that suits 4 year olds on past evidence. With MARAAHEL all I can tell you is that before he flew out a couple of weeks ago he was working brilliantly and Stoute was delighted with his winter progress. Last year he won the Gordon Stakes before failing to stay in the St Leger. He is a 12f horse and a fast ground horse and he gets both those on Saturday . My Gut feelings tell me Stoute would not run him unless he felt he had a decent chance, and Stoute knows what it takes to win this as he won it in 2000 with Fantastic Light . The horse carries confidence but it is a red hot contest and a race that little insight can be gained through standard form or statistical study. The fact that he has not had a "prep race" is no statistical problem. Although last years winner did have a prep race the race has been won several times by horses without a previous race , and several of the placed horses have also come here for their first run of the year. The likelyhood of fast ground makes CHERRY MIX the favourite quite vulnerable and there is not a great deal of strength in the race. I think a small each way bet on MARAAHEL is interesting. The fact he is a big price (12/1) does help though and if you fancy a plunge on him I can tell you he is fancied to run a big race and David thinks thats really far too big a price.

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* Other Ante Post News

Aside from MARAAHEL in Dubai I Had a chat with David yesterday about some other Ante Post races. Firstly the 1000 Guineas. A
Few weeks ago there was good money for DISCUSS of Micheal Stoutes. This is generally a 16/1 chance and you can lay that on Betfair.
David just mentioned that the horse has had a slight setback and would probably not be able to run in any trials. Going straight to
Newmarket is not that big a problem these days but DISCUSS would have to have a cloud over his chance of running at Newmarket. I
certainly wouldnt be laying it at 16/1 , but if I had backed it I would be concerned and would rather cancel the bet. In the 2000 Guineas , he is, and always has been firmly behind DUBAWI at 6/1 at this stage but its a bit early to start looking at Classics. In terms of The Lincoln, Davids best news which I reported the other week concerned DIVINE GIFT . Recent work has been impressive. He was due to work again this morning and at the moment confidence is growing in his chance. I Wont be advising a Lincoln selection until the draw is known as it just makes no sense at this stage.


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Today's Racing



Chepstow 2.05 -Betting Forecast: 5/2 Flying Enterprise, 7/2 Darrias, 9/2 The Grocers Curate, 11/2 Bonny Grey, 6/1 Enhancer, 12/1
L´Eau Du Nil, 14/1 Flying Druid, 25/1 Bar Gayne, Dangerous Dan McGo, Tass Heel, Titian Flame, 33/1 Dancinginthestreet, 100/1
Julandi, 200/1 Arctic Blue, Aricovair, Glanworth

I Think the statistics point to weaknesses in the lighter raced horses, and the horses that have had few runs this year. They also show a bias towards the fitter types wwith multiple runs , and the fact the ground has eased overnight should make these conclusions stronger. The lighter raced horses I am keen to oppose include Darrias , The Grocers Curate and L´Eau Du Nil. I Think the fitter horseslike BONNY GREY who may just be a little bit of each way Value at about 8/1 , and FLYING ENTERPRISE have an edge here. I would not go mad but Fitness is the big angle at Chepstow and we have history on our side in coming to these conclusions.
DARRIAS 7/2 and L 'EAU DU NIL 12/1 are both 4 year olds. The record of this age group is weak and have never won it from 16
runners. It appears a tall order for 4 year olds to cope with this ruthless track against older horses and when they are lightly raced the
problems are compounded further . Its fair to say the vast majority of the 4 year olds that tried to win this race were outsiders , but 3
were beaten Favs. Monte Cinto (5/4) was beaten when falling in this last year and there were 2 previous beaten favourites aged 4 in
recent years. My Gut feeling tells me you should bet an older runner, ideally a 5 year old. With DARRIAS he also fails the absence
statistic. Should he win he would not only be the sole 4 year old winner, but he would have done it having had a bigger absence from the track than any of the past 8 winners. DARRIAS is also vulnerable as a horse thats raced just once before. Quite often this type are not fit enough to win at Chepstow. Horses that had just 1 race that season were 1 from 23 in this race, and that winner was in 1993
(Whitechappel) who was a very decent flat handicapper. Whitechappel was of course the only winner that won this with less than 2
previous races . Everything we know about this race, and this track, dictate that you are far better off with more than 2 races this season, and with his age group being winnerless so far I suggest that DARRIAS has to be a poor option here. I also think that L´EAU DU NIL, as another 4 year old, with an 87 day absence is also best avoided. This should open the race up.
THE GROCERS CURATE 7/2 is also weak statistically despite having been heavily backed again .The Need for fitness on this stiff
track is undeniable. The fact THE GROCERS CURATE (7/2) has only ran once before , and 51 days ago also worries me. There was a
lot of money for him on his debut , but I remember that day that he was statistically vulnerable , and he blew up after running well. This
horse is owned by Terry Wogan. He is a Big horse and may be hard to get fit and we know he had an early season injury that kept him off the track for a while and his 51 days absence may suggest another problem. Looking at the market you might feel concerned about
opposing such a heavily backed runner but I cant see how he can be at peak fitness, such is his size , the fact he has ran just once , and over 7 weeks ago so I want to overlook him as well.

BONNY GREY 11/2 has 2 statistical failures to overcome in that she is a Mare , and a 7 year old and neither have won this race.
Personally I would ignore the 0-18 record for Mares as they made up only 14 of the 18 losers and they were almost all huge prices .
Thats a deceptive stat. I would also ignore the fact that 7 year olds are just 0-13 as very few tried, and they were mainly big prices as
well. She is a big player statistically in light of the previous negatives for Darrias, The Grocers Curate and L´Eau Du Nil . She ran very
well when 2nd in the same Wincanton maiden hurdle that Lannkaran ran in before winning this in 1998. Two factors that concern me
about her are the fact that she is trained by David Evans and that she is a small horse. Whilst David Evans is a trainer in form he is not
the sort of trainer you want on your side against the likes of Hobbs, Henderson, Nicholls and Williams. I also dislike the fact she has
little size as this is a big boys track and small horses can ofter flatter to decieve at this place.

ENHANCER 16/1 is another 7 year old but I wouldnt be too worried about that as I explained above. His 33 day absence isnt ideal
though and it remains to be seen if he is fit enough to win this with just 1 race since November. He would also be vulnerable to heavy rain which we have had and his weakness in the betting (6/1-16/1) speaks for itself.

Conclusion

I do like Bonny Grey statistically at 8/1 but I think the best option has to be FLYING ENTERPRISE who is rock solid statistically. He is
the perfect age (5) . His trainer is in excellent form (Her recent runners at 6/1 or less are 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 2) and Venetia Williams has
trained many Chepstow winners. FLYING ENTERPRISE Has 11st 7lbs and the record of horses that carried that is excellent (4-10). He
has the required number of starts , far more than most of his opposition have had , and he has a bit of class as well. He was a Listed
winner over hurdles in France . We know he loves soft ground and he should be one of the fittest horses in the race. His first run in
England at Taunton was a little dissapointing , but he made up for that at Ludlow when giving 4lbs to Medison (hacked up in the Imperial Cup next time out) , which we now know was an impossible task , and ran him to a short head. The 3rd and 4th were beaten a long way behind him, and both those runners had won better Novice Hurdles than this one. I also like his breeding , and I am hoping that his fitness will tell in this race and I make him the selection. The Market shows him as a little "weak" as the money has come for the lighter raced types like The Grocers Curate and Leau Du Nil but I still think we should stay with fitness and 3/1 is fair.

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Todays Stats

Chepstow 2.05 - 8 renewals and 103 runners (Novice Hurdle)
Chepstow 2.05 - 4 year olds are weak (0-16) as 5 year olds are best (5-35) . Horses aged 7 or more are 0-13
Chepstow 2.05 - Horses that ran 32 or more days ago are 0-32
Chepstow 2.05 - All 18 female horses lost
Chepstow 2.05 - Horses at 6/1 and over are 0-84
Chepstow 2.05 - Horses coming from Bumpers are 0-10
Chepstow 2.05 - 2 runs or more this year (7-58) is far better than 0 or 1 run (1-43)
Chepstow 2.05 - Unraced horses (0-17) , and "Once raced" horses (1-20) look avoidable
Chepstow 2.05 - Horses carrying 11st 7lbs or more excel (4-10)

Chepstow 2.40 - 7 renewals and 71 runners (Selling Hurdle)
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses with a 48 + day absence are only 1-18
Chepstow 2.40 - Female horses underperform (1-23)
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses at 8/1 and over are just 1-50
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses that had not placed 1-2-3 in their last 6 races are just 1-28
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses coming from a Novice race are 0-20
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses with less than 4 career starts are 0-17
Chepstow 2.40 - Seasonal debutants (0-9) , and horses with less than 4 runs this year (1-28) may not be fit enough
Chepstow 2.40 - Horses with 11st 1lbs or more are best (4-20)

Chepstow 3.15 - 7 renewals and 66 runners (Handicap Chase)
Chepstow 3.15 - Horses aged 10 (1-19) and 10 and over (1-32) underperform
Chepstow 3.15 - Horses at 12/1 and over are just 1-28
Chepstow 3.15 - Horses stepping up in trip or racing at 3m (5-26) outscore horses dropping in trip (2-40)
Chepstow 3.15 - Horses with less than 4 races this season are 0-24

Chepstow 3.50 - 10 renewals and 87 runners
Chepstow 3.50 - Horses that had not run within a month are 0-24
Chepstow 3.50 - Horses at 8/1 and over are 0-44
Chepstow 3.50 - Horses that ran in Class B or higher last time are 3-3
Chepstow 3.50 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out are 0-36
Chepstow 3.50 - Maidens are just 1-43
Chepstow 3.50 - Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more are just 1-14

Chepstow 5.00 - 8 Renewals and 112 runners (Bumper)
Chepstow 5.00 - 4 year olds underperform (1-22)
Chepstow 5.00 - Horses coming from Kempton are 3-9
Chepstow 5.00 - All 22 female horses lost
Chepstow 5.00 - Horses at 16/1 and over are 0-59
Chepstow 5.00 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4 last time out were just 1-31
Chepstow 5.00 - 3 career runs (1-4) may be best as 1 or 2 runs (3-43) slightly outscored debutants (4-65)

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