Account Bet

No Bet

Rain and Plenty of significant non runners that have radically changed several races today make it trappy.
I have had to chop and change the message several times because of this and its not as long as it was. I dont
think its that hard today but prices have been slashed and more non runners are likely so I am going no bet.
I think horses that really should win are Victory Design (2.25), Imperial Sword (6.30) and Miss Particular (9.05).
For those that are more interested in bigger prices , I think Barry Hills has every chance of winning the last 3 races at Ripon with Alfonso (9/1) in the 8.05 and Grigorovitch 5/1 in the 8.35 with the last leg Miss Particular. The pick of the best bet is no more than a token gesture but I would nominate Grigorovitch and Alfonos as both are good value and fair prices.


*************
*************


Today's Racing


Lingfield 3.00 -100/30 Kiama, 4/1 Gurrun, 6/1 Finland, 8/1 Empangeni, Mr Kalandi, 10/1 Inn For The Dancer, 12/1 Wembury Point, 14/1 Flaming Weapon, 16/1 Finnegans Rainbow, 20/1 Creek Dancer, Loitokitok, Ophistrolie, Thorny Mandate, 33/1 Stolen

I think this is between KIAMA and FINLAND. This is a race where so many horses are capable of so much improvement, that its impossible to judge just how much some will improve. I do think we can narrow it down though. These are young horses. This is the bottom grade outside Selling company. These horses have been handicapped on very low handicap marks. Some will be useless. Others will win race and maybe 1 or 2 will go on and win several races. What strikes me about this race , is that we should be opposing the horses that have already had several races. After all , if a horse hasnt managed to improve out of Class 6 grade after several starts , then he is probably no better than the grade he is in. Thats just theory but I believe in it. I cant back this up with statistics for this race as there has only been 1 renewal , a horse that had 4 races . I have taken all similar races in this class at this time of year over distances between 11 and 12f and looked at just how many inexperienced winners there were and the findings do seem to agree with me that you dont want a horse thats ran so many times and still hasnt improved out of the bottom grade. From the 18 previous handicaps I looked at I found a strong bias to horses that had ran 3-6 times before. These types won 14 of the 18 races (77.7%) from just 59% of the runners. Its hardly compellling but still a definate advantage and thats where I would go here. I would ignore the horses that had ran multiple times and had not yet improved out of this grade. This for me suggests we should Ignore these exposed runners, GURRUN 4/1 (16 races) , MR KALINDI 8/1 (11 races) and WEMBURY POINT 12/1 (15 races). I would add a few more negatives to the list after watching a few videos. I think EMPANGENI may need another run and more time before winning. I have opposed GURRUN as he is too exposed. I Thought he ran well on video last time, and this may be an easier race on official ratings, but I
have to stand by the opposition to him. Last time at Beverley I opposed him against Carpet Ride for exactly the same reason and he found 2 "improvers" beating him and I Think something will do that again to him. On the same Beverley card I thought FINLAND ran very well and I can see him winning handicaps, but it does concern me that he left Mark Johnston after just 1 race last year and downgraded stables to Ann Duffield much as she is in form. IN FOR THE DANCER ran reasonably well last time but didnt seem to be staying on that well over 10f last time and I think he is vulnerable to rain or soft ground. I thought the most interesting runner with just the 1 issue was KIAMA . Trained by a genius, and ideally exposed with just 4 starts she finished 3rd at Nottingham. Bearing in mind the runner up (Golden Gate) and the 4th (Master Joseph) have since come out and won handicaps the form looks more than good enough for this. The 1 issue she faces is whether she stays. Its hard to be confident that she will stay and improve . I just dont know. I Am going to give her the nenefit of the doubt as her trainer has made the bold move to step her up in trip and he must have had reason to, and because the Dam was never raced at middle distances but she was out of Bustino and there is stamina there in abundance and she may well improve for that step up in trip. KIAMA is the selection but stamina doubts suggest she should be a win bet.

*************
*************

Ripin 7.00- 6/4 Financial Future, 6/1 Always Flying, Mac´s Elan, 10/1 Cantemerle, Kiev, 14/1 Acca Larentia, Platinum Boy, 33/1 Plumpie Mac, 66/1 Humdinger

Its easy to think that this time last year Mark Johnston's FINANCIAL FUTURE was rated in the 90's and has to be very well handicapped after what looks a return to form last time in a 0-75 at Musselburgh. That may be dangerous though as the small field handicap he was 3rd in could well flatter him and he is a short price. The question is what he has to beat. He looks to have met runners who would be better on better ground. Mark Johnston used to train ALWAYS FLYING as well , but he is another thats best on a sound surface and he doesnt have the best of attitudes as a 1-27 career record illustrates. MAC´S ELAN looks a well handicapped little horse admittedly with limiations. He ran well over an inadequate trip last time and steps up to a distance more in line with his breeding, but he only modest , he is still a maiden from 19 races and his stable dont inspire much with just a 3-110 record in the last 5 years . CANTEMERLE is another modest maiden but will like the conditions and may one day pinch a desperate race . So this does all depend on whether FINANCIAL FUTURE has shown he is recapturing his old form. It is very easy to argue that he is not, and that he was flattered last time but its also significant that Johnston has kept him in his stable and hasnt sold him and with the modest ability of his rivals, and the lack of soft ground form against him he has to be given the benefit of the doubt.

*************
*************

Ripon 8.05 - 11/4 Cesare, 6/1 San Antonio, 8/1 Riley Boys, 9/1 Young Mr Grace, 10/1 Alfonso, Apex, Goodbye Mr Bond, 11/1 Sawwaah, 12/1 Blonde Streak, Langford, 14/1 Dispol Veleta, 16/1 Definite Guest, 25/1 Isidore Bonheur,

I didnt fancy CESARE 11/4 when he won on his seasonal debut at Leicester. I thought the step back in trip to 7f was going to be against a horses that was a half brother to Nowhere to Exit, and I thought the fact that he was only a small horse was off-putting. He proved me wrong there and back up to a mile there should be some improvement. I think the fact that he hasnt ran for 48 days though is a worry. We know thatall 27 horses that failed to run within a month lost in this race, and that included 4 beaten favourites. I dont think you can assume he is a poor bet based on that statistic but the 48 days absence is worrying as it suggests he may have had a setback, and I would oppose him as he is still a young horse and is 7lbs higher and moving from a 0-80 to a 0-90. I think finding an alternative isnt easy . Any of half a dozen could win but I am drawn to ALFONSO. Progressive as a 3 year old he looked an excellent prospect this year as a half brother to Pablo and San Antonio (who runs in this race) . He warmed up with 2 encouraging races this season before going to Chester in May. I didnt fancy him that day. He was too inexperienced for that race , (something which isnt an issue in this race with several lightly raced winners) and I didnt think he would stay the 10.5f trip at Chester. What surprised me at Chester was the agressive ride he got from the front, which also undermined his stamina and he ran a really good race leading until the final bend from one of the worst draws, and considerably eased once beaten. He wasnt given a hard time once beaten and this ground, and step back in trip looks perfect. He can run well from the front and His stable are in strong form and his trainer Barry Hills has a strong record (28%) at this track. He also drops in class. Chester was a 0-97 handicap. This is a 0-88. The Average Official Ratings at Chester were 90.25. Today they are much lower and 82.33 . The Chester race included 10 horses that would be automatically Top Weight today, it was a far better class of race and off 9st 6lbs and a mark of 84 he looks a horse more than capable of winning from his current
mark. At 12/1 he is a sporting bet .

*************
*************

Ripon 8.35 - 3/1 Bird Over, 4/1 Tax Free, Yorkshire Lad, 5/1 Grigorovitch, 10/1 Bold Haze, Paris Bell, Sentiero Rosso, 25/1 Leslingtaylor, Matsunosuke, Tiviski, 33/1 World At My Feet,

I thought a few were closely matched. I liked YORKSHIRE LAD after his recent win was boosted by the runner up winning next time out . I thought BIRD OVER was opposable as a filly conceeding weight to improving colts much as her form chance is obvious, and I also like GRIGOROVITCH who looks to be improving and should relish this step up to 6f on soft ground. Couldnt find enough negatives to make it a
viable race to play in but given an ultimatum I think 5/1 each way about GRIGOROVITCH was the value here. I would be surprised if BIRD OVER , who has just won a 0-71 handicap, could give 6lbs to GRIGOROVITCH who has just ran a close 3rd in a 0-85 handicap. He looks to have better form and possibly more progression.

*************
*************

Ripon 9.05 - Evs Miss Particular, 9/4 Piccolomini, 4/1 Elraawy, 20/1 Ingleby Cross, 25/1 Crimson Bow, 33/1 Bottomless Wallet, Encrypt, Paint The Lily, 50/1 Swinton,

ELRAAWY is a non runner but I wanted to oppose him so its dissapointing he has been withdrawn. We know from the betting, the poor record of small stables, the history of past winners and the prior achievements of all past winners that this really should only concern the market leaders MISS PARTICULAR from Barry Hills (2-3 record in this race) and PICCOLOMINI from Mark Johnston's . Overall I think MISS
PARTICULAR Is the clear pick and far better bred for the test that PICCOLOMINI who being by Diktat may not be as suited to this race as the favourite who I think is fair value at 4/5 in what looks a match.

*************
*************

OTHER OPINIONS

Ripon 6.30 - I did a preview in this race suggesting Global Warning but he and Zabeel House the 2nd and 3rd favourites are non runners so the race has been left at the mercy of Imperial Sword despite the fact he isnt proven on soft ground.

*************
*************

Today's Stats

Ripon 6.30 - 7 renewals and 101 runners
Ripon 6.30 - Horses that had never ran in at least Class D before are 0-16
Ripon 6.30 - Fillies are just 1-27
Ripon 6.30 - Horses that had ran before, but had not achieved at least a 1-2-3 placing before are 0-40
Ripon 6.30 - No advantage in number of runs
Ripon 6.30 - Newmarket horses are 3-9
Ripon 6.30 - M Johnson is 2-6 with a further 3 horses placed

Ripon 7.35 - 12 renewals and 129 runners
Ripon 7.35 - Less than 9 career starts are 1-19
Ripon 7.35 - Just 1 race this year is 1-24
Ripon 7.35 - 6/7 year olds are best (6-44) as 4 year olds (2-37) are weak as are 8yrs or more (1-25)
Ripon 7.35 - Absence from the track is irrelevant but Claiming jockeys (4-32) fair well over Pro's (8-97)
Ripon 7.35 - Horses that ran in Class C before but no higher are 0-36

Ripon 8.05 -14 renewals and 163 runners
Ripon 8.05 -All 13 seasonal debutants lost
Ripon 8.05 -Horses aged 8 or more are 1-21
Ripon 8.05 -Horses that didnt run within 1 month are 0-27
Ripon 8.05 - Claiming jockeys are 0-36
Ripon 8.05 -Horses coming from Class E/D are best (11-84) as those from Class C are just 1-42
Ripon 8.05 - T Easterby is 0-7

Ripon 8.35 - 14 renewals and 244 runners
Ripon 8.35 - Just 3 runs (0-28) and just 4 runs (1-28) underperform
Ripon 8.35 - Seasonal debutants (1-27) are weak
Ripon 8.35 - 4-7 races this season (7-50) are far better than 1-3 runs this year (6-158)
Ripon 8.35 - Horses that ran in Class B or higher before are 0-25
Ripon 8.35 - Fillies (3-106) are weak
Ripon 8.35 - Horses coming from Class F (1-36) and Class G (0-13) are weak
Ripon 8.35 - Horses coming from 5f races are weak (1-45)
Ripon 8.35 - Horses that didnt run in a Handicap last time out are 0-69
Ripon 8.35 - All 29 horses that came from a Maiden race lost
Ripon 8.35 - Horses from Thirsk are 1-30 . Horses from Newcastle (3-30) and Haydock (3-14) are better
Ripon 8.35 - D Nichols is 0-5 . J Quinn is 0-6 . M Johnston is 0-6. T Easterby is 0-10

Ripon 9.05 - 11 renewals and 116 runners
Ripon 9.05 - Debutants are weak (1-25) as 3-5 races are best (4-15)
Ripon 9.05 - Horses at 10/1 and over are 1-76
Ripon 9.05 - Horses that ran within 15 days underperform (1-25)
Ripon 9.05 - Horses that were 2-3-4 last time out are best (8-25)
Ripon 9.05 - Northern runners are 0-60
Ripon 9.05 - H Cecil is 4-9 . B Hills is 2-3


*************
*************

THURSDAYS STATS

Ayr 2.30 - 12 renewals and 77 runners
Ayr 2.30 - Unraced horses are 0-16
Ayr 2.30 - Seasonal debutants are 1-27
Ayr 2.30 - Horses coming from a Grade 1 track are 5-9
Ayr 2.30 - Horses aged 4 or more are 1-14
Ayr 2.30 - Fillies (6-26) score well
Ayr 2.30 - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time are 0-18

Ayr 3.30 - 11 similar renewals and 132 runners
Ayr 3.30 - Less than 13 career starts is 1-25
Ayr 3.30 - 0-2 races this year are best (7-41) as 4 + runs (2-65) and 5 + runs (1-44) are weak
Ayr 3.30 - Horses from Thirsk are 0-24
Ayr 3.30 - All 9 horses aged 3 lost
Ayr 3.30 - All 9 horses that ran in Group class before lost
Ayr 3.30 - Horses that ran within 7 days are 1-33
Ayr 3.30 - Fillies are 0-21
Ayr 3.30 - Horses whose best placing in their last 6 races was 2nd are 0-29
Ayr 3.30 - Horses dropping from 8f or more are 0-27
Ayr 3.30 - Course winners (7-41) are better than those who havent won at Ayr before (3-79)
Ayr 3.30 - J Goldie is 2-9

Ayr 4.30 - 13 renewals and 103 runners
Ayr 4.30 - Less than 7 career starts are 1-20
Ayr 4.30 - Less than 2 races this year are 0-7
Ayr 4.30 - All 11 horses that ran in listed class or higher before lost
Ayr 4.30 - Horses that didnt run within 31 days are 0-17 as under 7 days is best (5-25)
Ayr 4.30 - Any weight can win but 8st 11lbs or less (9-53) outperform 9st or more (4-50)

Bath 3.20 - 12 renewals and 131 runners
Bath 3.20 - Unraced horses are poor (1-28)
Bath 3.20 - 1-2 runs this year (7-66) beat seasonal debutants (5-63)
Bath 3.20 - Claiming jockeys are 0-15
Bath 3.20 - Horses that came from Class E-F-G last time out are 0-14
Bath 3.20 -B Hills is 3-6 . M Stoute is 2-4

Bath 4.20 - 13 similar renewals and 168 runners
Bath 4.20 - Seasonal debutants are 1-41
Bath 4.20 - Less than 13 career starts are 1-52 (17 started 10/1 or less) and that included 4 beaten favourites
Bath 4.20 - Horses aged 9 or more are 0-17
Bath 4.20 - Horses that ran within 15 days are strong (8-50)
Bath 4.20 - Horses coming from Class F (1-31) or G (0-10) underperform
Bath 4.20 - Horses coming from 12f or under last time are 0-37
Bath 4.20 - Horses that didnt run in a handicap last time are 0-23
Bath 4.20 - Maidens are just 1-53