No Account Bets

Pretty Viscious Today and No Flat Racing on Grass to consider. This is the first time in years I have done a message on Aintree friday as it was traditionally impossible to find winners. Todays no exception.
I have only one race today I feel I can play in and thats the 4.20 race where a small each way bet on Senorita Rumbalita at about 9/1 Looks to be the Best Option to me.

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TALKING POINTS

* Thursday's Summary

The 2 account bets resulted in a Non Runner (Mars Rock) and a Loser in Lucys Lady 10/1 who never got into the race and didnt fulfill the promise I felt I had seen in him. Loss of £15 on the day.

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STAKED RACES

No Races Today I want to stake a Bet In



NON STAKED RACES

I said yesterday that Aintree Thursday in 2005 was a Poor Message as we had a losing day last year. Today I can tell you that Aintree Friday in 2005 and Aintree Friday in 2004 was so hard that I didnt even do a message on those days and looking at todays cards I can understand why as it looks pretty impossible. We have no Flat Racing on Turf and an Aintree Card that leaves me Cold.Saturday we look like Losing Newcastle the Only Flat fixture so I fear for Tomorrows Prospects as well and its not looking good at the moment for strong bets especially as Rain looks to be coming Tonight.

In terms of the Grand National I think its the most open in years. The Frustrating thing about this years race is that you can build a very strong case for several runners but you can also strongly criticise their chances as well and most of the issues are impossible to predict. You dont have any real insight into how HEDGEHUNTER has come out of Cheltenham and what his recovery from his hard race there will be like and if you give him the benefit of the doubt you cant judge how 11st 10lbs will hurt him. You cant judge how much Stamina Clan Royal has and even if you think he will stay what value is there in his price. You cant assess how Cornish Rebel will take to Aintree Fences. There are so many Imponderables that I cant remember an open race in the National like this for a Long time. I was slowly moving towards a Midweek Conclusion to tip SIR REMBRANDT in the race and that was likely to have been my selection but now he is out of the race through being Lame. I was very close to siding with CORNISH REBEL as well at 25/1. I probably would have selected him had he had 6lbs less weight but the weight does bother me and his jumping also concerns me and my gut feeling is he wont get round. With 24hrs to go I am not confident of a selection. I have backed Garvivonnian to small stakes already but the Mother and Mother In Law have been told to bet this as their Interest Bet and 6 years of Tipping has taught me that you Never Ever have a winner when you bet a horse yourself and Tip it to the In Laws and the Memership. To get the Clean Sweep is just asking too much and "Sods Law" has to overrule and Garvivonnian Would get me so much credit and Goodwill in my personal life that its inconceivable that anything so good could happen so there is no way I will curse that by Tipping Him. At this stage it looks like a "no bet" Grand National in terms of a selection. I have had a small bet on Cornish Rebel as I will be Gutted if he wins unbacked. I think it will turn out to be a race where I have a few small bets and a stab in the Dark . I am interested in Laying Clan Royal in running in the hope he looks the winner and doesnt stay. He was a short price during last years race before he was carried out and I may try and Catch him at 6/4 or 2/1 if he looks like he is going to run a massive race as I think he will tie up late and get caught. Looks very Much a "No tip" National but I intend to spend some time on the race today and Hopefully see something I have missed. At this stage I dont hold up much hope for a "Barnstorming" National Message. Back to today and there is a Viscious Card at Aintree and the Only race I like is the Novice Hurdle at 4.20


Aintree 4:20 - John Smith's Imagine Appeal Top Novices' Hurdle Grade 2 (Class 1) (4yo+) 2m110y

3/1 Desert Quest, Straw Bear, 11/2 Bureaucrat, 7/1 Conna Castle, 9/1 Senorita Rumbalita, 12/1 Welcome Stranger, 20/1 The Duke´s Speech, Whispered Promises, 22/1 Circassian, 25/1 Wanango, 33/1 Auenmoon, 50/1 Moon Over Miami, Temple Place, 66/1 Classic Role, 100/1 Yenaled, 250/1 Arctic Cove,

Selection - SENORITA RUMBALITA each way 9/1

The First Point to Make is that You have just 6 runners at less than 25/1 in the betting and there is very little strength in depth in this race and if you can select between the fancied runners you have got half a chance. I want to oppose DESERT QUEST here. When you look at it he has just won a handicap yet he has to give weight to STRAW BEAR a horse thats just come 2nd in a Photo in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices' Hurdle at cheltenham. Its hard to expect a Handicapper to concede that weight when you consider that All 24 horses since 1991 that came from a Handicap into this race Lost . Its never been won by a "handicapper"m in recent memory so to consider betting a Handicapper like DESERT QUEST with Topweight when a short price goes against the Grain to me much as he does look a fast improving horse. The other factor that May be against DESERT QUEST is the fact he would be the most exposed winer of this in recent memory. He is having his 10th start of the Campaign and the Last 13 winners had all ran between 2 and 8 times before. The last big Flop was in 2004 when the Hot favourite Bold Bishop flopped when the most exposed horse in the race and All 20 horses that came into this race with over 8 previous races lost. I just think the trends are against DESERT QUEST. I cant have WELCOME STRANGER either at 14/1. No horse has won this with just 1 previous race. There havent been many fancied runners in the 10 that tried and failed to win this with one race. The last with a chance was Swan knight in 2001 who pulled up at 5/1 that year and despite the fact WELCOME STRANGER was a quality Flat horse I think its asking a lot for him to win this on just his 2nd start especially when the ground could be softer than he appreciates. I think the interesting runners are SENORITA RUMBALITA , STRAW BEAR and BUREAUCRAT. I think one of these will win. I have nothing against 4 year olds in this race although a 1-20 record in the last 15 years hardly suggests they are favoured but I am opposing BUREAUCRAT 8/1 as a 4 year old that may find the ground going against him now the rains have come. His trainer insists "good ground" is important to his chance and as he comes via Hereford I think this may be a bridge too far for a 4 year old. If you look at the record of horses that came from Small Grade 3-4-5 tracks like Hereford into this race all 28 horses that tried that approcah lost. I Respect STRAW BEAR a lot and I cant give you any sound reasons why he shouldnt win but I want to a) Bet Each way in the race and b) Bet a horse laid out for the race. I have no great problem with betting Cheltenham runners in this trace. Statistically they do and Can win the race but I would just favour a traditional "Aintree" preperation and CONNA CASTLE and SENORITA RUMBALITA both have this and look both laid out for the race. I like CONNA CASTLE and wont be shocked if he wins but I do think he may be happier over a stiffer test than this and 2 miles on a Flat Track . I am siding with SENORITA RUMBALITA at 9/1 each way.

Alan King has his Liverpool team in exceptional form with 4 horses running 2nd yesterday. I Like the fact She is a 5 year old as the last 3 winners of this race were 5 year olds. I have no problem with her being a Mare as one of these won in 1995. I think her preperation is the best in the race as she comes from the Dovecote Hurdle. This race has traditionally been run at Kempton in Febuary but this year its been run in Febuary at Sandown. The record of horses that come from thev Dovecote Hurdle is excellent (2-5). Roll A Dollar (1993) Won this race coming from the Dovecote Hurdle. In 2001 Ilico II won this coming straight from the Dovecote. SENORITA RUMBALITA has won 3 of her 5 Novice Hurdles. She would have had a W W W W W record were it not for going Lame in one of her races and a saddle slipping in the other race. I think she is progressive, coming from the best "prep" race, laid out for the meeting and from a stable showing that they are in good form. At 9/1 each way she is the only selection on the day.

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