No Account Bet

Not an easy day today. Certainly not over the Jumps with some horrible looking big fields and races full of strong
stables running debutants that you do not know if they are fit and ready yet. I didnt get drawn in by many races at
all over the sticks and in the end I decided on 3 Races only today where I could see an edge. I think it is best to have a No Bet day and concentrate on Thursdays cards. Todays 3 selections are these.In the 1.20 at Wolverhampton I think a small each way bet on Night Prospector is reasonable. In the 2pm at Lingfield I though Bajan Sunshine 5/1 was well worth a bet each way. It should be hard to find 3 horses beating him. Finally in the Nursery at Kempton 4.20I like a split stake bet on Law Of The Land 7/1 and Prince of Charm 14/1. I cant offer you anything very strong today but todays 2 options are decent prices and should offer some value.

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Talking Points


NUDGE AND NURDLE came second yesterday at 100/30. I thought he ran a very good race and ran exactly how I thought he might but he came up against Henrietta Knights Best hurdler Ringaroses. I didnt fancy the winner based on the Stable trend with unraced hurdlers but he had more class. I thought at one stage I may have worried him out of it over the last but in the end the classier horse won. Had I known the SP of 100/30 I would have gone with the bet each way but you knew my thoughts on the bet yesterday and we took the full risk and that was a Loser. The rest of the e mail consisted on either short priced winners or second places and the other negatives going our way by duly getting beaten. I thought it was a pretty solid message but I felt forced into a win bet and perhaps we deserevd a little better than we got yesterday.

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Today's Racing

I am only looking at 3 races in today's message but I am going bto mention a Huge Priced Horse that will either Flop or win. This is PELLEAS in the 3.50 at Kempton. I Highlighted some time ago the brilliant record of Horses owned by Michael Pescod that ran on their second start. I wont reproduce the text you have seen a couple of times before. We have had to wait for any winnings from this angle though. He has had a short priced winner that was no good to us and seveal huge priced losers but it is still an angle I like and PELLEAS could be 20/1 or bigger. He is a throwaway Tenner bet . If he loses you should feel the bet wasnt significant yet it he wins it will be a nice pick up for a small stake.

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WOLVERHAMPTON 1.20 - 4/5 Trinculo, 11/2 Night Prospector, 8/1 Rainbow Bay, 14/1 Gifted Lass, 16/1 Mynd, Peruvian Style, Spirit Of Coniston, 20/1 Henry Tun, Patternmaker, Succeed, 25/1 Beverley Beau, 33/1 Twinned, Waggledance.

SELECTION - NIGHT PROSPECTOR Each Way 9/2

TRINCULO 15/8 and NIGHT PROSPECTOR 9/2 are the highest rated horses in this race from RAINBOW BAY6/1. I think the bet here is has to be the 6 year old NIGHT PROSPECTOR each way. Anyhorse that can finish 4th in a 0-84 handicap on their last chance has a chance of beating TRINCULO 11/10 getting 6lbs in weight. TRINCULO is a very decent horse in this sort of grade and could easily win but NIGHT PROSPECTOR whilst not the class horse he was should be very competetive in this grade and he appeals as the each way bet to me. I would far rather have him than the 3 year old RAINBOW BAY who is probably the other possible winner. Some people argue that NIGHT PROSPECTOR hasnt looked as good on sand but I dont buy that argument yet and see him as ideally bred for the surface. I think at the prices the best bet in this race has to be NIGHT PROSPECTOR EACH WAY

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KEMPTON 4.20 - 4/1 Susanna´s Prospect, 5/1 Benayoun, 6/1 My Secrets, 8/1 Emergency Services, Law Of The Land, 10/1 Froissee, 12/1 Fares, 14/1 Prince Of Charm, Sweet World, 16/1 Ask Yer Dad, 20/1 Burningfold Babe, Only Hope, 33/1 Alloro, Venir Rouge.

SELECTION - LAW OF THE LAND 8/1 with a Saver on PRINCE OF CHARM 14/1

If you remember yesterdays Analysis for the Nursery at Wolverhampton you may recall I was strongly against Mark Prescotts Horse (Stars Above) as she was trying to go from a 6f race to an 8f Nursery and that is something that hasnt been easy to do and I wasnt surprised to see his horse beaten. Today we have several more trying this including SUSANNA'S PROSPECT 4/1 as well as FROISSEE 10/1, FARES 12/1 , ASK YER DAD 16/1 and BURNINGFOLD BABE 20/1. I have to oppose these horses. I Really think 2 year olds struggle moving up strongly in distance . Since 1992 there have been 42 Long Distance Nursery's run in November before. Thats Nursery's at 8f or more. IF You look at the record of horses that tried to win one of these races coming from a race at 6 furlongs or less it is pretty miserable. Horses that tried to Move from 6f races or shorter into 8f races or longer had a 1-75 record. That winner was back in 1996 and a 33/1 shock in a selling nursery (Barachois Lad ). I have to Oppose SUSANNA'S PROSPECT 4/1 and the other horses that try the same thing. I dont want ONLY HOPE 22/1 a filly that has shown temprement. I think the winner of this race should be one of BENAYOUND, MY SECRETS , EMERGENCY SERVICES, LAW OF THE LAND or PRINCE OF CHARM. I have to question whether MY SECRET's will be fit enough with just one run since June and hardly a bet compelling run at that and he may fail for fitness today. BENAYOUN and EMERGENCY SERVICES come from a selling race last time. I havent got a major problem with that. I am going to oppose the runner up EMERGENCY SERVICES as I dont feel he is a natural Miler. I think this is a 3 horse race

PRINCE OF CHARM 14/1
BENAYOUN 8/1
LAW OF THE LAND 8/1

BENYOUN does have less experience than the other 2 but he is still a colt and to win a 8f Selling race last time coming from a 6f race against specialist Milers was a good effort and he looks well handicapped off 60. He is not very big and I am not sure what scope he has but he has to go on the shortlist. I have decided to stay with the experienced horses though. LAW OF THE LAND has a strong chance back at a Mile and I have nothing against him. He was running on over 7f two runs ago and didnt stay 9f last time out. This looks his optimum trip and he is a very solid runner. PRINCE OF CHARM 14/1 has to be
considered as well. You can probably ignore his last run on Heavy ground. It is hard to see him wanting that sort of ground. Go back to his previous race at Goodwood he was beaten only 1.5 lengths on a Grade 1 track in a 0-84 handicap and this is only a 0-65 Handicap on the sand. He is bred for dirt and from a traditional sand trainer and if he can put his last run behind him he has an excellent chance. I think one of these 3 horses will win this race. I think the best option is a Bet on LAW OF THE LAND 8/1 with a Saver on PRINCE OF CHARM 14/1. I havent neccesarily got the winner of this from my 3 shortlisted runners but this is the way I would go today.

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LINGFIELD 2.00 - 7/2 Nightfly, 5/1 Bajan Sunshine, 11/2 Thai Vango, 6/1 Olmeto Collonges, 7/1 Lappeenranta, 8/1 Greenhill Bramble, King Louis, Or Jaune, 14/1 Captain´s Legacy, 20/1 Gentle John, 33/1 The Beaming Bandit, 40/1 Raki Rose, 66/1 Auburn Grey, 200/1 Miss Domino.

SELCTION - BAJAN SUNSHINE 9/2 Each Way

The only 2 runners that I could fancy would be NIGHTFLY 11/4 and BAJAN SUNSHINE 9/2 and considering the frame of the race I think the best course of action is to bet BAJAN SUNSHINE 9/2 Each Way . This is a 2m 3.5f Novice Hurdle for horses aged 4-5-6. What you have in BAJAN SUNSHINE 9/2 is probably no worldbeater but he is a horse that has many things that others have not got. For example he has experience and he has hurdling experience and many in this race lack that. Experience has been a big issue. You look at the record of lightly raced horses in identical races like this horses with 0-1-2 career starts have a miserable record. I certainly couldnt have LAPPEENRANTA 10/1 with one run. His trainer Vic Dartnall has never had a "Once raced" hurdler win before and his Novices start winning properly in December and on all know trainer trends he would be a horse to bet next month not this. I think OLMETO COLLONGES 7/1 described as a future "soft ground 3m chaser" may be best left alone today. I think the experience that BAJAN SUNSHINE has over hurdles Is important. What you have are several horses that have only come from Bumper races. Horses like THAI VANGO 8/1 , LAPPEENRANTA 10/1 , GREENHILL BRAMBLE 14/1 , OR JAUNE 10/1 and others. I think the issues with Bumpers is pretty clear. You have to distinguish what type of Bumper horses they are. Are they Bumper horses that have ran in Graded Class before or are they Bumper Horses that have never run in Graded class. As an example in races like this the record of horses coming from Bumpers is just 2-72. However if you divide those horses into those that have ran in Championship Bumpers like the Cheltenham and Aintree Bumpers and Graded races it tells a vastly different story. The Horses that had ran in Graded Bumpers had a 2-4 record and those that had not ran in a Graded Bumper had a 0-68 record. Thats from the overall 2-72 record. That looks an important distinction to me and thats why I have shortlisted NIGHTFLY 11/4 as he has ran in a Graded Bumper before. GREENHILL BRAMBLE is the other Bumper runner with Graded form but he is from a stable that are 0-93 with Novice Hurdlers that have less than 2 runs that season and he may want another race to be fit enough. In the end I am isolating the Horses with Graded Bumpre form in NIGHTLY 11/4 and the horse that has no flaws and has the experience and fitness in BAJAN SUNRISE. I wouldnt worry about the penalty that BAJAN SUNSHINE has in this race. 8 horses carried that penalty and 4 won and they have penalties because they deserve them.
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