Review Message Tomorrow with some strong structural Changes that Have to be Made. Today a Generic look at many races in a format that wont be seen many times again. My
Best Bet of the day is at Lingfield in the 7.30 where WHISTLEUPTHEWIND at 4/1 is worth a bet. She is Number 11 on the race card. Dont get her mixed up with the Number 9 who has a very similar name (Whisper In The Wind) . The service will change from tomorrow and it wont suit everyone so tomorrows review is worth reading.

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Today's Racing


CHESTER

Pretty Open Novice race at 2.05 .

11/4 Northern Fling, 3/1 Invincible Force, 7/2 Dimboola, 4/1 Stolt, 5/1 Mind The Style,

The favourite NORTHERN FLING is the least experienced horse in the race. When yuu consider that in this race over the years horses that had less than 3 runs before had a 1-27 record, yet horses that had 3 or more runs had a 8-44 record it shows you that its better to have a bit of experience. NORTHERN FLING and INVINCIBLE FORCE also come from maiden races and thats NOT really ideal. Horses that come here having just won maidens have a poor record . They did win it in 1997 and 1998 when both years were dominated with similar types but the fact remains that 8 of the 10 past winners of this race, and the Last 6 winners of this race all came from a Novice event. I would OPPOSE the Market Leaders Northern Fling and Invincible Force. I think DIMBOOLA may win.

****

I dont see any edge in the 2.40. Looks tactical and should fall to Dream Champion but there isnt much margin for error there. The maiden race at 3.15 is quite interesting. The Racing Post prefer AVELIAN over MABADI in what looks a match but I think they have that wrong.

Chester 2.40 - 4/5 Mabadi, 5/4 Avelian, 14/1 Macho Dancer, 25/1 Skit, 100/1 Smoke It

I much prefer MADABI given the choice of market leaders. It should be a straight match between the market leaders as it is 25/1 every other runner. MADABI comes from the stable that has won 2 of the 3 renewals of this race. Barry Hills has a 2-2 record in this race. Both are lightly raced and we dont know how good they will turn out. Whilst MADABI is hardly related to Group 1 winners and bred in the purple her dam has produced far better quality than AVELIAN's dam and thats the imperfect method of class I have taken in this race. AVELIAN has 3 direct relatives. All 3 are useless 0-60 horses that have so far had a 0-37 career record. I think MADABI wins.

****

I thought the 3.50 Chester was too tough. All my stats could offer me was to say the 3 outsiders were the only negatives and that wasnt enough. The vast Majority of winners of this race were towards the top of the weights and the Classier types. This race has been run 13 times and All 13 times the winner came from the Top 6 in the weights. This suggests the winner will come from Calypso King, Blades Girl, Lunar Express, Zennerman , Jimmy The Guesser or Creative Mind.

****

In the CLAIMER at 4.20 I would have gone for the Non Runner had he ran (Secretary General) but he is out now. I havent a major problem about the favourite and last years winner IONIAN SPRING 15/8 but I would have prefered a bigger priced alternative. I dont fancy VALE DE LOBO. I think she has a tough task today but the each way options aganst the favourite like Cardinal Venture, Hawkit and Nashaab all have their own issues to overcome. I didnt think any were solid enough to make a case for against the favourite so its a race I had to bypass. I was half tempted by NASHAAB as he loves it here and his stable have won this race 3 times before and all 3 winners ran badly on their previous start as he has done. The Trip is his achilles heel though as he has never impressed at this trip before. You could give NASHAAB the oppurtunity to show he can stay. He hasnt had that many chances at 10f and none in grade as weak as this so at 8/1 I am tempted by NASHAAB but I do feel the last 300 yards you would be in the lap of the gods.

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NEWMARKET

Wont be involved in the MAIDEN (1.50) . Interestingly I said in yesterdays E Mail when Opposing Yaqueen an unraced 2 year from Michael Jarvis's stable that Jarvis was 0-51 with unraced 2 year olds at Newmarkets July Track. Yaqueen ran very well yesterday but he was beaten and that record stands at 0-52. In this race Jarvis runs another unraced horse called MESBAAH 3/1 . I would oppose him. His sire is 0-28 at the distance as well. The Money horse has been John Dunlop's SHMOOKH . Doesnt look a horse or a race where I can go much further.

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6/4 Hope´N´Charity, 11/2 Satulagi, 9/1 Christmas Tart, 10/1 Bridge It Jo, 12/1 Princess Georgina, 14/1 Eliza May, My Lovely Lesley, 16/1 El Toreador, Three Decades, 25/1 Fairfield Princess, Marmaida

The EMPRESS STAKES (2.25) is a race where you need some sound stats but the angles are not much help. Without some direction it looks too hard a race. The only stats I would pull out would be how horses that ran at Royal Ascot got on. Horses that ran in juvenile races at Ascot dont have much recovery time. In todays raceSATULAGI and CHRISTMAS TART the 3rd and 4th favourite ran at Ascot. The record overall is poor. The 1993 winner of this (Snipe Hall ) came via the Queen Mary at Ascot but that year all the fancied runners did and all 12 since then have been beaten. I would say its a negative to have ran at Ascot as both Satulagi and Christmas Tart achieved less than Snipe Hall. I would be opposing this pair. I would add Bridge It Jo to the negatives as well. My Problem here is that I would have gone with Indian Ink but She is a Non Runner. The obvious "Non Ascot" runner is favourite HOPE N CHARITY. I suppose she is entitled to be the selection but I would have prefered a horse thats ran twice. Six of the last 8 winners had ran twice before and that troubles me about the favourite. Perhaps the vulnerability in HOPE N CHARITY will result in a win for SATULAGI who was one of my negatives. Her experience will count for a lot today.

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The 3.00 and 3.35 at Newmarket are always small field tactical affairs that muddle up trends and Angles and I cant see any edge in either race. You can rest assured that if there were any factors that had to be reported in the race I would have said so. The 4.05 has a couple of small biases.

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Newmarket 4.05 - 3/1 Sir Orpen, 9/2 Danetime Lord, Rapsgate, 5/1 Brunelleschi, 9/1 Princess Cleo, 12/1 Savernake Blue, Titian Saga, 14/1 Crafty Fox, 16/1 Welcome Releaf

The Angles suggest a recent run is a Big advantage. Ideally within 15 days. This is also a race where lightweights have done especially well. its a race for unexposed horses that havent had more than 13 starts before and its a race where the winners hadnt been tested in listed or Group Class before. The Ideal profile would be WELCOME RELIEF the outsider based on those 4 factors. Never as simple as that though. BRUNELLESCHI also came out well. One mystery is how DANETIME LORD wll get on. He passes 3 of the 4 ideal factors you would want in the winner of this race. The only one he hasnt got is a recent run. The Mystery about him is that he has been Gelded since his last run. Withstanding the doubt about whether Kevin Ryan has him at his best today you dont really know how the Gelding Operation will affect him. Some horses have to after affects at all and can race quickly afterwards and without effect. Others like Rio Riva has showed recently need a race or two to get used to the operation. DANETIME LORD's chance is impossible to predict today I feel . I would have to be very
Interested in SIR ORPEN the favourite. I love the fact he runs within a week of his last run. He has a really fit profile. Ideally you would have prefered less weight but thats not a deal breaker for me. After winning his maiden he has been highly tried in 0-85 and 0-100 class on his last 2 starts. This is a 0-77 and It wouldnt surprise me if SIR ORPEN proved up to it. I would side with SIR ORPEN or BRUNELESCHI who ran "Ok" last night. The 1 day absence may be an advantage and its interesting Ladbrokes have him short at 5/1 when he is 7/1 in several places. The rank outsider Welcome Releaf has a squeak as well.

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Newmarket 4.35 - 9/4 Bosset, 9/2 Famcred, Fantastisch, 11/2 Kelucia, 7/1 My Lovely Lady, 8/1 Magic Peak, 10/1 Kaveri, 14/1 Spring Goddess,

May have to overrule the stats. They are telling me that I have to have an unexposed horse that had Less than 20 starts and less than 4 starts this year . They are telling me I must have a 3 or 4 year old and they also suggest you want a horse that hasnt been tried in Class 2 handicaps or higher. IN other words Lightly raced improvers. I havent a problem in them pointing to several" wrong type" like My Lovely Lady 7/1, Kaveri, 10/1 and Spring Goddess 14/1. The stats point to the winner being the unexposed types like BOSSET , FAMCRED and FANTASTICH . Personally I am very drawn to KELUCIA. She is a 5 year old, she is too exposed and has the completely wrong profile but to run 2nd just 3 days ago in a 0-95 Class 2 Handicap and to come out just 3 days later facing 0-85 rivals is a very interesting profile. She could be the fittest and classiest horse in the race and that could easily trump any stats based on past winners. I am very drawn to the chance of KELUCIA at 5/1

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Newmarket 5.10 - 5/1 Kareeb, 6/1 Joy And Pain, Torquemada, 8/1 Barons Spy, Vindication, 9/1 Dispol Isle, For Life, Lincolneurocruiser, 12/1 Musicmaestroplease, Poker Player, Smile For Us, 16/1 Warden Warren, 25/1 Ballare, Commander Wish, St Ivian, 33/1 Life´s A Whirl, Middle Eastern, 50/1 Tantien,

Absolute "Must" stats in the Apprentice Race at 5.10 are these. You cant have a 3 year old as they have a miserable record. You must have at least 9 career starts. You must have won a race before. You also want at least 3 races this season. Those would be my "Must haves". This leaves a shortlist of 10 horses and thats far to much. I would rule out the horses that had been off the track longer than a month as well and I would rule out the Fillies as well. This gets us down to 6 possibles. You could rule out "Last time out winners" as they have a poor record as to jockeys that dont claim an allowance. This leaves a shortlist of these -

6/1 Joy And Pain -8/1 Vindication-9/1 Lincolneurocruiser-12/1 Poker Player-25/1 St Ivian . You may want to add morning gamble BARONS SPY as he is excelent statistically and the only thing he fails is the fact he isnt ridden by a claimer. The money could talk though and does make him worthy of respect.

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NEWCASTLE

Thought this was a rough Card. The CHIPCASE Stakes (2.10) has been upgraded from Listed to Group 3 a few years ago and there are not many clear trends at all. In feel the weakest runners statistically are Celtic Mill and Mecca's Mate. They would be the stats negatives. I feel like adding Beckernet and Royal Millenium to that list. I feel the winner has to come from FAYR JAG , PHILHARMONIC and MASTA PLASTA. That analysis wont be winning any awards though.

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The 2.45 was a loathsome sprint. My weak links have to be ALGHARB 11/2 (One race this year) and INGLEBY ARCH 12/1 (3 year olds are poor). I would also add Woodcote to that list. I fancied INTER VISION last time. He is ready to win but not sure he can win in this grade. He looks a tad outclassed. I did think carefully about INDIAN TRAIL. I think he has a massive chance at 7/2. His Wokingham form looks Good. The Wokingham has produced the winner of this race twice before. He was badly hampered at Ascot. He looks well handicapped. I can see he has a superb chance today. What would worry
me is that Dandy may want this horse to win the Stewards Cup at Goodwood. Would winning this race Kill INDIAN TRAIL's chance of winning the Stewards Cup ? I dont think you can underestimate these things. After all Dandy Nicholls is 1-14 in this race and the only time he won the race it was Undeterred in 2001. Winning this in 2001 May have cose Undeterred the 2001 Stewards Cup. He was raised 5lbs at Goodwood to a career high mark and was beaten by 2 Necks in the Stewards Cup. Dandy will know that and have an intimate knowledge of such things. That would worry me but it is the only thing
that would worry me about INDIAN TRAIL who otherwise looks a massive runner thats about to deliver. I just fear Dandy may want him to deliver at Goodwood.

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I thought the Northumberland Plate and the 3.55 Handicaps were too hard and a waste of study time. In the 3.55 race I notice that DORIC 16/1 is running again and has been well backed in the offices at big prices from 20/1 to 16/1. This is what I wrote in yesterdays message before DORIC was 7th at Newcastle-" DORIC is entered up several times in the next couple of days in easier races and I wouldnt be surprised if he was to win one of these after todays race gets him race fit. He has a chance but I feel he may win over the weekend over a more suitable trip and a short absence from the track." TODAY He gets the chance to see if I called him right and the Office Money for him must be significant.

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The Maiden at 4.25 should finally go to DOWLLEH but I wouldnt be sure. Channon has won this race with an experienced horse before but Mark Johnstone who runs the unraced CHAMPERY 6/1 won last years racewith an unraced horse and I have Newcastle down as a place Johnston does well with unraced 2 year olds. Paul Blockleys horse OUR GRACIOUS ME has also been backed . The DOWLEH Form Figures of 2-2-2 are interesting. Horses that go into June and July maidens for 2 year olds with a 2-2-2 profile have a 42% strike rate but that record is reflected in DOWLLEH's price and the more I look at the race the moore I feel he isnt great value. CHAMPERY may be good enough at 5/1 to win first time out (The dams only other foal won first time out) so may OUR GRACIOUS ME so I would be a little worried about these unraced horses if I backed the favourite.

****

LINGFIELD 7.30 was potentially interesting and I fancy DEIRA 5/1.

7/2 Fratt´n Park, Whistleupthewind, 4/1 Imperial Lucky, 6/1 Deira, 10/1 Lisfannon, 11/1 Laqataat, 14/1 Whisper Inthe Wind, 16/1 Ciccone, 20/1 Korikancha, Lady Georgette, 25/1 Royal Tavira Girl, 33/1 Miss Redactive

I think the likes of favourite FRATTN PARK may be too exposed. She certainly is from a statistical viewpoint. The paper 3rd favourite (Imperial Lucky) is a Non runner. The 5th favourite LISFANNON lacks both size and scope and may want softer ground. CICCONE doesnt look ready to win yet. LAQATAAT hasnt run well on her last 2 starts. I just feel this race is set up for WHISTLEUPTHEWIND and DEIRA DEIRA has been nicely placed in a 0-68 handicap against her own sex and own age group. DEIRA has just come from a Better race at Goodwood over a Mile against Male horses. The Video was interesting. She hit the front. Looked the winner and was going really well but the last furlong caught her out and she faded into 5th place. I am not sure whether she stayed the mile last time or went too early. Either way this 7f trip looks perfect as does the drop in Class . All 4 past winners of this race had 3+ runs this year as she has done. From the past 4 winners we also had 2 Topweights winning suggesting that Class can be a factor here. I fancy DEIRA to improve past most of this field but I doubt she will give 16lbs to WHISTLEUPTHEWIND who is my best bet of the day.WHISTLEUPTHEWIND was really impressive on video last time. The race she won was only a 0-64 handicap. It was weaker than DEIRA's handicap but she won it very well and she gets a massive 16lbs in weight from the Topweight and that could be crucial. She is improving and would have won last time with a lot more weight. The 6th and 7th have come out and won from her last race. At 4/1 she looks a tremendous each way bet. You can tell she is well handicapped as when she ran in a Catterick maiden she came 4th , yet was rated by far the lowest horse in the race.I cant see 3 horses beating her today.

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