No Bet Today

Beverley looks dreadful. Some far better supporting cards tomorrow. I think with Goodwood and the 7mm of Rain overnight and mixed weather forecast its a day to watch and see how track and ground rides. I think Doctor Scott will win the 4.25 and I also like Prince Of Light each way in the 3.15 at Goodwood. We will know far better tomorrow what Goodwood and the ground are offering. In terms of my Best Bet of the day I would have to go with Prince of Light each way at 10/1. It is a pretty rough opening day.

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Talking Points

TRIALS 'N' TRIBS lost yesterday as the Only horse I fancied on the day. Didnt run that well. Looked quite weak to me in the betting just before the race and a little ominous. Not suggesting anything untoward . Possibly I overestimated her. I didnt make her an account bet as I cant read Charlie Cyzers stable at all and you are better off not going in Heavy with their runners . I did like her chance. She didnt deliver though.

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Todays Racing

The Opening race at Goodwood at 2.05pm is a 9f Handicap. It is also a Messy race statistically and with 18 runners a race I would think safer to ovelook. I have looked at the stats in this race and havent come up with anything I feel is very significant. I "expect" that the winner will be a Male horse from the top half of the weights but that doesnt help us greatly.


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GOODWOOD 2.40 - 11/8 Linas Selection, 11/4 Sixties Icon, 6/1 Luberon, 9/1 Savannah, 12/1 Hazeymm, Jadalee, 25/1 Classic Punch.

The Gordon Stakes (2.40) isnt really a race that offers strong stats. This is probably down to the fact the race is always a small field and rarely a true guide. It doesnt really matter where you came from or what type of horse you have. As an example the last 5 winners included 2 that came from Maidens, one that came from a Handicap , one from a Group 1 race and another from a conditions event. I Cant see a statistical edge and with just 7 runners and no each way options it looks a race that I wouldnt want to get heavily involved with and one I cant help you with. The Hot favourite is LINAS SELECTION 11/8 who has won his last 3 races. Obviously has a great chance. Wouldnt be one I would tip as he is a short price. He was clearly strongly fancied when winning last time but he wasnt over impressive and he did have a hard race and at 11/8 you dont need many things that can go wrong. He looks a typical Mark Johnston runner though. His Market Danger SIXTIES ICON is the only other runner under 10/1 in the betting. What I dont like about him is the 39 day absence and the fact his trainer describes him as a "stuffy" horse. His long term target is the St Leger in 5 weeks time. Jeremy Noseda says he needs to run twice before then to get fit enough and that doesnt sould like a horse thats going to be at peak fitness to me today. No more than Guesswork but it would trouble me and I wouldnt want to take on the favourite with a half baked pick or a half fit horse and I want to swerve the race.

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GOODWOOD 3.15

3:15 Betfair Cup (Registered As The Lennox Stakes) (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) - 7f

9/4 Iffraaj, 5/2 Jeremy, 11/2 Nayyir, 7/1 Prince Of Light, 8/1 Etlaala, 20/1 Jedburgh, Mac Love, Quito, Suggestive, 33/1 Assertive.

SELECTION - PRINCE OF LIGHT 10/1 Each Way

10 Runners and 5 of these look to be serious runners. Just a 6 year History to this race and it isnt easy to know what the important issues are but the race has a nice frame to it and some Value exists. Godolphin's IFFRAAJ is an interesting favourite and deserevs to be on his last run in the Group 1 July Cup. The Racing Post say that " IFFRAAJ was a touch unlucky in the July Cup last time and likely to be better served by return to 7f. " Hard to disagree with that. We all saw him running on very late and he perhaps should have won the July Cup. The issue for me is how that has taken out of him. The July Cup horses that ran in this race did not run well over the years. There were not very many of them (which is why Iffraaj is not a negative) but Kheleyf (2004) and Millenium Dragon (2002) both came here and flopped whe favourite having come from the July Cup. I am probably erring on the over cautious side but its a small doubt in the back of my mind. I would best describe IFRAAJ as a Horse I dont want to make a selection, but a Horse I cant offer you much against. The Stats do say that horses aged 6 or more like Nayyir, Quito and Suggestive should be opposed. I am going to do that. I had a look at all Group Races in July and August and did some research into How many horses aged 8 or more win Group races during this time. There were not many . In fact what you find is that they score very well in the Long Distance Group races about 2 miles but look at races below 13 furlongs and they very rarely win. There are 3 in this race increasing the chance than one of them may "Pop up" but I wouldnt have a problem with taking the older runners on. I am going to oppose NAYYIR 11/2 , QUITO 20/1 and SUGGESTIVE 20/1 and thats despite the fact that NAYYIR won this race in 2002 and 2003. Pricewise have selected NAYYIR and I can understand why but I prefer My Selection. I dont think NAYYIR is the same horse as he was and Gerard Butler is on record as saying the same thing. Those 3 horses are all pretty exposed and this has been a race for lighter raced horses. In fact horses with 13 or more starts had a weak 1-42 record and those with 21 or more starts drew a blank and were 0-15. This does put me off the older runners Nayyir, Quito and Suggestive but it also puts me off Mac Love 20/1 and Jedbergh 20/1 who has ran 26 times before and is a Horse that has never raced in Group 1 or Group 2 class before and every past winner of this race had done that.

JEREMY is the Market Danger but he wouldnt be for me . To be honest I havent that much against him to be honest. He just leaves me a bit Numb and doesnt excite me as a selection or a negative. He won the Jeresey stakes just as Observatory did before winning this in 2000. He looks to have a sound chance but I just dont think at his price he offers anything and he does leave me a bit cold . Its probably not that significant that he is another horse that has also never ran in G1 or G2 Class before but every past winner did. Go back a year when JEREMY was trying to win maidens PRINCE OF LIGHT had already won a Group 3 and was only 4/1 to win the Group 1 Middle Park stakes. He failed to win that race but there may have been confusion about just what the horses best trip was. It was unclear whether PRINCE OF LIGHT was a sprinter or a Miler or a 7f horse. They were struggling to find his best trip last year and they may well have found it. This may well be his optimum trip.

PRINCE OF LIGHT looks value to me at 10/1. He started the year in a Listed race at Windsor and came second. That wasnt a Bad run at all. First of all the time of the race broke the Track Record. Secondly he was carrying a Group 3 penalty and he also lost a shoe at Windsor and returned "sore" . The horse that beat him (Librettist) won a French Group 3 race on his next start. He then won a Conditions race at Chester and was impressive that day. That Chester race was interestingly the same Chester race that FATH won 5 years ago before winning this race. He doesnt have to carry his Group 3 penalty in this race. He is not that far behind the best of these and now he may have stumbled upon his best trip I think he has a serious chance today each way at 10/1.

I also like ETLAALA at 10/1 and I would want him on my side. The Racing Post say he has gone 10 races in Group company without winning but none were on his favoured fast ground and best trip of 7 furlongs and he gets both today. He wouldnt be a horse that you would be sure would run his race and reliability wouldnt be his biggest weapon but if ETLAALA wins this I wont be at all surprised. One Option for me was going with PRINCE OF LIGHT and saving on ETLAALA but I think given the frame of the race I prefer to go with PRINCE OF LIGHT Each Way at 7/1. He has a bit to prove with IFFRAAJ and you can see why IFFRAAJ is favourite but I do think I might have the better preperation and I like the 3 places available.

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GOODWOOD 3.50 -Betfair Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (2yo) 5f

7/2 Bahama Mama, 11/2 Dazed And Amazed, 6/1 Enticing, 13/2 Wi Dud, 7/1 Cav Okay, 9/1 Narrjoo, 11/1 King Of Swords, 14/1 Scented Present, Siren´s Gift, Winning Spirit, 20/1 Racing Stripes, 25/1 Gold Spirit, 33/1 Fast Freddie.

The Molecomb Stakes is rich in History. There are many characteristics that most if not all past winners have had and it is these characteristics that I want to

stay with in order to shortlist the likely winner. This is a 5f Group 3 race for 2 year olds. The first thing I want to do is to oppose the "inexperienced" and oppose the "exposed" as by far the most winners had between 2 and 6 previous races. Certainly the last 13 winners had between 2 and 6 previous races.The most inexperience runner is WI DUD 13/2. I am going to oppose this horse. We did have horses win in 1991 and 1992 with just one previous race but every horse since then has been beaten and I dont see much class in the pedigree and he has to defy a 46 day absence and few have done that. I also want to take on SCENTED PRESENT 14/1 who has already had 8 starts . No Molecomb winner was so exposed. I cant have FAST FREDDIE as no Maiden has
ever won the Molecomb.

If there is going to be a Huge Shock then maybe KING OF SWORDS who is freely available at 40/1 may be the one. I am going to make him a Negative as he comes from a 6f race but he is a Big Price and I wont be surprised if he wins this. I do need to highlight the winner though and I Dont think he will win the race but he is good value. The Molecomb winner rarely ever drops in trip from a 6 furlongs race to win . Only once in the last 20 years has it happened before and that was in 1997 and this may be quite interesting. The only horse that successfully managed it was Lady Alexander who won the Anglessy Stakes at the Curragh in 1997 and she was trained by Irish trainer Con Collins. It may be significant that KING OF SWORDS is also trained by Con Collins and has the same prep run in the Anglesy stakes at the Curragh. Con Collins also won the Molecomb in 1995 with Almaty and knows exactly what it takes to win this race. I would want to keep KING OF SWORDS on my side because of this but I am happy to take on the other horses that drop in trip from a 6f race. The other Trip Droppers I want to oppose are DAZED AND AMAZED 10/1 and NARRJOO 14/1 who both come from the 6 furlong TNT July Stakes at Newmarket . Horses coming from the July Stakes dont score well in this race. I want to oppose WINNING SPIRIT. You have to go back 14 years for the last horse to win this coming from a Maiden . WINNING SPIRIT has only won his maiden after 3 attempts and has been a beaten favourite 3 times before finally
winning. Any horse that can fail 3 times in Maiden company is unlikely to win the Molecomb.

One of he best Prep races is the Wetherbys Super Sprint at Newbury. The 1998 , 2001 , 2002 and 2004 winner came from the Newbury Super Sprint. Today we have CAV OKAY 7/1 and GOLD SPIRIT 25/1 coming from that race as well as the already rejected Scented Present. I am going to Oppose this pair despite their coming from the best trial race. CAV OKAY has already tried and failed in Group 2 class and no horse that had been tried in Group 2 class before has won . CAV OKAY could bolt in but he has not looked progressive to me and has had too many excuses. Richard Hannon does sometimes leave me with the feeling he can overcook his juveniles although solely my opinion and I dont like the stable record in the race.Richard Hannon did win this in 1993 with Risky but that year Hannon had 2 of the only 3 fancied runners in a tiny field and could hardly help but win the race. His 18 other runners have been beaten in the race and I think its far too speculative to trust CAV OKAY to suddenly bounce back and win. I am happy to take on SIRENS'S GIFT. She has not looked thisclass to me and she is held by Enticing.

The Fillies ENTICING and BAHAMA MAMA looks strongly favoured in the Betting and Both look statistically sound. I fancied BAHAMA MAMA in the Dragon Stakes and she won well and that Sandown race has produced the 1994 and 2000 winners of this race. ENTICING looked classy at Wolverhampton and she is hard to Judge. Traditionally Fillies are favoured in this race but since a Subtle rule change in 2002 when the Sex Allowance was reduced from 5lbs to 3lbs colts have had the best record. I am going with a Filly this year though. I cant see a Colt I like better than ENTICING or BAHAMA MAMA. I feel one of these horses will win the race. I wouldnt rule out ENTICING at all but BAHAMA MAMA does have a bit more experience and comes from a solid trial race. At 11/4 and 100/30 I have to admit I dont feel Bathed in Value and I will Leave it up to you whether you think there is enough margin for a saver in the race. Gun to my head and I marginally prefer BAHAMA MAMA over ENTICING. If the thought of 2 short priced fillies leaves you a bit Cold and you are more of a 33/1 punter then a couple of quid at 40/1 on King Of Swords may be the alternative.

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Goodwood 4.25 - Tatler Summer Season Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105) 1m6f

7/2 Wunderwood, 5/1 Doctor Scott, Soulacroix, 6/1 Nobelix, 11/1 Castle Howard, Swordsman, Top Seed, 12/1 Kerashan, Lets Roll, Michabo, Solent, 14/1 Nawamees.

Staying Handicap with a 9 Year History. What strikes me about the 9 past winners was that they were all Horses aged 3-4-5 that had ran less than 21 times before. They were unexposed and open to improvement and thats where I would concentrate looking for the best profile. If you look at horses that had ran 21 or more times before they had a 0-39 record in this race. Thats quite a poor record for experienced horses. When you also consider that horses aged 6 or more have a 0-27 record it clearly shows that lighter raced and younger horses have had things their own way. This is why I am opposing WUNDERWOOD the favourite as well as TOP SEED 11/1 , LETS ROLL 11/1 and NAWAMEES 14/1 who all look the wrong types to me.

I personally think 3 year olds may well be favoured. There have only been 2 that ran in the last 5 years. One of these Won (Scott's View) and another flopped as the ground went against him. Both were trained by Mark Johnston who has also won the 2002, 2003 and 2005 renewals. We have had a couple of 3 year old winners and the 13lbs weight for age they get looks to favour them. DOCTOR SCOTT is the only 3 year old runner today and he looks highly interesting off bottomweight especially as DOCTOR SCOTT is a half brother to Scott's View who won this in 2002.

You have to have Massive respect for SOULACROIX form Luca Cumain's stable. The one thing that worries me about him is the fact he has had just one race this year that was 45 days ago. In the history of this race all 9 winners ran within the last month and they all had at least and usually 4 starts that season. That said SOULACROIX is a decent horse. He cost 90k for his owner who wants to win the Melbourne Cup with him and the stable won this race in 2004. I think you have a lot of horses in this race like SOULACROIX that you have to question the fitness of. Statistically KERASHAN 12/1 , CASTLE HOWARD 11/1 and SWORDSMAN 11/1 are all quite likely to be short of fitness to win this race. If you demand that your horse has a race fit profile like all past winners then you come down to 4 Runners that have the Strongest Possible Profiles

Doctor Scott 5/1 - Nobelix 6/1 -Solent 12/1 -Michabo 12/1

DOCTOR SCOTT has recently sickened me and I need a Rant and a Squark about that.

I made him a great bet at Hamilton in a weak handicap (July 14th ) when he was a 5/4 favourite and he gets beaten by Bronze Dancer. Then he goes and wins so well at Sandown last time in a far better race you cant believe how he lost at Hamilton. To all the Members who backed DOCTOR SCOTT at Hamilton when was beaten I will tell you what happened that day. I didnt get the analysis wrong. Sandown proves I had it right. What you had at Hamilton was a horse that should have won but I dont personally believe he was trained to win. Had he won at Hamilton , and then at Sandown then he would have been raised in the weights by the handicapper and that would have hurt his chance in this race. He gets weight for age in this race but had he won at Hamilton
that advantage would have been compromised. Goodwood in August means so much more to Mark Johnstone than Hamilton in July. I think Johnston would not have hurt DOCTOR SCOTT's chance of winning this race and that would have happened had he won at Hamilton and now we get here I think we can see the whole picture. Sometimes you can see these things. Sometimes you cant. I said the same thing last Friday when Luca Cumani ran his Ebor favourite GLISTENING at Ascot. Short price favourite that Lost . Winning that would kill his chance in the Ebor and sometimes you have to know what horses targets are 2 -3 races ahead to stop you betting Non Triers. Its easy to Think of it like a Snooker Break builder who is thinking 3 shots ahead with his
positioning. Dont bore me with all the silly corruption trials and Audit trails. Thats the Fantasy part of the game thats easy to manage. This is the Real Danger in betting and tipping race horses. Your money at Hamilton was never going to get a fair crack of the whip. I didnt make him an account bet and that was because he was a short priced favourite and I feel that if you avoid the short priced ones you have some sort of chance of coping with the Non triers and coming out ahead. I dont think he was trained to win at Hamilton. Just my opinion. The Horse that beat him at Hamilton would have no chance in this race today. He would only be allowed here as a flaming Mascot and not a runner. Tipsters who tipped GLISTENING last Friday failed to understand the
danger of doing that and did their money. I was a Hero that day and I saved you money through a Brilliant piece of analysis. However On July 14th I got it wrong and failed to understand that his True target was 3 weeks later and Not on July 14th. Sometimes you need the Wisdom of Soloman to see these things. I think we were robbed at Hamilton. Anyway thats my Squark over and done with. In terms of DOCTOR SCOTT's chance today I love it. I think this has been his long term target for a very long time. I think his fitness gives him a great advantage over several runners that have been off the track for a few weeks and DOCTOR SCOTT has to be the selection. My Dangers are the statistically strong NOBELIX and Michabo and Solent are also flawless profile wise.


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GOODWOOD 5.35 - 9/2 Joseph Henry, 13/2 Dry Ice, 8/1 Illustrious Blue, Irony, 10/1 High Bray, Tempsford Flyer, 12/1 Ordnance Row, 14/1 Wahoo Sam, 16/1 Binanti, Desert Dreamer, Lago D´Orta, Shot To Fame, 20/1 Glencalvie, Press The Button, Trans Sonic, 25/1 Boundless Prospect, Diktatorial, Guest Connections, In On The Act, Serieux.

I Think a High Draw is a strong advantage in this race but you will find the worst drawn horses tend to be the bigger priced runners and the draw has been factored into their price. Plectrum winning in 2005 threw a lot of the best stats out of the window for this race winning after just 3 previous runs and showing that you can win this when inexperienced. I think in trying to find a shortlist I would try and take in as many of the following stats as Possible. I would want to avoid the Lowest Drawn Horses. I wouldnt want a horse thats only had 1 or 2 runs that season as that hasnt been done before. I think I would have to oppose the 3 year olds as well. Might be dangerous as there are such a lot of them but a 0-44 record does suggest that at the very least they are a long way from favoured and probably face a tough task in winning this race. Go back to 1995 and the Full record of 3 year olds in this race is 3 8 9 13 14 5 11 14 18 2 9 10 14 15 16 19 3 11 12 5 8 9 8 17 5 7 8 17 4 5 7 8 10 11 2 8 14 13 5 and 18 and you can see how few of those got placed. My Final stat is the need for a horse that carries over 9st as every winner since 1997 has done that and the record of horses with less weight than that are just 1-67 and may lack the class to win. The winner should come from one of the following 6 horses if the above trends all work out.

9/2 Joseph Henry
13/2 Dry Ice
8/1 Irony
10/1 High Bray
16/1 Desert Dreamer
20/1 Glencalvie

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