Account Bet

WINDSOR 3.00

(9) GRIMES GLORY 5/1

£100 Win


5/1 Bet365 - Totesport -Totalbet -Sportingbet 9/2 Blue Sq

Be careful with GRIMES GLORY as the 3 market leaders all begin with the letter G and I nearly backed the wrong one by mistake earlier. Going with another bet today. I think this is only down to 2-3 runners and GRIMES GLORY has a good draw and should have too much for his rivals. Possibly should have gone each way but I think 5/1 is value and I think a win bet is best. I was tempted by Reem Al Fallah each way in the maiden at Pontefract but I want to keep away from maiden races and GRIMES GLORY is worth a bet. Anything 4/1 or over looks generous to me.

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Today's Racing


PONTEFRACT 2.20 - 2:20 toteplacepot Nursery (Class 5) (2yo,0-75) 1m4y

5/1 Fiumicino, 11/2 Fongs Gazelle, 6/1 Doubly Guest, 8/1 Angeletta, Foxxy, 12/1 Centenary, Diggs Lane, 14/1 Downbeat, Revisionist, 16/1 Flying Grey, 20/1 Deccan Express, Dee Cee Elle, 33/1 Hair Of The Dog, Muncaster Castle, 50/1 Firestorm, Salto Chico, Slavonic Lake.


CONCLUSION- A race with 5 outstanding prospects. DIGGS LANE 10/1 is interesting as is Doubly Guest, Downbeat , Flying Grey and Dee Cee Elle

This Nursery Handicap has a 20 year History which is rich in stats but stats that have changed over the years. In the late 1980's it was a race where High weights dominated but in the 1990's and 2000's that certainly hasnt been the case. I think we have some angles in this race. Refering to the issue of Weight , its quite illuminating how badly the High Weighted Horses have done since 1990. If you take horses that had 9st 1lbs or more since 1990 they have a dreadful 2-90 record. Horses with 9st 3lbs or more a similarly poor 1-58 record . The Market is dominated by Topweights yet we know they struggle. I certainly couldnt have the favourite and highest weighted horse FIUMICINO 5/1 . I dont want FOXXY 12/1 either with 9st 6lbs. I dont think he will stay. If you remember I made FOXXY a big negative last time out as he raced over a Mile and his Sires Juveniles had a 0-80 record at 8f trips. I dont think his sire's juveniles stay a mile in a horse box. At Ayr last time out I was against Foxxy yet he won at an 8f trip but I think he was ridiculously lucky as there was a small field and they went far too fast at the front. All the front runners died. The time was very slow and I think he just benefitted from horses going off too fast and having nothing left. I think this 8f trip will sort him out in a big way. Pontefract is 2 seconds longer to run than Ayr is and this is a much bigger field. I dont think FOXXY 12/1 will stay this far and I dont think he will be placed either. CENTENARY 9st 4lbs has a bigger weight than is acceptable as does ANGELETTA 8/1 and I couldnt bet any of these fancied horses. EXPOSURE is another key trend here.In terms of Exposure and How many races are "Ideal" in preperation for this race I find it quite compelling that in the last 10 renewals of this race 9 of these horses had raced just 3 or 4 times before. I see horses with 3-4 runs significantly better than any others in this race. Since 1996 horses that had raced 5 or more times before had a 1-91 record and recent history shows a clear bias exists to the lighter raced horses. I think you have to consider FONGS GAZELLE 11/2 too exposed with a big weight as well and many others are in the same boat. Ideally you want the Following. You want a horse with 3-4 starts thats professionally ridden with less than 9st 3lbs and that had a run within the last month. 9 of the last 10 winners of this race had all those attributes and if you look at the last 10 years and al those runners that had those atributes that started under 16/1 you find 9 winners from just 27 runners and a £52 Level stakes profit. The ideal SHORTLIST are these -

10/1 Doubly Guest
10/1 Diggs Lane
12/1 Downbeat
22/1 Flying Grey
22/1 Dee Cee Elle

Which of the 5 horses comes out the best isnt clear. Good recent form is quite important as 16 of the past 20 winners managed to finish in the 1st-2nd-3rd or 4th on their latest start. This suggests the winner will come from DIGGS LANE 10/1 , DOUBLY GUEST 10/1 or FLYING GREY 22/1 but I also respect John Dunlops DOWNBEAT and Dunlop has won a couple of late season nurserys here over this trip. Another big runner is DIGGS LANE 10/1. He has had the ideal 4 runs and has been well backed this morning in the offices.His trainer Neville Callaghan has an excellent Nursery record in October (10-42 since 2000) and he was very unlucky last time meeting a lot of trouble and being by Gallileo 8f on soft ground should be up his street. He looks well handicapped.

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PONTEFRACT 2.50 - 2:50 toteexacta Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70) 1m2f6y

4/1 Cantabilly, 6/1 Sudden Impulse, 7/1 Dium Mac, 10/1 Bollin Dolly, Contemplation, Height Of Fury, 12/1 Ruby Legend, 14/1 Asaateel, Hawkit, Tidy, 16/1 Dante´s Diamond, 20/1 Generator, Im Spartacus, Miss Pebbles, Stolen Glance, 25/1 Trans Sonic, 33/1 Mayadeen, My Obsession.

CONCLUSION - History is full of shocks in this race and I am not surprised as my shortlist is not safe and still has 8 shortlisted on it.

Not a great ammount to go on and severe warnings from History as the last few winners of this race were 16/1 16/1 12/1 14/1 33/1 11/1 12/1 50/1. This is a race thats often provided big shocks. All 15 favourites were beaten and only 1 second favourite managed to win this race. Form seems pretty irrelevant. It doesnt matter at all how you ran last time out. What little we do know is this. We know that horses that drop in trip have a miserable record. Horses that came from beyond 10f last time out had a poor 1-63 record which counts against I'm Spartacus. I think you want a horse thats run with the last month as those that did not had a 1-58 record. This is a problem for HIGHT OF FURY 10/1as well as outsiders Dante´s Diamond 16/1 , Miss Pebbles 20/1, Generator 20/1 and My Obsession 33/1. We know that none of the past winners came from a maiden as Bollin Dolly 10/1 tries to do. Thats about as far as we can go. That is not good enough as there are still 11 horses left. There is a statistic that states that horses that had between 13 and 20 career starts are 0-55. I interpret this as probably the fact that horses with less than 13 runs still have scope and improvement and havent been hammered by the handicapper. Horses that had more than 20 runs have had time to get caught by the handicapper and the time to drop down the weights again whereas the 13-20 runners could have been accurately assessed by the handicapper. That theory is a massive clutch of a straw but in a race thats made a mokery of form study in the past we may as well look at alternative angles. The Ideal runners are these - Sadly there are 8 of them. With such a ferocious History behind the race I am bailing out.

Sudden Impulse 6/1 Dium Mac 7/1 -Contemplation 10/1 -Ruby Legend 12/1 -Hawkit 14/1 -Tidy 14/1 -Asaateel 14/1 -Stolen Glance 20/1

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Pontefract 3.20 - 3:20 totequadpot Handicap (Class 4) (3yo+,0-85) 5f

5/1 Sir Nod, 6/1 Geojimali, Kay Two, 8/1 Oranmore Castle, 10/1 Bo McGinty, 12/1 Bond Boy, Raymond´s Pride, 14/1 After The Show, Highland Warrior, Rainbow Rising, 16/1 Matty Tun, Shes Minnie, 20/1 Charlie Delta, Malapropism, Sea Salt, 33/1 Crimson Silk, Enchantment, Peopleton Brook.

Conclusion - If there is an angle here it may be a recent run and only KAY TWO 11/2 , CHARLIE DELTA 33/1 and PEOPLETON BROOK 25/1 have that.

Experience is very important so its frustrating to see so few inexperienced horses we can rule out here . I would try and take out the 3 year olds as only one has won since 1995 and he was particularly well handicapped that day. As ever though in 5f sprints Fitness is the most important factor. I want a horse that has run within the last 20 days. This is after all a 5f sprint. You have to ignore the fact that last years winner didnt have a recent run as he was a horse rated 78 (Reverence) who was the best handicapped horse in the country that day as he has since improved so much he has won a Group 1 race so we now know he was thrown in last year. Take him out and the previous 7 winners all had a recent run within as did 13 of the last 14 winners. The interesting factor about this race is that only KAY TWO 11/2 , CHARLIE DELTA 33/1 and PEOPLETON BROOK 25/1 have raced within the last 3 weeks and they have all ran within the last 10 days and that may well count for plenty.

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Pontefract 3.50 - 3:50 totesport.com Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) 1m4y

7/4 Champlain, 7/2 Sweet Lilly, 4/1 Empire Day, Fishforcompliments, 8/1 Zafonical Storm, 16/1 Farleigh House, 25/1 Bid For Glory, Dream Lodge, 100/1 New Beginning.

CONCLUSION - The best statisical runner is EMPIRE DAY 11/4

The market usually gets this race right. All 13 past winners started under 6/1 and were in the first 3 in the Market. It is not the most clear cut race in the world. It is a Juvenile listed race over 8 furlongs. This race and one at Ascot are the only listed races for juveniles at a Mile. That totals 24 races and its interesting to me that only 1 of those 24 winners had ran 7 or more times before and I have to wonder whether 7 runs is getting too exposed for juveniles racing in Listed class. Today SWEET LILLY 7/2 has ran 7 times before and ZAFONICAL STORM 8/1 has ran 8 times before. Both of these are worryingly overraced. Another interesting factor is that none of these listed winners had ran in Group 1 or Group 2 company before. Its always best to take an improving horse rather than a "failed group 2 horse" and the horses that could be vulnerable on that side of things are CHAMPLAIN 100/30 , SWEET LILLY 7/2 , FISHFORCOMPLIMENTS 4/1,and ZAFONICAL STORM 12/1. If the stats are correct in that you want a horse with fewer than 7 runs that has never raced in Group 1 or Group 2 company
before then you are left with the once raced EMPIRE DAY 4/1 from Mark Johnston's stable. I am not the biggest fan of "Once raced" horses but Mark Johnston does have a 3-9 record in this race and did win it with a once raced horse last year. He has won well on his debut (runner up won next time out) and he is a big runner.

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PONTEFRACT 4.20 - 4:20 totesport 0800 221 221 Bluff Cove Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-75) 2m1f216y

4/1 Thewhirlingdervish, 5/1 Esprit De Corps, 6/1 Mister Arjay, 13/2 Dan´s Heir, Kayf Aramis, 8/1 Great As Gold, 12/1 Grasp, Halland, 14/1 Great Tidings, 16/1 Calfraz, Rare Coincidence, Totally Scottish.

CONCLUSION - I think ESPRIT DE CORPS 9/2 is the most likely winner

One of our trademark 2m 2m Pontefract staying races. Well they used to be our trademark and we havent done badly in them but to be honest the trends in these races over the last 2 years have not been good and have changed a great deal and I no longer see any strong angles in these Marathon Pontefract angles. The old bias to lightweights have been blown out of the water recently as have all the Age and Fitness stats and I now longer these races as strong stat races on this track. GREAT AS GOLD 10/1 was a winner for us when winning one of these in April. In fact he was the first account bet this season when winning here at 11/2. He is not for me as he does not have the profile of a Fit Horse. TOTALLY SCOTTISH is getting a bit too long in the tooth for this and none of the famous Pontefract staying races went to a 10 year old. I dont think CALFRAZ will stay on his pedigree. I feel the same about DAN'S HEIR 10/1. Only 1 other horses produced from his sire stayed longer than 12 furlongs and this trip is too long to be confident he will last home and the trainer may have jumping ambitions for him. You can give KAYF ARAMIS a chance and yes he has improved a lot over the years but in last years race he carried 2 stone less and was a well beaten 40/1 chance. MISTER ARJAY is vulnerable to improvers. THEWHIRLINGDERVISH has a chance but reproducing his last run wont be easy and I think Mark Prescott can take this with ESPRIT DE CORPS 9/2 an improving 4 year old. He is well bred and these conditions could be the making of him.

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PONTEFRACT 4.50 - 3/1 News Of The Day, 7/2 Giant Slalom, 9/2 Our Blessing, 5/1 Grethel, 6/1 Captain Nemo, 10/1 Falcon´s Fire, 16/1 Meathop, 20/1 The Dandy Fox, 50/1 Moondine, Soylent Green.

CONCLUSION - I have a feeling an unraced horse may win this

This is a 2 year old race where Colts and Fillies are awarded weight to carry. They have all been bought at the Sales called "The Breeze up" and there are allowances for the cheaper horses. Horses that cost less get to carry less weight. Fillies tend to be sold far cheaper than colts and this results in them getting better allowances than the Colts. There is a Bias to Fillies here in my opinion. Many of the races that went to colts were in years where there were few or no fancied female runners. The fillies in this race are NEWS OF THE DAY 3/1 , GRETHEL 5/1 as well as The Dandy Fox 20/1 and Soylent Green 50/1. What troubles me most about NEWS OF THE DAY is that from the 13 renewals since 1999 horses that had just the 1 race that season had a 0-33 record. I would ideally want a well raced horse. OUR BLESSING fits the bill but his chance is not clear on paper. I wouldnt rule out an unraced horse like GIANT SLAMOM 7/2 much as he is a colt and his trainer (W Haggas) won this with an unraced horse in 1999. Unraced horses score well and with the market speaking in their favour one of the unraced pair GIANT SLAMON or FALCON'S FIRE may win this first time out.

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PONTEFRACT 5.20 - 5/2 Flores Sea, 100/30 Lusolly, 7/2 Reem Al Fallah, 11/2 Multitude, 10/1 Hanbrin Bhoy, 14/1 Snow Dancer, Telling, 25/1 Silly Gilly, 33/1 Chicamia, 50/1 Dream On Dreamers.

CONCLUSION - REEM AL FALLAH 4/1 is a solid each way bet.

Division 2 of the 4.50 race and the same trends apply. The oppurtunity to bet a Well raced Filly like REEM AL FALLAH 4/1 each way is something not to pass up. She has had 5 career starts and has 0-80 Handicap form. I much prefer that to the once raced FLORES SEA 5/2 and as I said in the 4.50 preview from the 13 renewals since 1999 horses that had just the 1 race that season had a 0-33 record. That would also worry me about HANBRIN BHOY 10/1. With favourite FLORES SEA his stables record in 2 year old maidens in October is just 1-46 and that winner had 2 runs several years ago and it was not in an Auction race. I like and respect MULTITUDE 5/1 as well but I think the best bet is an each way bet on REEM AL FALLAH 4/1.

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WINDSOR 3.00 - 3:00 John Nash Lifetime In Racing Selling Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 1m67y

9/2 Global Traffic, 11/2 Gifted Heir, 13/2 Emergency Services, Grimes Glory, 7/1 Fighting Mood, Readyforone, 8/1 Distant Flash, 20/1 Daring You, Last Dog Standing, Rowan Venture, 33/1 Garrya, King Of Magic, Saxenberg, 50/1 Break ´N´ Dish.

CONCLUSION - GRIMES GLORY 5/1 is a confident bet with a better draw than Gifted Heir

This is a 2 year old seller over a Mile. Hidden form and not easy to deal with but I have to Oppose EMERGENCY SERVICES as Idont think his sire gets milers when they are juveniles. His sire (Foxhound) has a 1-82 record with 2 year olds at a Mile or more and the only winner was very lucky to win in my opinion. I see him as a non stayer. I find it quite interesting that my selection GRIMES GLORY 6/1 is in a match bet on Betfair with Emergency Services my main negative and that looks one of the best match bets I have seen in a while. I dont fancy particularly fancy FIGHTING MOOD 8/1 either as I consider him a little "underraced" and lacking in experience with just 2 starts. I would hope I could beat him with experience. READYFORONE 16/1 has a long absence to overcome and has to move from 6f to 8f and the history of 8f sellers show that neither defying long absences or moving up radically in trip are easy things to do and he is quite weak in the market and understandably so. DISTANT FLASH 8/1 won recently for her previous trainer (M Wallace) but the form was rubbish .Every horse she beat that day came out and got well beaten in week selling and claiming grades and she has since ran badly for her new stable. I dont think she has much scope. I like GLOBAL TRAFFIC "on paper" with a 3 day absence and a strong stable but He is no good thing. He was "running on" last time at Warwick and will want this Mile but he has not been that impressive watching him on video and I dont like the way he has been running much. I have to make GLOBAL TRAFFIC in the top 3 fancies for the race because of his profile but He does look a little tricky and complicated . One horse that I cold well have made a selection had it not been for his draw is GIFTED HEIR 7/1 and I can see him running a massive race today if that Draw in stall 1 is not a problem. It is generally felt that high draws are best here though and they have been in the 4 renewals of this race. You also have the Ground to consider with GIFTED HEIR. Not sure just how soft it will be but he has not ran on it before and his sire has so far got a poor strike rate away from fast ground. I have to like GRIMES GLORY. He is now beginning to show improvement. He has a good draw. I am happy he gets the trip well enough and I dont worry about the ground for him.I like the way he and 2 other horses pulled clear of the 4th last time in a selling handicap. 3 of the last 4 winners of this race came from a handicap and he is well raced and up to winning a low grade race like this. I can see him always being up at the front and holding his field at bay and at 6/1 he looks value to me.

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WINDSOR 5.00 - 7/2 Forces Sweetheart, Word Perfect, 7/1 Chinalea, Linda Green, 10/1 Cesar Manrique, Morse, 14/1 Chatshow, Exmoor, 16/1 Caustic Wit, 20/1 Polliwilline, 25/1 Auwitesweetheart, His Master´s Voice, Rydal Mount, 33/1 Patavium Prince, 50/1 Kensington,

CONCLUSION - I think EXMOOR 12/1 is good value in a race with a vulnerable favourite.

This race is slightly complicated statistically as some years there have been 2 divisions and its fluctuated from a 0-60 to a 0-75. From 12 renewals we have not had a 3 year old winner yet. Remarkably all 84 of these lost which is a real issue for favourite FORCES SWEETHEART 7/2 . To be fair a couple were beaten in photos but a 0-84 record is not Good and as FORCES SWEETHEART 7/2 Comes from a 3 year old only handicap and carries a panalty (all 5 horses that did that lost) I would have to take her on with Topweight and with a Claimer on board as claiming jockeys are 1-61 in this race. FORCES SWEETHEART has been a credit to her trainer winning her last 5 runs but she is now 30lbs higher in the handicap and I want to oppose her. Other 3 year olds that may struggle include

Polliwilline 20/1, His Master´s Voice 25/1, Rydal Mount 25/1 and Patavium Prince 33/1. I would ignore horses that had less than 13 career starts. They are 0-68 in this race and there are a few outsiders this rules out. You also want a horse with 6 or more runs this year. Horses that had less had a 1-59 record and I would see horses like MORSE 10/1 lacking in race fitness. You also want a horse with at least 2 career wins. Those that hadnt managed that had a 0-94 record. The last statistic that may be relevant is that every winner carried at least 9st in weight. All 52 that didnt lost. I think you can give WORD PERFECT 100/30 a solid chance and I expect she should reverese the form with FORCES SWEETHEART from Leicester form a couple of weeks ago. CHINALEA comes out quite well statistically as does CHATSHOW who will run well but the one runner that sails through every trend is Roger Charlton's EXMOOR 12/1. He is undoubtedly well handicapped. Some of his runs you would be a bit sceptical about but others are more than good enough to win this race and at 12/1 when welldrawn from a powerful stable he has to be value if the blinkers help to wake him up. I think EXMOOR 12/1 is good value in a race with a vulnerable favourite.

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