Today's Message is quite good and I think its gone as far as it can in highlighting relevant issues. There are
many days especially early season where you can only take a race so far but the avenues run out before you can get to a confident bet and today is one of those days. I have looked at 10 races today and in the back of my mind in every one was which horse in which race would make the best account bet. The closest I came to a Full bet was OLYMPIAN ODYSSEY Each way at 9/2 in the Feilden Stakes (Newmarket 3.45) but this is a race I cant really judge him or his opposition properly. I am making him my Best Bet of the Day but not a Full bet.I think this horse will probably be my only personal bet on the day. No Full Account bet though.

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Talking Points

* Wednesday's Summary

Yesterdays Headline selection SCOTTYS FUTURE hacked up at 8/1 and that was very pleasant. I hope as many people as possible backed the horse. Certainly not a horse to follow now. He owes us nothing and thats what we are likely to get if we carry on betting him. The saver didnt run so he carried the days business on his own in great style.

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NON STAKED RACES


Ripon 2.10 - E B F Sharow Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 5f

5/4 Fractured Foxy, 5/1 Joseph Locke, 8/1 Kerry´s Dream, 10/1 Kaladar, Mr Klick, 14/1 Baileys Hilight, Josr´s Magic, 16/1 Abdu, 20/1 Disco Queen, Micky Mac

History of this race shows that there is no real advantage in having had a run . 3 of the last 5 winners were unraced so I would not be going overboard about the experienced horses just because they have had a run. With the favourite FRACTURED FOXY 7/4 - I obviously respect her and she appeared to run well on her soft ground debut. She isnt for me though. She was a 16/1 chance last time which didnt suggest she was that fancied. Her dam has produced 4 foals and they all turned out to be fast ground horses and I wonder of she will turn out to be the same. Despite a good run on soft ground last time I think the ground is a big question mark on her mothers record and she was hardly expensive. I am not saying she wont win but she hasnt done enough for me to bet at a short price in a race I know unraced horses are not disadvantaged in. In terms of stable Kevin Ryans record is poor with debutants so KALADAR is not easy to fancy first time out. Ryan is 0-5 at this track and any Maiden wins he had came in Auction maidens rather than these maidens. I Think Tim Easterbys record is very interesting and perhaps the most significant of all trainers in this race. He runs the filly KERRYS DREAM(8/1-14/1). Easterby scores very well with his unraced fillies in maiden races (5-26) compared to his unraced Colts (0-28). He likes to win early with the Fillies and the unraced ones he seneds to Ripon have a 2-7 record and he has won this race before. Trainer-wise KERRYS DREAM has to be a positive. BAILEYS HILIGHT's stable have won this race twice before in 1997 and 1999.

* I would be looking to bet something against the favourite and go for value
* On Paper the most interesting runner for me is KERRYS DREAM but she looks weak drifting from 8/1 to 14/1 on Betfair
* The market will hopefully guide you later far better than I can at this stage of the day but I am looking to oppose this favourite.

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Ripon 2:45- Copt Hewick Handicap (Class 4) (3yo,0-85) 6f

9/2 Mango Music, 7/1 Rochdale, 8/1 Bentong, 10/1 Antica, North Walk, Surely Truly, The History Man, 12/1 Pauvic, Suits Me, 14/1 Ryedale Ovation, The Thrifty Bear, 16/1 Littledodayno, Ochre Bay, 20/1 Making Music, 25/1 Bucharest, Soto, Twindego

Obviously an Open looking . 3 Year old Handicap I dont want to spend much time on especially as its not got a lot of history. The "Types" I think I want to reject are these.a) Middle Draws - b) Once raced this season -c) Exposed horses with 11 or more starts

One key stat is the dismal record of horses that raced 11 or more times before. When you consider 11 horses started 9/1 or shorter , 2 were beaten favs, and the vast majority of the placed horses had also ran less than 9 times before (Every placed horse had since 2000) then it looks a key angle. Therefore I am ruling out the exposed runners with 11 or more starts.

I am also ruling out "once raced" horses this season which includes the favourite MANGO MUSIC. The record of horses that had just 1 race is weak and much as it doesnt always seem easy to understand. Man horses do go backwards after their seasonal debuts . I cant have MANGO MUSIC anyway. I think she would prefer better ground. Mick Channon hasnt won with a horse as inexperienced as this horse and he scoers badly with his sprinters (1-30 at this trip) and his Ripon runners (0-14). I also want to rule out "middle drawn horses".

We have a clear idea about the draw here. I am happy to have anything but a Middle Draw. Why would you want a middle drawn horse when all the high and low numbers have rails to run against. I am ruling out RYEDALE OVATION and MAKING MUSIC due to Tim Easterbys poor record in 3 year old handicaps (explained later in the message). I am against The History Man as Mick Easterby is 0-49 with 3 year old handicappers on their debuts. Other dreadful records come from The Thrifty Bear, Ochre Bay and Others. The best 2 statistical runners in the race are ROCHDALE and SURELY TRULY who were coincidentally 1st and 4th in a Ripon Nursery last year in August. ROCHDALE is clearly a massive runner on a track his stable excels on and as a half brother to top sprinter Ration the breeding offers encouragement. I couldnt bet anything else but this pair and the selection is ROCHDALE 9/2

1) ROCHDALE 6/1
2) SURELY TRULY 9/1

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Ripon 3:20 - Ripon Silver Bowl Conditions Stakes (Class 3) (4yo+) 1m1f170y

11/10 Blue Monday, 5/2 Grand Passion, 11/2 Chrysander, 10/1 Traytonic, 12/1 Lord Mayor, 25/1 Mudawin, Profit´s Reality

What I like about BLUE MONDAY 4/5 is that Roger Charltion nominated this specific race as his long term target several months ago and he will want to win it. BLUE MONDAY is a high class horse that won the Cambridgeshire last October on his last start. He faces a serious danger in GRAND PASSION who has been running very well on the sand coming 2nd in the Winter Derby after winning the Winter Derby Trial. There are no statistics available that consider whether the likes of GRAND PASSION have a serious fitness edge or whether the lighter raced horses like BLUE MONDAY are favoured so it isnt easy to split these runners. The race conditions certainly favour BLUE MONDAY as he escapes a Penalty whilst GRAND PASSION picks up a 7lbs
penalty for a race he won 16 months ago. That penalty could tilt he balance in BLUE MONDAY's favour. I think CHRYSANDER has a lot to prove after a dismal run in the Lincoln. I cant have him. The lack of penalty makes BLUE MONDAY the likely winner for me but at 4/5 he is far too short when you have Roger Charlton saying he isnt certain to be 100% fit, and you have a horse that hasnt ran in 201 days taking on a horse in Grand Passion thats very fit from the sand. I do like BLUE MONDAY but 4/5 is not a price that would entice me in and I would rather bet GRAND PASSION at 9/2 out of spite than take the odds on about the favourite. If they bet 7/4 and 9/4 then I would be 100% behind the favourite at 7/4 but at 4/5 and 9/2 Grand Passion is the value much as I hate the stable and really wanted to be seduced by a sexy looking favourite.

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Ripon 3:55 - Ripon "Cock O' The North" Handicap (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 1m

4/1 Nawaqees, 5/1 Kinsya, 6/1 Jaad, Zaharath Al Bustan, 8/1 Chris Corsa, Coalpark, Hill Of Almhuim, 10/1 Crosby Vision, Damelza, 14/1 Top Jaro,

On first glance there doesnt appear (looking at the betting) a stand out horse that appears really strongly fancied in the market, and every runner is 16/1 or under suggesting this is quite competetive. There are Several runners in this race with just 2 career starts going into a Handicap. There is no problem with that, as this race has three times been won by similar horses with 2 starts. The Bad record comes from horses with 3 starts like CROSBY VISION who come here via maiden races. I certainly Dont want to be with CROSBY VISION 16/1 as I question his stamina. He is out of a sprinter and neither Sire nor Dam have yet got a miler winning from their offspring. I cant have ZAHARATH AL BUSTAN 8/1 . Not only would he be the first "maiden" to win this race, I also think he is bred for faster ground, I hate the record of Mick Channons 3 year old handicaps in April on their debut and at Ripon where all 14 he sent here lost. The Topweight DAMELZA is easy to oppose. Tim Easterbys 3 year old handicappers are dreadful on their debut (2-80) and at this trip (0-24) and at this track (1-38). TOP JARO doesnt look like he is Good enough. HILL OF ALMHUIM is a fast ground bred horse and that would worry me on todays ground as his sire hasnt sired a soft ground horse yet. Mark Johnston runs 2 interesting horses that have both ran twice in JAAD 6/1 and COALPARK 8/1.

Obvioulsy JAAD looks the Number 1 from the stable and has to be respected. JAAD 6/1 for me wont want soft ground and I would be worried if the rains got into the ground. The racing post say he is proven on soft ground but I dont know where they get that from .His Sire was a fast ground horse and none of his offspring have yet won on genuine soft ground. The 3 interesting runners are NAWAQUEES , CHRIS CORSA and KINSYA.
Initially I was happy to take on Mark Tompkins KINSYA 5/1 based on stable record. Mark Tompkins 3 year old handicappers in April are 0-8 at Ripon and are quite weak on their debuts but in a race where there are so many negatives I wouldnt be that confident about making him a negative especially as his stable tried and failed to land a big gamble in this race last year. Mark Tompkins has said he wants further than this trip which is a worry. CHRIS CORSA 12/1 is a danger if he returns to his best and his stable record is respected and they have won this race before but what shape he is in today isnt easy to predict. His stable are in Good form though. The other potential positive isNAWAQEES 11/2 who comes from a stable that won this race in 1996 and 1997. John Dunlop has a strong record with his 3yo handicappers at Ripon at this time of year (5-22). His Nursery form bears close inspection. He handles the ground and must be a big runner much as he is a little weak in the betting. I think the best profile comes from NAWAQEES.

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Ripon 4:30 - Skelton Maiden Stakes (Div I) (Class 5) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Angel Voices, Conkering, 5/1 Forroger, 7/1 Baileys Polka, 10/1 Baltic Princess, 25/1 Delamead, English Archer, Lady Georgette, Mister Pete, 33/1 Dzhani, 100/1 Master Malarkey, Rainbow Prince,

There have 23 been similar races to this at Ripon at this time of year and 22 of the 23 races went to horses that started in the first 4 of the betting so you dont get many shocks here. Statistically there are no great angles that you would use to rule out certain runners. I am far from certain about the favourite ANGEL VOICES 2/1 . She is a Karl Burke Maiden. The trainer doesnt have a great record with his 3 year olds in maiden races, but what worries me more about this horse is that horses like her that are stepping up from 6f to a Mile have a 0-23 record in this race. I dont really want to bet a Filly, from a yard thats not prolific at a short price trying to do something none of the previous 23 winners of this race have done before. That said she is well regarded and Karl Burke is on record as saying she will win a maiden early and hopefully may progress to listed Class. I am not too impressed with the record of James Givens 3 year olds like BAILEYS POLKA . The yard are 0-14 at Ripon and their fillies dont score that well against the Male horses and I would have to put
the trainer angle on this horse as a negative. I havent a major problem with Mark Johnstons BALTIC PRINCESS but she does look the sort to be better at middle distances later in the year.

I think the chance of this favourite will be determined by which of her main rivals will be a) Fit and b) Able to handle soft ground. Predicting that will not be easy. CONKERKING 3/1 is impossible to rate accurately. I wouldnt know about the ground on pedigree, I wouldnt know about the Fanshaw runners being in form or not but traditionally his record in similar races is "good but nothing special". FORROGER 9/2 is also hard to read from a stable with a pretty Inconclusive record. He will act on the going but the stable look to be struggling a little. I Cant give you aa horse that looks Fit fancied and will love the ground. I do see Vulnerability in this favourite but just what strength in depth against here is very unclear.

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Ripon 5:05 - Skelton Maiden Stakes (Div II) (Class 5) (3yo) 1m

2/1 Peppertree Lane, 3/1 Font, O´Tara, 4/1 Fire Two, 9/1 Soldiers Romance, 33/1 Mister Jingles, Prince Egor, Prophet Preacher, 50/1 Little Lily Morgan, 100/1 Distant Mind, Orpen´s Astaire

Division 2 of the Maiden race at 4.30. All we know really is that fancied horses domiante and this race looks to contain just 5 horses with a realistic chance of victory. In the previous Division Mark Johnston runs a Peintre Celebre filly (Baltic Princess) and he runs another here in favourite PEPPERTREE LANE. Johnston has a great 7-19 record with his 3 year old bred form this sire but all have won at distances of 9f or more. Those that ran at 8f all got beaten and this included the Royal Ascot winner Fantastic Love in this race in 2003. That just makes me a little wary of PEPPERTREE LANE but other than that I dont find him easy to judge. There are 2 horses weak in the betting today. SOLDIERS FORTUNE is out to 16/1 and I dont fancy him from Tim Easterbys stable. Easterby's runners that have raced just once before perform dreadfully all year (2-82) and are 0-53 before June. FIRE TWO is also weak drifting from 4/1 out to 12/1. I thought FIRE TOO 12/1 had an excellent chance if wound up for his debut but the drift would look worrying. If you follow the market there are clearly 2 very well backed horses in FONT 5/2 and O'TATA 5/2.

FONT has been working with Conkerking who runs in the 4.30 race so watch his run for a decent guide to expectations today. He looks a middle distance type and will want further than this trip. He may get away with the trip today but the Dams 2 other foals were modest and I dont like that. O'TARA 5/2 comes from a stable that only excel with their maidens at 12f trips. They are poor around this trip and a 1-38 seasonal debut record in April doesnt offer much encouragement for O'TARA Much as his trainer says he is a " nice horse that will like the ground".

In terms of a slection I would have preferd to go with FIRE TWO had he shown he was steady in the market and not drifting like a Barge. I am happy to take on Peppertree Lane (ideally with something each way) but there are factors against the profiles of FONT and O'TARA I dont really like . In the end I am going to "ignore" the market and select FIRE TWO To win at 12/1. I am going to assume his market weakness is much to do with the the Racing Post say he may not handle the ground. I think thats rubbish and unfair based on one run last year. The Dam ran well on soft ground, his Half Brother placed on Heavy ground and the Sire Placed on soft ground and has sire many mudlark winners. I think FIRE TWO will be fine on the ground and at 12/1 I am giving him the benefit of the doubt much as the market is suggesting there are better fancied runners in the race.

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Ripon 5:35 - Newby Apprentice Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+,0-70) 5f

5/2 Mynd, 8/1 Dorn Dancer, Gone´N´Dunnett, 10/1 Angelofthenorth, Blackheath, Unlimited, 14/1 Diamond Katie, George The Best, Majik, Percy Douglas, Trick Cyclist, 20/1 Marshallspark, Rancho Cucamonga, 25/1 Catch The Cat, Desertina, Our Little Secret, 33/1 Harrington Bates, Legal Set, 66/1 Bennanabaa, 100/1 Grasslandik

Too Time consuming for a big preview. This race has been run 12 times before and MYND 5/2 has won the previous 2 renewals. All 12 winners had 3 things in common and I think the shortlist should be built around those 3 things. The 3 Angles are these. 1) Seasonal debutants have a 0-57 record. 2) Horses that did not run within 31 days had a 0-83 record and 3) All 12 winners had run at the dsiatnce before. I also want to stay with a Male horse as they won 11 of the 12 renewals and fillies had a weak 1-40 record. The Runners that fit all 4 demands are these

5/2 Mynd,
8/1 Gone´N´Dunnett
14/1 George The Best
14/1 Percy Douglas
40/1Trick Cyclist

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Newmarket 1.30 - Federation of Bloodstock Agents Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 6f

11/8 Mr Sandicliffe, 3/1 Music By Mozart, 4/1 Starlight Gazer, 7/1 Pititana, 10/1 Arzaag, 20/1 Diktatorship, 25/1 Pearly Wey,

Cant have too strong an opinion here but I would think that you can be hopefull of getting MR SANDICLIFFE Beaten. He is 0-6 so far and has been beaten 4 times when favourite and 3 times when odds on. The Only stat that applies in this race is that from 12 previous renewals only 1 Horse (Bonus 2003) had ran 3 or more times before in his career before winning this race and he was a Group 3 winner. MR SANDICLIFFE may well turn out to be too exposed for a race like this much as the stats only suggest this without being utterly convincing. However It is a race thats gone to lightweighted horses in the past and I would consider looking at lighter raced runners for a selection. It may be best to trust Peter Chapple-Hyam and MUSIC BY MOTZART who appears well fancied and from a stable in great form and a horse that looks the clear danger in the betting.

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Newmarket 2:35 - Exning Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

9/2 Trafalgar Bay, 13/2 Adeje Park, 8/1 Blushing Thief, 10/1 Didn´t We, High Curragh, Louie Louie, Qusoor, 14/1 Angus Newz, Hogmaneigh, Puskas, Sleeping Storm, 20/1 Calypso King, Categorical, Grimes Faith, Ingleby Arch, Scarlet Knight, Violent Velocity,

These are the strong requirements for this race

a) Avoid horses coming from a Handicap
What you dont appear to want here is a horse coming from a Handicap. What you need is a horse thats lightly raced , that hasnt had a chance to be assesed accurately yet that can improve past his handicap mark. There hasnt been a winner of this race that came through the handicap route since 1998. In fact since then all 58 horses that came here from a handicap were beaten. Overall the record of "handicappers" in this race is very poor (3-112) which included 6 beaten favourites.

b) Avoid Horses with 1 race this season
52 horses came into this race with 1 race that season and only 1 won. This race is usually a race that trainers have a "long term plan" to win and invariably they come here on their seasonal debut.

c) Avoid Horses already tested in Class 2 or higher
12 of the 13 winners had not ran in Class 2 or higher races. They were unexposed and hear to peak and not failed horses in better class. There have been 74 horses that ran in this race already tested in Listed Class and only 1 managed to win.

The problem is there are no horses that sail through all 3 stats except the 25/1 chance Hogmaneigh who is from a stable that dont excel in conditions like this and a horse that wants rain. So it takes a horse that has passed at least 2 of the stats in the race and there are far too many to choose from. You can obviously fancy TRAFALGAR BAY 5/1 with Dettori in the saddle but I also qite like HIGH CURRAGH a horse Kevin Ryan has highlighted as working well and one you should follow. There are also a couple of interesting lightweights that have been impressing on the sand and will be very fit in DIDNT WE 8/1 and BLUSHING THIEF 11/1. It does look open and in the absence of a statistically perfect runner it may just be a bit too hard.

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Newmarket 3:45 - Connaught Access Flooring Feilden Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m1f

11/4 Atlantic Waves, 7/2 Judge, Olympian Odyssey, 5/1 Dont Dili Dali, 6/1 Morghim, 12/1 Salt Man, 20/1 Rajeem, Silver Blue,

The Biggest trend in this race is that experienced horses usually Fail. Since 1992 The record of horses with 5 or more career starts is poor and all 24 have been beaten. You have to go back to 1991 for the last winner. Having the need for less than 5 career starts certainly makes DONT DILI DALI look hideoulsy exposed with 14 previous races much as she is improving. No Filly has won the Fielden in the last 14 years though so I Have to oppose her today. She has also ran this year when 12 of the last 13 winners were seasonal debutants. ATLANTIC WAVES has been laid out for this race by Mark Johnston and thats a Good sign. Looked great on his 2 year old debut. Then dissapointed at Salisbury but he would have ran in Group 1's last year had it not been for a Foot abcess. JUDGE will run well but the stables horses are looking like they need a run. MORGHIM May just find this too much. I think the best option here is to bet Barry Hills's OLYMPIAN ODYSSEY 5/1 each way. He has always been well regarded by Hills and Barry Hills won this race in 1999 and has also had 2 runners beaten in photo finishes. The stable are in form and he is a decent price and the right type for the race and in the Guineas the Dante and the Derby. At 5/1 each way he would be one of my better bets of the day.

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