Going to keep off the account today as My Best Bet has been compromised by Heavy Rain at Hamilton (14mm) and now
wont win the race. The rain has killed by Bet. Aside from that I love the Hamilton Card. I think you should pay very close attention to Inchduaig in the 2.50 at 7/1. I am in a position where I cant really advise a Bet on this horse but I will be betting him myself. I love the 3.25 at Hamilton. I think Dispol Veleta will win the race and he is a confident bet. I am not sure about the best saver in the race and will personally be saving on Hansomelle. Dispol Veleta is a generous price at 7/2 and I think
he is the best bet of the day. At Ascot I have a few opinions. Wouldnt want to identify a stand out Best bet at the meeting today but reasonably happy with Ascots analysis. My Biggest bets are at Hamilton today and I feel I have got the 2.50 and certainly 3.25 races right. My Best Bet at Ascot runs tomorrow. There are also 2 Cyprus advice's today.

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Wednesdays Cyprus Bets

Ascot 4.25 - Hinterland
Ascot 4.55 - Roxan

Two horses today from Stu in Cyprus and his message is Copied below.

I can report the following two hefty bets for Ascot on Wednesday.

The first runs in the Royal Hunt Cup at 4.25 and is No. 9 Hinterland. We have laid £10,000 Each Way at 12/1.
The second runs in the Queen Mary at 4.55 and is No. 8 Roxan, we have laid £40,000 Win at 9/4.

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Talking Points

* Yesterdays Summary

The Thirsk Bet on Border Music never looked like winning and spolit a Good day as it was my days "best". We had the Banker Aamaaq winning though and overall Good results at Ascot. I think that was a solid first day opening. HELLVELYN won the Coventry stakes at 4/1. La Cucaracha ran well but was drawn on the wrong side. Decado let us down in the St James Place but AD VALOREM Won the Queen Anne stakes at 8/1 carrying on the good run of 4 year olds in the race.

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ASCOT

Ascot 2:35 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo) 7f

3/1 Secret World, 100/30 Levera, 9/2 Jeremy, 11/2 Asset, 9/1 Red Clubs, 10/1 Racer Forever, 20/1 Kingsgate Prince, 22/1 Saville Road, 25/1 Assertive, 33/1 Cousteau, Mednaya, 40/1 Manston, 100/1 Rydal Mount, 200/1 Proud Killer

Selection - JEREMY each way

I Could only bet JEREMY in this race by default as I have solid reasons why the others wont win. The Jersey is a race renowned for huge shocks. Winners since 1992 have won at 10/1 10/1 20/1 50/1 33/1 20/1 20/1. There have been some winners over the years that you wouldnt have picked with 10 attempts. The Angles that I thought were particularly relevant in the Jersey Stakes are these -

* Horses that have raced once that year struggle and only have a 1 from 53 record going back to 1990
* All 40 fillies since 1991 lost
* Horses that failed to finish 1-2-3-4 last time out are just 1-72 since 1990
* All 21 horses that came from a Maiden lost since 1986
* No Horse has carried a Group 3 penalty (Red Clubs has this ) in 30 years

The Only horses that pass these stats are JEREMY 9/2, LEVERA 100/30, RACE FOREVER 10/1 and KINGSGATE PRINCE 20/1.

Horses that have raced Once this year (1-53) should be opposed in my opinion. The only horse to have won this with just 1 race was Observatory in 2000 and he was a top class horse that went on and won two Group 1 races shortly afterwards. This is the big dilemma about favourite SECRET WORLD 3/1. He won the Wood Ditton stakes . He is highly regarded but he makes the Jump from Maiden Class to a Group 3 race. In the Jersey stakes Only 1 horse came here with just one race and he lost. Obviously not a great sample size. What I have done is Looked at Every 3 year old that ran at Royal Ascot in Group Class before with just one career start to see just how they get on . The results were not great. There have been 23 horses trying to do what SECRET WORLD tries to do today and Only one won. That was when Spanish Sun won the Ribblesdale a few years ago. I have no option but to make SECRET WORLD a negative despite bullish comments from the stable. RED CLUBS has the infamous Group 3 penalty that never gets overcome and that kicks him out of the equation for me. I dont want KINGSGATE PRINCE coming from Epsom. Its a horrible prep track for many Ascot races and all 20 that came from Epsom in this race lost. That also applies to RACE FOREVER who made the shortlist. Gosden has always said he thought he was a sprinter. He did win a Listed race at 7f last time out at Epsom but this is a far stiffer 7f in my opinion and I think there could be a stamina doubt and what worries me is if RACE FOREVER is held up to get the trip he could have traffic problems in this big field. What would worry me about ASSET is the fact that all 18 horses that came here from the 2000 Guineas lost. This included 3 favourites and it doesnt appear the right path to take. The winner of the Jersey should therefore be one of JEREMY or LEVERA and I have to side with JEREMY . His main rival JEREMY is interesting. His trainer is bleeting that he is worried about the ground being fast. I cant see that as a problem. The Dam and Sire were both fast ground horses and every one of the dams offspring won on fast ground and I see it as a positive. That said 38 horses came into the Jersey upgrading from a 3 year old handicap and only 1 managed to win (Just James 2003) and that is worrying. JEREMY's Listed race win stands him in a much better context for a Jersey
winner and I think Stoute has the Jersey winner as he has the ideal profile for the rac. If there is a semi shock then Race Forever 14/1 or Kingsgate Prince 33/1 both look big prices on Betfair to me but JEREMY is the selection each way at 9/2.

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Ascot 3:10 - Windsor Forest Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m

5/4 Soviet Song, 5/2 Echelon, 10/1 Shapira, 14/1 Astronomia, Luas Line, Violet Park, 20/1 Chantilly Beauty, Royal Alchemist, Zayn Zen, 25/1 Bon Nuit

Selection - ECHELON Each Way 11/4

SOVIET SONG may be vulnerable and I am going with ECHELON Each way at 11/4. Not the greatest value in the world but I dont want to bet the favourite and I cant make my mind up about several others and ECHELON should after all at least manage a place in a race where its 16/1 Bar 2 runners. There have only been 2 renewals of this "new" race and both were won by Michael Stoute 4 year olds. Stoute runs ECHELON the main danger to SOVIET SONG. Obvioulsy pretty hard to split them. SOVIET SONGS Ascot record (including York last year) is 2-2-3 in Three different races. Last year SOVIET SONG was 3rd in this race beaten 3.5 lengths. That however was her seasonal debut. Today she has already had a run which she always benefits from. Last year she also had a Group 1 penalty . This
year she doesnt so you can rate SOVIET SONG significantly suited to todays race than she was last year. ECHELON has never ran at the Royal Meeting before. What worries me about SOVIET SONG is the fact she is now a 6 year old and must be past her best. I also see it as a sign of connections knowing this as they run her in the Group 2 race today rather than the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. That tells me they think she could have lost some of her speed. I was very tempted to side with the each way price on horses like Shapira, Astronomia or Luas Line but I dont know much about these. The German horse SHAPIRA may want softer ground. ASTRONOMIA could be the one and I am not worried about Godolphins form as I think there is a big difference from those that havent had a race and those like ASTRONOMIA who have run but I dont like the fact she comes from a Handicap. LUAS LINE is a mystery to me but a Group 1 penalty is a worry. I have to give ECHELON the benefit of the doubt as I think SOVIET SONG is at the point where she has to be regressing and whilst I am not confident that ECHELON will win the race I think she has to go close and does have a good chance.

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Ascot 3:50 - Prince of Wales's Stakes (Group 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m2f

6/4 David Junior, 5/2 Electrocutionist, 13/2 Ouija Board, 8/1 Manduro, 10/1 Notnowcato, 20/1 Ace, Corre Caminos

Selection - ELECTROCUTIONIST

The Prince of Wales's Stakes Is worthless statistically and I wouldnt pull anything significant out from the trends. It isnt easy to see past the Market leaders but which one to choose isnt easy to be confident about . I couldnt have OUIJA BOARD 13/2 at this distance. Very few 12f winners come and win the Prince Of Wales as thay are outspeeded by specialist 10f horses. She has lost all 3 times she ran at 10f in Group races and clearly needs further. I Cant have ACE 20/1 either. He is 0/10 in Group 1 class and looks out of his depth. There is no oppurtunity to split DAVID JUNIOR or ELECTROCUTIONIST statistically. Both last ran 3 months ago in Dubai and both look massive runners. Both are Group 1 winners at the distance. Much depends on how ELECTROCUTIONIST has been prepared during Godolphins Bad period. Simon Crisford has said yesterday that although ELECTROCUTIONIST is working well he has missed work and that may be crucial especially the way Proclamation ran yesterday from this stable. In what could be a tactical race I dont see how I can pick one over the other. I dont feel any clear reason can be given for splitting these horses. My gut feeling says that although ELECTROCUTIONIST may have had an interupted preperation, and may not be at his very best I would rather trust Godolphin to win this race than Brian Meehan. It is interesting that Godolphin are playing down expectations for their horse and are not bullish. The Vibes behind Brian Meehan's DAVID JUNIOR are very strong but he always talks up his horses as unbeatable and I think the comments of both connections have to be ignored .I just fancy ELECTROCUTIONIST to prove the "vibes" can be wrong .ELECTROCUTIONIST has never been unplaced in a 10 race career and will have been laid out for this race to improve a superb Godolphin record in this race. I am sure he was bought with the sole intention of winning this race and as he is Bigger price than the favourite I am going for ELECTROCUTIONIST.

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Ascot 4:25 - Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m

7/1 Pride Of Nation, 15/2 Another Bottle, 9/1 Pinpoint, 10/1 Hinterland, Minority Report, 14/1 Forgery, 16/1 Cesare, Stronghold, 20/1 Akona Matata, 22/1 Ace Of Hearts, 25/1 Mine, 33/1 Babodana, Dabbers Ridge, Dansili Dancer, Divine Gift, El Coto, Langford, Red Spell, Stagelight, 40/1 Blythe Knight, Bustan, Pentecost, Prince Of Thebes, Shot To Fame, Unshakable, 50/1 Capable Guest, Impeller, River Royale, Spanish Don, Tucker

Selection - MINORITY REPORT 11/1

Trying to narrow this down statistically. One group of horses that have terrible records are the high weights. Eliminate the 9st 7lbs and over horses and you should be very safe but its pretty clear that horses that carry over 9st also score very poorly. AGE would be my next port of call. I certainly want to stay with 4 and 5 year olds. The race has been dominated by 4 and 5 year olds. Horses older than 6 have not won this since 1969 and very few have placed in the last decade and thats a pretty hard stat to overcome and 6 year olds havent a great record either. You also want a horse that hasnt ran in Group 1 or Group 2 Class before. This just explains the need to have an "improving" horse rather than a "regressing" horse. One trend that does seem quite relevant is that you do not want a
horse that is dropping in distance. "Trip droppers" dropping in trip from 8.5f or more last time out have an appaling record . In fact the only winner (1997) looked to have been lucky and benefitted from a strong draw bias that year. I want a fancied horse so I am ruling out the 33/1 + horses . That could be a mistake but its the way to go for me. I think the winner should come from this shortlist.

7/1 Pride Of Nation - 15/2 Another Bottle - 9/1 Pinpoint -10/1 Minority Report -14/1 Forgery -16/1 Cesare

HINTERLAND doesnt make my shortlist but I have to respect the fact he is the "Cyprus" bet. I dont think he is the right profile myself but I said that before he won last time out at Epsom and I got that wrong and Michael Jarvis is a Group 1 trainer and one of the best in the game. HINTERLAND doesnt make my shortlist though. ANOTHER BOTTLE has been laid out for this race for several weeks . Roger Charlton is another genius and he will have prepared this horse to peak today but his draw (12) isnt great and he has reported to have had a setback overnight. Thehorse that stands out to me is MINORITY REPORT another laid out for the race. Luca Cumani's MINORITY REPORT is a 6 year old but I have ignored that as he didnt start racing until he was a 4 year old so it would be unfair
to pull him out on the age trends. MINORITY REPORT won the Thirsk Hunt Cup in a fast time and looks one of the more outstanding runners.

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Ascot 4:55 - Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) 5f

15/8 Roxan, 3/1 Gilded, 4/1 Simply Perfect, 12/1 Princess Iris, 14/1 Nina Blini, 16/1 Ripping, 20/1 Sunley Gift, 25/1 Hythe Bay, Slipasearcher, Tarkamara, 33/1 Christmas Tart, 40/1 Vital Statistics, 50/1 Feelin Foxy, Su Doku, 66/1 Sparkling Eyes

Selection - PRINCESS ISIS

The Queen Mary has been a Graveyard for experienced horses and I have to make GILDED 3/1 a Negative. If you look at horses that had already run 3 or more times before they had a very weak 2-91 record in the last 20 years. The winners were the brilliant 1000 Guineas winner Attraction and Risky many years ago. Its a very hard thing to do. I would be really quite surprised if something didnt improve past GILDED. You also want a horse that finished 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out. In the last 20 years of this race , only Gay Galanta (1994) was unplaced on her previous start and she turned out to be a Cheveley Park winner. That looks an important statistic. Gay Galanta lost on her debut in 1994 before winning this and she was the Only maiden to have won this race. The record of maidens in this race is just 1 winner from 64 that tried so I want a horse thats won a race before. SIMPLY PERFECT 4/1 is a maiden but she fails on that score. The Queen Mary has never been won by a horse that came from a 6f race before so I think that I need to take out all fillies dropping in trip. This suggests the winner of this years race is one of the following 4 horses.

15/8 Roxan -12/1 Princess Iris -14/1 Nina Blini -20/1 Sunley Gift

All 4 of these runners were foaled in March or earlier which is another crucial angle as is the fact they won a race after May this year as 13 of the last 14 winners have done. SUNLEY GIFT 20/1 is interesting. She is Mick Channons and he won this race in 1998, 2001 and 2005. In fact SUNLEY GIFT won the same Newbury Conditions race that Flashy Wings took before winning this race last year and the same race that Queen´s Logic won for Channon before taking this in 2001 and that looks significant to me. SUNLEY GIFT probably wont be good enough to win this though from her draw which puts me off. I should probably go with ROXAN who looked special at Beverley on her debut in the Hilary Needler but I am going to try and get some value against her. I do like ROXAN and I like her run last time. Both Dance Parade (1996) and Attraction (2003) won this race having won the Hilary Needler at Beverley as she did and there is no doubt ROXAN was mightly impressive winning that race on her first career start. What troubles me is how much that race took out of her. If you do a study on all Horses aged 2 that won a Listed race on their debuts and looked at how they faired on their next start you wont find a winner. All 7 that tried that lost. Thats not a the most compelling of stats but 4 were favourites and 3 were second favourites and I just wonder how much winning a Listed race "First time out" may knock the stuffing out of a horse. Clearly you have to be very good to win a listed race first time out so why did none win their next races ? Thats my worry about ROXAN and in
the back of my mind I am worried that if she was trained for Beverley she may not be easy to get to peak again today. The prices allow me to take a chance on a bigger priced runner and I am siding with PRINCESS IRIS each way. She is well regarded and drawn low and I think there is a chance she could get to the rail and gain an advanatge over the other fancied horses drawn wider. The only 4 horses drawn lower in the race are all rank outsiders. If she can get there you could have a horse thats got the best advantage and a lead and I think that makes her value at 12/1.

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Ascot 5:30 - Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo,0-110) 1m

6/1 Makderah, Red Evie, 13/2 La Mottie, 7/1 Song Of Passion, 10/1 Harvest Queen, Polished Gem, 14/1 Sharapova, Wasseema, 16/1 After You, Nyarhini, Shortest Day, 25/1 Illuminise, 33/1 Adeje Park, Expensive, 40/1 Jeanmaire, Psychic Star, Saabiq, Stage Flight, Sweet Afton, 50/1 Adventuress, 66/1 Ciao

A Rapid-fire elimination with stats based on past renewals. I do not want the Following -

a) Horses that raced just once this year as only 1 has managed to win in the long history of this race
b) I would also rule out horses that had ran in Group Class Before . They have a pretty poor 1-52 record.
c) Horses trading at 20/1 and over as there has never been a shock in this race before,
d) Horses with just 4 career starts as none have won.

This leaves 5 "perfect" candidates in a Race that would be a criminal waste of time to spend more time on.

6/1 Makderah
6/1 Red Evie
7/1 Song Of Passion
10/1 Harvest Queen
16/1 Shortest Day

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HAMILTON

There has been almost 15 Milimetres of Rain at Hamilton and the ground Has to be on the Soft Side.

Hamilton 2.15 -11/8 Hinton Admiral, 3/1 Ocean Of Champagne, 4/1 Prix Masque, 5/1 Wait Watcher, 12/1 Howards Tipple

All I can say really is OCEAN OF CHAMPAGNE may find the overnight rain hurting her chance significantly. She is a daughter
of Arkadian Hero who so far has not sired a winner that wasnt on fast ground and so far this sire looks a fast ground sire. I would
be looking to Oppose her. I had the unraced favourite HINTON ADMIRAL down as a "positive". Mark Johnstons trainer record
shows many precedents for unraced 2 year olds winning Hamilton maidens in June at this trip and That sways me to this horse
today providing a debutant winner. The 2005 race (only the second time this race has been run) went to an unraced horse and I
suspect HINTON ADMIRAL may be another. The Dam's 3 other foals were rated 70 80 and 114 at best and thats good breeding
and why I think HINTON ADMIRAL May win this. Mark Johnstone has had 3 unraced 2 year olds win at Hamilton in June before
and 2 of these won on soft ground.

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Hamilton 2:50 - George Wimpey Handicap (Class 6) (3yo,0-60) 1m65y

9/2 Markestino, 11/2 Touch Of Ivory, 6/1 Peephole, 7/1 Queen Jean, 8/1 Gigs Magic, Inchdhuaig, 10/1 Wednesdays Boy, 12/1 Ai Hawa, 14/1 Cape Sydney, 16/1 Kasarami, 20/1 Beginners Luck, Considerthelilies, Prince Marju, 33/1 Dark Night, 50/1 The Dunion,

Selection - INCHDHUAIG

It was Bonfire Night last November. Remember remember the fifth of november . That was the day when I first mentioned a Horse
on the message board called INCHDHUAIG of Patrick Haslams. I was told this horse 7 months ago and was told it was going to land
a Massive gamble for Patrick Haslam. It runs today in the 2.50 at Hamilton. I have no idea if today is the day but I am guessing that
it is as Patrick loves this track and has a great record with his 3 year old handicappers here. I shortlisted this down on stats to one of
the following runners - 9/2 Markestino -11/2 Touch Of Ivory -6/1 Peephole -7/1 Queen Jean -8/1 Gigs Magic -10/1Inchdhuaig -10/1 Wednesdays Boy


Not a great shortlist and too many runners for comfort but INCHDHUAIG is the horse that interested me the Most. There isnt much I can tell you about the horse. You can bet your last penny that the majority of his ability has been "hidden" through being handicapped. Haslam hasnt had a great 12 months. He had some good horses sent him after Richard Guest lost one of his more powerful owners and I dont think he had the infastructure at middleham to cope with these horses. He is a good trainer though and I know he will have scourered the programme Book to find the best race for INCHDHUAIG . This is only a 0-60 race. INCHDHUAIG has just been beaten 6 lengths in a 0-70 but that was from a bad draw at Beverley. This is Classic Haslam Modus Operandi In my opinion . INCHDHUAIG has a massive chance today and the market confidence in him looks highly significant. The overnight rain may well be in his favour being by
Inchinor and both his parents won on soft ground. I almost darent tip the horse as the price movement could tempt them to wait for another day but I have been waiting for the horse for 7 months and I am confident that Today is the day for INCHDHUAIG.

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Hamilton 3:25 - Kings Security Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-70) 1m1f36y

3/1 Lauro, 5/1 Dispol Veleta, 11/2 Alisdanza, 6/1 Hansomelle, 7/1 Whittinghamvillage, 10/1 Calamari, Ship Mate, 16/1 Ballycroy Girl, 25/1 Topflight Wildbird

Selection - DISPOL VELETA with a saver on HANSOMELLE 12/1

I thought this was fascinating. Last night before the rain I was tempted away from Dispol Veleta on fast ground and tempted by ALISDANZA as in the past this race has been dominated by horses that had a recent run. In fact there have been 8 horses in the history of this race that ran within 7 days of their last run and they finished W 2 W 2 W 2 W 2 which is very interesting. However the heavy rain has played right into DISPOL VELETA's favour. Much depends on just how you look at this race. If you take AISDANZA on Fitness, you could argue that She is easily the fittest horse in the race and the only one that has ran within the last week. The Ground worries me though about her. We dont know if she acts on soft ground. The half brother (Red Romeo) won all his races on firm ground
and it has to be a worry. If you take the "Class" factor then DISPOL VELETA is very interesting. He is rated 69 and only has a 0-59 field to beat and the 10lbs Gap between the Topweight and his next rival is massive and suggests a class gap. Not only that but 4 of the 6 winners of this race carried 9st 7lbs or more so the class horse more-often wins. You can also strongly fancy him as his trainer says he is a "better horse on soft ground". I really feel that DISPOL VELETA should beat Alisdanza today. I think the rain is a big problem for SHIP MATE. I dont think that WHITTINGHAMVILLAGE will stay in the ground . She has never raced beyond a Mile before. Her sire (Whittingham) hasb a 1-38 record with his runners beyond 8f and a 2-68 record beyond 7f and that looks like sprint bred territory to me. I respect LAURO but I do question whether she is fit enough to win this and she did flop when 2/1 favourite in this race last year. I dont see CALAMARI as Good enough. With the Rain it has to be DISPOL VELETA and HANSOMELLE

I Do like HANSOMELLE. If you get a chance watch the video of her last run then watch her and you will see a horse thats about to win soon. She is the blue horse trapped on the Rail that couldnt get a run for love nor money and cantered home in her own time. She was desperately unlucly. She has been better class than most of these in the past. She was rated 75 at one stage yet her rating has dropped to a ridiculous 57. She looks like she is coming to win again. She loves it here and soft ground isnt a problem. The only thing that stops me having a big each way bet on HANSOMELLE is the trip. She has never gone 9f before and this is an extended 9f on soft ground. There is a big doubt on breeding that she will get it . Thats why I would want HANSOMELLE as Saver material. I am Torn
between Savers here. I am quite Happy with DISPOL VELETA as the selection - The saver is a Toss up. Should I side with the Fit ALISDANZA and hope she goes on the ground or should I take HANSOMELLE and hope that her stamina holds up. DISPOL VELETA should win on the ground and in terms of the saver I am going with Hansomelle because I liked her on video and She has proven herself in far better grade.

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I thought there were some interesting long term gambles in other races at Hamilton. In the 5.40 REGAL FANTASY has been well backed at 25/1 from Paul Blockleys stable. In the 4.35 BUNDY (Who has placed in this race before) and ELKHORN have both been backed at 20/1. In the Claimer at 4.00 I was about to strongly tip Raccoon but I think the ground has gone against him now and I dont fancy him anymore.

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