Sending an Early Message today. Thoughts wont change in the Next 3 hours or so. Only remains to be seen whether
there is a Bet today or not . I dont know really. I shall let the markets settle and see how things look shortly. We have 4 meetings today. Dont want to get involved with Newmarket's July meeting tonight. Todays E Mail hasnt covered the evening cards. I dont think I am likely to have a bet tonight. Pontefract is "Ok". I have a few stats there that are just about worth mentioning this evening. They will be posted on the message board later. I would think we have just enough edges at Pontefract to make it worth a read. Carlisle's card this afternoon is dissapointing but I have backed 2 big priced horses
there in English City 16/1 (3.15pm) and Uhuru Peak 20/1 (4.25) and I would urge you to bet both and take the big prices. One of these may develop into a really great bet today. I love my Newbury analysis today. Well worth reading. Any bets that develop from todays thoughts will be sent later. Cant advise as to the Likelyhood of that. The 0871 line Froze yesterday and wasnt able to be updated. The problems been corrected now.

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Today's Racing


NEWBURY 2.00 - 3/1 Vital Statistics, 9/2 Nadawat, 7/1 Party, 8/1 Apache Dream, 12/1 Small Fortune, 14/1 Alecia, Queen´s Fortune, Roshanak, 16/1 Splendored Love, 20/1 Cow Girl, 25/1 Queen Of Fools, Regal Quest, 33/1 Blue Mistral, Lake Pontchartrain, Russian Rosie.

Advice - Oppose the experienced market leaders and expect a lightly raced horse like Nadawat or Apache Dream to win

This race has been run at Newbury in 2005 but prior to that its history was at Ascot. They have transfered meetings. This is always a Red Hot Maiden. Several quality unraced horses have been introduced. I think the last 8 winners of this race all ended up running in Group 1 company and this race has had a positive bearing on the 1000 Guineas when these horses are 3 year olds. The last 10 renewals saw 8 debutants win and the other 2 races went to"once raced" horses. Bearing in Mind the History of this race, and the fact so many strong decent newcomers have been introduced I would have to question the exposed horses.
After all favourite VITAL STATISTIC has had 4 runs, and has lost in 3 maidens so far. Could you really expect her to beat a True Group 1 horse if one was introduced in this race ? If She was that good she would have already one one of her 3 maidens or so you would expect. If this is as "Hot" a race as it normally turns out she is very vulnerable as is the twice raced PARTY 8/1 . VITAL STATISTIC and PARTY ran in the same race last time out so their form is intertwined. If one of them win then its probably a substandard race. My attentions would be on other runners and the unraced horses. I dont think you want a horse with experience in this race. Further Cicumstantial evidence of this can be gained through statistics. There have been 111 Maidens for 2 year old Fillies in July on Grade 1Tracks. Thats 111 Maidens. Only 1 of those went to a horse that had ran 3 or more times before (Balpare 1995). That suggests that quality horses are introduced at quality tracks and if a horse needs 4 runs before she can win then she cant be much good. Hopefully more evidence will come by the market. At this stage I would be making Both exposed runners negatives. NADAWAT is interesting. John Dunlop won this race in 2002 with Khulood (who won the Nell Gwyn as a 3 year old and ran in the 1000 Guineas). He often sends his best Filly to this race. Dunlop won the Maiden (with Wid ) that both Vital Statistic and Party ran in last time out so Dunlop will know just where he stands with NADAWAT today. I suspect she is pretty decent. APACHE DREAM is a well bred horse and has to be respected as a lightly raced type.

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NEWBURY 2.30 - 3/1 Folio, 7/1 Moheebb, Putra Square, Regal Flush, 10/1 Cry Presto, 14/1 Aqmaar, Dan Tucker, Monzante, Sowdrey, 16/1 Eager Lover, 25/1 Bold Abbott, Irish Dancer, Toggle, 33/1 Grimes Glory, Leonide, Oceana Gold, 50/1 Alnwick, Straw Boy.

Advice - The stats suggest FOLIO may make his advantage of a run tell

Like the opening race this race has been run at Newbury (once) and was an Ascot race for many years before that. Again like the opening race the contest has been littered with Group 1 and Group horses over the years and always seems to turn out a high class horse. Richard Hannon has won this 3 times from 9 runners. His 3 runners include CRY PRESTO 10/1 . Barry Hills has won this twice from 4 runners. His runners include favourite FOLIO . Unlike the opening race you are far more likely to see an experienced winner. Horses with 1 or 2 previous races have won 8 of the last 10 renewals. There have been a couple of unraced winners but this is a 7f race and its much harder for unraced horses to win on their debuts. This does point to FOLIO who is trading about 9/4 in the market. The 2 runs he has is an advantage. His stable won this race twice in the last 5 years. He has to be the "stats" selection. I have to admit if you just look at the race card for this race the unraced horses line up like a massive presence and its asking a hell of a lot to get them all beaten. The sheer numbers of unraced horses would scare me to death if betting this horse hard. I tell you what it reminded me of. It may be a "demon" playing with my mind but I felt like Michael Caine in Zulu looking up at the Top of the Hill at the sheer ferocity of Zulu warriors. Frightening thought. The History of this race does urge me to stick with Michael Caine and FOLIO . The unraced brigarde and threatening but that said half of them wont be trying. Many more wont be good enough and FOLIO has stall 1 and its not hard to envisage him getting the rails and leading and winning this through his experience against unraced horses. Thats what I think will happen. He is probably a far better bet than I realise.

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NEWBURY 3.00 - 1/3 Caradak, 7/1 Andronikos, Saville Road, 10/1 Rosinka, 25/1 Grimes Faith.

Advice - Take on the Odds on favourite with some 8/1 each way about ANDRONIKOS

There may be some mileage in trying to get red hot favourite CARADAK beaten in this Conditions race. I would suggest a small each way bet on Paul Cole's ANDRONIKOS . There hasnt been a past renewal to test any stats out in. I wouldnt know whether the younger or older horses are favoured here. That is the key to the race. However as ANDRONIKOS is rated 105, has won a Listed race and placed in a Group race before I have to assume he is a better class of horse than ROSINKA who has ran just twice before and has only achieved a maiden win against 2 year old fillies almost a year ago. SAVILLE ROAD is rated behind ANDRONIKOS and hasnt achieved half as much as him. That for me suggests the only real danger to the favourite CARADAK does come from the Cole horse ANDRONIKOS. I must admit I would have a lot more confidence on soft ground but I dont see CARADAK as unbeatable here. He is rated higher than all of his rivals. He likes the ground and He will probably win but you dont know if he is Fit or not. This is his first run for Godolphin. He has badly needed both his previous seasonal debuts and Lost them both. He is a Massive horse that could take some getting fit and he is likely to be a Miler. With such a doubt about the favourites fitness I think at 8/1 you have to consider an interest bet on ANDRONIKOS today.

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Newbury 3.35 - 100/30 Kahlua Kiss, 4/1 Bracklinn, Kinvara Lass, 9/2 Generosia, 6/1 Noora, 10/1 Della Salute, 12/1 Golden Applause, 16/1 Uig, 25/1 Muscari.

Advice - I have to assume a 3 year old wins. Marginal preference on Generosia 11/2 over Kinvara Lass 11/2 and Kahlua Kiss 4/1.

Fillies Handicap. Never been run before. Past Trends in other races are very thin on the ground so I would be guessing here for the "ideal type". The 3 year olds in this race are KAHLUA KISS 100/30 , KINVARA LASS 4/1 and GENEROSIA 9/2. They are all towards the head of the betting. I would say that is probably sensible. Given the choice (and this is solely on guesswork and not stats) I would have thought you are better to stick to 3 year olds as they get 10lbs weight for age. I would prefer a 3 year old. At first glance one horse I wouldnt bet is BRACKLINN 4/1. She is a 4 year old and she has raced just once since last October and as a "Once raced" horse I would be inclined to assume she may not be winning. That is an assumption though and that is not based on any relevant evidence so I could have that wrong. NOORA has sopme reasonable handicap form. Her chance depends on whether she can give the weight for age away to the 3 year olds and I am not sure she can. Shes rated 77 and has won off 71 and surely one of the 3 year olds can be better than that and with the weight for age I still feel you want a 3 year old. One of these GENEROSIA is a horse I backed last time who won in a Photo. I am not sure about the drop back to 10f but I like this horse. She is from a Dam that has bred quality . Her Dam has produced 4 foals. One was useless but 3 were Pattern Class and rated over 100. When she won last time I thought her handicap mark of 49 was ludicrous. Today she is higher in the weights but the weight for age will help her a lot. I do like her. I wouldnt be confident about rating the assured potential of many others. There are plenty of "Improvers" here that will be hard to assess. From then other 3 year olds KAHLUA KISS has achieved More than KINVARA LASS but the latter is well bred and her trainer (Cumani) does well with her type. Its also noticable that KAHLUA KISS is quite weak in the market (4/1 out to 13/2. My Gut feeling is a 3 year old will win. I wont pretend i know which one is best. I will
stay with GENEROSIA after selecting her last time. The issue with GENEROSIA is whether she has just stepped up too much in class. E/W looks best.

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NEWBURY 4.45 - 7/2 Young Bertie, 4/1 Le Chiffre, 5/1 Dr Synn, 6/1 Pure Imagination, Taranaki, 8/1 Kareeb, 10/1 Border Edge, Linda´s Colin, 14/1 Simpsons Ross, 33/1 Villarosi, 50/1 Megalala.

Advice - Oppose Young Bertie with Le Chiffre or Pure Imagination each way

This race has never been run before. Every horse has Ticks in the "Going" and "Distance" Boxes . Not obvious negatives straight away. Looks quite trappy. There have been 37 identical races in recent years. That being 7f all aged handicaps for apprentice riders. The only clear stat that looks interesting concerns the favourite YOUNG BERTIE. He is a 3 year old that came from a 3 year old handicap. On the whole 3 year olds in this race are weaker than older horses generally. However the majority of 3 year olds that did win tended to be those already tested against older horses. YOUNG BERTIE is not. You could also argue that he wasnt that experienced either. After all he has ran just 7 times before. From the 37 "apprentice" handicaps I researched 36 of the 37 winners had more runs than he has . YOUNG BERTIE is quite well related so I wouldnt fall over myself to lay him but he does come across as having a vulnerable profile to me and I wouldnt bet him. SIMPSONS ROSS is the other horses doing that and is another negative. I would look to play each way in the race. I would also look to try and get the above horses beaten. If you assume that Villarosi cant win, and you assume that as DR SYNN has conditions against him as it is stated He "will only run if the rains come" then you have PURE IMAGINATION and LE CHIFFRE rated 9lbs higher than all other runners. Thats the way I would go. Hope and expect their class to get them home in front. Its a Guess and no more.

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CARLISLE 2.10 - 1/2 Princess Ileana, 7/2 Startolini, 8/1 Wanchai Night, 16/1 Alavana, 20/1 Neveronamonday.

Advice - Dont bother with the race

Not really a race we can work with. An odds on favourite. Just 5 runners. Statistically from 10 renewals the angle that stood out strongest to me was that the higher weights struggled. Weights are based on Sales Prices. WANCHAI NIGHT was the most expensive of these at the sales so he has the highest weight. The record from the last 10 renewals from horses that carried 8st 9lbs or more certainly struggled. I do think better records come from the lighter weighted horses. I wouldnt lay the Topweight especially in a small field. That stat certainly isnt good enough to open this race up enough to consider a bet in it.

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CARLISLE 2.45 - 4/5 Sualda, 11/4 Evolution Ex, 5/1 Regency Red, 10/1 Buddy Brown.

Advice - Favourites solid enough but a poor betting race

Again a dissapointing small field. EVOLUTION EX was a John Gosden horse last year. Over the winter he downgraded stables for £20k to Karl Burkes. That looks Good business for Gosden as he hasnt looked the same horse this year. Obvioulsy its a tricky stable. May well be that he does retain ability but its been Hidden. May well be this drop in class is what he needs. It may be this step up in trip is what he needs but on pedigree I wouldnt have thought so. I certainly wouldnt want him. I backed him a couple of years ago at Chester and felt he had quirks then. On his racecourse performances this year I couldnt bet him. REGENCY RED is by far the worst off at these weights. I can only see him winning if others underperform. BUDDY BROWN looks out of form and on breeding is a long way from sure to stay this far. It does look like a solid favourite in SUALDA. Not a race I would invest a penny on.

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CATTERICK 3.15 - Evs Prince Picasso, 4/1 Farne Island, 7/1 Jill Dawson, 10/1 Mambo Sun, 12/1 English City, 14/1 Decree Nisi, 16/1 Dancing Flame, 25/1 Crimson Flame, Sunbolt, 50/1 Little Britain.

Advice - I have had some sentimental 16/1 about ENGLISH CITY

Hot Favourite in Mark Prescott's PRINCE PICASSO. The Racing Post state " PRINCE PICASSO does not appear as far ahead of the handicapper as some of his stablemates" and seem to think he is worth taking on. I do like the fact PRINCE PICASSO carries 9lbs more weight than any other runner. Thats a true sign of class difference. In fact this is a 0-65 and he has just won a 0-68 easily by almost 3 lengths. He looks pretty solid to me and the stable won this race in 2004. On paper his last win looks just as good if not better than FARNE ISLAND's win last time where he beat MAMBO SUN. This step up in trip has to suit the filly JACK DAWSON and I find it hard to see why she cant win. I have to mention ENGLISH CITY . I Felt he could have been an account bet winner this year. So unlucky when I tipped him at Musselburgh when he was beaten in a photo after a bad ride. He went to Chester in a better race than this and ran a solid 4th after suffering interference. He then failed to stay 12f at Wolverhampton. His Sire (City On a Hill) hasnt had a 12f winner from his offspring yet so perhaps it was asking too much of him to stay last time out on the sand. I dont know whether his winning chance has gone or not. I think he has been badly placed by his trainer. He is a well bred horse from a family that produced Group class horses. He is Not out of this today back in trip. This horse may well cause a ripple today and he might just flaw the favourite. I think he has a hell of a lot more ability than he would need to have to win a 0-65 race like this. Its just that How Good is this favourite and how much better than 0-65 class is he ? My selection would be ENGLISH CITY Each way. I would say thats part sentiment. Part Faith but also Part sense as his best runs suggest 14/1 is value.

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CARLISLE 4.25 - 5/2 Carnivore, 11/4 Pay Time, 5/1 Attacca, 7/1 Champain Sands, 12/1 Flaxby, Out Of India, 16/1 Borodinsky, Uhuru Peak.

Advice - I have had some 25/1 about Uhuru Peak in a race the stats suggest the market could be all wrong.

Not sure what to make of this. Happy to risk looking Foolish . Perhaps time for a bit of self indulgance. There have been 7 renewals of this race and thats not many but the History of this race has made me think. CARNIVORE has raced once this year and no past winner of this race has done that. In fact looking at similar races at every other track "once raced" animals are pretty poor and whilst I wouldnt say he wasnt going to win I do think its a Genuine doubt having just one race as so few other winners manage it . Thats a Niggle for me with him. Both CARNIVORE and PAY TIME are last time out winners. I dont know if its coincidental , or whether its significant that horses that finished 1-2-3-4 on their latest starts had an appaling 1/30 record in this race. Its quite possibly nothing , but horses that came into this race with a good finish last time out have done remarkably poorly. All 11 last time out winners lost. All 5 that carried a penalty like PAY TIME lost as well. That does make me wonder whether we shouldnt consider "hidden" form as a priority here. I think its very interesting that UHURU PEAK 25/1 the outsider managed 2nd place in this race last year when looking out of form and I think that makes him an interesting runner at a value price. ATTACA was 3rd in this race last year and I also think thats interesting. I suppose if you want to strictly apply ALL stats in the race and rule out
Maidens (0/14 in this race) and Fillies (0/19 in this race) then you are looking at BORODINSKY and UHURU PEAK the two outsiders as the horses that closely match past winners more than all other horses. I have to admit it I do like horses that ran well in the previous years race and I think both ATTACA and UHURU PEAK are very interesting runners. If the race goes like last years race UHURU PEAK will be outpaced at the back running as if he needs further but he will stay on late with a strong late run. He should possibly have won last years race as he finished far better than anything and the winner got first run on him and I really think he is worth a bet today.

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CARLISLE 4.55 -Evs Grand Opera, 11/4 Spinning, 13/2 Naval Attache, 12/1 Wee Ziggy, 14/1 Inchmarlow, 16/1 Active Audience, 25/1 Newcastles Owen, 33/1 Zantero, 50/1 Warren Place, 66/1 Bottomless Wallet, 100/1 Beacon Rambler.

Advice - I cant see past Grand Opera and Spinning

Half the field are older Horses. Half the Field are 3 year olds. I would have to side with 3 year olds. Get rid of the older horses as the weight for age favours the younger generation. All 21 Older horses in this race lost and only 4 placed and if you look at other maidens at other tracks at this trip its clear that 4 year olds and older struggle. Most are unfancied but 3rd favourite NAVAL ATTACHE is rejected as well . After all NAVAL ATTACHE is rated 49 and has just been beaten off 49 in a selling handicap. How is he expected to give weight for age to the 77 rated GRAND OPERA ?. I think thats a ridiculous task. GRAND OPERA isnt rock solid but the ground will suit, I think the drop in trip is a good idea as well and he has had some excuses in a couple of his 7 races without a win. SPINNING looks good enough to give him a race. I cant see past the front pair in the market. I find it hard to see what will challenge them. I dont think I can split them to be honest. I just think one of them wins.

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