SECOND MESSAGE Being Sent Later This Afternoon before 3pm.


1 Account Bet

Ayr 2.30 - (6) HANSOMIS 9/2

£50 Each Way


9/2 Chandlers - Stan James - Sportingbet
4/1 Ladbrokes -Corals -Totesport -Totalbet -Bet36 -Blue Sq-PaddyP-Betdirect-Skybet

There will be a SECOND MESSAGE a little later on. I am interested in the 5.20 at Ayr and a Race at Wolverhampton this evening. I dont know yet if a second bet is likely or not. It has been a strange study period. The message started off in a completely different way to how it has ended up and I have chopped bits in and out all day. Most of the detailed work I have done has not been reflected in the e mail and the work I have done in the Mail doesnt feel that relevant. There were 4 possible bets today.

I really liked the ZETLAND Stakes (2.05) at Newmarket. I was strongly pondering a bet at 10/1 on FASHION STATEMENT in a race . I would have had a saver on PHILANTHROPY at 7/1. Feel thats a strong stats race but in the end I was puzzled and worried that her pilot Phillip Robinson has rejected her for my main negative in the race. I have backed FASHION STATEMENT and had the saver though and I will watch this race with fascination. In the end I dont think I made the case for her. The second possible bet is the account bet HANSOMIS who I feel is a good bet each way at 9/2. I am going each way as I have some concerns about the stable and I think she is very unlikely to finish unplaced. My 3rd and 4th best Options are in later races. I will have to update later as I need to watch some video's and see if I can find a bet . There could be a later bet but I need that extra couple of hours.

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Talking Points

Yesterday's Summary

Didnt feel like a good day to me yesterday as My First Negative went in for the Negatives Service breaking a 100% record and that was a shame but we had to be Bloodied. The message was pretty solid overall though. We had both winners of the maiden courtesy of Barry Hills at 7/4 and 4/7. Into The Dark won well at 11/4 and that was a good little preview. We got Dream Scheme beaten and I should have advised that as the lay yesterday and got the winner of the race from 2 picks. There was a 22/1 winner in a shortlist of 4 horses in one of the handicaps. The National Hunt side of things wasnt as good as I said yesterday I an not fully there yet with the jumps.

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Today's Racing


ASCOT has to be left completely alone today in my opinion. It is a New track after the renovations. There are no Stats and no history in any of the races and there has been tremendous problems with the ground. They have fast ground that has been heavily watered which has caught them out and the whole card looks riddled with Danger. Not interested in the slightest at having any bets at Ascot. Starting with the CHARLIE HALL CHASE at Wetherby today.


Wetherby 3.25 - Bet365 Charlie Hall Chase Grade 2 (Class 1) (5yo+) 3m1f

3/1 Neptune Collonges, 4/1 Our Vic, 9/2 Take The Stand, 11/2 Kingscliff, 8/1 Church Island, Iris´s Gift, 9/1 Royal Emperor, 10/1 Sir Rembrandt, 66/1 Jungle Jinks, 200/1 Jaloux D´Estruval.

CONCLUSION - My Gut feeling is the winner May come from one of NEPTUNES COLLONGES, KINGSCLIFFE or IRIS'S GIFT

Plenty of "mystery" in this race. Which OUR VIC will turn up today ? He either looks High Class or Dreadfull. At his best he Wins. On Most of his runs he wont get placed. OUR VIC has problems and never really convinces you to trust him. He seems pent up and upset as if carrying an undiagnosed injury . He does run very well when Fresh though and he has the Class. You almost wouldnt dare bet him and you wouldnt dare laying him. He also has to prove he stats. The other horse at the Top of the weights KINGSCLIFFE 11/2 has the class to win this and on ratings and weight he must come out as a good thing today if he is at his best. Can he be though with perennial Back Problems. TAKE THE STAND wont like the ground but he does act on it. The "mystery" with him is just how well will he cope with this ground today . TAKE THE STAND is probably a horse that can win on this ground if the top class horses like Our Vic and Kingscliffe dont deliver which is entirely possible. If they do deliver then he probably wouldnt be good enough on this ground. So his chance is tied up really with how others run in the race. IRIS'S GIFT has a Major chance if he Jumps . Thats always been his problem. So which IRIS'S GIFT will turn up today ? If he jumps well he has a major form chance in this race and has apparantly "thrilled" connections and "Jumped like a Gazelle". You wouldnt bank on that happening in the race though. It would be a Tonic for his owner who is recovering from a Heart Attack but whilst that would make a lovely story you cant be sure who is writing the script in this race. The race is littered with horses that cane hack up "IF " they can do what they are capable of but none can really be predicted. Personally I dont think SIR REMBRANDT is good enough anymore. I cant have CHURCH ISLAND as no horse has won this coming from a Novice Handicap Chase before and second season chasers dont do well. The favourite NEPTUNES COLLONGES is not out of this either at 3/1. There has been no 5 year old winner in recent history but only one tried and he managed a second at 33/1 in this race. The issue with 5 year olds in complicated as far more are not trying to win these Graded Chases and I think we are in a sea change and I would be reluctant to oppose them just because so few tried in previous years. You can not say statistically that 5 year olds are disadvantaged and this horse comes here with a Massive reputation. ROYAL EMPEROR had a great chance in this race in 2004 but ran badly and his chance doesnt look blatantly obvious. My Gut feeling is the winner May come from one of NEPTUNES COLLONGES, KINGSCLIFFE or IRIS'S GIFT but like so many in this race it is a case of many of these having "Jeckyll and Hyde" profiles. I dont want to trust OUR VIC at the trip or TAKE THE STAND on the ground. I cant split my 3 without a blatant Guess but they stand out to me.

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NEWMARKET

NEWMARKET isnt easy but at least you know what you are getting. The Opening Maidens for juveniles are imposible and I have no strong angles there are just have to bypasss them. The ZETLAND STAKES is very interesting though.

NEWMARKET 2.05 - Bet365 Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) 1m2f

11/8 Empire Day, 7/2 One To Follow, 9/1 Guacamole, 10/1 Aaim To Prosper, 12/1 Fashion Statement, Philanthropy, 14/1 Clarricien, 16/1 Shimoni, 20/1 Bed Fellow, 20/1 Cordwain.

LISTED race for Juveniles over a marathon 10f trip so a misture of class and stammina and fitness are needed. This race has a very long History. The Big Negative for me has to be ONE TO FOLLOW 9/2. He is a once raced Charlie Cox horse. This race has gone to "Once raced" horses only 3 times in the last 20 years and all 3 races went to Mark Johnston. Two of these were Group 1 horses in Double Trigger and Double Eclipse in the Mid 1990's. It can be done but its taken 2 Group 1 horses to do it and I really dont think you want a once raced horse. The other factor against him for me is he steps up from 7f to 10f. Thats a Huge Leap. Horses conditioned and trained to race at 7f have a
real culture shock moving up to 10f. There have been 30 horses to do that in the last 20 years of this race and NONE managed to win. If He hasnt got enough problems with the trip and the fact he has raced just once he also has a 92 day absence and its very rare that this race is one by a horse having a big absence. I want to Oppose AAIM TO PROSPER 10/1 and BED FELLOW 20/1 as well. This is because they come from Nursery's. They have to bridge the Class Gap between Handicaps and Listed races. Horses that have done that in this race have a pretty poor 1-26 record. For it only to have happened once in the last 20 years suggests to me it is a tall order and this included several beaten favourites including last years 4/6 favourite who was beaten easily. AAIM TO PROSPER and BED FELLOWare pretty exposed with 6 races a piece. Only 1 of the last 20 winners ran as many times before and I dont like these today. There have been plenty of shocks in this race over the years. I think the favourite EMPIRE DAY has a clear chance but He is pretty short and there is enough strength in the race to be hopeful of getting him beaten. I am rejecting GUACAMOLE 5/1. She can win this race and I like the fact she is a filly but I have her "3rd best"
and I reject her mainly on two reasons. The First is that she comes from a Handicap which is explained earlier. The second is that when I have looked at the record of all Inchinor juveniles at 8f trips and more and cross referenced them with soft ground quite simply not enough of them win and I think 10f on good to soft ground may stretch her. Its a close call and I may be wrong but I prefer others. CLARRICIEN 10/1 also looks interesting. Lightly raced and Bred to stay he has the right profile winning just once and coming from a maiden and the last 2 winners did that. My 2 main fancies are PHILANTHROPY 7/1 and FASHION STATEMENT 11/1.

I like Mark Johnston's second string PHILANTHROPY 7/1. It is interesting that Sheikh Mohammed has pulled rank and taken him off Jumeriah Racing . He won well last time out. The runner up went down in a photo in a Group race in France next time out. We know he stays and his Sire Generous won this race in 1999 (Gentilhomme) with the only horse he has bred that raced in this contest over the years. Generous has a great strike rate with juveniles beyond a Mile and the record of horses in this race that ran at 10f last time as he does is 4-10. PHILANTHROPY has a great chance.

FASHION STATEMENT 11/ is not without a serious chance. She is a Filly but fillies have a great recent record in this race. They had no fillies in the 2000 renewal but they won in 2001. They may have won in 2002 but for the runner up putting up overweight and the female sex won this race in 2003, 2004 and 2005. FASHION STATEMENT is very hard to assess winning a nonesense race last time out but her trainer won this in 2004 and she looks a guaranteed stayer being by Rainbow Quest out of a sister to Oaks winner Casual Look and with 10 of the last 12 winners coming from a Maiden and 17 of the last 20 winners having won just one previous race she is statistically perfect in this race. I find it quite mystifying that Phillip Robinson has got off her and chosen to ride One To Follow who I dont like at all in the race.

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OTHER NEWMARKET RACES

The Montrose Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) at 2.35 is not a race where I felt my stats were good enough to go into the race with confidence against so many young improving horses. That race looked far too dangerous. I Havent a single angle in the race that I trust. Just superficial angles that steer you away from horses like Passage of Time that havent raced in ages and horses coming from handicaps like Lady Grace and Laurentina 12/1. Looks very much a race to avoid.

Statistically the Ben Marshall Stakes (3.10) is Better but not clear cut. ARMY OF ANGELS 6/4 if he stays must go close. What Value he is at 6/4 though is very questionable. Personally I didnt think FINAL VERSE had the right profile. I didnt like his long absence from the track. I didnt like SOMNUS either at this trip and ground. I would also be against the Filly BAHIA BREEZE and BABODANA who flopped in this race last year. NAYIR has a Group race penalty thats very rarely ever carried to victory in this race ( 1-26 managed it). POLAR BEN could win this if at peak but he also flopped in this race last year and I would want to know why/ Its not easy to oppose ARMY OF ANGELS but he isnt value.

The 8f Handicap at 3.45 isnt for me. My Angles are not food enough to produce a shortlist worthy of commenting on. The strongest angles inthe race suggest to me that you can be optimistic about getting the Market leaders Supeseus and Harvest Queen beaten . One comes from a 3year old handicap and the other is a Filly and neither of those types have done well in this race over the years.

I can do a little better in the Handicap at 4.55

6/1 Blues In The Night, 13/2 Trimlestown, 7/1 Misphire, 8/1 Fabrian, 10/1 Breaking Shadow, Marshman, Passion Fruit, Resplendent Nova, 14/1 Indian Edge, 16/1 Starlight Gazer, 20/1 Blue Java, Gavarnie Beau, Inaminute, Littleton Telchar, Marajaa, Phluke, 25/1 Dune Melody, Grizedale, Makfly, Sun Catcher.

What this 7f handicap demands is pretty clear. You dont want a horse coming from a 6f race. All 52 failed and thats a negative for the likes of Misphire 7/1 as well as Passion Fruit , Starlight Gazer, Gavarnie Beau and Sun Catcher. FILLIES have a bad record and should be opposed. So to horses that had ran in Listed or Group class before as a 1-60 record testifies. Horses aged 6 or more have struggled as well as have horses that 13-20 races (1-75 record) as these are the types most likely to have been "Caught" by the handicapper as he has had time to asses them. My Shortlist would be any from these "ideal" runners. 6/1 Blues In The Night - 13/2 Trimlestown - 10/1 Breaking Shadow - 14/1 Indian Edge - 20/1 Blue Java 20/1 -Marajaa -20/1 Phluke.

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AYR 2.30 - 5/2 Goodbye Cash, 4/1 Hansomis, 11/2 Billy Ruffian, 6/1 Pietersen, 7/1 Only A Grand, 8/1 Redcliff, 10/1 Hunting Call, 25/1 Homes By Woodford, 33/1 Prince Noel.

This is a Nursery to be run on Heavy ground. I Cant have several here. I dont want REDCLIFFE 8/1. I dont like his absence of 55 days or the fact he has downgraded stables from Amanda Perrett to Mick Easterby. No horse has won an Ayr Nursery at this time of year before with such an absence. I cant have ONLY A GRAND as the sire (Cloudings) has a miserable record with his 2 and 3 year olds. I dont want BILLY RUFFIAN 6/1 either. Look at Tim Easterby's record in Nurserys at this time of year. His record in Nurserys in October and November that have less than 7 career starts have a miserable 1-75 record and this is not the Tim Easterby Modus Operandi. I cant have HUNTING CALL 10/1. His stable cant buy a winner at the moment. They are 0-44 in October and the vast majority of these didnt finish in the top half of the placings. He really is struggling. I was quite taken with GOODBYE CASH's 3 day absence thinking that may well be a fitness advantage. To my amazement of you look all every Nursery over 6 furlongs in October and November there have been 197 of them and the record of horses like GOODBYE CASH that had ran within 4 days is incredibly bad. They have a 1-34 record and havent won since 1990. The 1-34 doesnt sound that bad but I feel it is considering these horses should be fitter than any. I think PIETERSEN cam be given a chance back at 6f. He was beaten rather a long way last over 7f and this 6f trip ought to suit better. Its difficult to know just how much it will help or how much it will need to help. The trainer record in these races is average without being spectacular but he is a well bred horse and ran well last time and will like conditions. He has to go quite close. I strongly fancy a horse thats bred to win this race. This is HANSOMIS 9/2. I know the family quite well. They love soft ground, and they are 6f horses as juveniles. I am worried that this trainer hasnt had a winner for a couple of years but he hardly has any horses and they are not good animals anyway. What I thought significant about her chance is that the Dam of this horse has bred 2 other horses. One of these (The History Man) won this race last year so you can argue strongly that HANSOMIS is bred to win this race. She was drawn on the wrong side at Ayr last time buut easily won "her side"of the race. She really caught the eye on video and looked capable of far better than her draw allowed her to show. She has been handicapped off just 66 yet her brother (Handsomelle) won a Nursery off 75 as a Juvenile and her other brother ( The History Man ) won this race from 69 last year. If she had a bigger stable then we would be talking maximums for me. I think she will win this race though and probably be prominent all the way.

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