Account Bets

REDCAR 3.40 (1) WESTPORT £40 Win

REDCAR 3.40 (13) MAISON DIEU £5 SAVER

£45 Staked On the Day

Plenty of 11/4 available for WESTPORT and 8/1 for MAISON DIEU

Returning to the account with a horse I hope will outclass his rivals today as he gives weight to inferior horses.
I expect him to make the running and hopefully hold on. The stakes are £50-£100 now so this is just an average bet.
I do want the Saver for reasons given later. There will be a Message tomorrow but it wont be a very long one. Anyone wants opinions on other races today just post on the message board.

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Talking Points

* Yesterdays Summary

My best bet WISE CHOICE was 2nd at 7/1 beaten by a 33/1 outsider. Would have been sick if I had gone with that on the account but pleased how he ran and think it was worth the few quid I had on him. Got plenty right and wrong yesterday. At SANDOWN we got the short priced horses right. Christmas Tart and Excellent Art both won easily. Tungsten Strike was one of 2 shortlisted for the Group race and He won at 4/1. Taanzanite was clearly a positive in the 4.00 and he beat the odds on favourite winning at 5/1. Moody Tunes 5/6 could only finish second but the 14/1 winner in the last race was in a big shortlist and overall Sandown results were excellent and some good analysis there. At REDCAR I fancied No Worries Yet each way and he was placed at 7/1. The shortlist didnt bring the Zetland Gold Cup winner but River Kirov Won and the only other race I played in was Wise Choice. At Leicester I got the 2.20 wrong and I think I called the ground wrong there and that was a mistake as I got the 4.50 wrong as well and luckily that was the only two races there I played in. I got Tranos wrong at Chepstow and he was beaten by the ground in my opinion. Alittleriskie lost at 11/2 as well but Sabbioisa won at 7/2 to end the day nicely. The message was a bit disorganised and lacked a lot of detail in places but plenty of winners there to make up for the main bet getting touched off by an outsider at 33/1.

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Todays Racing


REDCAR

Redcar 3:10 -Pertemps Employment Alliance Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m1f

9/2 Dium Mac, 6/1 Danceinthevalley, Mobane Flyer, 7/1 Lauro, Wrenlane, 8/1 Waterloo Corner, 10/1 Bright Sun, Sforzando, Time To Regret, 14/1 Wing Commander, 20/1 Fossgate, Royal Master, 33/1 Capped For Victory, 66/1 Mccormack, 100/1 King Nicholas, 200/1 Beltane,

Too many runners for confidence. Trying to narrow this down quickly but we wont have too many we can rule out. In this race all 37 seasonal debutants were beaten which would concern me for Danceinthevalley 6/1 and Fossgate 20/1. We have a poor record with horses coming from Maiden races as Waterloo Corner does and he can be overlooked as well. Thats as far as I would dare to go statistically without taking unnecessary risks. I would consider BRIGHT SUN as he was 3rd in this race last year not beaten a length and was only passed late by a well handicapped winner. He likes it here and could be a horse that will certainly run his race much as he isnt easy to win with and does have Kim Tinkler on board. 12/1 is a reasonable shout for a horse that nearly won it before.

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Redcar 3:40 - Hot Chocolate Here In August Handicap (Class 5) (3yo,0-70) 6f

7/2 Westport, 4/1 Maison Dieu, 13/2 Mormeatmic, 7/1 Beowulf, Making Music, 12/1 Inca Soldier, 14/1 Electron Pulse, 16/1 Countess Carmine, 20/1 Grafton, King Faz, Penny Whisper, The Thrifty Bear, 25/1 Bond Angel Eyes, English Archer,

Selection - WESTPORT + Saver

WESTPORT for me especially in this class. He raced twice for John Gosden and after winning his maiden at Southwell in February he moved to Kevin Ryan who I rate highly these days. I think there is an argument that says WESTPORT is well handicapped today. Bear in mind this is a 0-67 handicap which is really quite a weak race. On his first start for Ryan he was 4th in a 0-80 handicap at Lingfield. That race was quite possibly a race where Ryan just wanted to have a look at him and there is every chance that he wasnt fancied that day. His lowest rated opponent there was rated 74 yet today his highest opponent rated just 66 and 8lbs lower and none of the horses he faced would have been allowed to even run in this handicap. That was over 7f and Ryan said that he believed the horse was "a sprinter" so he may not have been running over his best trip. Last time WESTPORT ran in a 0-82 over 6 furlongs. He came 2nd that day . Once again his lowest rated opponent was rated considerably higher than his highest rated opponent is today . On the A.O.R. Scale this is a big drop in class and he ran very well last time in second place. I think WESTPORT is a class above this company and the fact the handicapper has kept him on a mark of 70 is another big advantage. Today he moves from recieving weight from better class horses to conceeding weight to inferior horses and he really should win this race. ELECTRON PULSE comes from a stable thats never won a 3 year old handicap with such an inexperienced horse before and never with a horse that comes from a maiden as she does. MAKING MUSIC comes from a stable whose last 75 3 year old handicappers have been beaten at Redcar in the last 6 years . MORMEATIC is a danger but has never met a horse like WESTPORT before . BEOWULF has a chance but I want to save on MAISON DIEU. He only won a seller last time and was bought out of that Seller by Eric Alston. He is a saver as this race has a habit of lightweight winners coming from selling races to win this and I dont want to underestimate him. At 8/1 a cheap fiver buys him out of the way. It has to be WESTPORT though and Any price around 11/4 looks generous to me.

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Redcar 4:10 - Pertemps People Development Group Handicap (Class 4) (3yo,0-85) 5f

4/1 Blazing Heights, 9/2 Welcome Approach, 5/1 City For Conquest, 11/2 Mulligan´s Gold, 6/1 Crosby Hall, Hits Only Jude, 8/1 Rare Breed, 10/1 Night In,

I have just 2 negatives in this race. I cant gain an edge into what may win the race. No Margin for error at this trip and no past history from the race to acertain clues so I am staying with 2 negatives. The two obvious negatives for me are MULLIGANS GOLD and CROSBY HALL. With MULLIGANS GOLD this isnt the track for Tim Easterby's 3 year old handicappers. The last 75 have been beaten at Redcar in the last 6 years so I see no reason why this horse should be the 1st winner from 76 that tried. Trainer -Course stats can often lead you up the garden path but the 0-75 record does worry me. CROSBY HALL is also a negative. He is a seasonal debutant from Nigel Tinklers stable. Tinklers record with 3 year old handicappers on their seasonal debut at any time of the year and at any distance is 0-82. He doesnt have them so he is also listed as a negative. May not help much but I would encourage you to look elsewhere for the winner

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Redcar 5:10 - Go Racing At Beverley Tomorrow Evening Amateur Riders' Maiden Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+,0-60) 6f

7/2 California Laws, 5/1 Flaxby, 13/2 Weakest Link, 10/1 Harrington Bates, Montana, Tagula Bay, Tartan Special, 14/1 Billy One Punch, Briery Lane, Dark Champion, 20/1 Fir Tree, Grandos, Nazaaha, Zantero, 25/1 Dazzler Mac, 33/1 Algorithm, 100/1 Beau Jazz, Value Plus,

I do love these races but this one might just be a bit too "dark" and may have too many runners. The racing post say " it looks well worth chancing the fitness of CALIFORNIA LAWS " but I disagree and I am against him. Firstly in the long history of this race seasonal debutants have a poor 1-32 record. More than that though. David Barons has a 0-46 record in Handicaps in May on their seasonal debut and all 10 he ran in Amateur races were beaten as well. The stable record does not back up the suggestion that we give CALIFORNIA LAWS the benefit of the doubt. Time to rule out certain "Blocks" of horses and I am starting with Fillies. They do and can win but a 2-111 record is poor and I am against Tagula Bay, Algorithm, Nazaaha and Value Plus. The next group of horses I am against are horses that ran just once this year. They dont score well. They have a 1-53 record and I have to be against the likes of Tartan Special, Zantero, Dazzler Mac and 100/1 Beau Jazz. I also want to oppose the horses that came from a 5f race. I liked doing this in many 6f races and in this race only 1 from 61 suceeded. I also want a horse thats ran within 31 days as the others that did not had a 1-73 record.

Shortlist

13/2 Weakest Link
10/1 Montana
14/1 Billy One Punch
14/1 Briery Lane
20/1 Fir Tree
20/1 Grandos

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Chepstow 3:30 - John Smith's Backing Winners Claiming Stakes (Class 6) (3yo+) 5f16y

7/4 Endless Summer, 3/1 Phinerine, 7/2 Mynd, 9/1 Stagnite, 12/1 Blakeshall Quest, 16/1 Von Wessex, 20/1 Jinksonthehouse, 25/1 Tiffin Deano, 33/1 Saucepot, 50/1 Stingray

Much does depend on how ENDLESS SUMMER comes out of his race last week. I fancied him then when he was 3rd. His long absence wasnt an issue for me as I feel he goes well fresh but I also agree with the Racing Post that he isnt certain to improve for that run and he could just as soon run badly as hack up. That does tempt me to oppose him each way especially as Tony Carrol is not the most predictable of stables. I would like to think the likes of Von Wessex , Blakeshall Quest, Jinksonthehouse and the other outsiders will need the race. Seasonal debutants (1-48) and horses that had just the 1 race that season do not score well. In terms of a sensible alternative to ENDLESS SUMMER I am not interested in PHINERINE as a 3 year old. If you look at 6f Claiming races in May and June the last 3 year old to win was back in 1994 and all 34 were beaten since. I just want an older horse. STAGNITE has a touch of ability but has been beaten in Banded company and has a poor strike rate. The main danger has to be MYND each way at 7/2 and there is a lot to like about the 3 day absence as the last time MYND faced that sort of absence he won. On ratings he is about 14lbs behind ENDLESS SUMMER and his chance will certainly be helped if the favourite runs below par.

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Sandown 6:10 - betfairpoker.com Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (3yo+,0-75) 1m1f

3/1 Fann, 4/1 Let Slip, 9/2 Dimelight, 11/2 Ignition, 6/1 Celtic Spa, 13/2 Greenmeadow, 10/1 Adage, 25/1 Seldemosa,

LETS SLIP gets the Vote in an interesting fillies handicap. CELTIC STAR is well handicapped but she didnt do enough for me last time watching her and I dont think she has come to himself yet. DIMELIGHT must have a good chance in a race like this but David Elsworths record with similar horses in similar races suggests to me she will need another run before she is a betting proposition. I would be looking to oppose DIMELIGHT and CELTIC SPA and very relunctantly. There are many here that cant be ruled out and cant be accurately judged either so there is an element of guesswork in the race. I think LETS SLIP is worth the vote. I have one thing I love about her and one thing I hate about her. The thing that stands out to me is the Gap between the weight of LETS SLIP the topweight who carries 10st and her nearest rival who carries 9st 5lbs. Thats a massive 9lbs gap and suggests that LETS SLIP is by far the classiest horse in this race. I do have one worry with her though and thats the weight of 10st as that may be tough to carry. This race has been run only 3 times but in all 3 races light weighted horses dominated and I would have a strong suspicion that Sandown is a track where fillies handicaps go to light weighted horses. If you ignore LET SLIP's last run which wasnt great , she won a 0-78 handicap and today faces a mere 0-66 handicap. I think I could formulate a great case for LETS SLIP Winning on the Aor's but My gut feeling is telling me that she has too much weight . I am going to give her the benefit of the doubt as I believe a Class horse can carry weight against inferior opposition. She is a horse I would happily select as the bet in a preview but her weight stops me considering her as an account bet.

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Sandown 6:40 - betfairgames.com Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m14y

4/1 Davenport, 5/1 Percy´s Pearl, 6/1 Blue Trojan, Master Of The Race, 7/1 Barathea Dreams, Star Magnitude, 8/1 Mina A Salem, 12/1 Freeloader, 14/1 Deeper In Debt, 16/1 Border Edge, 50/1 Domart,

The only statistic of interest to me in this race is about how the 4 and 5 year olds dominate and invariably a younger horse progresses ahead of the older runners . In last years race the oppositie happened as an 8 year old held on from a 4 year old but I think the older winner stole the race and got a big advantage. I would want to stay with a younger horse again this year. I think PERCY'S PEARL could destroy these if David Elsworth has found the key to him but he is very inexperienced and everything points to him needing the run today. BARATHEA DREAMS has been supported in the market but for me he didnt look fit enough to win last time out and although he is a horse that doesnt appear to take a lot of getting fit I just did not see a horse about to win on video last time out. I like both MASTER OF THE RACE and FREELOADER best. MASTER OF THE RACE has a strong chance from Stoute's stable. a 2-2-2-2 record has probably frustrated M Stoute and he was beaten at odds on in maidens on all 3 times he ran as a 3 year old. You have to ask why Stoute has therefore kept him in training. He could easily have sold the horse on but he kept faith in the horse and that may well be rewarded today. What I find interesting is that although a seasonal debutant M Stoute won this race in 1997 and 1999 and has a 2-4 record in the race. Rated 80 in a 0-80 I suspect the horse has far more ability than his handicap mark and perhaps he has now grown up or has been cured of his problems. Something may well have happened to make his trainer retain him in his stable as an 80 rated older handicap. Perhaps we will see that today. MASTER OF THE RACE is a little inexperienced but I think he is quite interesting today and certain to be well handicapped. I also like FREELOADER from Richard Faheys. I backed this horse at Salisbury last year and his form at its best comes in far better races than this and I feel he has had an upgrade in stable from John Hills to Richard Fahey.

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Sandown 7.15 -betfair.com Temple Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) 5f6y

3/1 Reverence, 6/1 Les Arcs, Resplendent Glory, The Tatling, 8/1 Balmont, Eisteddfod, Orientor, 12/1 Indian Maiden, 20/1 Out After Dark, The Trader, 25/1 Godfrey Street, Mecca´s Mate, 150/1 First Order,

I dont like the Temple Stakes because there is no room for mistakes over 5f, the draw always plays a big role and you can never guess how much lost ground horses that have to come up the middle of the track lose to the rail runners. It isnt a great stat race. The only thing they suggest is that you should ignore the runners that came from the Duke Of York Stakes as its a bad trial race. Eistedfod did that. I think clearly the obvious one has to be the Pricewise selection REVERENCE drawn 13 of 13 racing on his best surface and you would like to think he has the pace to lead this field and gain the advantage. I wouldnt say he was value but he comes from one of the best trial races and I think he has a reasonably solid chance and He deserves this chance.

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Sandown 7:50 - betfair.com Brigadier Gerard Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m2f7y

13/8 Notnowcato, 7/4 Bandari, 6/1 Common World, 10/1 Boule D´Or, 12/1 Grand Passion, 14/1 Hattan,

What I find interesting is that younger horses dominate in this race. In the last 20 years of the Brigadier Gerard Stakes there has never been a winner that had raced more than 20 times before. Today we have Bandari 7/4 , Common World , Boule D'or and Grand Passion having had 30 45 34 and 32 races and all of these look old, vulnerable and exposed. In the last 20 years 19 of the 20 winners were aged 4 or 5 and thats a massive statistic. This "younger domiantion" strongly points to NOTNOWCATO and HATTAN as the only 4 year olds in this race. I want ti stay with the unexposed horses. Michael Stoute has won the Brigadier Gerard Stakes 5 times and NOTNOWCATO has much in his favour if he get gets the trip as expected and HATTAN is the subject of glowing reports from Clive Brittain after a tooth abcess problem and could easily win this in a small field if the favourite runs below par and he also comes from the same race the 1998 winner came from before winning this. I would be confident in staying with the 4 year olds and If they dont win then the obvious alternative to me would be the 5 year old Boule D'Or. It has to be one of either NOTNOWCATIO 7/4 who will win if he stays the trip or HATTAN 14/1 who is good enough to take advantage if the favourite doesnt stay .

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Sandown 8:20 - betfair.com Handicap (Class 4) (3yo,0-85) 1m6f

5/2 Daylami Star, 4/1 Gee Dee Nen, 6/1 Souffleur, 7/1 At The Money, Power Of Future, Smart Gal, 8/1 Soho Square, 10/1 Som Tala,

No Selection. I fancied DAYLAMI STAR last time at Chester and I fancy him again today. Nothing wrong with his chance but the issue whether he can give the weight away to promising improvers is the unknown factor. I dont know if he can or not. All I can say here is that I couldnt bet two horses. I cant bet the Henry Cecil trained POWER OF FUTURE as I suspect she wont be experienced enough. I also couldnt bet SOUFFLEUR who I tipped last time out to win a maiden. He won that day but everything about Michael Bells record with similar types suggests to me that he wont find it easy to step in into 0-85 handicap territory. I would personally be against Souffleur and Power Of Future.

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