Happy New Year to Everybody

Today we have a New Month for the System Bets and the first of 2006

Plumpton 12.50 - MY WORLD 11/4

Sending the message now as Time is moving on. I feel its a good message today but non runners and coming in and changing a couple of the races so best to get it out
as racing starts shortly.

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Talking Points

* Yesterdays Summary

I felt computer problems left me short of options on Saturday and the results proved that. The only bet I had was Sir Sandrovitch at 4/1 who was a fast finishing 4th. This looked typical "Sir Sandrovitch" yesterday with a fast finishing burst too late to catch the market leaders and beaten 2 lengths at 7/2. Not a horse you can rely on . He ran well but not as well as I had thought he might.

* Administration issue

I am not sure if this is permenant yet , but at the moment I dont have access to my private e mail address that some of you use (theburg@compuserve.com) after switching computers yesterday. I wont recieve any e mails there if you send them me there so dont expect a reply. Alternate e mail addresses are as they were and should be used in place of the Compuserve one.

Guy@mathematician-betting.co.uk
Mathematician-betting@hotmail.co.uk

* 2006 plans

Bearing in mind the new year I ought to lay out my plans for the service and its direction this year but at the moment I am so tied up with study that I havent got time to be busy. I WILL Post on the message board in the next 1-3 days the issues involved as I see them as they are very complicated and need a lot of thought . Historically we have had some huge changes each year in past State of the Unions, Service restructuring. I have managed so far to keep many of with me during some massive changes and this years issues may be bigger than most. I am not ready in my own mind to commit to any Blueprint but there are important issues that will have to be resolved some time soon and I will point these out in a Board posting shortly.

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Todays Racing

I Am pretty weak at Cheltenham today as the racing looks so Hard and I have no stats for the meeting as it has been
abandoned so many times, and it includes races that have been ran at other tracks like Newcastle and "Unusual races"
that we dont see much of like Limited Handicaps and 12f Bumper races. They have also messed about with the Class
of some of these races like the 1.00pm. I am skipping the meeting.


MONTHLY SYSTEM BETS

Plumpton 12.50 - MY WORLD 11/4


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Plumpton 12.20 - 5/2 Pace Shot, 7/2 Take A Mile, 4/1 Caribou, 7/1 Sole Agent, 8/1 Willy The Slip, 14/1 Camerons Future, Isle De Maurice, Slew Charm, 20/1 Dance Hall Diva, 25/1 Ghaill Force, 50/1 Brendan´s Surprise, Rathcannon Beauty, 100/1 Crystal Ka

There have been 4 renewals of this race. No Compelling angles although its fair to say that 2 of the 4 races went to horses that had raced just once like SOLE AGENT 16/1 and WILLY THE SLIP 18/1 who have both drifted badly this morning. No past winner had ran 3 or more times (as Pace Shot 5/2 and Take a Mile 7/2 have) although thats probably meaningless. I think we havent got a great deal to go on. Certainly on "trainers" the best in this race with 4 year old novices is G L Moore who trains both PACE SHOT the favourite and SOLE AGENT 16/1. He has trained more Juvenile winners in January than most of these put together. He has also had a 16/1 winner yesterday (Heathcote) in a juvenile novice. Maximum respect for this shrewd trainer. What may be in the back of my mind is that Moore may well win with his second string SOLE AGENT Rather than the favourite. Certainly Moores winners in Juvenile Novices all had 1 or 2 runs that year (as SOLE AGENT has) and that may well be a better preperation. The market isnt suggesting this though with the drifting SOLE AGENT.

It may be best left for the well backed CARRIBOU. Oliver Sherwoods Juvenile Hurdlers are better in Febuary but he does have the 4 year olds win in January and he is 1-2 at this track with them. Statistically looking at Sherwoods record had CARRIBOU been running here in Febuary with another run behind him he would be very compellling statistically as Febuary is a better month for Sherwood and his Juvenile Novices peak with 3-4 runs that year and CARRIBOU has 2. I still make him the selection based on the market and some of the other angles in the race but I am not totally excited about his profile .

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Plumpton 12.50 - Evs Le Volfoni, 5/2 My World, 7/1 Priors Dale, Sharp Rigging, 14/1 Jacks Craic, 100/1 Incorporation,

MY WORLD is a Monthly System Bet. Robert Alners Novices are worth Following at Plumpton in January . Overall they have a 6-13 record .

Robert Alners Novice Hurdlers have a 3-6 record

2001 - Uncle Mick Won 12/1
2002 - Millcroft Seaspray 3rd 16/1
2002- Frankie´s River Lost 7/1
2004 - Gatejumper WON 9/1
2005 - The Listener WON 7/2

Robert Alners Novice Chasers have a 3-7 record

1993 - Hops And Pops WON1/8
1997 - Purbeck Cavalier Fell 33/1
1998 - Lets Rumble WON 11/2
2002 - Kingston-Banker -Ideal De Vie -Irisio Lost in the same race
2005 - Silver Inngot WON 4/1

When the Racing Post did their second copy last night they changed LE VOLFONI from 11/8- Evens and pushed out MY WORLD from 2/1-5/2 and SHARP RIGGING from 6/1-7/1. They clearly felt the favourite was entitled to more respect. What it takes to win this race is a mystery. This is a High Class Novice Chase. There have only been 3 of these races ran ever in January and all 3 were ran here at Plumpton. There are no angles that you can really be confident it. How do you judge the 4 year olds in this race like LE VOLFONI ? How can you judge him when he has a double penalty yet gets a weight allowance. I dont fancy PRIORS DALE though as he comes from a Handicap. All 10 that did that lost in this race and I think he should be outclassed by a better type. LE VOLFONI clearly looks the horse to beat but MY WORLD's chance depends on improvement from his debut run, the 8lbs weight allowance he gets from the favourite and the jockeys claim which could be a positive or a negative. As a System Bet this one is a bit "Messy" as ALNER's record with Novices is shared with Hurdlers and Chasers so its diluted in strength. I think the "Bottom line" has to be that MY WORLD is entitled to be a very strongly fancied second facvourite and whether he can actually beat a strong favourite is down to issues that we as yet do not have a clear understanding of and cant predict.


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Plumpton 1.25 - 6/4 What A Vintage, 4/1 New Mischief, Zipalong Lad, 8/1 Cruising Clyde, 12/1 Edgar Wilde, Hambaphambili, 16/1 Tuck In, 50/1 Alderbrook Girl, Fort Royal, Joseph Beuys, River Of Light

2m 5f Novice Hurdle. If you research "seasonal debutants" you find some interesting stats. NEW MISCHIEF 6/1 is a seasonal debutant. You would imagine that in a poor race its not that difficult a thing to do . Thats proven correct as in Class 6 grade the debutants have a 11% Strike rates as you'd expect. However this is a Class 3 race and the Higher in Class you go the Harder it is. Heres an example of just how hard it gets when they step up in grade in Novice Hurdles in January.

2m5f runners first time out in class 6 are 2-17
2m5f runners first time out in class 5 are 2-112
2m5f runners first time out in class 4 are 1-97
2m5f runners first time out in Higher than Class 4 are 0-2

That puts NEW MISCHIEF's chance in perspective and the stats show its highly improbable he will win. The Road Map also confirms the stables debutants are weak and need a run so he is first off the list. I would have to oppose TUCK IN 16/1 as an 8 year old. Horses his age have weak records (1-58) . EDGAR WILDE 12/1 comes from a stable (Richard Rowe) that have little success or commitment in Novice Hurdles. They havent had a winner in over 3 seasons and 50 runners. This is not a track that Oliver Sherwood uses for his novices which puts me off Hambaphambili 12/1. CRUSING CLYDE 12/1 is hard to read.

This does look between WHAT A VINTAGE and ZIPALONG LAD 6/1

The Road Map suggests ZIPALONG LAD 6/1 of Peter Bowens may be interesting

Peter Bowens Novice Hurdlers at Plumpton have a 2-6 record
Peter Bowens Novice Hurdlers at this time of year are 0-15 with less than 2 runs that season.

ZIPALONG LAD has now had 2 runs and is ideally placed to run well. I fully respect the favourite but ZIPALONG LAD may just be better value e/w at 6/1


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Plumpton 1.55 - 4/1 Alph, 7/1 Amnesty, Signature Tune, 8/1 Polished, Silistra, 9/1 Hail The King, Vale De Lobo, 10/1 Ellway Prospect, Hunting Lodge, 11/1 Carly Bay, 12/1 Shaman, 20/1 Bestam

No strong opinions here. Looking at all the trainer records here the best has to be Vic Dartnall who runs POLISHED 10/1. Sadly his record also suggests he may need the run after a 73 day absence.Victor Dartnall has sent 7 horses to Plumpton and 4 of them have won. His record in December and January here is 2-2. That makes

POLISHED quite interesting. Thats the best trainer profile. The worst possibly belongs to Gerry Enright who trains CARLY BAY 11/1. This stable are 1-67 at this track. Paul Nichols VALE DE LOBO is a dilemma. He has been well backed (9/1-6/1) . He Shouldnt really win this as a 4 year old based on the record of 4 year olds in these races and from Paul Nichols 4 year olds in handicap hurdles in January (1-10) and I wouldnt want a horse with his profile myself but he has been supported and this is a top class trainer and it doesnt pay to be too dogmatic in saying what Paul Nichols can and cant achieve. I am ducking the race.

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Plumpton 3.35 - 2/1 Ice Tea, 2/1 Bradley Boy, 7/1 Falcon Beneficial, 8/1 Twist The Facts, 12/1 Cool Society, Safari Adventures, 25/1 Romney Marsh, 33/1 Montanah Jet, Popsleebobross, That Man Fox, 50/1 Spring Chick

Negatives

3/1 Bradley Boy
7/1 Falcon Beneficial
8/1 Twist The Facts

Bumper race. The main statistic in these 2m 2f races after new year is about exposure but its not cast iron enough to be sure about as sample sizes are low. This Plumpton bumper has been ran only once but there have been 32 bumpers over 18f in January. So far no horse with 3 or more runs has won one of these races. There have been 10 horses race that ran 3 or more times before and they have a 0-10 record. In the only running of this race at Plumpton last year the favourite (Prestbury Knight 9/4) had ran 3 times and flopped. Perhaps we are getting to the stage where better runners are coming out and if you havent won a race yet and moved away from Bumpers there is likely to be something to beat you. I also think its relevant that horses that had 3 or more starts in Febuary also had a 0-8 record. Anyhow this eads me to oppose the horses that have ran at least 3 times before. This includes TWIST THE FACTS 8/1 (whose trainer Nick Littmoden has never had a bumper winner before).

Mark Pitman is a trainer that has a poor record with Bumper runners that have already run. 95% of his Bumper runners win on their debuts. Those that raced before have got a poor record. Perhaps thats because he gets them so fit firt time out or he doesnt get any improvement from them. Perhaps its coincidence but it is a poor record and until he proves otherwise a record worth staying with and his BRADLEY BOY is having his 3rd race today and the angles I see make him a negative. He is a well backed 2nd favourite and he could go off favourite, and I am not saying he cant or wont win but I prefer ICE TEA's profile

The next negative is FALCON BENEFECIAL 7/1 . On her positive side her Stable (G L Moore) are in form and have a 2-4 record at Plumpton in Bumper races. I am going to ignore that. Its not the fact she is weak in the betting (7/1-10/1) . Its more to do with her being a 4 year old Filly. In these 18f Bumpers its fair to say that 4 years win plenty but its true that 5 year olds are twice as likely to win as 4 year olds. Sex also matters. Fillies do and can win but 4 year old fillies are a different matter.

There hasnt been a 4 year old filly win any of these races before. Its true that not many tried but you have to wonder why that is. What does it say abouty 4 year old fillies that have only just turned 4 , and are running over serioulsy long distances. If they were any good or well bred then surely they would have been at stud. I cant say enough have failed to suggest 4 year old fillies are "negatives" but I am saying so few have even bothered to try that for me questions their chance and I have to be against her. COOL SOCIETY is the 4th negative. Robert Alner has never had a Bumper winner at this time of year and the record in the last 4 years in Bumpers (1-63) suggests the stable dont use Bumper races with a view to winning. I wont have the Gall to make a 25/1 chance a negative but SAFARI ADVENTURES stable have a poor bumper record away from fontwell and dont win with them at this time of year.

This has to leave ICE TEA 2/1 as the selection. Won well last time in what looked a reasonable race when heavily backed. He has a penalty today (3-10 carried the same penalty he has today) but he looks quite strong and I have negative reasons for all the main dangers son I have to side with him.


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Southwell 12.30 -11/8 Sand Repeal, 4/1 Sonic Anthem, 6/1 Finnegans Rainbow, 14/1 Pearl Oyster, 20/1 City Of Manchester, 33/1 Eidsfoss, Naemi, 50/1 High Window

Interesting and unusual race. When you look at SAND REPEAL your first thought is what can you oppose him with. Then you look at the ratings and grades that SONIC ANTHEM and FINNEGANS RAINBOW come from you start to understand why SAND REPEAL is favourite. Dandy Nichols runs 2 here. He runs SONIC ANTHEM whose sire is unproven on the sand. Statistically you want a horse with at least 4 runs (others 0-21). I cant have the likes of PEARL OYSTER (1 run). I think that FINNEGANS RAINBOW will get placed. M Chapman has won this race before and this modest horse should get outclassed by something but he brings track craft experience and fitness to the party and I think he will grab a place.

Dandy Nichols (Sonic Anthem) also runs CITY OF MANCHESTER 20/1. It would not surprise me if you saw a 33/1-6/1 plunge from Dandy Nicholls stable today with CITY OF MANCHESTER. Once a year early in the sand season he likes to have a huge priced gamble and he could well be trying to mislead. When you consider the favourite is no better than a 0-70 class this wouldnt take much winning and if CITY OF MANCHESTER is cut in the market he may be worth a bet at the second show because he could collapse a long way. I SMELL A Shock result and a Plunge on CITY OF MANCHESTER

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Catterick 12.15 - 5/4 Zeitgeist, 3/1 Serbelloni, 9/1 Ring The Boss, 12/1 Panzer, Step Perfect, 14/1 Dancing Partner, Double Turn, 20/1 Etching, 25/1 Jontys´Lass, 33/1 Cheery Martyr, Fillameena, 50/1 Bally Abbie, Carpe Momentum, Loaded Gun, Mae Moss

This Novice Hurdle looks a Match between ZEITGEIST (4/5) and SERBELLONI (7/2) .

On the one hand you have the "sexy" Graham Wylie-Howard Johnson partnership with ZEITGEIST 4/5 . On the other the far less sexy stable (Micky Hammond) with SERBELLONI 7/2 . Bearing in mind that SERBELLONI has already ran over hurdles and won yet and ZEITGEIST has never ran over them yet you have to wonder what it is that makes ZEITGEIST such a short favourite ? You see that ZEITGEIST is a 90 rated quality Flat horse and the stable won the race last year. Thats fair enough but SERBELLONI was rated 75 on the flat and thats not a world of difference and he has won over Hurdles. It also has to be said that all 12 horses in this race
coming from the Flat lost as well. Interestingly enough when SERBELLONI won on his debut he had a horse called Turnstile in 4th. Turnstile coincidently is a Howard Johnson / Wylie 88 rated Flat handicapper just like Zeitgesit. Turnstile is also favourite today in Division 2 of this race (12.45).

SERBELLONI has already beaten a very similar type to what he faces today and Turnstile (who was well beaten by Serbelloni) has come out and won since. I am not Saying SERBELLONI is a good thing to beat ZEITGEIEST but I cant see why there should be so much difference between their prices and as long as SERBELLONI doesnt take a walk in the betting I would far rather bet him each way against the favourite.

* SERBELLONI is now a NON RUNNER and too late to change the preview

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Catterick 12.45 - 4/7 Turnstile ,11/2 Finland, 10/1 Caulkleys Bank, Industrial Star, 20/1 Rising Tempest, 25/1 Big Bertha, 25/1 That´s Rhythm, 33/1 The Wizard Mul, Tiger King, 66/1 Field Spark, 100/1 Barney, Dolans Bay, Rosina Copper,

Turnstile 10/11 and Cordial 9/2 dont appear to have any serious flaws.

FINLAND 8/1 - The stable have a good record at Catterick but not in Novice Hurdles. The have only had a couple of Novice Hurdle winners (FINLAND was one of them in a Juvenile Hurdle which arguably shouldnt be counted)/. Their Novice Hurdlers are 0-17 at this track.

CAULKLEYS BANK 10/1 - Mick Easterbys Novice Hurdlers at Catterick between December and Febuary are 0-45 and at all times of the year at Catterick when the stables Novice Hurdlers run with less than 4 warm up races they have a 0-46 record.

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Catterick 2.20 - 15/8 Motive, 11/2 Andre Chenier, 8/1 Eborarry, 9/1 Cumbrian Knight, 10/1 Farne Isle, Red Man, 12/1 Coming Again, Diamond Cutter, 14/1 Cha Cha Cha Dancer, 25/1 Lord Baskerville, Royal Glen

Complicated stats. I am ignoring the Catterick ones as the race was abandoned too many times. This is a Class C Handicap Hurdle but it really smells more like a Class D Handicap Hurdle. Here are a few of the more interesting trends

* Races Run - Clearly the exposed horses with more than 20 starts can win but they do score poorly (2-53) -Todays are 9/1 Cumbrian Knight , 10/1 Farne Isle
* Races Run - The best exposure is 7 or 8 career starts But they still only win 25% of these races - Todays are 11/2 Andre Chenier, 14/1 Cha Cha Cha Dancer,
* Seasonal Debutants have a weak 1-37 record - Today Cha Cha Cha Dancer 14/1 is a debutant.
* Age - Not many 4 year olds have tried to win these races in January but all 7 in Class D or better lost and 3 were beaten favourites. Today Eborarry 10/1 is aged 4
* Recent Form - You really want a horse in good form. Those 7th or worse last time are 2-94

I am quite happy to take on the 4 year old EBORARRY . Actually Tim Easterby has a great record in Handicap Hurdles here, and at this time of year and the Road Map points this out. I am taking the view that as these wins were in lower class races and with older horses I am happy to stay with the fact that no 4 year old has won a race like this and look elsewhere for the winner.

If these stats are correct to be used and applied then MOTIVE 15/8 , ANDRE CHENIER 11/2 and RED MAN 18/1 come out best

RED MAN doesnt have a stable with a great record in these circumstances

* The stables Handicap Hurdlers were poor in 2004
* The stables Handicap Hurdlers are weak between December and Febuary
* The stables Handicap Hurdlers at Catterick are 0-7

This does leave the front pair MOTIVE and ANDRE CHENIER.

MOTIVE 7/4 is a top weighted 5 year old. Its fair to say that 5 year olds do win races like these but the vast majority have light weights. In These Handicap Hurdles you have to say (on all tracks) that there is a lightweighted bias . So I had a look to see how the 5 year olds that had big weights got on as MOTIVE has that task today. All in all I found 20 that tried to win as a 5 year old with 11st or more. Only 1 managed to win. That was Motives stablemate Chivalry who managed it at Kelso in 2004. Its not an easy decision to make but this pair do seem to have fewer flaws than the other runners.

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Catterick 3.30 - 11/10 Unexplored, 6/4 Nine De Sivola, 11/2 Brave Rebellion, 33/1 Cash King, Grand Daum, 50/1 Commemoration Day, 66/1 Abbotsford, Chisel, 100/1 Kituhwa, Lade Braes, Team Resdev

Obviously the betting is interesting with only 3 runners looking like they have a chance

With NINE DE SIVOLA should you pay attention to the 7lbs claimer when all 29 previous 7lbs claimers lost in these races and should you pay attention to Ferdy Murphys 0-17 Novice Hurdle record at Catterick. He has actually had 2 winners here in 4 year old only races but none in all aged races. Hard to know what if any relevance should be attached to that. BRAVE REBELLION 9/2 comes from a stable with a solid record in Novice Hurdles . He was a Double Bumper winner before Running 3 times over hurdles . With him its whether he stays this trip . He steps up from 19 furlongs to an extended 25 furlongs. Thats 3/4 of a Mile and its a big step up. Looking at BRAVE REBELLIONS pedigree its a close call. Had this been 27f I would have said he would not stay. This is borderline. His sire has had winners at this trip but they dont have a very good record but this is a track that should help doubtful stayers. I Think (although there is only supposition to go on) that I would risk BRAVE REBELLIONS as he does have track form, and he is well backed in the market and the frame of the race is so enticing and you can bet him each way and he may not even have to stay to place anyway. I think the bets BRAVE REBELLION each way.

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