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Interesting days Racing. As Betfair has been down all morning its been difficult to read markets so keep
your eyes wide open for any market clues that become obvious through the day. 5 races looked into at
Sedgefield . In terms of my best bet of the day I would say thats a split stake bet in the 3.00 race.

I feel Bohemian Brook 6/1 is worth a bet and the important Saver is Compton Dragon at 14/1

Other selections are these

Sedgefield 1.30- Character Building 5/1 worth a small win bet
Sedgefield 2.00 - Major Catch e/w
Sedgefield 3.00 - Bohemian Brook 6/1 "Nap" is worth a bet and the important Saver is Compton Dragon at 14/1
Sedgefield 3.30 - The Joker - Templet - Etoile Russe should provide the winner
Sedgefield 4.30 - Sydney Greenstreet


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Talking Points

* Sunday's Summary

Premier Dane nominated as the days best bet WON at 5/2 having been well backed from 7/2
continuing what has been a very good run. We lost Chepstow so we were just left a few scraps

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* Ante Post - Totesport Trophy Hurdle

Totesport Trophy Hurdle (Handicap) Grade 3 (Class 1) (4yo+) (2m110y)

Acambo (15/2), Al Eile (8/1), Noland (8/1), Penzance (8/1), Studmaster (11/1), Nous Voila (12/1), Chief Yeoman (14/1), Desert Air (16/1), Grand Jete (16/1), Akilak (20/1), Dom DOrgeval (20/1), Escrea (20/1), Arcalis (25/1), Briareus (25/1), Buena Vista (25/1), Distant Prospect (25/1)others 33/1 or more

* 14 renewals and 247 runners
* There doesnt appear any strong age issues but horses aged 10 or more havent won in recent years (0-7)
* All 14 winners ran between 8 and 79 days ago (Others 0-36)
* Horses that were ridden by an Apprentice jockey are 0-60
* Horses at 16/1 and over are just 1-137
* You must be 1-2-3-4 last time out. Those that were not are just 1-81
* Horses coming from Class 3 , 4 or 5 are 0-37
* Horses that had not won in their last 6 races are 0-50
* Horses with 21 or more career starts underperformed (1-29)
* Seasonal debutants are 0-23
* Horses carrying 11st 8lbs or more struggle (0-32)
* The last 12 winners were all rated between 131 and 149
* The last 12 winners all finished 1st or 2nd last time out unless running in the Pierse Hurdle
* 9 of the last 12 winners were in their 1st or 2nd season as hurdlers
* Since 1996 only one winner (Geos) had ran at the previous Cheltenham festival and he ran in a chase

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Todays Racing


Sedgefield 1.30 - Gosforth Decorating And Building Services Novices' Hurdle (Div I) (Class 4) (4yo+) (2m5f110y)

9/4 Balyan, 4/1 Serbelloni, 5/1 Love That Benny, 7/1 Character Building, Stagecoach Diamond, 8/1 Izzyizzenty, 14/1 Step Perfect, 20/1 Kerry´s Blade, Super Revo, 50/1 Moneamon, 66/1 Golden Crest, 150/1 Whatcanyasay,

Selection - CHARACTER BUILDING as a win bet

The key issues for me in this race is a) Who is fit enough and b) Who will handle the conditions well enough. Market weakness and conditions lead me to ignore Sue Smith STAGECOACH DIAMOND (7/1 out to 20/1). She ras ran 2 horses in this race before and both won. She excels over distances like this and with her experienced Novices and the only real question mark would be the 207 day absence and the ground. If you look at the Sires (Classic Cliche) record on soft or heavy ground over jumps it would be a worry that on soft or heavy ground the record is just 2-119 yet on Fast ground the record is 7-60. The "Classic Cliche" record on the flat also suggests he is a fast ground sire just as he was a fast ground horse. With the Dam unraced the ground is a problem for this horse. IZZYIZZENTY (8/1-14/1) ran well last time
but coming here with just 2 career races and a 52 days absence over soft ground and 22f I think that will leave him short of fitness.

LOVE THAT BENNY 5/1 has fitness question marks as well. He has had 6 chances over hurdles and hasnt won yet. His trainers record in Novice Hurdles is dreadful (4 winners from over 200 runners). The fact he has ran just once this season isnt ideal. Certainly horses that ran more had far better strike rates and an absence of 117 days cant be ideal when There have been 63 horses coming into this race that had a 31 day or more absence and none managed to win.

SERBELLONI 3/1 is well fancied in the market but I want to oppose him. Just 1 race and a 64 days absence could leave him short of fitness as well bearing in mind the record in this race of runners with a months absence (0-63). If you look at his trainers record its also illuminating with horses that raced just once before. Since 1997 Micky Hammonds record with Novice Hurdlers on their second ever start is just 1-44 . All 4 he sent to Sedgefield lost and all 25 that ran at longer than 2m 4f lost as well. The favourite BALYAN 5/2 was a quality Flat Horse. He was bought for 200,000 out of John Oxx's stable last October on behalf of Graham Wylie to go Novice Hurdling and that plan was suspended as he raced on the Flat last year. I think he is vulnerable with 1 previous race . His stable sent 10 horses here in Febuary to Novice Hurdles and none have won. He isnt certain to get home today either.

For the Selection I am going against the stats in selecting CHARACTER BUILDING. He comes from a Bumper. Ideally I would have prefered hurdling experience but at a trip like this many Bumper horses win Novice Hurdles and the stats show that when they are prominent in the market they score just as well as hurdlers do. I side with him and overlook that mainly because he has ran 3 times this season and may have a fitness advantage over horses that raced just once like Love That Benny, and over horses that had just 1 career start over hurdles (Balyan, Serbeloni) and have to negotiate a long trip for novices on soft ground. I Think there are grounds for optimism. He has always been very well backed on all Bumper starts. Gambled on his debut he ran well but probably failed for fitness. He was unlucky on his second start when again well backed as he ran into a decent horse (According To Pete) which was no shame. His last run was when beaten in a close finish at Ayr when again well supported. This step up in trip may be very helpful. He could have a fitness edge over the rest of these . The stable are in great form. Crow Wood won yesterday for them. They have had novices win here and the stable have won with novices that come via Bumpers before. I think he has every chance at 6/1 in this race.

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Sedgefield 2.00 - Gosforth Decorating And Building Services Novices' Hurdle (Div II) (Class 4) (4yo+) (2m5f110yds)

10/11 Zeitgeist, 100/30 Major Catch, 7/2 Mr Mischief, 10/1 Oyster Pearl, 16/1 Moscow Blue, 33/1 Saw Doctor, Tartan Classic, 66/1 Grand Daum, Platinum Point, 100/1 Stoneriggs Merc, 150/1 When Your Readyles

Selection - MAJOR CATCH Each Way

I couldnt bet ZEITGEIST at a short price - with soft ground , and just 1 race behind him. He may have potential and a decent stable but its asking a lot at such a short price and the form of his debut win wasnt impressive at all. The horse he beat isnt much good and that was in a photo. He was a class horse on the flat but this isnt the flat and I personally couldnt bet him at a short price. If there is anything solid against him each way I would be looking to oppose him . There has been good money for MR MISCHIEF 100/30 and he is the second favourite and some may see him as the each way steal . I am not so sure myself. I would be worried about the ground for MR MISCHIEF.

Most of his form has a fast ground look to it and the Sire hasnt had a soft ground winner yet from his offspring. Whilst the sire went on all grounds the Dam was a firm ground horse and most of the dams offspring had firm ground biases. He is really hindered by the penalty structure in this race and carries 12st 4lbs. Thats a serious penalty on ground that will be as soft as he can handle. Its hard to see OYSTER PEARL 10/1 being fit enough with just 1 race since 2004 and running badly in that one as well. Peter Bowen trains him and Bowens record with once raced horses is dreadful between October and April and he is an unlikely winner for me. This then leaves just the 3rd favourite MAJOR CATCH 9/2. I thought MAJOR CATCH Ran well enough last time out to be given a decent chance in this race. He hasnt been staying 3 miles in many of his races and he has ran far more times than the favourite Zeitgeist, in a race that has rewarded experience over
inexperience in the past. The main concern is the recent downgrade of stable. He has been running well for his new stable but I would be concerned why he was let go by a better yard. I forgave him that last time and selected him at leicester and he ran an excellent race . I would not say he was "cant be out of the frame" material but I think he has done enough to merit being the selection in light of his fitness and experience advantage and getting a stone in weight from Mr Mischief on ground Mr Mischief may not like anyway. MAJOR CATCH each way is the selection.

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Sedgefield 3.00 - Bet365 Call 08000 322 365 Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+,0-90) 2m1f

9/2 Bohemian Brook, 5/1 Munaawesh, 11/2 Acceleration, 6/1 West Hill, 7/1 Sarobar, 10/1 Quarry Island, 14/1 Compton Dragon, 16/1 Filey Flyer, That´s Racing, 20/1 Batto, 25/1 Faraway Echo, Mae Moss, 33/1 Barney, First Grey, Kituhwa

Selection - BOHEMIAN BROOK with a saver on COMPTON DRAGON


ACCELERATION 11/2 and SAROBAR 7/1 are the two most exposed horses in this race with 22 and 28 runs. Exposed horses with over 20 starts muct be opposed. If you take ALL Novice Handicaps in Febuary at Any Trip, Any Track, Any Class you wont find an exposed winner. Thats a really illuminating statistic. All 41 of the exposed runners were beaten and the record in January isnt much better (1-45). I would have to look elsewhere. I do think thats a seriously good statistic. There have been 171 Novice Handicaps and 171 winners had fewer than 21 career starts. Plenty of Ground issues here as well. ACCELERATION may not appreciate soft ground . More about the ground later. SAROBAR 7/1 already too exposed winning would be breaking the weight record in this race as all 18 horses with 11st 10lbs or more lost.

I Dont fancy WEST HILL 6/1 for these reasons

* The Stable have a poor 1-58 record in Novice Handicap Hurdles
* The Soft ground looks against him as he has no soft ground form
* The Sire and Dam were fast ground horses and the Sire had a far better fast ground strike rate on the flat
* He may need further if these Sire distance stats relevant
* Sire (Gone West) record at 2m 3f or less is 1-71
* Sire (Gone West) record at 2m 4f or more is 7-59

I Dont fancy MUNAAWESH 5/1 for these reasons

* The trainer has never had a winner before in a 0-10 career record
* The Horse has ran 38 times in all codes and has yet to win
* He comes from a Selling race and all 18 horses that did that in this race lost

I Dont fancy FILEY FLYER 16/1 for these reasons

* The ground looks against him on pedigree
* The Sire was a Firm ground horse and the Dam needed it like a Road
* The Sires National Hunt record on ground softer than good is 0-81

QUARRY ISLAND 10/1 Looks hard to fancy. One piece of form as a juvenile but has not shown anything like the form you would imagine

she would need to in order to win this recently. Beaten a long way at 20/1 in a maiden hurdle last time. She looks ungenuine. She is dropping down the weights and her stable do have a reasonable record in Novice Handicap hurdles

Shortlist

COMPTON DRAGON 12/1 hasnt looked much so far in 4 hurdle starts but this shrewd stable did win this race in 2003 and the horse did have a lot of ability on the flat. He is the perfect age for the race (7) like 2 of the last 3 winners and with 4 career starts ideally unexposed and I think he is a serious runner assuming he is fancied. SEEN MARKET SUPPORT as well

9/2 BOHEMIAN BROOK

What we have here is a fascinating profile. The horse can not be rated on his 3 runs so far in Novice Hurdles. Basically he has run 3 times and been beaten Miles but that has achieved him a Low Handicap Mark of only 82. You have to also bear in mind the fact he is from a very strong stable, and he is well bred. The key to his chance is looking at Howard Johnsons record in these circumstances and its quite revealing. The Following is the record since 1999 from this stable in Novice Handicap Hurdles .

Howard Johnsons record since 1999 in Novice Handicap Hurdles when the horse has ran only 3 times before in Novice Hurdles

* The stable have ran 8 horses and have had 4 winners a second and a 4th

Ballybough Rasher Lost (1999)
Big Matt WON 4/1 (1999)
Native Runner Lost 13/2 (2000)
Another Dude 2nd 12/1 (2002)
Covent Garden WON 11/8 (2002)
Deja Vu WON 13/2 (2004)
Kinburn WON 15/8 (2004)
Haadef 4th 9/2 (2005)

If you are worried that BOHEMIAN BROOK was beaten Miles last time out you should consider that all 4 of the above winners were all beaten over 30 lengths on their previous start before winning their Novice Handicap Hurdle on their 4th career start.

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Sedgefield 3.30 - Racecourse Video Services Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+,0-110) 2m1f

7/2 North Landing, 4/1 George Stubbs, 5/1 The Joker, 6/1 Bollin Thomas, Charlie Tango, 8/1 Etoile Russe, Templet, 10/1 Rock Back

Selection - This looks between The Joker - Templet - Etoile Russe

Not sure I can sort this really as the race revolves around THE JOKER the Irish raider. On first glance I could easily say that THE JOKER has to be opposed as he has just been beaten 36 lengths in his first race for 27 months and wont be fit enough today and may have had a serious injury . However the horse does have a good record when Fresh and the Racing Post correctly point out that he has won on 3 of the 5 times he has come to England to race. There is also a potential class issue. He has won in far better class than this and there is a class gap between him and the rest of the runners highlighted by the fact he has 7lbs more weight than any other runner which I feel is a good sign. I watched his last run at Kelso. It was a miles better race than this and he ran like a non trier to me hardly ever touched with the whip
and running a really eye catching race. THE JOKER is probably very well handicapped and running in a race he can easily win and its interesting his connections have given him an entry in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. His performance today will determine the result as he has the class to destroy these runners if at his best. How fit he is though and how he is after a possible injury could be the question marks. I Couldnt bet several of these. I Dont like GEORGE STUBBS or CHARLIE TANGO on the ground. With GEORGE STUBBS His biggest problem will be the ground and that may stop him winning. His Stable won this race in 1998/99 (Fatehalkhair) but all his form has been on a sound surface. With CHARLIE TANGO I am far from convince he wants the ground as bad as this despite the record showing some soft ground form. I dont like BOLLIN THOMAS 6/1. This is probably the worst time of year for the stable and their handicappers and I see little encouragement today. Without a Major gamble I dont see ROCK BACK as having done enough yet to win. With the favourite NORTH LANDING he looks about this sort of standard but I am not convinced about either trip or ground and he is vulnerable if any of my 3 shortlisted horses run very well.

The 3 horses I like are THE JOKER , TEMPLET and ETOILE RUSSE.

I have already discussed the issues with The Joker. I also think TEMPLET is a potential winner. He is a bit of a Dog but he ran really well over hurdles last time out in a far better race and he hasnt done much wrong over hurdles and he isnt out of this at all on a track he has ran well on before. Finally Patrick Haslams ETOILE RUSSE must be considered as a 4 year old off bottom weight. The last and only time Haslam ran a 4 year old with 3 races in a Handicap Hurdle it won . I would expect one of these 3 horses to provide the winner today.

No strong opinions which of the 3 runners is best as THE JOKER Will either win or run badly. TEMPLET Will either run a great race or flatter yet again and Haslams ETOILE RUSSE will either be thrown in off his weight or find this too tough for an inexperienced horse. None of the 3 are guaranteed to run to their best but if any of them do then they will take some stopping.

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Sedgefield 4.30 - John Smith's Extra Smooth Maiden National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional Jockeys/Amateur Riders) (Class 6) (4-6yo) 2m1f

5/2 Sydney Greenstreet, 9/2 Top Dressing, 6/1 Sybarite Chief, 7/1 Sams Lad, 9/1 Still Solvent, Zarbeau, 12/1 Stagecoach Opal, The Gleaner, 14/1 Pennybid, Sales Flow, 33/1 Larry The Tiger, 40/1 King Daniel, 50/1 Justwhateverulike, Roman Gypsy,

Selection - SYDNEY GREENSHEET

NEGATIVE Stable record in Bumpers

Top Dressing - Stable have a 0-16 record at Sedgefield in bumpers
Top Dressing - Stable 0-3 in Bumpers at Sedgefield in Febuary
Top Dressing - Stables record in Bumpers at 17f are 1-32

Zarbeau - Stable are 0-14 at Sedgefield in Bumpers
Zarbeau - Stable have a 1-10 record with unraced horses in Maiden Bumpers

Still Solvent - Stable have a poor 1-66 Bumper record but the winner was at Sedgefield
The Gleaner - Solid overall Bumper record (11%) and 3-20 at Sedgefield but a poor record in Febuary (1-38)
Pennybid - Stable are 0-8 in Bumpers


POSITIVE Stable record in Bumpers

Sybarite Chief - Stable have a 17% Bumper strike rate and are 1-2 at Sedgefield
Sybarite Chief - Stable have a 3-15 record in Febuary and a solid overall record
Sybarite Chief - Stable have a 3-8 record in Maiden Bumpers

Sydney Greenstreet - Stable have an 18% strike rate in Bumpers
Sydney Greenstreet - Only Sedgefield bumper runner lost
Sydney Greenstreet - Stable record att 17f is 7-25
Sydney Greenstreet - Stable record in Maiden Bumper 4-15

Sams Lad - Stable have a 1-3 Bumper record in England


Conclusions

I Have 3 positive trainer records here in Sybarite Chief 8/1 , Sams Lad 13/2 and Sydney Greensteet 5/2. The racing Post state " provided he handles this softer ground, there could be more to come from SYBARITE CHIEF" but I cant accept that argument as I cant see him handling the ground being by notorious fast ground sire Sinndar out of a Dam that never ran on soft ground. I think the fact SYDNEY GREENSHEET Has ran ran twice and comes from a stable that do excel in these sorts of races he has to be the selection.

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