Todays Racing


Possibly the Hardest days racing for weeks and Simply Not a betting day. Just to Clarify whats Happening over the next couple of days and the weekened as I feel we have to be organised as its very busy.


Wednesday's Message (Today)

No Bet in todays Mail
This contains statistics for 3 Saturday races (Lanzarote , Pierse Hurdle and Warwick Classic Chase)
Quick look at a couple of Newbury races and an overview of the 1.55 at Newbury where Tacin 10/1
has a nice profile but this is not a day for betting hard.

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Thursdays Message - This will be an Account Day

Fridays Message - This will be an Account Day

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Saturdays Message

Saturday is Unlikely to provide a Bet in Saturdays Mail but I am very keen to advise an Account Bet
in the Warwick Classic Chase . That bet could come on Saturday but it could also come on Friday or
Thursday depending on how the race shapes up.

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Talking Points


* Yesterdays Summary

The each way double on Coassack Dancer 8/1 and The Dark Lord 6/1 lost. Cosssack Dancer ran a great race going down in a photo but The Dark Lord seemed unsteady and unsure at a lot of his fences and didnt run with any confidence.

* ANTE POST

1) Pierse Hurdle - Sunday at Leopardstown
2) Lanzarote Hurdle - Carlisle Saturday
3) Warwick Classic Chase - Warwick Saturday


1)PIERSE HURDLE - Sunday Leopardstown

Victram (5/1), Escrea (6/1), No Where To Hyde (8/1), Fortmassini (10/1), Studmaster (12/1), Arch Rebel (14/1), Bon Temps Rouler (16/1), Dalton (16/1), Kilbeggan Lad (16/1), Power Elite (16/1), Skys The Limit (16/1), Tiger Cry (16/1), Adamant Approach (20/1), Cherub (20/1), Lenrey (20/1), Pom Flyer (20/1), Rocket Ship (20/1), Allez Petit Luis (25/1), Barati (25/1), Briareus (25/1), County Final (25/1), Levitator (25/1), Loughanelteen (25/1), Majlis (25/1), Silk Screen (25/1) -

This race has been dominated by lightly raced hurdlers in the lower half of the weights who have solid handicap form. Lightly Raced Types seem to excel in this race. You do not want to be looking for an exposed performer who just wins in his turn. Look for a horse that can improve past his Handicap mark. Whilst lightly raced and unexposed horses are favoured, you do seem to need at least some experience in Handicaps or against experienced horses.

Pierse Hurdle -Since 1994 There have been 62 horses that were aged 8 and over who tried to win this race and Only 1 managed to win.
Pierse Hurdle -The last 12 winners were all rated at least 105
Pierse Hurdle -Lightweights are favoured. Since 1994 , 12 of the Last 13 winners Carried less than 11st 1lb
Pierse Hurdle -The Last 14 winners had all ran in a handicap that season
Pierse Hurdle -11 of the Last 13 winners had all Raced fewer than ten times over hurdles.
Pierse Hurdle -12 of the Last 13 winners were in their 1st or 2nd season as Hurdlers or very lightly raced
Pierse Hurdle -11 of the Last 13 winners of this race finished 1st or 2nd on their latest racecourse start.
Pierse Hurdle -12 of the Last 13 winners were Distance Winners
Pierse Hurdle - 6 of the Last 13 winners came from the 2m Fairyhouse handicap at the end of November as did last years runner up
Pierse Hurdle - 3 of the last 4 winners won this race after long absences

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2) Lanzarote Hurdle - Carlisle Saturday

Carlisle 2.45 -Totesport Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Class 2) (4yo+,0-140) 2m1f

* Usually run at Kempton over 2 Miles - This year its run over 2m 1f at Carlisle

Lanzarote Hurdle -13 renewals and 142 runners
Lanzarote Hurdle - Avoid Horses with 21 or more career races as they may be too exposed (0-15)
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses that ran once this season are best avoided (1-19)
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses coming from Newbury (4-8) are interesting
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses coming from Sandown (0-12) or Cheltenham (0-11) less so
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses aged 8 and over struggle (0-32)
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses aged 5 and 6 are best (10-70) and Horses aged 5-6-7 have dominated
Lanzarote Hurdle - Second season Hurdlers are best
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses at 16/1 and over struggle (1-50)
Lanzarote Hurdle - You want to be 1-2-3 last time out or to have failed to finish. Horses that did neither struggled (1-51)
Lanzarote Hurdle - Horses from Novice Handicaps are interesting (3-11)
Lanzarote Hurdle - The last 10 winners were all rated at least 115 (124-140 ideal)

* The Weights are Out now but there is no Market at this stage
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3) Warwick Classic Chase - Warwick Saturday

Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - 10 renewals and 119 runners
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - You Must avoid every horse that ran in the Welsh National recovery time
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - The last 2 winners came from Cheltenham within the last 15 days
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Both 6 year olds lost
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Horses that ran within 15 days are best (6-26)
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase -All 10 Fillies lost
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Horses that came from a Grade 3 chase last time have a 0-23 record
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Horses that ran at 3m or shorter last time are 0-27
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-40
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - Horses carrying over 11st are 0-39
Warwick 3.00 - Totesport Classic Chase - The Record of horses Carrying 11st + is 4 9 2 PU 3 6 F 3 4 4 5 PU REF PU PU PU PU 6 5 F F PU PU

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Newbury 12.45 - 11/4 Prize Fighter, 9/2 Royals Darling, 7/1 Detroit City, Shiny Thing, 8/1 Spear Thistle, 10/1 Akram, 16/1 Jack Rolfe, Victorias Groom, 20/1 Ball Boy, Oakley Absolute, 25/1 Brave Hiawatha, Ellerslie Tom, Love Affair, 50/1 Estate, Globalized, Innpursuit, Kryena, 66/1 Danzare, Ihuru, 100/1 Maya´s Prince, 200/1 Desert Moonbeam, Form And Beauty, Kofi, Son Of Bathwick



* This race has been run 5 times at Newbury
* Horses that raced once that season had a 0-17 record - 6/1 Detroit City, Shiny Thing,
* All 5 winners were either unraced (3) or ran over a month ago (2)
* Both horses carrying 11st 5lbs Won
* Jonjo O Neill - 11/4 Prize Fighter - Record fine in Juvenile Novices. He is 0-8 at Newbury and 0-5 in this race but few were fancied
* Nicky Henderson - 9/2 Royals Darling - Strong Juvenile record this time of year and 5-9 when having 2 + races
* Phillip Hobbs - 7/1 Detroit City - His "Once raced" Juveniles are 2-28

Wide open because of the big field. Statistically there is a lot to like about ROYALS DARLING and I prefer him to Prize Fighter. I feel the likes of Detroit City and Shiny Thing have difficult tasks and whilst there are so many unratable dark horses in the race the clearest profile comes from ROYALS DARLING

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Newbury 1.20 - 6/4 Justified, 5/2 Cornish Sett, 11/4 Celtic Son, 11/2 Hors La Loi Iii, 50/1 Perfect Liaison, 200/1 Goldseam

* There are very few Class C Novice Chases at this trip. Only 2 in January and only 29 since 1993 at any time of the year
* CELTIC SON (Martin Pipe) Comes from a Class 2 race and drops in class. The record of horses coming from Class 2 is excellent (9-17)

* Martin Pipes record in Class C Novice Chases is
a) Overall record of 34%
b) Record in January is 8-14 (57%)
c) Record at Newbury 3-8
* Paul Nichols (Cornish Sett 5/2, Hors La Loi Iii ) has a 25% record in Class C chases but in January (1-10) and at Newbury (2-12) modest

Justified will be hard to beat but CELTIC SON 4/1 has a sound chance

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Newbury 1.55 - 4/1 Champion´s Day, 5/1 Wogan, 11/2 Napoleon, 7/1 Adventurist, Odiham, Shining Strand, 10/1 Killenaule, 14/1 Grenoli, 20/1 Darn Good, 25/1 Mrs Fizziwig, 33/1 Clanrye, Irish Raptor, Teal Saqqara, 50/1 Christon Cane, Lord Ryeford, 66/1 Harbour Rock, 100/1 Country Rally, Musicalish

* 2m 3f Novice Hurdle. There has only been 6 of these run before in January in this Class and 4 were at Newbury.
* There are very few meaningful trends
* Horses with 1st 5lbs (Penalty carriers) had a 2-2 record (11/2 Napoleon, 7/1 Shining Strand)
* Personaly I would have to look away from Wogan 4/1 based on his 1 race this season

I am traditionally against "once racers" in many races. If you look at all Novice Hurdles in January over this trip you find -

a) In this Newbury race a "once racer" has won (Turtle Soup2002) but he was a class 140 rated Hurdler at best
b) In all 36 Novice Hurdles at this trip in January in Class D or higher "Once raced" horses are only 1-36 and all 3 that started fav lost
c) In all 36 Novice Hurdles at this trip in January Horses that raced once had a very poor 7-228 record (3%) and 17 beaten favourites
d) When Nicky Henderson has tried it he only has a 1-10 record and all 3 favourites he had lost

Wogan the well backed favourite has Flaws in my view

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Newbury 2.25 - 5/1 Admiral Peary, 6/1 Magic Of Sydney, Sonevafushi, 7/1 Bee An Bee, 8/1 Blunham Hill, Melford, 9/1 Dungarvans Choice, 10/1 Lord Seamus, 12/1 Tacin, 14/1 Trust Fund, 16/1 Jaoka Du Gord, Lord Archie, 100/1 Redde


TACING is the hopeful selection.


* This race has been run only 3 times at Newbury but horses with 7 or 8 career starts had a 3-4 record and won every renewal

* TACIN 12/1 and TRUST FUND 14/1 have 7-8 starts today
* All 3 Newbury runners ran within 31 days


5/1 Admiral Peary

* Has no Handicap form and all 13 winners of identical races had
* Possibly best when Fresh
* Stable 0-5 at Newbury with Handicap Chasers
* Quite old for a switch to fencing
* Chase rating 6lbs higher than Hurdle rating and that doesnt appear justified yet

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6/1 Magic Of Sydney
* Horse has had training problems
* Won a 0-110 and now up in class to a 0-125
* Stable are 0-10 at Newbury with Handicap Chasers

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6/1 Sonevafushi
* I dislike his lack of handicap form
* Hasnt won for 2 years
* He smells like a small field horse to me

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7/1 Bee An Bee

* Capable of winning off this mark and loves the track
* Has to be produced late and is hard to win with
* Heavy rain would leave him vulnerable
* 5th in the Kim Muir at cheltenham and 3lbs higher now so could be being laid out for that

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8/1 Blunham Hill

* Won a 0-107 and 0-108 off marks of 91 and 94 and now in a 0-125 off 101 so a lot harder task today.
* Wants as much rain as possible
* I agree with the post he needs a career best to win

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8/1 Melford

* Needs this step up to 3 miles
* Wouldnt want a lot of rain as "Good" ground is the key to him
* Didnt progresss for Henrietta Knight last season and Joined C Mann
* Mann won with him first time out at Haydock
* Big concerns are in the last 2 years after winning in December 2003 he went backwards and in Dec 2004 after a win he did the same
* Now he has won in October 2005 will be regress again especially as his last race was a average at best

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9/1 Dungarvans Choice
* Nice quality stayer who loves soft ground
* Not a hard horse to get fit so 1 run this year should be fine and has won on 2nd yearly start before
* Looks the type to land a nice handicap when conditions are right

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10/1 Lord Seamus

* 7lbs higher than his last winning mark
* Both career wins came in spring
" Trainer states " Needs a right-handed, galloping track and fast ground" and he gets neither here

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12/1 Tacin

* Ideally exposed with 8 starts
* Ex Irish and although injury prone showed eye catching hurdles form
* Trainer states "well handicapped off 114 " yet today just off 111
* Trainer states " He was my big hope and he’s working tremendous now.”
* Stable in form
* Fragile type who has had a long tern injury
* Market confidence would demand he is the selection in my view

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14/1 Trust Fund

* Ideally exposed with 8 starts (ec Pointer)
* Every chance on 3m Uttoxeter form last April
* Ground has to be hock deap at this trip
* If settled and jumping well he is a serious runner

Conclusion

This is totally wide open but TACIN 10/1 is an extremely tentative selection
based mainly on his Unexposure but this is not a race I would feel confident about.
If there is a total shock it could come from Trust Fund at 25/1.


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Newbury 4.05 - 3/1 Secret Moment, 7/2 Forest Emerald, 5/1 Fleur Des Pres, Pressgang, 12/1 Crofters Lad, Otantique, 14/1 Gentle John, 25/1

Lord Raffles, Trooper Lee, 33/1 Hakumatata, Handel With Care, Palaver, Stingray, 50/1 Auburn Grey, Kilmeena Magic, 100/1 La Bonne Vie, Rosenfirth

* Bumper Race

* FOREST EMERALD 7/2 - Stable are weak in Bumpers on a Grade 1 track (1-45) and in Class E (0-10) and in January (0-30)
* FLEUR DES PRES 5/1 - Stable bumper runners are 0-5 at Newbury , 0-2 in 4 year old races and 1-32 between Dec and Feb
* CROFTERS LAD - The stable are 0-6 here in Bumpers

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