Today I am concentrating on just one race at Sandown in the 4.55 race. I think I have this race right today. I suggest you bet HUCKSTER at 11/4 and saver on HEGARTY at 7/1. This pair will be my only bets today and much as I was prepared to play down today as garbage I do actually fancy this race a lot and I think you should bet this pair.

Saturdays Plans - There will be a Saturday Message tomorrow as Sunday doesnt offer us much.

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Talking Points

* Cheltenham Statistics -

Todays race is the County Hurdle (below)

* Wednesday's Summary

BILLYANDI Won at 6/1 for us (Backed from 8/1) getting us back on the right track and that was a lovely result after a few days without anything special. SUPREME CATCH ran a great race to be 2nd at 9/1 in the other main race of the day. I didnt watch that race. Would have been unbelievable had he landed the double but he didnt and I was surprised the winner won. The Other Selections were an each way double where both horses placed and that made a small profit.

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* Ante Post - Cheltenham Festival

Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) 2m 1f

Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle -12 renewals and 294 runners
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses with less than 3 runs this season were 0-95
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses with 8 or more runs this season were 0-27
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses that were beaten 8 or more lengths last time out were 2-167
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses that were not 1-2-3-4 last time out were just 2-130
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses that had not ran within 48 days are just 1-79
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses aged 8 and above should be avoided (2-69) (one was a Champion Hurdler)
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - 35 of the last 44 renewals went to horses aged 5 or 6
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses coming from a Grade 1/Grade 2 race last time out are 0-38.
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses with 11st 8lbs or more were just 1-21 and only 1 has won since 1960
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle -27 of the last 31 winners carried 11st or less but 3 of those wins came post 1998
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Horses that were 1st/2nd last time do well (8-97)
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - Irish Trainers are 1-48

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Todays Racing


Little to Say today. Concentrating on just the one race at Sandown

Today you find yourself drawn into contemplating each way doubles and I used to love these bets and we had one yesterday with 2 placed runners but they are not as good a bets as I Once thought and you can find yourself betting and tipping horses that you dont really fancy just because you think they cant be unplaced and I want to try and get away from that style of analysis as I dont think they have contribued to my overall profit that much and these are often races that are targetted for skullduggery. Today is littered with potential each way options in races that are dominated by 2 or 3 horses in the betting. PRINCE AZZURRO (1.40) is one of these apparant "safe" each way double bets. The 2.00 at Sandown is another. I could easily go down that route today and "Fluke" a double but whilst these bets look rock solid I dont want to pretend I fancy horses for any other reason than the market and I am swerving thesen bets today. I thought about horses like MOORLANDS AGAIN 5/2 at Warwick (3.55) and JACKS CRAIC (Sandown 2.35) as possible bets but in the end there was only 1 horse that I really liked today and that runs at Sandown in the 4.55 race and thats where I am concentrating today.


Sandown 4:55 -Foundation Developments Ltd Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (4yo+,0-115) 2m110y

9/4 Huckster, 5/2 Xamborough, 4/1 Sir Brastias, 9/2 Hegarty, 12/1 Danse Macabre, 16/1 Visibility,


I think Venetia Williams will have laid out HUCKSTER to win this as He is my best bet of the day. My Main Danger is HEGARTY and I am going to advise a saver on him as I think there are good grounds and with the 3/1 and 8/1 prices I feel we still have great scope for profit.

This little race has been ran 8 times before and its always been won by a lightly raced improving horse thats invariably come via Novice company and HUCKSTER fits that bill. In this race all 31 horses that had ran 13 or more times before lost . This included 3 beaten favourites and several other fancied runners. In todays race we have exposed horses like DANSE MACABRE 5/1 (24 Races) and VISIBILITY 14/1 (20 Races) and I am keen to look away from horses like these. You can give DANSE MACABRE a chance on a couple of runs but his overall record is poor, he has trip issues and potential breathing problems and for saying he has a 1-24 record and rated just 98 it isnt going to take a great horse to beat him.

Progressive horses have dominated this and VISABILITY isnt a progressive looking horse. In a small field you can make a case for anything but as he isnt the right type . I dont like Brendan Powells XAMBOROUGH much. I said in yesterdays message that the offspring of Starborough had a poor record when discussing the record of Fabulous Jet. That loser made his overall record over the jumps 1-80 and that winner was very lucky and its not a Sire I like. I wouldnt use that as the sole reason for not fancying him. He dissapointed on soft ground 2 runs ago, yet ran better on faster ground last time and for a horse that has fast ground flat wins to his name in France there could be a problem on this ground. I also want to oppose him because of his age. He is a 5 year old and the other 5 runners are all seven year olds. In the history of this race 7 year olds have dominated and 5 year olds had a 0-16 record. The only 7 year old in last years race was a 50/1 chance so they could hardly win the 2005 renewal but horses aged 7 won the 3 previous renewals and they dominate in the race. I want to oppose 5 year olds like XAMBOROUGH . Only 3 of the 16 that lost managed to place and the majority ran well below market expectation. I want to oppose SIR BRASITAS as well at 6/1. I think the ground
will beat him. His flat form looks like the form of a fast ground horse. His only 2 wins came on fast ground. The Sire and Dam were both fast ground horses. They both flopped on every occasion that they faced soft ground. If you look at the sire record for Shaamit the Sire His record with horses racing on softer than good ground is just 1 winner from 55 that tried yet on Good to firm ground he has a 7-48 record. On basic maths (albeit controversial) he is 7 times more likely to have a fast ground winner than a soft ground one. The Sires record on the flat is also dominated by fast ground wins and he is just 1-30 on the flat on ground softer than good. I fear for SIR BRASITAS in todays conditions.

HEGARTY 8/1 is my "Saver". Its not so much that I fancy him. You can forgive him his last run as he hadnt ran for 16 months. He my be either a horse thats not going to recapture his form after a long absence through injury , or a horse thats capable of reproducing that form. The market suggests he wont win (9/2 in the Paper, 8/1 on Betfair) but I want him on my side.This is because he is a JP Mc Manus - Jonjo ONeill horse and ONeill has sent 2 horses to this race and Both won in 2002 and 2003 and he has won with a similar type. When BORANI Won this race in 2002 he was a horse that had strange coincidences to HEGARTY. That year BORANI had a 16 months absence and ran badly in 1 comeback race. This year HEGARTY has had a 16 month lay off and comes here with 1 comeback race. For me HEGARTY has to be "saved" on with a profile like that in such a small field race when there are good negatives for so many runners.

HUCKSTER 3/1 is the selection . Its interesting when discussing Hegarty to see that Jonjo has a 2-2 record in this race as Veneia Williams who trains this horse also has a 2-2 record in this race. She won it in 1998 and 2004 and her last winner was a similar type to HUCKSTER as he came from a Novice Hurdle. In this race there are no problems with high weighted horses, horses that come from Novice events or lightly raced horses at all. This is a south African horse. His owners are a very shrewd team headed by Peter Deal who has a policy of buying South African horses to race over jumps. The horse won a Doncaster Novice Hurdle last time out. Its true the form looks nothing special but that isnt his fault, he could do
no more than win and this is only a 0-112 Handicap Hurdle. He was a 6 time winner in South Africa (4 times on soft ground) and he looks like a horse thats been laid out for this race. Its a race thats been won many times by similar types and horses coming via an absence and its a race that Venetia Williams has a 100% record in and likes to win. Its easy to assume that his Novice win is weak and doesnt entitle him to win this off topweight but I disagree. He only has 5 opponents. Some are out of form. One will hate the ground. Several are too exposed and we have the saver anyway. I think he has been laid out to win a race the stable think he can and he is the selection.

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