1 Account Bet

Salisbury 3.05

(11) LOYAL ROYAL

£15 EACH WAY

Expect the horse to be about 4/1 . I think He is a fair price to win his maiden this afternoon. I just prefered the each way single rather than a win bet and a saver on his main rival (You Call That Art) . I will be disspointed if he cant win today and beat some unfit rivals. It is only a small stake again. I have to do this as I am not flowing and My Timing is still not right. Messages late. Not able to write All I want to at the moment. I am pretty sure its the effect of the Flat Book and not having adjusted to it yet which has prolonged the study time. I really have to get my act together soon and manage my Time a little better. It will come right. I have been here several times before and its a matter of tinkering with a few things. The moment I get that Timing right I will be staking a lot harder.

TOMORROWS MESSAGE WILL BE AT 4PM FOR THE NIGHT RACING


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STAKED RACES


Salisbury 3:05 - totecourse to course Maiden Stakes (Class 4) (3yo+) 6f

7/2 Always Emirates, 4/1 You Call That Art, 9/2 Cabriole, 5/1 Greek Renaissance, 6/1 Loyal Royal, 16/1 Art Man, Bare Rambler, Good Turn, 20/1 John Bratby, Rogue, 25/1 Dream Forest, Highland Belle, 33/1 Catabound, 50/1 Serene Dancer, 66/1 Diamond World, 100/1 Melmott, Stingray,

Selection - LOYAL ROYAL Each Way

LOYAL ROYAL is the one to be on in this race. There look to be 5 runners with legitimate claims and I would prefer 2 of these runners. I want to select David Elsworth's LOYAL ROYAL 9/2 as the best bet and YOU CALL ME THAT 11/2 as my main danger. From the 5 runners with chances I reject the other 3 mail runners Always Emirates, Greek Renaissance and Cabriole. There has to be an element of guessing in this race. Reasons for selections and for negatives are partly based on assumptions. I decided to oppose Always Emirates because the stables 4 runners yesterday ran dreadfully and we dont know if they are anywhere near in form. I oppose Cabriole as an unraced filly from a stable (Henry Cecil) going backwards much as Cecil has won this race before. One interesting fact about CABRIOLE is that her mother (Arabseque) won this race by 5 lengths 3 years ago. Thats a good pointer to Cecils horse but it has to be said that Arabseque had ran 3 times before and had a huge fitness advantage that CABRIOLE doesnt enjoy today. I reject Marcus Tregonnings GREEK RENAISSANCE simply down to a remark he made some time ago when he said this horse will be worth following once he was handicapped. If that is the
genuine aim then there is a massive doubt that he is here to do his best. The plans may have been changed and he may bolt up but that comment should set serious alarm bells off.

With LOYAL ROYAL and YOU CALL THAT ART You have 2 horses that came from Newmarket last time out and thats the best trial track for this race. 6 recent winners came from Newmarket to win this race and I am very happy with these 2 horses from the shortlist of 5 horses that look to provide the winner. I liked YOU CALL THAT ART on video. She looked to have won the Fillies maiden she ran in at Newmarket over 7f but clearly didnt stay fading into 5th. The drop in trip to 6f looks perfect and the 4th (ADVENTURESS ) has just come out and hacked up in a maiden. I have no problem with Hannons record with similar fillies and Hannon has won 6 seperate Maiden races in May at Salisbury over this trip including twice winning this race. David Elsworth also has a good record under these circumstances and LOYAL ROYAL ran a nice race at Newmarket in the Alex Scott Maiden Stakes. That looks better form and may have been a stronger race than the Fillies Maiden. David Elsworths runners have been badly needing their first race and I expect LOYAL ROYAL to strip much fitter today. Both YOU CALL THAT ART and LOYAL ROYAL drop back from 7f trips which is ideal. 10 of the 24 Salisbury maiden winners at 6f in May did just that. I
would be pretty confident that one of these 2 horses will win this race. It has to be LOYAL ROYAL for me as he will derive massive benefit from his comeback run and his fitness and experience will stand him in good stead against these.

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NON STAKED RACES


Newmarket 1.45 - Stan James Telebetting Handicap (Class 2) (3yo,0-100) 7f

5/2 Dream Theme, 4/1 Levera, 7/1 Cactus King, 8/1 Military Cross, The Snatcher, 14/1 Layazaal, Star Crowned, 20/1 Salute Him, 25/1 Cape Presto

Selection - Have a Minimum stake split between STAR CROWNED 28/1 and SALUE HIM 28/1

The Ideal profile is 5-6 career starts and at least 2 this season and no horse has that. You also want a horse that ran well last time. The Closest runner to that profile is SALUTE HIM the 40/1 chance. Most horses concern me for one of 2 reasons. The first concern would be the Horses that came into this race with just 3 starts and had not run in a handicap before . These horses had a 1-40 record. Horses that attempt this are DREAM THEME 5/2 , CACTUS KING 7/1 and STAR CROWNED 25/1 . I would rather have had something with handicap experience. The 1-40 record is poor and included 5 beaten favourites and the only runner that managed it was New Seeker who was racing off a mark of 76 the year he won it yet improved to a mark of 111 suggesting he was thrown in. I do
think History has shown you would be better off with some handicap experience. I have problems with DREAM THEME on the ground anyway. The second type of horse that concerned me was the horses with just 1 race that season like DREAM THEME 5/2 , LEVERA 4/1 , DARK ISLANDER 6/1 , THE SNATCHER 8/1, LAYAZAAL 14/1 and CAPE PRESTO 25/1. The likelyhood is that as so many horses have this profile its quite likely one will win and render the stat as having failed. Horses with just 1 run that year had a weak 2-69 record and that included 7 beaten favourites. The last to do it (Reel Buddy) has since won a Group 1 race so I really would want a couple of runs this season. What you have here are 5 of the 10 runners fancied and the other 5 runners are rank outsiders. If you want to bet a Rank Outsider at 33/1 or more than you will have the perfect statistical horses on your side like STAR CROWNED and SALUTE HIM . The best profiles do come from the "Rags". If however you want to bet one of the 5 runners that the betting suggests has a chance then you have to decide about which type don you want. Do you want the types that are clearly inexperienced like Dream Theme and Cactus King or do you want the runners that may not Be as fit as you would like with just 1 run this season. In the end I thought 2 split stake bets on STAR CROWNED 28/1 and SALUE HIM 28/1 was interesting.

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Newmarket 2:50 - StanJamesUK.com Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

15/8 Shirocco, 7/2 Hard Top, 4/1 Munsef, 5/1 Bandari, 9/1 Enforcer, 16/1 Self Defense, 20/1 Gulf

Selection - SHIROCCO

The Jockey Club stakes has always gone to a horse that had less than 21 career starts and I think there is an argument for saying that the likes of Bandari , Enforcer , Self Defense and Gulf are possibly too exposed. 5 year olds have won the last 4 renewals and they have won 6 of the 7 races and the Andre Fabre 5 year old SHIROCCO 15/8 looks the perfect type for the race and doubtless laid out for it. I think the rains come in his favour and he should outclass this field.

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Newmarket 3.30 - Stan James 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m

4/1 Rumplestiltskin, 9/2 Flashy Wings, 6/1 Nannina, 7/1 Race For The Stars, Silca´s Sister, 12/1 Alexander Alliance, Speciosa, 14/1 Confidential Lady, 16/1 Donna Blini, La Chunga, Nasheej, 25/1 Wake Up Maggie, 66/1 Spinning Queen

Selection - SILCA'S SISTER 8/1

Had Godolphin shown themselves to be in great form then SILCA'S SISTER 8/1 would be a confident bet but the fact their 4 runners yesterday , their first of the season ran badly and thats a massive concern. In the end I have gone with SILCA'S SISTER in the hope that Godolphin can be relied upon to produce her at her best and because the overnight rain suits her more than most of the other runners. .SILCA'S SISTER is reported to have thrived over the winter and did after all beat the Colts in the Group 1 Prix Morny last year. She will also stay.

I am going to take on favourite RUMPLESTILTSKIN 4/1. What grates me about this horse is the only time she has lost in his 6 races so far was when I tipped her at Royal York and said that day that you could expect to see her in the Guineas. Its hard to know just what to make of the Subdued confidence in her from the O'Brien camp. What would worry me about her is this. How much scope has she got and will she train on ? No Winner of the 1000 Guineas came into the race with 6 races behind her. RUMPLESTILTSKIN would be the most exposed ever winner if she wins tomorrow. Its asking a lot for a horse so well raced as a juvenile to win this race having ran 6 times before already. Her last run also troubles me. She won the Prix Marcel Boussac over a Mile in France last October.
Horses that run over a Mile as a 2 year old dont tend to win the Guineas. In fact the last to manage it was Midway lady in 1986 who ran over a Mile at Doncaster and didnt run for 8 months before winning the Guineas and she was an Oaks winner as well that year. Since Midway Lady, All 41 horses that ran over a Mile as a 2 year old andthen tried to win the Guineas lost. You only have to go back to Karasta the 2001 favourite who flopped having run in the Prix Marcel Boussac. A Year later the 2002 hot favourite Gossamer preped over a Mile and flopped in the Guineas as did Red Bloom in 2004. RUMPLESTILTSKIN is also said to be a small horse and the preperation she has had (6 runs and ran over a Mile last time) is not the usual Guineas preperation and several horses failed with her profile and I think I want to oppose her tomorrow.

When you consider the last 20 years of the 1000 Guineas has never produced a Filly that had ran 6 times before I must oppose SPECIOISA as she has had 7 starts. Yes she is a classy tough filly and she may win a bad year but its unheard of to win this race with such an exposed horse and I cant have her because of that.I dont want DONNA BLINI as she looks a sprinter and has trouble with this trip. I am ignoring her trainer saying she will stay as he is far too optimistic with everything he says . The Sire Bertolini didnt stay and after failing at a mile went back to sprint trips . I dont think she will stay. I cant have ALEXANDER ALLIANCE 16/1as the last 20 winners had all ran in Group Class before and she hasnt. NANNINA 8/1 looks a lovely type but her profile worries me as well. Her trainer has said that she needs 10f or 12f this year. He considered the French Oaks and other middle distance targets. NANNINA is another thats already ran over a Mile as a 2 year old which is not what you want. She has also lacked a trouble free preperation. She is the wrong type for the race coming from a Mile. I am going to stand by that statistic and if its a stat that works then NANNINA is another of several in the race that can be ovelooked. FLASHY WINGS was beaten in the Cheveley Park Stakes last year but being beaten there by specialist sprinters (Donna Blini won that race) is no disgrace and horses beaten in the Cheveley Park that went on to win the 1000 Guineas include Russian Rhythm and Cape Verdi as well as Ravinella who won the Cheveley Park. FLASHY WINGS
should stay being by a Dam that won at 9f and a Sire (Zafonic) that won the 2000 Guineas. What would worry me about FLASHY WINGS is the Overnight Rain which could kill her chance and Mick Channons Guineas record . He is 0/9 in the 1000 and 0-10 in the 2000 and I just feel like Richard Hannon that the trainer comes up short in true Group 1 races. RACE FOR THE STARS from Aidan O Briens stable would scare me most if she is right and Fit but it worries me Fallon has chosen Rumplestiltskin.

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Hamilton 2.40 - Sunday Mail Annual Jump Jockeys Handicap (To Be Ridden By National Hunt Jockeys) (Class 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m65y

11/4 Dispol Veleta, 4/1 Calamari, 9/2 Jordans Elect, 7/1 Grande Roche, 15/2 Royal Pardon, 10/1 Barataria, Scotty´s Future, 16/1 Anthemion, Compton Dragon, 33/1 Tipu Sultan, 50/1 Inch High, Spirit Guide

Selection - JORDANS ELECT 6/1 EACH WAY

This is a 3 horse race for me between DISPOL VELETA 5/2, GRANDE ROCHE 7/1 and JORDANS ELECT 6/1 and I will be surprised if one doesnt win the race and it is hard to choose between them. CALAMARI 6/1 beat DISPOL VELETA at Beverley 10 days ago but I will be surprised if DISPOL VELETA 5/2 doesnt reverse that form . I didnt fancy DISPOL VELETA to win at Beverley. She was not the right type and the ground wasnt as she would want it. She was just behind Calamari who had by far the better run of the race. DISPOL VELETA Won this race last year and I think with the overnight rain and a far better draw she will beat CALAMARI today. This is actually an easier race than last years renewal and DISPOL VELETA has less weight today and is lower in the Handicap. I see her as the best weighted horse and the fittest horse and I think 5/2 about her is about the right price. JORDANS ELECT scares me a lot. The horse has a great record here. His second run of the season in 2004 saw him win a Handicap here. His second run of the season in 2005 saw him runner up in a Handicap here. He has changed stables over the winter from Ian Semple to Peter Monteith and thats interesting as Monteith has twice won this race before and I think its a safe bet that JORDANS ELECT has been laid out this race. GRANDE ROCHE caught the eye last time. His form isnt as good as the other pair but he gets weight and is the right age for the race. All in all I thought JORDANS ELECT was too big at 6/1 and a decent each way bet and he is the selection.

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Hamilton 3:15 - Peter Scahill Memorial Selling Stakes (Class 5) (3yo) 1m65y

5/2 Scuzme, 9/2 Bond Cruz, 5/1 The Jailer, 6/1 Augustus Livius, Royal Moon, 8/1 Lucys Lady, 16/1 Red Iris, 20/1 Ever Special, Wilmas Gal, 33/1 Frank Cartwright, 50/1 Mandarin Dancer, Mandarin Grand

Selection -AUGUSTUS LIVIUS 12/1 with a saver on THE JAILER 5/1

I have this between AUGUSTUS LIVIUS 12/1 and THE JAILER 5/1 and I think betting AUGUSTUS LIVIUS and saving on THE JAILER makes sense. I would have thought there is a strong case for arguing that SCUZME 5/2 and BOND CRUZ 4/1 wont be fit enough today. Both horses come from stables that dont do well in 3 year old sellers. SCUZME has ran just the once since last September and BOND CRUZ Has ran once since last December. This race has a 3 year history which isnt much to assess data from but unsurprisingly all 3 winners were well raced that year and I do think both these will have serious fitness doubts today. LUCYS LADY doesnt look like she will stay on breeding. Her sire hasnt had a 7f winner yet never mind a Miler. ROYAL MOON doesnt appeal from stall One. I give EVER SPECIAL a small chance but the best 2 runners for me are AUGUSTUS LIVIUS and THE JAILER. I thought AUGUSTUS LIVIUS was interesting. His stable were beaten a short head in this race last year when trying to land a gamble and its one of the few yards that do have a pedigree of selling races for 3 year olds. He is pretty weak in the betting at 12/1 but I think thats value. Fillies may well be the best bets here and I think THE JAILER at 9/2
with a Good draw has to be a saver and she has evey chance of taking this race as well.

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Salisbury 2:30 - totesport.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

4/1 Gamble In Gold, 9/2 Trafalgar Bay, 6/1 Pearly Wey, 8/1 Ba Foxtrot, Makabul, 10/1 Bentong, Dark Missile, 11/1 Puskas, 12/1 Scarlet Knight, 14/1 Jeanmaire, 16/1 Charles Darwin

Selection - DARK MISSILE 12/1

Last years result was a dead heat betwen horses that had ran 3 and 4 times before and thats the ideal criteria. You want a horse with less than 6 career starts. Exposed horses have had a dreadful record in this race. 10 of 11 renewals were won by horses that had between 2 and 6 career starts. If you look at horses that had more than that they have a miserable 1-49 record. There are many exposed horses in this race. B A FOXTROT being a perfect example. I cant have him for this reason and the favt his trainer is 0-9 in this race, all topweights lost and horse like him dropping from 7f have yet to provide the winner. Puskas 11/1 , Scarlet Knight 12/1 , Jeanmaire 14/1 and Charles Darwin are also overexposed. I am going to take on the horses that have raced just once like MAKABUL 8/1 who surely have to be a little too inexperienced. I cant find a Handicap in May short of a Mile thats been won by a once raced horse. I therefore also want to oppose the well backed Pearly Way 7/2 whose trainer has never won a handicap with such an inexperienced horse before. The Most likely winners for me are BENTONG who has been well backed (Stable record here is very weak) , TRAFALGAR BAY 8/1 (fitness doubts) GAMBLE IN GOLD 7/1 and DARK MISSILE 12/1 From Andrew Baldings. I am taking a chance of DARK MISSILE first time out. The stable have won this race before as have seasonal debutants and at 12/1 she may well have the ability to win from her handicap mark. She is just the marginal selection from 4 ideal profiles in the race.

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Salisbury 3:40 - totequadpot Fillies' Conditions Stakes (Class 3) (2yo) 5f

8/13 Gilded, 100/30 Pretty Majestic, 8/1 Elizabeth Street, 14/1 Queen Of Narnia, 16/1 Colchium, 33/1 Harvest Joy,

GILDED 8/13 and QUEEN OF NARNIA 14/1 are the only experienced runners and horses that raced before have won 6 of the 7 renewals and the only unraced winner of this ran in Group 1 company as a 3 year old. I think its best to stick with experience and as Richard Hannon has won this race 3 times before and in the years he hasnt won it he has invariably had the runner up it looks best left to GILDED. I much prefer here over PRETTY MAJESTIC whose stable (Channon) have lost with every unraced filly they sent to Salisbury in conditions races on their debuts. If there is an argument against GILDED it will be because she has had 3 runs and may be a little exposed but rather 3 runs than none at all and thats why I feel GILDED will win.

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Salisbury 4.15 - totesport 0800 221 221 Handicap (Class 4) (3yo,0-85) 1m1f198y

2/1 Awatuki, 11/4 Smart Gal, 11/4 Snoqualmie Boy, 7/1 Mister Benedictine, 8/1 Pinch Of Salt, 11/1 Mujood,

John Dunlop runs SMART GIRL and he has the best History in this winning this race 3 times before and twice with seasonal debutants like SMART GIRL. It isnt a great race for fillies though. They have a 1-34 record in this race and it is asking a lot for her to win this on her debut. The horses to avoid her are the exposed types like Mister Benedictine 7/1 and Mujood 11/1. All 35 horses that had ran 7 or more times before lost in this race and 11 of the 12 winners managed a 1-2-3-4-5 placing last time and both these didnt. There are only 6 runners and the interesting one has to be AWATUKI 2/1 from Alan Jarvis's . Well backed overnight from 4/1 to 5/2 the horse is clearly held in the highest regard. He is ideally exposed. He destroyed a Maiden field at Kempton in March. He then went on to finish 3rd in a 0-85 Handicap at the same track. Alan Jarvis has said of the horse "He was a big two-year-old who came on loads over the winter. He is the most expensive yearling I have ever bought - when I saw him at the Doncaster Sales I said he was the best yearling I had seen in 20 years and I paid 125,000gns for him.He worked so well we put him in the Derby. Whatever happens, he will win some nice races this year. It was only £8,000 to put him in the Derby and I would be very disappointed if he couldn't win that in prize-money this year.". The horses profile, the market confidence and the trainer comments suggest to me that AWATUKI can win this race.

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