I dont class today as the Flat season with Lingfield's All Weather replacing Doncaster. We have our first Turf meeting tomorrow so that should be interesting. Today I seem to fancy a lot of short priced horses. These are just "mentions" and there for anyone if they want them. I am staying with bigger priced horses for my stronger bets. I will be making Alterations to the "advised bets" issue this year and there will be total Clarity on this difficult issue very soon.

What has dissapointed me about todays message is the lack of reasonable priced selections. I have kept coming back to short Priced horses. In the end I have no doubt about my best bet of the day. It wont be an easy race to win but I think the horse is the perfect type for the race and at 9/2 He gets the "Best Bet of the Day" tag and will be one of the last Best Bets of the day before I changs things around a bit.

Best Bet of the Day

Ludlow 3.40 - HE'S THE GAFFER 9/2


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Yesterdays Summary

MATHEWMUROTO - Won Nicely at 7/4 beating the favourite

AURORA JANE - Placed Each Way at 9/1 to make a small profit

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Today's Racing

Lingfield 2.20 - 3/1 Fast Freddie, 5/1 Hephaestus, 11/2 Catweasel, Weyba Downs, 6/1 Satulagi, 10/1 Beckenham´s Secret, 12/1 Auctioneerscouk, Our Blessing, 16/1 Fasuby, 33/1 Ivorys Song,

Selection - FAST FREDDIE 11/8 and WEYBA DOWNS 10/1 look best to me

CATWEASAL 11/2 is a Negative because the Dam has produced 5 foals and they have all been very modest and below 0-70 Class and its unlikely that he will be any better and I doubt that will be good enough to win this and both parents lost on their debuts. SATULAGI 6/1 is a negative as this is a Maiden Auction and the lowest weight means the cheapest horse. She is the cheapest, and fillies only won 2 of the 14 previous renewals and statistics show that the very lightweights are outscored heavily by the more expensive types. Both her parents and all her siblings failed on their debuts as well. I dont want 2 year olds that have been "gelded" against Colts. The Gelded runners BECKENHAMS SECRET 9/1 and AUCTIONEERSCOUK cant be entirely rules out but an early gelding suggests temprement and I think you are better off with a Colt. Another negative is HEPHAESTUS as he is drawn badly. This for me suggests the well touted FAST FREDDIE (11/8 ) Ought to have a serious chance as should the well drawn WEYBA DOWNA 14/1 relateed to early juvenile winners and from a stable in form.

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Lingfield 3.25 - Evs Kalankari, 3/1 Karijini, 6/1 Abaconian, 8/1 Maud´s Cat, 10/1 Gattuso, 20/1 Evident Pride, Titus Lumpus, 50/1 Tilsworth Charlie,

Selection - KALANKARI

Little to go on based on Formn but trainer angles and theb history of this race suggest to me that the 4/6 favourite KALANKARI cant be opposed. I certainly dont want ABACONIAN . This race has been transfered from Doncaster and you can make no assumptions about that but the history of this race shows quality horses win it. Past winners have been rated 90 108 84 113 102 105 102 at some stage of their career and I think they are far better types than ABACONIAN who finished behind 63 and 65 rated horses Last time out. When this was run at Doncaster no winners came via the all weather and although its not safe to assume this race will mirror Doncasters in any way I think it will be dissapointing if ABACONIAN is good enough. The other market danger to the favourite KARIJINI doesnt come from a stable (Ed Dunlop) that you would have great faith in with unraced 3 year olds. Dunlps record in 3 year old maidens in early season with unraced horses is not that good and you are always hopefull of beating this stable. Andrew Baldings KALANKARI is a solid 70-75 horse with multiple entries this week and I think its asking a lot for anything in this race to run to that rating today. The favourite wouldnt be my idea of value but I dont see any reasons to oppose him and I think he should be good enough to win.

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Lingfield 5.05 - 3/1 Polish Power, 4/1 Augustine, 5/1 Ramsgill, 8/1 Full Of Zest, Love You Always, 10/1 Scottish River, Spring Time Girl, 12/1 Graft, 14/1 Monkstown Road, 25/1 Just A Fluke, 66/1 Lyrical Girl, Neptune, 100/1 Beau Jazz

Selection - POLISH POWER 7/2 with a saver on AUGUSTINE 7/1

Negatives - RAMSGILL 5/1 FULL OF ZEST 8/1 LOVE YOU ALWAYS 8/1- SCOTTISH RIVER 10/1

This race is reaped in History and if the trends from this Doncaster race are able to be transfered onto Lingfield Polytrack then we have some negatives. What we know about the history of this race are 5 things.

a) Maidens dont win and have a 0-69 record
b) Horses that ran once this season have a 0-29 record
c) Horses that ran within 15 days had a 1-39 record
d) 4 year olds have a weak 4-120 record and they havent won since 1999.
e) Horses with less than 13 career starts have a 0-88 recprd

From todays runners RAMSGILL 5/1 is a 4 year old thats had a recent run. FULL OF ZEST 8/1 has much against him as an inexperienced 4 year old maiden with just 1 race this season. LOVE YOU ALWAYS 8/1 has ran just once this year. SCOTTISH RIVER 10/1 is a 4 year old and very hard to win with. I would be against these 4 runners. POLISH POWER is the Selection in the race. POLISH POWER 3/1 is one of the few statistically perfect runners in this race (see Negatives). He has been running well on the sand . His last 4 races have seen a consistent 2 W 2 W record. He won last time with a lot in hand and the form looks fine. The 2nd (Sugitani ) has come out and won since , the 3rd (Amwell Brave ) has come out and ran 2nd in a photo and the 6th has placed since.

What I like about POLISH POWER is that he ran in the Ladies race at Doncaster last year off the same Handicap Mark. He was a fast finishing 3rd last year after missing the break in a far bigger field , and this year he comes into the race a lot fitter and in far better form than he came into the 2005 renewal. The big worry is the drop in trip but I think he can win at 10f. I think by saving on AUGUSTINE who looks the main danger now he is back on Polytrack and back in trip we should have most of the dangers covered in this race.

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Ludlow 3:05 -Mid Wales Welding Claiming Hurdle (Class 5) (4yo+) 2m

5/2 Ambersong, 4/1 Broke Road, 9/2 Remington, 5/1 Made In France, 7/1 Desert Spa, 10/1 Humid Climate, 20/1 Nepal, 33/1 Barcelona, 50/1 Red Rocky, Weet Watchers, 100/1 Look No More,

Selection - BROKE ROAD

The price on BROKE ROAD Has collapsed after a non runner and a gamble on the horse but I still think he is the natural winner of this race. There have been 41 Claiming Hurdles run in March before. Whats significant is that 36 of those 41 races are won by horses in the Top 5 of the weights. The better horses get the high weights as their connections dont want to lose them to cheap money. The Top 5 weights in this race are Ambersong, Broke Road,
Remington, Humid Climate and Dance With Wolves (Non Runner) . Thats where the winner should come from. I am going to rule out seasonal debutant REMINGTON. If you take the 41 Claiming Hurdles in March (at any distance) and research Seasonal debutants you find that all 42 of these were beaten. Its a similar story in April (1-49) and May and June (0-38) where seasonal debutants didnt score well. We may get a rare first time out winner but as there have been so few of them I want a horse thats been running this season. I want to oppose HUMID CLIMATE as well. He has just downgraded stables from Richard Fahey which may be a problem and not only did he refuse to race last time but he is also ridden by a rider who has only ridden one winner before and that was a Hunter Chase. I think this is between AMBERSONG 5/2 and BROKE ROAD. Bearing in mind BROKE ROAD only has to concede Tony Carrol's AMBERSONG 2lbs in weight I have to go with BROKE ROAD 4/1. Its hard to knock his course and distance run when 5th in a 0-125 in January. Thats something that looks a lot better on paper than Ambersong whose form revolves mainly around selling hurdles and sub 100 rated runners.

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Ludlow 3.40 - 9/2 Alcopop, 5/1 He´s The Gaffer, 11/2 Log On Intersky, Saafend Rocket, 8/1 Ede´Iff, Meehan, 10/1 Golly, Pauntley Gofa, 12/1 Big Bone, Toulouse, 25/1 Kind Sir

Selection - HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1

Last years winner ALCOPOP has a lot more to do this year. His 2005 win was against just 4 opponents in a 0-103 Handicap Chase. This year he has 10 rivals and a 0-113 Handicap Chase to negotiate and thats with a 7lbs claimer this year. I think there is a strong angle here that Points to HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 winning this race. HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 Is the Only Novice in this race against experienced Handicappers but thats what you want. You want the improving Novices. Certainly Alcopop was a Novice When he won this race last year. I think you should stay with the only Novice . If you look at all 20f Handicap Chases at this sort of trip in this sort of class you find 43 races run in the month of March. If you look at the record of Novices in these races they are excellent. They win 26% of the races from just 14% of the runners but if you look specifically at Horses that came from Novice Handicap Chases they have a stunning record of providing 8 winners from just 19 runners. That is Clear evidence that the ideal types to win 20f Handicap Chases at this time of year are Novices and HE'S THE GAFFER is the only Novice. This Ludlow race has been ran 4 times before and makees up 4 of the 43 similar races. This Ludlow race has seen Novices win 3 of the 4 races . It shouldnt worry you that HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 Didnt finish last time. 2 of the previous 4 winners didnt finish on their last start and there is something else thats either fascinating or possibly just coincidental. When I stated that horses that came from Novice Handicaps had a 8-19 record in these races , the record of horses like HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 that failed to finish last time out is remarkable as 6 of
the 8 individual winners also failed to finish on their latest start. For me the clear statistical horse is HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 . His last run saw him fall over a longer trip but that was in a better class than this. Go back to his previous race and he beat Mathew Muroto (one of my best bets yesterday) by 9 lengths and that horse came out and won yesterday. He looks an improving horse as prior to that he won a poor Novice event 17 lengths. I think with his "Type" so succesfully in these races its worth giving HE'S THE GAFFER 5/1 the benefit of any doubt to carry on his improvement and beat this standard group of mainly exposed Handicappers.

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Ayr 2.10 - 7/4 Aces Four, 9/2 Canada Street, Duke Orsino, 5/1 Commanche Sioux, 7/1 Le Millenaire, 12/1 Monifieth, 25/1 Mountain Mix, Speedro, 33/1 Bint Sesaro,

Selection - ACES FOUR

I would have liked to have found an each way steal in this race. After studying it for a while I came down thinking the favourite was the probably winner but that I would rather bet him in an each way double. I dont want COMMANCHE SIOUX 6/1 simply as she is a 4 year old Filly. They can and they do win from time to time but only 3 fillies have won from 159 that tried in Class 4 Novice Hurdles and there is no doubt you would rather not have to bet them if you couldnt help it. DUKE ORSINO 6/1doesnt do it for me either. It would worry me that he startedn 50/1 for a Maiden Hurdle last time . His 2nd doesnt impress me as the horses behind had excuses. The 3rd (Lethem Air) didnt stay and the favourite (4th) is a dog. I think he was flattered and beat nothing. I think there
has to be a huge stamina doubt about LE MILLENAIRE and he is drifting wildly. I respect CANADA STREET after a couple of runs but everything we know about these Novice Hurdles does prove without any doubt that you ideally want more experience than that and then ideal , optimum number of runs is more than that. With ACES FOUR she has upgraded stables which is significant and has come good. I think she is the most likely winner . Would I bet him at 5/4 ? No I wouldnt . I would however include him in an each way double.

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Ayr 4.20 - 5/2 The Names Bond, 7/2 Polyphon, 4/1 Show Me The River, 9/2 Nifty Roy, 6/1 Cyborg De Sou, 14/1 Ambition Royal, 16/1 Sands Rising,

Selection - SHOW ME THE MONEY

Not enough Angles for me to get confident about and the fact there are just 7 runners almost stops my betting interest in the race dead. If I was having a Bet it would be SHOW ME THE RIVER. This is because he is a Novice taking on handicappers. Looking at 55 Handicap Chases under identical conditions there is a clear advanatage to horses that have been running in Non Handicap Chases as SHOW ME THE RIVER has been. Only 30 of these chasers have tried to win these races yet 10 managed it which is a very high strike rate. When they are Topweight , and race against experienced handicappers they have a superb 6 wins from just 9 runners. This wont be easy to win and other angles are thin on the ground but he would be the pick.

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