Friday

No Account Bet Today.

This is the Last Message for a week as I am on my Holidays tomorrow. When I get back its Flat and National Hunt Action all the way . If every week was a Golf Tournament I would have missed the Cut this week. You always have this late season debate with yourselves about whether you have just gone off the boil after a great spell and run a little out of form or whether the Races that are run at this time of year make it so difficult that its impossible to hit a high standard in this time of year. I dont know which is more accurate but I havent been firing this week and a Break should be a big help. I am sorry I havent been at my best this week and will put it down as a poor week even though we have just had 1 bet that lost. I have been more bothered about the lack of quality in the e mails though and I havent seen anything thats been really relevant or strong enough to get heavily excited about.

Today I have edge's in two races. I wont advise a bet in the 3.45 at Newmarket as I feel although Mashaahed 3/1 is a worthy selection and Khyber Kim a decent saver 11/4 I dont feel the prices are big enough to think we are getting any value. I do like the Lingfield 2.20 race. Its a juvenile Clainer. I nearly made LA MARMOTTE 5/1 and account bet today and I also like RETALIATE 7/1 in the race as well. That is a really strong statistical race. I am not going with the bet. LA MARMOTTE really let me down when I tipped her last time at Kempton and I dont like going in again on beaten bets and to be honest with the rain I am not certain about the Draw Bias at Lingfield. I do think She will have the best draw and will try and make all along the rails and thats her best chance but if low numbers are favoured after the rain then we could be in Limbo with both her and RETALIATE. On the last message before a Break I have decided not to risk the bet especially after a bit of Flat form. RETALIATE also has every chance today. In the end I decided to wait until after I get back to have an account bet. When I get back I will also start the Laying Service. There is no charge at this stage for that and if you want that service just mail me over the next week and let me know.

I have rung Corals this morning and had the following Bet. Its 8 x £25 win Trebles. Bit of Novelty and I can hardly be confident of a return but it will be about 5 grand returns for a couple of hundred quid and I think it has a reasonable chance of success.

Lingfield 2.20 - La Marmotte and Retaliate (Both at Sp)
Newmarket 3.45 - Mashaahed and Khyber Kin (Both at Sp)
Canmbridgeshire - Smart Enough 7/1 and Fairmile 9/1

8 x £25 Trebles

I think with the CAMBRIDGESHIRE it is possibly an easy renewal this year . There are only about 7 runners under 28/1 in the Market. I have gone with Smart Enough and Fairmile in my Novelty bet and one is drawn Low and one High. I have no real strong opinion about the race. I would have put Charlie Cool in the bet but he is only 10/1 and 16/1 on the exchanges so I have had some 16/1 to cover the Novelty £200 stake and thats cheap saving and gets him out of the way. I have been keen on Rohaani but the ground has put me off him as has the Middle Draw in stall 12. I considered Spectait but 9st 8lbs put me off as did the 9st 9lbs that Cesare carries. I think that although luck will be needed I have at least one runner thats going to be drawn well and 2 horses that will be easy to hedge if I get to the Last Leg. It is only a Novelty bet but if i Can scrape home today in the 2.20 and 3.45 I will have 24 very pleasnt hours to imagine what may happen tomorrow in
the Cambridgeshire. Pinpoint could beat me but I dont like his penalty or his middle draw.

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TODAY'S RACING


NEWMARKET isnt an easy card today and Stats are pretty thin on the ground. The TATTERSALL STAKES at 1.30 is a dead duck statistically without any important angles. In the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at 2pm the exciting Sander Camillo is a non runner leaving the race wide open. The only statistical problem in this race is with exposed horses that have ran more than 4 times before. The Likes of Indian Ink 4/1 and Dhanyata and Scarlet Runner , Vital statistics all look a bit exposed. The Big runner is MAGIC AMERICA at 11/4. You have to respect this French raider Trained by Criquette Head. This is a top class trainer with a great record in this race over the years. She won it with subsequent 1000 Guineas winners Ma Biche (1982) and Ravinella (1987) along with 1996 scorer Pas De Reponse. Criquette Head doesnt come to England unless she has a good chance of winning. Apart from a loser in the Derby all 3 of her runners in England in the last 5 years were placed. MAGIC AMERICA is said to have no problems on the ground and has placed form in Group 1 company.
She may well win now the favourite is out. I have No Strong Angles in the MIDDLE PARK STAKES at 3.10. Clearly DUTCH ART will take a lot of beating after winning the Prix Morny in France and 4 recent winners of that race (Bahamian Bounty, Johannesburg, Elusive City and Whipper) all came here and Won after winning the Prix Morny. Small field today though and a quality field and without any Clear Edges in the race I dont want to play. I only have two races today where I have a strong Opinion. These are the NEWMARKET 3.45 and the LINGFIELD 2.20

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NEWMARKET 3.45 - 4/1 Mashaahed, 9/2 Khyber Kim, 5/1 Fire And Rain, Into The Dark, 7/1 Akarem, 9/1 Camrose, 11/1 Degas Art, 12/1 Savannah, 14/1 Profit´s Reality, 20/1 Before You Go, 33/1 Day Walker, Fantasy Ride, 40/1 Tiger Tiger, 50/1 Storm Trooper.

I am quite happy to take out the scrubbers in this race at 20/1 and over. The Market rarely gets these races wrong and we havent had a 20/1 + winner in this race since its inception in 1987 so they can be eliminated. In the last 18 years of this race we have not had a winner that had more than 16 career starts. That was the 2003 winner Ekraar but that was a strange year. Almost every runner was also highly exposed and aged 6 or more and it was a small field. I think you want a lightly raced horse here. After all 17 of the 18 winners were either aged 3 or aged 4 and thats highly significant for me. I would strongly want to stay with the younger 3 and 4 year olds. This puts me off AKAREM 7/1 and CAMROSE 9/1 as both are 5 year olds and both are most exposed than every one of the past 18 winners. I am also opposing Godolphin's INTO THE DARK 5/1 . It actually doesnt bother me that he in particular is a 5 year old as he has only been racing 2 seasons but he ran for the first time in 11 months in September this year and I question his fitness. We have only ever had 1 winner with just one race this season thats win this before and he ran badly last time out after a long absence and he would need to prove his fitness for me. INTO THE DARK did the same last year. He had 1 prep race and came to ths race as the 5/4 favourite and flopped. It is the "Godolphin" stakes but Godolphin are 0-6 in this race and I dont see INTO THE DARK as having the profile of a race fit horse. He is also tricky. He has had just 5 runs in the last 2 years and has lost them all starting Evens, 7/4, 3/1 5/4 and 11/8 and he is clearly a horse thats had training problems. PROFITS REALITY 14/1 with 24 starts is also too exposed for me. The Ideal Shortlist has to be these 4 runners who are ideally unexposed and the right age group

FIRE AND RAIN 6/1
KHYBER KIM 7/2
MASHAAHED 7/2 (Barry Hills has a 3-5 record in this race)
DEGAS ART 14/1

DEGAS ART 14/1 has ran below his best for three races now accordingb to his trainer and he doesnt look as progressive as the other pair. The Aidan O Brien runner FIRE AND RAIN has a chance and is hard to read. He would be the most inexperienced winner of this race in years. He comes from the St Leger at Doncaster. There have been 15 horses that tried that and although the 1995 winner won coming from the Leger every one of those that tried were more experienced and thats simply his major flaw in the race. I have nothing against KHYBER KIM 7/2 in this race. He has ran into some good horses and shown plenty of ability and I see him as potential winner. I also think that Barry Hill's MASHAAHED 7/2 is a massive runner. He looks Highly progressive winning a Listed race easily last time at Ayr and its interesting that Barry Hills has a 4-9 record in this race winning it in 1991,1996, 2002 and 2004. Both KHYBER KIM 7/2 and MASHAAHED 7/2 are comfortably the statistical picks in this race and I would suggest you have a saver on one and bet the other. Personally I would make the selection MASHAAHED and save on KHYBER KIM.

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LINGFIELD 2.20 - 6/1 Fadeyev, 7/1 Ten Dollars More, 8/1 Ballyshane Spirit, La Marmotte, Lordswood, Stir Crazy, 10/1 Madam Gaffer, Retaliate, 12/1 Jost Van Dyke, Rowan Venture, 16/1 Benayoun, 20/1 One White Sock, 25/1 Colonel Klink, Go Dude, Raquel White, 33/1 Silver Bolt, 50/1 Jade´s Ballet, Maskaraid.

Experience is everything in these races. There have been 17 of these Claiming races. They have been dominated by the fitter experienced types. The record of horses that had 0-3 starts is just 3-140 in this race and I am opposing the inexperienced runners. A 3-140 record is pretty poor. One was a Mark Prescott debutant which can be discounted as a one off. Another only won in a dead heat. Another had 3 runs. Itsa major advantage for horses that ran 4 or more times and I expect that to be more relevant after the morning rain. I am rejecting LORDSWOOD 9/1 who has ran twice and from a stable thats never had a 2yo claiming winner before. Out goes BENAYOUN a debutant whose stable have never won with a debutant in this type of race before. I dont want any horse that goes from a 5f race as they have a deplorable record. The shortlist comes down to 7 runners.

Fadeyev 7/1 -Ten Dollars More 10/1 -La Marmotte 8/1 -Stir Crazy 6/1 -Madam Gaffer 10/1 -Retaliate 12/1-Rowan Venture 16/1

I am going to take on FADEYEV 7/1 as he could be badly drawn in stall 1 and from the 7 shortlisted horses all the quality and the right statistical runners are drawn high and I feel the pace and class will be from the high numbers leaving FADEYEV vulnerable. He has also got a female jockey and comes from a 2 year old Maiden and the record of horses that do that isnt great with just 2 winners from 68 runners. TEN DOLLARS MORE has the ability to win this at his best but looks inconsistent and I dont think the overnight rain has helped him and as yet no juvenile sired by Elnadim has won on soft ground yet. Brian Meehan's runner MADAME GAFFER is interesting as the stable have a great record in this race. Brian Meehan won this race in 1996, 1997 and 2003. He also had the runner up in 1998 and the 3rd in 1995. I dont like the fact MADAM GAFFER has a Middle draw when ridden by a 7lbs claimer and she will have to cope with getting to the advantagous side of the track with an inexperienced jockey (No 7lbs claimer has won this race before) against more inexperienced horses . None of Brian Meehan's horses were Fillies and I think MADAM GAFFER has too much on today. ROWAN VENTURE has not proven enough yet and comes from a maiden race and he just doesnt look ready enough to cope with some of these. STIR CRAZY has a great chance but soft ground may be against him. The only times he raced on soft ground he was beaten favourite twice. You can excuse his debut run but when he faced soft ground at Southwell he was hammered by RETALIATE and after the race Mick Channon's representative reported that Stir Crazy was unsuited by the soft ground. My shortlist is

LA MARMOTTE 8/1
RETALIATE 12/1

LA MARMOTTE is well entered up this week. She has only ran once on soft ground seeming to act on it when 2nd in a Maiden race. Her Dam has produced a couple of mudlarks and she should handle the soft ground. She ran a bit flat at Kempton last time out but I think she was outspeeded that day and didnt get enough of a test. I tipped her that day and felt she had the weapons to win the race. She had easily won a selling race by 3.5 lengths and either side of that win she has performed with credit when 3rd and 4th in 0-78 and 0-82 Nurserys races. Her trainer describes her as "genuine" and the stable are having winners. I see her as potentially having the best draw and a horse thats highly likely to get out in front and setting a decent pace. She is one of these horses that can grab the rails and lead all the way or one of these horses that could collapse once overtaken and for that reason I see her as a Win Bet.

RETALIATE ran 4 times in Maidens and then won a Yarmouth Claimer on soft ground by 3 lengths (easily beating Stir Crazy). She will love the soft ground. Earlier in her maiden the trainer was complaining the ground was too firm for her. She was impressive at Yarmouth and looked good. Her trainer describes her as "game" and there does not look to be any tempremental issues. RETALIATE has since ran badly stepping up to 7 furlongs at Yarmouth coming last in a 7 runners 0-80 Nursery. I think you can forgive her that. Her Sire has a 0-79 record with juveniles at 7f and beyond and its likely she didnt get home. She was beaten before stamina ran out but it was a better race than this and on fast ground and she can not be ruled out back in class on this ground.

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