* UPDATE at 5pm

I Have to send a second E Mail tonight for evening racing as there are Thunderstorms due this afternoon and we need to be on top of this. Tonights message will be at 5pm, could contain a further bet , and will have some "Cyprus" issues in it. For now though todays Bet

ACCOUNT BET

Folkestone 3.45

(1) PALACE WALK £40 WIN 6/1

(2) CANTRIP £10 SAVER 8/1


PALACE WALK is 6/1 with Totalbet Chandler Ulbetting Bet365 Stanjames Betfred
CANTRIP is 7/1 with Skybet, Stan James, SP Odds and generally 13/2 elsewhere

£50 Staked on the Day. I am taking a chance with Palace Walk being well handicapped after showing improvement over hurdles. Cantrip has good history in this race. I feel
there is an argument both are better class than their rivals. At 6/1 and 7/1 I have no excuses but to go for them despite the unknown risk factor involved

* Next Message this evening at 5pm

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Today's Racing

Folkestone 2.15 - 5/2 Enjoy The Buzz, 4/1 Elvina, 7/1 Montillia, 8/1 Chantelle´s Dream, Flying Tackle, 12/1 Pro Tempore, 16/1 Great Belief, Heavens Walk, Jasmine Pearl, 20/1 Millfields Dreams, 25/1 Royal Supremacy, 33/1 Enchanting Times, Italian Mist, Xaar Breeze

ENJOY THE BUZZ 5/2 Won this race in 2004. He had a 4 day absence last year and has a 4 day absence this year. His weight and draw are very similar this year to last year and with several races this year he looks fit and well and has a clear chance. In terms of dangers, these sprints often throw something at you that you couldnt consider but for me there are 3 horses that I couldnt bet as they have just 1 race this year. All 60 horses that had 1 run that ran in 5f 0-60 handicaps at this time of year lost. These are Elvina 4/1 , Flying Tackle 20/1 and Heavan Walf 16/1. I would be pretty confident one of these wont win. The market danger to ENJOY THE BUZZ is ELVINA 4/1 and I personally couldnt bet her with just 1 race behind her since November much as she has won when fresh before. She has been quite strong in the market but she isnt for me. Its a judgement call about whether to risk ENJOY THE BUZZ at a price you instictively feel isnt value or prompt for something other than the negatives that you feel is value but that you cant guarantee will run well. Give me a free £100 bet in the race and I would either bet ENJOY THE BUZZ each way at 5/2 or bet him place only at 4/6. He is far safer than ELVINA in my opinion.

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Folkestone 3:45 - Bet On England @ William Hill Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+,0-60) 1m4f

7/2 Icannshift, 5/1 Palace Walk, 6/1 Lysander´s Quest, Tojoneski, 7/1 Lenwade, 8/1 Cantrip, 12/1 My Boo, 16/1 Lasting Image, 20/1 Chimes At Midnight, Liameliss, 25/1 Loitokitok, 33/1 Expression Echo,

Selection - PALACE WALK

Saver - CANTRIP

I think there are arguments to suggest PALACE WALK and CANTRIP have a Class advantage over this field. In selecting PALACE WALK there is a slight worry that He hasnt shown any form on the Flat and I am assuming his improvement over hurdles this year makes him well handicapped. Trying first of all to narrow the field down a bit I want to overlook and opposed the seasonal debutants in this 12f Handicap. The record of"First time outers" is 0-65 in these races. May be slightly misleading as a couple have won at 11.5f furlongs but I am still staying with that stat. To win a 12f handicap 1st time out requiers a bit of class. If a horse has that class then what is he doing in a 0-60 race ? Thats probably why seasonal debutants win at this trip in better races but not in this. Anyway I am opposing them which means negatives for TOJONESKI 7/1 , Liameliss and Lasting Image. TOJONESKI has won fresh before and could defy that stat but his form looks "Banded" and he isnt that good and has to be vulnerable to anything better class in this race. The "First time out "stat is slightly misleading . So is the "Age" stat as well. This says that all 65 horses aged 8 or more Lost in these handicaps which is a question against Lysanders Quest 5/1 and Chimes At Midnight. From the betting Lysanders Quest clearly looks fancied but He is little better than a Banded horse and CHIMES AT MIDNIGHT hasnt been running well enough and doesnt appear easy to fancy despite some market support in the offices at 14/1. LENWADE 8/1 has not looked good recently and may be an Autumn horse.

I have to take the Top two in the weights here. PALACE WALK 6/1 and CANTRIP 6/1 both have at least 6lbs more than any other horse in this race. This suggests a class gap. If you scrub out Loitokitok as having no chance then that Gap rises to 8lbs. You could very well have 2 horses here that are significantly better class than their rivals. CANTRIP 7/1 significantly has history in this race. Rather Ludicrously neither the Racing post or The Sportsman tell you that CANTRIP Won this race in 2004 and came 4th in the 2005 renewal (when he did not have a great preperation). The issue for me about CANTRIP is whether she is fit with a couple of runs this year and a Poor run last time. To be honest the last run she had when well beaten doesnt bother me. Look at her 4 career wins. Before the 4 times that she has won races the horse's last run saw her come 8th, 5th , 17th and 9th in her 4 previous races before she was beaten, and she lost those races by 9. 17, 30 and 23 lengths so she has always ran badly before winning. She has won twice at 25/1 from these 4 runs suggesting she wins when unexpected and either unfancied or perhaps inconsistently and when hard to predict or perhaps she is cleverly trained to win after a quiet race. The fact she has won when "Fresh" and does not seem to take much getting fit, and the strong history she has in this race does suggest she may have been laid out for the race. With that "History" and the Class gap she has at the top of the weights I would see CANTRIP as a highly significant runner in this race and a horse that should be saved upon at least. PALACE WALK Ran 5 times from Andrew Balding on the Flat without much promise before switching to Brendan Powell over Hurdles. He eventually improved over hurdles winning 2 Novice Hurdles and ending up a decent handicap hurdler. His last race in a 0-125 Handicap Hurdle wasnt bad at all considering he was entitled to need that run. Bred for 12f and fast ground He may be ridiculously well handicapped off 57 today back on the Flat for the first time in 16 months and only the 6th time in all. You wouldnt be certain about his ideal trip or whether he can translate his hurdles form back to the flat but this is a desperate race and its not hard to feel that PALACE WALK Cant be anything but very well handicapped off 57. Of course he may turn out to be far better over hurdles and not to show any "Flat" form but I cant see why that should be. He is Flat bred and Well bred as well. The Dam has had some nice foals that ran in Listed and Group races abroad. PALACE WALK hasnt yet had the chance to show what he can do on the Flat yet. I personally think both PALACE WALK and CANTRIP stand out a mile in this race and with the main bet on PALACE WALK as I think if there is a horse thats different class to these its him.

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