Account Bet

Kempton 2.20 - LA MARMOTTE 9/2

£100 Win

9/2 Stan James - Totalbet - Ukbetting
4/1 Bet365 - Blue Square

Ladbrokes-Hills - Corals have yet to price up the race.

Just to remind you there will be No Messages on Monday or Tuesday as I am having my Adenoids out and have to stay overnight in Hospital. I must admit Saturdays winner should have bought me some goodwill and I dont feel too bad now about having to take the time off.

I said I would do a Message today. I must admit I hate Goodwood's track and find so few angles there and I am not mentally right on the Jumps yet. I have given 3 previews over the jumps in the last 3 months and none of these won. Its very hard thing to suddenly think "national hunt" and switch codes when you are totally focussed on the Flat and I think I have been misreading the National hunt races lately and that has put me off Stratford today. I have decided To hav a Bet today on the Sand at Kempton. It is the only race I felt I had an edge in and I think we are on the right horse. I would take any 4/1 and 9/2 about this horse. The only horse that scares me is Todwick Owl 10/1 but My filly has done far more than she has and I think we hold an outstanding edge on form.
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Talking Points


* Saturday's Summary

Fantastic result really with CARIBBEAN CORAL Winning at 15/2 landing the Account Bet. He broke well and got the run of the race and Mowed down the favourite to make it a Saturday to remember. I have been in such great form this year it has to be my best Flat Season. Staretd slowly. There were problems that I am trying to iron out not least the transfering of winners from the BBOD account to the Main account and I have made good progress with that and have got the Account in its best ever position but We still need to keep this high standard up and the Move from Level Stakes has been a revelation in results and that just shows you sometimes its just a matter of tinkering with things and creating the conditions you can feel confident in. Humility aside the 2004 and part of 2005 seasons were learning curves and had to be worked through to get to where we are at the moment. Thats a real sign of a Tipster Maturing and having to work through some pretty average times before progressing to where we are now. I think we have shown this year that we can make huge profits without compromising quality or long e mails. There is still much more improvement to come. I know the weak areas and I think I can plug more gaps and improve another 2-5%. I am also working on a Unique method for the Jumps season that I expect to have the same dramatic result as the AOR's and I am going to introduce that to you at the end of the Flat season. Nobody has ever looked at a race in this way before and its beauty is its simplicity and it is going to really improve me on the Jumps and I feel I had a really good National Hunt Season last year. Excuse this bit of arrogance but I feel like Rambo at the moment with the analysis and I am in a very good place at the moment and have never been better.

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TODAY'S RACING


KEMPTON 2.20 - Walterswinburnracing.co.uk Nursery (Class 6) (2yo,0-65) 6f

9/4 Spinning Crystal, 4/1 Cantique, 5/1 Tiburon, 6/1 La Marmotte, 10/1 Wachiwi, 14/1 Indian Song, It´s No Problem, 16/1 Todwick Owl, 20/1 Aggbag, 25/1 Autumn Storm, 33/1 Prince Of Charm

Going to have a stab at this Low Class Nursery. I Cant quite believe I have been drawn into a race on the sand at Kempton that hasnt any history behind it but I do think there are important principles that need to be considered. The Important thing to remember is that its a Low Grade race for Low Grade horses. BAD Horses cant do the things that Good Horses do. Let me give you an example. This is a 6 furlong Nursery. For a Horse to win this coming from a 5f race its quite a difficult thing to do. They have been conditioned and trained to run at 5 furlongs on their last start. They race at 5f pace when they run and all of a sudden a very young horse is asked to move up in distance and they can struggle to do that. A Good Horse , that may be running in a Better Grade has the Raw Ability to adapt and Adjust to that change in distance. A Bad Horse has not got that. Thats at least what I "Think" the stats are telling me . Here is an example. There Have been 151 Nursery races in September in the last 20 years at 6 furlongs. Thats 151 races. I have looked at how Many horses have managed to win one of the 151 races coming from a 5f race on their latest start. I think the results are quite dramatic. I have found that the "Good horses" manage to do it quite comfortably in
decent class Nurserys. Yet take the Low Grade Bargain Basement horses like this race today and they struggle. Horses that ran in CLASS 2, CLASS 3 or CLASS 4 races which are horses on decent ability managed to win 29 of the 151 races. They didnt score well but 29 wins is more than enough to show that If a horse is good enough then they can overcome the Handicap of coming from a 5f race. Its a vastly different matter with Low Grade Horses in Low Grade Races. Take the 151 Nursery races in Sepetmber at 6 furlongs. If you take the low grade and Look at Nurserys in CLASS 5 , CLASS 6, and CLASS 7 (Todays race is a Class 6 race) and look at the record of horses that try to overcome this burden its a very poor record. In Low Grade Nurseries Only 1 horse has managed to win a Low Class Nursery coming from a 5f race. There were 80 that tried to do that in the last 20 years and only 1 succeeded. That was way back at Redcar in 1993 and a horse called Roxanian .It strikes me that its a tough thing to do for a 2 year old to move from 5f to 6f and that whilst it can and is regularly done in better class of races its rarely been done in the lowest class like this and has in fact only been done once since 1985. Therefore I want to Oppose the runners that come from 5f races - These include CANTIQUE 4/1 - TIBURON 5/1 - INDIAN SONG 14/1 - AUTUMN STORM 25/1. Thats 2 of the Most fancied runners in the race wiped out for me and I think we can reduce the field gfurther with more negatives. I cant have ITS NO PROBLEM 25/1. She has never been better than 5th before and She has no scope for improvement and comes from a stable that have never had a nursery winner before. AGGBAG 22/1 looks a bit exposed and lacking in scope and should find a couple improve past him. His stable have also never had a Nursery winner before. PRINCE OF CHARM's stable dont specialise in nurserys and havent had a winner since 1992 in this sort of race.

This Leaves 4 Serious Runners

SPINNING CRYSTAL 3/1
LA MARMOTTE 6/1
WACHIWIW 12/1
TODWICK OWL 12/1

You have to respect SPINNING CRYSTAL especially from Barry Hill's stable but she is far from a good thing in this race. She is not that well bred. She has not shown much at all at big prices in Maidens. You have to consider the 41 days absence a negative. Barry Hills doesnt have that good a record with his Juveniles in Nurserys that have had 3 runs in Maidens as SPINNING CRYSTAL has had. Only about 1 in 15 of his runners like that win. She doesnt looked badly handicapped but she has a lot to prove and whilst she makes the shortlist I dont think she should be the selection. WACHIWI 12/1 is fine statistically but I am not convinced about her. I think she needs further than this and she has to come from a 5.5f race and that wont be easy but she does have 3 entries this week and her trainer does well with His
Nursery runners. I think the Interesting runners are TODWICK OWL 12/1 and LA MARMOTTE 9/2. What you have with TODWICK HALL is a horse thats got real scope and looks a decent horse physically. He has impressed paddock watchers this year and he could potentially be better than many if not all of these. He ran well last time at Haydock when not fancied in a Nursery and showed a lot of speed before failing for lack of fitness and that was understandable as he hadnt ran in 7 weeks and was a 100/1 chance. He looks the type to win Races this year and with a stable in great form he could well be the one.

LA MARMOTTE 9/2

She looks the best bet here. She is Interestingly well entered up this week. She is a little exposed but she sets a Good standard in this race. She has easily won a selling race by 3.5 lengths but either side of that win she has performed with credit when 3rd and 4th in 0-78 and 0-82 Nurserys races and considering this is just a 0-65 thats quite a bit better than this grade. Her last run in a 0-82 at Sandown was an excellent effort. That was over 7f. She set a strong pace. She was in front cantering all over the field after 5f . After 6f at Sandown she was still in front and only had one serious rival. In the end she was caught and passed by HEYWOOD. Thats no shame. HEYWOOD Came out and won a Class 2 handicap off 83 and thats 4 grades better than this race and LA MARMOTTE wasonly ran out of second late in the race . This Drop to 6f looks sensible.Her trainer describes her as "genuine" and has his horses in good health with a winner yesterday and she sets a clear standard on form.

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