Saturday

Best Bet of the Day

Newbury 2.10

Cool Panic 16/1 with a Saver on Bahianio 20/1

Attempting to end the weak in grand style . Its been a Mixed Week. Great Winners on Saturday and Sunday at 8/1 and 7/2 and since then 3 Losing Best Bets which included a Photo finish loss with Gigs Magic. Ending the week with a winner is not going to be easy as Cool Panic is 16/1 (18/1 Corals , 16/1 Ladbrokes) and I can only be hopefull and the saver is 20/1 as well so it wont be easy to get that race right. A Few other races looked at with positives and Negatives. I think and hope Fonthill Road can win the Great St Wilfred at Ripon but I intend to try and land a big priced winner today at Newbury and keep up some momentum for a great York meeting next week.

* There Will be One Message on either Sunday or Monday but I am unclear which day yet
* There Will be One Rest Day on the other day as I prepare for York
* York's Ebor meeting runs for 5 days from Tuesday
* There Will be a Competition on the Board for York with prize Money.

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Today's Racing


NEWMARKET and GOODWOOD are two of the hardest tracks in the country and I want to give them a swerve today. Big Fields are at both tracks. The Ground is debatable and
Neither meeting have been run consistently in recent years and neither offer a sound selection of Race Stats to work from. I think we should stay with Newbury and Ripon.

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NEWBURY 1.40 -3/1 Prince Forever, 7/2 Lights Of Vegas, 4/1 Thabaat, 7/1 Forefathers, 12/1 Private Reason, Ravi River, 16/1 Altar, Mujahaz, 20/1 Patavian,Traditionalist, 33/1 History Boy.

SELECTION - NONE

2 Year old Maiden. There are 6 outsiders in a field of 11 runners. If you assume a "fancied" horse will win you have 5 options. I cant be on FOREFATHERS as he was pulled out at Leicester due to soft ground and he has a fast ground profile. LIGHT OF VEGAS has the experience with one run and it is Fair to say that horses that have run do have the best record in this race and LIGHT OF VEGAS may well be the one but I cant advise this horse. Not only is his trained 0-18 at Newbury in August with his 2 year olds but the Dams produced 3 foals that average a rating of just 52 and the sire is 0-21 with his runners so far at over 6f trips and he isnt that attractive with that sort of profile taking on unraced horses with proven breeding. None of the other stables that run fancied horses have particularly great records in 2 year old maidens. It just looks a "guessers" race.

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NEWBURY 2.10 - 4/1 Bosset, 9/2 Polar Magic, 11/2 Trafalgar Bay, 13/2 Ans Bach, Intrepid Jack, 10/1 Obe Brave, 12/1 Bahiano, Imperial Echo, Jamieson Gold, 14/1 Meditation, 20/1 Cool Panic, Kingscross, 33/1 Grimes Faith.

SELECTION - COOL PANIC 14/1 with a saver on BAHIANO 20/1

I think there are a few stats here worth mentioning. BOSSET is a filly and has ran just 3 times and she is favourite for a 0-98 handicap and I cant have horse with that sort of profile. First of all the least experienced winner of this race had 4 starts. Horses with 3 runs havent won before and the record of runners with less than 9 career starts is just 1 winner from 46 runners. BOSSET is a 3 year old as is OBE BRAVE 18/1, TRAFALGAR BAY 8/1, ANS BACK 11/1 and JAMIESON GOLD. The 3 year old record in this race is interesting and I think predictable. Whilst an overall record of 2 wins from 69 runners puts 3 year olds as one of the worst age groups you can have the interesting angle is "which type" of 3 year old you have. Both 3 year old winners came before 1997 and both had already ran against Older Horses. The 3 year olds that came from a " 3 year old handicap" and who hadnt raced against older horses had a 0-34 record in this race and that tells me to Ignore and Oppose the 3 year olds this year. They may well win as they have 5 of the 8 fancied horses but the stats imply that if you find an older horse you like you really want to stay with them. I cant have the 3 year olds and one of them OBE BRAVE comes frrom Goodwood and horses that tried that in this race have a 0-42 record and dont see that as a good preperation. I would also question TRAFALGAR BAY on ground thats on the soft side from a sire thats never had a soft ground winner yet. I see this as a 4 horse race between these horses

COOL MAGIC 14/1
POLAR MAGIC 7/1
INTREPID JACK 8/1
BAHIANO 20/1

With INTREPID JACK his ability to stay 7f on good to soft ground isnt clear cut but he is a perfect type and I have to make him a positive. I have total respect for POLAR MAGIC as well but 7/2 hardly screams value. I think with INTREPID JACK and BAHIANO so much depends on the ground. Its Good to soft but it was a dry night and its quite possible that its not that soft. Rather trying to predict the unpredictable. I am making BAHIANO the saver at 20/1 . His weight isnt a problem as many winners carried high weights. I suppose the fact he is 20/1 has contributed to why I want to Save on him but if you want another reason have a look at the Video of last years renewal of this race. In 2005 BAHIANO started 15/2 to win that race. The Form book shows he was beaten 3 lengths into 8th place which isnt that great but watch the video and watch him cruise in the last furlong and a half where he was the only runner that wasnt touched by the whip and he finished "hard held" and was visably capable of so much better. If he can get within 3 lengths without any kind of pressure in the last furlong (and the video is worth watching) then I think he can expect to go close in this. His last run in the Tote International wasnt great but that race has provided the winner of this race before and He can improve on that run today. Yes he may want it a bit faster, and yes he may be a couple of lbs too high in the weights but
thats why he is 20/1 and I think he is value. I have to be with COOL PANIC though from Michael Bells for these reasons

a) The Newmarket Handicap he ran in last Saturday is the KEY Trial for this race providing the winner of this in 1994, 1995 and 2001
b) Loves Soft Ground
c) Wasnt fancied last week after a 77 day lay off and a bad draw
d) He is a Well bred horse with quality siblings proven at this trip
e) He has been running himself fit all year and has dropped 11lbs in the weights in the meantine
f) Office Money has been seen for him.

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NEWBURY 3.10 - 6/4 Guadalajara, 100/30 Munsef, 9/2 Jadalee, 11/2 Galient, 7/1 Admiral´s Cruise, 25/1 Self Defense, 50/1 Tiger Tiger.

SELECTION - Guadalajara or Jadalee should win with Munsef and Galient negatives

The Geoffrey Freer has always been a bad stats race and 7 runners this year doesnt make for easy betting. I Would ignore the 2 outsiders Self Defense and Tiger Tiger as both would be the most exposed ever winners. I want to be against GALIENT as well. In the last 20 years every winner had more experience than GALIENT and I feel thats a good enough reason to oppose him. Other than that its a pretty miserable race and I couldnt split the other 4 runners on a statistical benefit. I Want to Oppose MUNSEF as well. This is almost 14f and he is by Zafonic . There are not many Zafonic's that stay 14 furlongs. This is a new trip for MUNSEF. The sire has had well over 300 winners from his offspring and only 3 were at distances of 13 furlongs or more. I Am not saying MUNSEF Cant stay this trip what I am saying is that its "Unlikely" that a Zafonic can stay 14f in this class. The Sire has has never had a winner in this class of race over this long a trip before. In Listed and Group class Zafonic hasnt had a winner beyond 12f and Unless they go a silly crawl I would expect MUNSEF To fail for stamina in this sort of class and he is a Negative. He may go and win but the offspring of Zafonic have run between them well over 2600 times and none of them won over 12f in pattern class before and I dont think MUNSEF will be the first. I sort of run into dead ends now. I am conscious its 7 runners and no each way . I dont want to go with the Obious GUADALAJARA at 13/8 as she is a short price. I am temped by JADALEE but there the ground isnt certain to suit. I would be looking at these 2 runners as likely to provide the winner and wouldnt really mind which was selected. I just think you should avoid Munsef and Galient.

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NEWBURY 3.45 - Evs Caradak, 7/2 Jeremy, 11/2 Etlaala, 10/1 Jedburgh, Welsh Emperor, 20/1 Mac Love, Royal Power, 25/1 Sir Xaar.

SELECTION - NONE

There has to be a mistake in here somewhere as I dont fancy any of them. I cant have WELSH EMPEROR. He would be the oldest winner in the last 20 years and none of them came from a 6f race. I am going to oppose the 3 year olds JEREMY , ROYAL POWER and SIR XAAR. Its complicated. In the olden days 3 year olds dominated. They won this race every year between 1987 and 1993. Then all of a sudden they stopped winning. I may be wrong but I think its down to the weight for age scale changing and that gave them a harder task. Horses aged 3 have only won one race since 1996 and that was Muhtathir who soon after won a Group 2 race and won in a year where most runners were 3 year olds. I just feel you have to take recent trends if they show more relevance than older ones. JEREMY is the most fancied 3 year old and he comes from Goodwood as did 6 of the last 7 winners of this race. You could take that as a positive but in reality it was the Sussex Stakes that is the best trial for this race and no horse has come from that race this year. I am against JEREMY though and all his age group. I dont think JEDBURGH is easy to fancy and he doesnt look too fancied at 16/1 and weak in the market. ETLAALA has now gone 11 races in Group class without winning and he would want faster ground. CARADAK from the In Form Godolphin stable must have a strong chance today. With CARARAK if you want to try and get him beaten you have these possible trends. We havent see a last time out winner since 1998. No past winner came from Newbury as a prep race and not one of the last 20 winners had 1 race that season. I think to be honest that may put me off a short priced horse like CARADAK and I am struggling with a selection I can endorse with any confidence.

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RIPON


Ripon 2.30 - Evs La Neige, 5/2 Holdin Foldin, Smart Instinct, 50/1 Mandy´s Maestro, 200/1 Bidders Itch.

SELECTION - LA NEIGE

Conditions race with 3 realistic runers . LA NEIGE (7 runs) and HOLDIN FOLDIN (4 runs) have an edge in fitness and experience over SMART INSTINCT the once raced horse. When you consider that horses with less than 3 runs in this race have a 1-22 record, and horses with 4 or more starts have a 6-19 record it strongly suggests that experience is invaluable. I cant fancy SMART INSTINCT. He won a maiden yet LA NEIGE was beaten just 2 lengths in a Group 2 race a massive difference in class and SMART INSTINCT will have to become the first "Maiden winner" to win this as all 16 that tried to win this coming from a maiden Lost. SMART INSTINCT has to be a Negative. What also steers me towards LA NEIGE as the selection is that all 8 winners of this race came from an 6 furlong race and Both Holdin Foldin and Smary Instinct come from a 5f race. Holdin Foldin also has a "double penalty" and carries a weight no horse has been asked to carry in this race before. Every Angle you look at it all points to LA NEIGE winning. At 8/11 he isnt for me but I think he will win and I think I would rather bet Holdin Foldin to place or without the favourite rather than Smart Instinct who I see as the weaker of the 2 dangers to the favourite.

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RIPON 3.00 - 2/1 Reem Al Fallah, 6/1 Fadeyev, 13/2 Lafontaine Bleu, Para Siempre, 8/1 Aitutaki, Onatopp, 14/1 Juvenescent, Nomoreblondes, 16/1 Surprise Pension, 20/1 First Valentini, Interest, Silly Gilly, 50/1 Finlay´s Footsteps, 66/1 Woodland Traveller, 100/1 Hesaguru.

Selection - REEM AL FALLAH

Unraced horses havent won this race since 1997 and an overall 1-51 record puts me off PAPA SIEMPRE 13/2 and SURPRISE PENSION 16/1. Every past winner ran within the last month and thats another thing I would demand. I would be quite worried that AITUTAKI 8/1 wont like the ground and the same is said about First Valentini. There look to be 5 likely winners at this stage but if you ignore the runners that droped in trip from a 7f race (all 23 that did that lost) then you can question Fadeyev (who has a weight no past winner has carried) and Onatopp and Juvenescent. The strongest profiles belong to REEM AL FALLAH and LAFONTAINE BLEU. Both have some experience and are the best profiles in the race. I Think you have to go with REEM AL FALLAH as the selection. I am going to reject Lafontaine Blue as the Dam had 7 other foals and every one turned out selling class or 0-65 class and he isnt likely to be decent so I have to stay with the more experienced REEM AL FALLAH 2/1

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SATURDAY RIPON 3:30 William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+,0-105) 6f

9/1 Fonthill Road, 10/1 Excusez Moi, Machinist, Tagula Sunrise, Zomerlust, 12/1 Fantasy Believer, Ice Planet, Rising Shadow, 16/1 Desert Commander, King´s Gait, 20/1 Coleorton Dancer, Continent, Josh, Obe Gold, Pieter Brueghel, Traytonic, 25/1 Bond City, Fullandby, Mr Wolf, Crimson Silk

Selection - FONTHILL ROAD

My Strategy in the Great St Wilfrid this year is Simple. The First thing I am doing is taking out Horses that are 40/1 or more in the Betting. What I find quite interesting is the dreadful record of horses coming from the last Goodwood meeting. With all the high quality sprints at Goodwood like the Stewards Cup you would have thought Goodwood was a natural "Launching pad" for this race but it isnt. What happens with the "Connection" with this race and Goodwoods races is that when Goodwood is run 2 weeks before this horses do Not have the Recovery time to peak. When Goodwood is ran 3 weeks before this race they do seem to do that. As an example in 1993 when Hard To Figure won this race, and in 1989 when Thornfield Boy won this race on Both Occasions they came from Goodwood and had a 3 week break before winning this race. In years where there have been a 2 week break the Goodwood horses had flopped as I dont think enough recovery time is there. The stats show that this is highly likely to be true. Take Horses that ran in this race that Come From Goodwood and that race within the last 2 weeks and you find that the record of these horses is 0-56 . Goodwood has never been a track that winners of this race ran in when they had just a 2 week break. My Strategy is to Oppose the Horses that ran within the last 2 weeks at Goodwood and these include Bond City , Continent , Desert Commander , Excusez Moi and Fantasy Believer . The next Step is to Look at the Draw. The Draw analysis I have read sugests 2 things. Firstly the general opinion is a High Draw is a Big Advantage. Not sure about that myself as many fancied horses are drawn low but they also suggest that "Middle draws" have pretty dreadful records and it makes sense not to have a horse stuck in the middle. I am keeping the 8 highest drawn horses and the 8 Lowest drawn horses in my shortlist. We still have too many on that.

Low Drawn Shortlist - Coleorton Dancer - Machinist - Ice Planet - Pieter Brueghel

High Drawn Shortlist - Fonthill Road - Obe Gold -King´s Gait -Mr Wolf -Tagula Sunrise - Zomerlust - Josh - Rising Shadow

I have to reduce the List. I am taking the genewal view that a HIGH DRAW should prevail. MR WOLF has the ground against him. I am taking out Obe Gold, Josh and Pietre Brueghal as None of these horses managed a 1st or 2nd place on their last 6 starts. Every single winner of the Great St Wilfred had won or come second in one of their last 6 races and as these three havent they are out. FITNESS could be very crucial here. After all this is soft ground and I have noticed that Every winner since 1997 (Except Pipalong in 1999) ran within 15 days. I think you want a horse with a very recent run. Eight of the Last 9 winners ran within the last 15 days and the only one that didnt was Pipalong who went on to be a Group 1 winner and he really only had a 20 day absence that year. So in conclusion I want a horse with a recent run that didnt come from Goodwood, thats drawn high , acts on the ground and isnt a massive price in the betting. I think FONTHILL ROAD has to be seriously considered. FONTHILL ROAD hasnt had a run but he goes very well fresh, this is a drop in class and I Like his chance a Lot. The Dangers for me are TAGULA SUNRISE, JOSH, KINGS GAIT and OBE GOLD But his ability to go well fresh and his proven class lead me to FONTHLL ROAD as the selection.

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RIPON 4.05 - 3/1 Somersault, 7/2 Let Slip, 6/1 And Again, Apsara, 8/1 Gelder, 10/1 Cheviot Heights, 16/1 Wasalat, 20/1 Lady Disdain, 25/1 Word Perfect

SELECTION - LET SLIP 7/2 Each Way

Statistically I find that you dont really want horses coming from a Maiden race as favourite SOMERSAULT 3/1 and CHEVIOT HEIGHTS 10/1 try to do. All 9 that tried to do that in this Ripon race Lost . Thats not a significant stat in itself but looking at all Fillies Handicaps at this sort of distance at other tracks horses that tried to come from a maiden had a pretty weak record of just 1 winner from 34 runners. I think that suggests I would be off looking away from the Stoute favourite SOMERSAULT. He has an obvious chance but at a short price in a race attractive for each way betting I am looking at better value options. When you look at Stoute's record in Fillies Handicaps with his fillies that had 3 runs before and that came from a Maiden he has a record of 2 winners from the 20 times he has tried it. Just 10% Sucess rate and thats poor for a Genuis like Stoute. I am opposing SOMERSAULT. I also want a run within the last few weeks as every filly had one in this race and almsot every other Fillies handicaps at other tracks as well. I think WASALAT is doubtful to act on the ground. Every past winner also had at least 2 runs that year and managed to finish in the first 6 places last time out. The Likely profiles belong to 4/1 Let Slip, 5/1 And Again, 6/1 Apsara and 8/1 Gelder. I think GELDER is doubtful to want 10f . APSARA troubles me after so much rain so I feel LET SLIP may well outclass them. With 2 non
runners if you assume that Wasalat wont win at 28/1 he carries 7lbs more than every other runner and looks like he has a 0-68 field to beat and he is more than capable of doing that. He has won on soft ground and I think around 7/2 LET SLIP is the best each way bet in the race.

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RIPON 4.40 - 5/2 Slipperfoot, 5/1 All Clued Up, 6/1 Alone It Stands, How´s She Cuttin´, 7/1 Glamaraazi, 8/1 Weakest Link, 14/1 Signor Whippee, 20/1 Dominello, Harrington Bates, 25/1 Bond Sea Breeze, Born For Diamonds, Game Bertie, 100/1 Hiats.

SELECTION - Best profiles come from Weakest Link, Harrington Bates , Alone It Stands and Glamaraazi and Hopefully the market will make this clearer laterThis is dreadfull. Dire quality. With SLIPPERFOOT I couldnt bet a horse from a sire that has a 0-33 record with all 8 of his offspring . The average rating of his sires offspring is just 53 . The Dams not produced a soft ground winner yet from 4 runners and I question his ability to handle the ground. I couldnt have ALL
CLUED UP 5/1. How can you fancy a horse that started 11/1 in an apprentice Wolverhampton Handicap last time. What I would strongly advise you to do in this race is consider 2 things. Firstly see if any of the "older" horses are well backed and fancied like Weakest Link and Harrington Bates as Older runners have a Good strike rate in this race. Secondly watch for money for "Once raced" runners like ALONE IT STANDS and GLAMARAAZI . Horses with one race have a
surprisingly good strike rate and its interesting that Both ALONE IT STANDS and GLAMARAAZI have siblings far better than this grade and I think they are both bred well enough to expect to win a race like this.

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RIPON 5.45 - 7/4 Cabriole, 6/1 Montana, Tatillius, 7/1 Ponty Carlo, 9/1 Musette, The Salwick Flyer, 10/1 Tyrone Lady, 11/1 Orpenlina, 20/1 City Miss, The Keep, 33/1 Vibrato, 50/1 Bella Marie, 66/1 Boppys Dancer.

SELECTION - Best profiles come from Montana, The Keep , Vibrati and Ponty Carlo

This is Division 2 of the 5.15 race and I would urge you to consider the same 2 possible angles in the race. Firstly see if any of the "older" horses are well backed and fancied like MONTANA 6/1 , The Keep 20/1 and Vibrato 33/1 as Older runners have a Good strike rate in this race. Secondly watch for money for the"Once raced" runner PONTY CARLO as Horses with one race have a surprisingly good strike rate and PONTY CARLO is bred well enough to expect to win
a race like this.

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