No Account Bet

Quiet Day Today as Planned. Only 1 race appealed to me in an attempt to find some value and that was the Novice Handicap Hurdle at Hereford (2.20) where I have had
some 16/1 about a horse called Super Judge. I think he is the Value.

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Today's Racing

As stated yesterday a Short message today. I am not in the best of form at the moment. This is the first November I have done for a couple of years and it hasnt been an easy transition. The Month seems dominated by big stable seasonal debutants and with poor weather and a dip in form we are just in a short period of time where we are struggling a little. At the moment I am chasing the game a little rather than being ahead of it and I think all we can do at the moment is Hold fire from having strong bets until the right one comes up.

The Account is at it's highest ever figure at the moment. We are several hunded pounds ahead at the moment and Had we been more agressive with staking some of the Best Bets of the Day earlier in the year that would have been several thousand pounds ahead. I have said it before and although it is boring the last few months results have been exceptional and although we are managing to bet the same horses now on the account and moving away from Best Bets of the day some days there are no clear oppurtunities at decent prices and you have to endure several quiet days before the right bets come along . The only thing that matters at the moment is to get that account as far ahead as possible. We are at the point where we are far enough ahead to bet with confidence and see the light at the end of the tunnel and realistically look in good shape to win a lot of money. However we are not far ahead enough yet not to have to be very careful that we dont undo all the hard work and winners we have had in the last few months. I Dont mind waiting for bets but what I dont like is putting sub standard analysis up even that are not bets than you bet which dont win and fritter any profits gained on the account. I did that yesterday and I find that harder to cope with than Losing Account bets. At the moment I am just going to wait until the right horse and race comes up and it has to be at the right price.

I see Pricewise have nailed their colours in the Hennessy to Turpin Green at a price nobody could gave got. It wasnt a bad article. The Horse has a very good chance of winning this years race. I think the race is quite easy this year. I intend to bet in the race quite shortly and I may do that at the weekend. I feel I have some fresh angles in the race that open the race up. I may still take a Day off soon to sort out the Hennessy. The difference between getting the Hennessy winner can be massive. If we get that race right then we could win huge ammounts on the account and sweep away the few losing bets we have had this month. Get the race wrong and it adds to the pressure. This week the Hennessy is my top priority alongside Friday and Sunday's racing. I may swerve the Saturday to make sure I get Friday and Sunday right.

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HEREFORD 2.20 - Bet With iBetX.com Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Class 4) (3yo+,0-100) 2m3f110y

4/1 Ponchatrain, 9/2 Sarin, 7/1 Belledesaro, Mistified, 8/1 Earl Of Spectrum, 9/1 Hollandia, Marronnier, 11/1 Super Judge, 16/1 Allez Melina, 20/1 Ilongue, 25/1 Alexander Musical, 33/1 Quainton Hills.

SELECTION - SUPER JUDGE 16/1

I feel 16/1 about SUPER JUDGE is probably worth a Modest Bet. I have had some of that. He cant be described as a Good thing by any means but few can win this race and he is one that can and he is too big not to have a small bet on. MISTIFIED 4/1 is certainly very interesting as the Solid Each way bet in the race but I also think the best outsider is SUPER JUDGE 16/1 and at the prices I want to take a small chance on him. I think you can rule a lot of these horses out. I dont want the 3 year old MARRONNIER 16/1. We have never had a winner of this race that had 4 or more runs that season and 3 year olds dont score well enough in this sort of race against their elders to be of much interest. I dont want the outsiders Ilongue 50/1or Alexander Musical 50/1 who have both flopped in this race before or Quanito Hills 33/1 patently out of form. You cant fancy ALLEZ MELINA 16/1 on anything she has done lately and she looks overexposed this year. Henrietta Knight runs HOLLANDIA 10/1 who has ran just 4 times before. I dont think this trainer is likely to have a winner of a handicap that is so inexperienced. In the last 15 years Henrietta Knight has ran 65 horses in handicaps that had less than 5 career starts as HOLLANDIA has today. Only one of those 65 horses won and that was back in 1992. This included 26 horses that under 8/1 and included 7 beaten favourites and 16 beaten second and third favourites. Everything about Henrietta Knights training regime suggests to me that HOLLANDIA will need more time before winning. I feel the same about Heather Dalton's BELLEDESARO who comes here with just 3 runs in Novice Hurdles. Heather Dalton has never won a handicap with a horse with 3 hurdle runs before. I think PONCHATRAIN 7/1 may want faster ground than he will get today and I have to be against him ridden by a 10lbs claimer. I think SARIN 13/2 may want faster ground and He has a 273 day absence to overcome when his trainer Venetia Williams has only ever had 1 seasonal debutant winner in Novice Handicap Hurdles before. Being by Deploy I think he would be happier on fast ground and the record in this race of horses aged 8 or more is 1-56 and that has to be of some concern about his chance.. I respect EARL OF SPECTRUM but he has to concede weight to every runner in the race and he wouldnt fit the pattern of past winners in having ran so many times before. I think MISTIFIED has some good solid consistent recent form. The Racing Post make the point that he is still a maiden but so were 10 of the 13 past winners of this race. He is at least fit and handles the ground and has course and distance form. Two runs ago he was 3rd over Course and Distance in a 0-95 contest. That wasnt a bad race. This is about the same class today and that 3rd may be good enough to win this especially as MISTIFIED was having his first run in 5 months that day. He has since ran Ok in a much better race over longer than 3 miles and that trip was probably unsuitable as his sire has never bred a winner as far as that and the Dams other 4 offsprings all had 16f-21f as their optimum trips. MISTIFIED is solid enough. He may find one to beat him but he is most likely to give you a run for your money. The other horse I like is SUPER JUDGE at about 18/1. His trainer has Plenty of winners in this grade. Like the vast majority of past winners in this race he is a maiden. He has Irish Form that suggests he should be very competetive in this grade. He came over 2 runs ago. He wasnt a cheap horse either at £20,000 . He needed his comeback run at Worcester in October after a 6 months lay off. His last race was interesting. It was over 2 miles and he clearly needed further than that. It was a stronger race than this. Todays Highest rated horse is rated 98 yet last time SUPER JUDGE faced 9 horses rated over 100. He was beaten 12 lengths but he was hampered over the last and could have finished a few lengths closer and that was over a trip far too short. I think he is the best age (5) like 4 of the last 7 winners were. He will improve at this trip and he could easily get into the shake up here in a poor race. If you look at the last 11 winners of this race you find SUPER JUDGE fits the profile of 10 of these. Ten of the last 11 winners were Male horses Aged 4-5-6 that started under 20/1 that had not won before and that had less than 13 career starts and several of these were 5 year olds and had high weights. At 16/1 I like the profile of SUPER JUDGE. Certainty he is Not but he is worth a stab at the price.Ladbrokes have ducked him at 11/1 when Corals , BetDirect and others go 16/1.

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