Lots of rain today. York has had 9mm overnight ensuring the ground will be very soft now. Salisbury's ground has also turned soft overnight following heavy rain as has Carlisle's ground and nowhere has escaped the bad weather. If there is an Account Bet I will send it later at 4pm. I am looking at one closely at Carlisle this evening and it makes sense to see what the weather and non runners are doing and have a bit more time. Some really interesting racing today despite the weather. At Salisbury I like DAYROSE each way at 7/2 in the Maiden (2.25) in a race that should be dominated by 4 lightly raced fillies. I also felt I had every chance of sorting out 4.05
Fillies Handicap as I have a lovely negative in the race but much as I have tried I am not sure which of the alternatives to side with. At York I am firmly behind SWINBROOK in the 1.45 and agree with Pricewise that He is the best bet on the card at 9/2. There is a Possible Bet Later .


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Today's Racing


York 1:45 - totesport.com Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+,0-100) 5f

11/4 Desert Commander, 4/1 Swinbrook, 9/2 Orientor, 7/1 Zowington, 8/1 King´s Gait, 12/1 Cape Royal, 14/1Trinculo, 16/1 Desperate Dan, Fromsong, 20/1 Enchantment, Just James

Selection - SWINBROOK 4/1

SWINBROOK 4/1 has a completely Flawless profile and the Key to his chance is how he gets on back at 5 furlongs today . There are some fascinating angles in this race. This is a high class sprint handicap. You have to be fully tuned up and Fit to win this. I think the strongest trend is that Horses that raced just once this year have a miserable 1 from 56 record since 1990. This is an important statistic. Sprinters rarely get fit after just 1 race. You have to go back to 1997 for the only winner of this to have raced just once and that was a Peter Harris horse who was described as "best fresh" . That 1 from 56 record included 6 beaten favourites and 21 horses that started under 10/1 . If you want further evidence , Look at the last 6 years results. There are 18 places available (6 years of winners, 2nds and 3rds) and the number of races the 18 horses had that year were 2-2-2-4-2-4-2-3-2-2-3-5-3-3-2-2-2-2 . Not one horse was placed with just 1 race this year. This is why I feel ZOWINGTON has to be opposed . People will assume that having won his only race this year makes him race fit but fitness doesn't work that way and many horses that won on their seasonal debuts and came here lost. The other horse that has to be opposed according to that angle is favourite DESERT COMMANDER but I want to treat him separately and deal with him later. ZOWINGTON is opposed though. I want to Oppose JUST JAMES as a seasonal debutant . I think that Seasonal debutants should be avoided. One did win from 29 that tried but that was in 1996 and none have gone close since and Just James is hard to fancy. Another fascinating angle for me concerns the preparation a Horse has. There had been 57 horses that ran within a week of their last start and None managed to win. You would have thought a horse that ran recently would have an advantage in a sprint but it doesn't work out like that. In races like this its a big disadvantage as horses are laid out for the race. Look at the 5f Sprint Handicap run at Chester last week.

That race is a Graveyard trial race for this race. All 40 horses that ran in The Chester race lost in this race. Today CAPE ROYAL 12/1 , TRINCULO 14/1 and ENCHANTMENT 20/1 all ran in that Chester race and have to be negatives because of that. If one does win then the explanation will be easy. They were all well beaten and dint have hard races last week but I don't fancy them anyway. TRINCULO is far older than every past winner of this race and comes from a stable (Dandy Nicholls) that are 0-18 in this race. ENCHANTMENT and CAPE ROYAL are Milton Bradley runners and he is 0-11 in this race as well. ORIENTOR is a race fit horse and has Fallon on board and his stable have won this race for the last 2 seasons so lots to like about him. I am not convinced though. He has ran in Group 1 class before and is deteriorating and no horse has successfully carried his weight to victory in this race in the last 20 years. Horses that had 9st 9lbs or more haven't won this in the last 2 decades and all 30 were beaten and thats a big negative for ORIENTOR who is also an age (8) that has also not won this race in the last 20 years. FROMSONG with just 1lbs less (9st 8lbs) is also rejected as no horse his age has ever won this race either since my records started in 1986. DESPERATE DAN looks outclassed. The winner has to be one of 3 horses

11/4 Desert Commander 4/1 Swinbrook 10/1 King´s Gait

I have to make DESERT COMMANDER a Negative. Partly because he has run just the once this year when really impressive winning at Thirsk. (He could easily bounce today). He would also be by far the most inexperienced winner of this race. He has ran just 4 times before and every one of the last 20 winners had all ran at least 7 times before. The record of horses with less than 7 career races behind them is 0-21 and that includes the 2004 favourite who flopped, the 1996 and 1997 favourite and the 1990 favourite. It is a really hard thing for DESERT COMMANDER to achieve. He has to be a negative because of his profile. The only reason I promoted him to the final shortlist was that he was so impressive at Thirsk and that track, and that race is a fantastic trial race for this York contest. 3 of the last 4 winners , and 6 of the last 12 winners came from Thirsk before winning this race. He is respected because of that but his inexperience and fitness do make him vulnerable and he is rejected. He can not be the selection with his profile but I must admit his last run really tempts me to save on him as much as he doesnt fit the correct profile he does look a bit "Different" to your usual types of horse and there is no saying how good this horse is. I would certainly give him a chance much as I hate his profile. KINGS GAIT has a solid chance if he can run to his best. He didnt do enough for me at Newmarket last time out albeit drawn on the wrong side and eased down. He will love the ground. If you knew he was laid out for the race and strongly fancied then 10-1 would be a serioulsy good price . I suspect he wont win though. Tim Easterby , a hard man to read is 1-27 with his 3 year old handicappers at this meeting and I think advising a bet on KINGS GAIT would be far too unsafe much as he has the right profile. Surely SWINBROOK will win if he handles the trip. This race has 3 times been won by horses dropping in trip so it can be done. I wont quote chapter and verse about his form. Pricewise and other outlets have done that today and I feel they have the right selection. He wont mind the rain and is statistically perfect. I must admit James Toller isn't one of my favourite trainers but he has had a couple of winners recently and I am pretty confident that SWINBROOK is the correct type you need to win this race and he is the selection.

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Salisbury 2:25 - Windsor plc Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div I) (Class 4) (3yo+) 1m1f198y

5/2 Dayrose, 11/4 Jewaar, 9/2 Novellara, 6/1 Dimelight, 20/1 Kathleen Kennet, Loriinae, 25/1 Colinette, Dream Witness, 50/1 Volaire, 100/1 Phills Pearl

Selection - DAYROSE

Michael Jarvis's JEWAAR 13/8 is a heavily backed favourite on the strength of glowing Gallop reports but given the frame of the race I would just prefer

DAYROSE in a really interesting maiden race. Michael Stoute who runs DAYROSE has a superb record when he sends his 3 year old fillies to Salisbury in May in fillies races. Just look at his record in this race. He won both divisions of this race in 2005. He won it in 2004 and 2003 and in 2000. There have been 24 divisions of this race. Stoute has sent 22 horses to this race and come away with 9 winners and multiple places. When his horses are having their seasonal debutant after just 1 race as a juvenile just as DAYROSE is having they have a superb 7 wins from 11 runs record. This record strongly suggests DAYROSE deserves maximum respect. It is also interesting that 3 of Stoutes winners came from Newmarket's July course as she does today. All her that did that came out first time and won this race. Her market rival is an unraced Michael Jarvis horse JEWAAR whose in the Oaks and has been the subject of interesting Gallop reports. She could be anything but she is unraced and Tom Segal did say in a Column that she was apparently "temperamental" at home. That may or may not be true but with the Stoute record I would be happier staying with DAYROSE. There are plenty of stables here with sound records. Henry Cecil has a good pedigree in this race and his Novellara is respected , as is David Elsworth's DIMELIGHT but the trainer trends strongly point to the Stoute Horse DAYROSE and I rate her the best bet in the race at the prices because of the superb record Stoute has in the race.

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York 2:45 - totesport Dante Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo) 1m2f88y

9/4 Septimus, 4/1 Best Alibi , 4/1 Leningrad , 9/2 Palace Episode, 12/1 The Last Drop, 20/1 Snoqualmie Boy

I would be against LENINGRAD simply as he has only had 1 race. Going back to 1986 No Horse has won the Dante with just 1 previous race. its true that only 14 tried but they all failed and LENINGRAD has to defy those trends today. In fact 3 of the last 4 to try came Last , and that included last years Sussex stakes winner Proclamation. They did have the runner up in 2003 (Tuning Fork) but that was a very poor Dante and I want to be against LENNINGRAD. His maiden form is hardly solid. The 2nd 3rd 4th and 5th behind him in his maiden all got beaten on their next starts. I have to be against him. I am also against THE LAST DROP 12/1 and SNOQUALMIE 20/1 as 12 of the last 13 winners managed to win at 7f or a Mile as a juvenile and neither of these did that. In winning the Racing Post Trophy last Autumn PALACE EPISODE 7/2 beat SEPTIMUS 9/4 and BEST ALIBI 4/1. The Racing Post Trophy has provided 3 recent winners of the Dante and that looks a solid trial race. Clearly todays winner should be one of Septimus , Best Alibi or Palace Episode. Which of these 3 runners turn out the best today will probably be a direct result of just how soft the ground is and what kind of "soft" will it be. You wont be able to shed any light on that and you will just have to see how they go through it but you are wasting your time guessing about breeding stats and past records. With no each way appeal to the race its a question of trying to select the sensible choice of these 3 runners. Godolphins PALACE EPISODE 7/2 won the Racing Post Trophy for Kevin Ryan at 20-1 before moving to winter in Dubai having joined Godolphin. He is clearly a very useful tool but what worries me a lot about him is the stable stating he "hasn't grown much over the winter". That makes me wonder if he has trained on as much as some of the others. He was after all well raced as a 2 year old. I am overlooking him today especially with Godolphin not firing at their best so far this season. Of course he can win but I want the shortlist down and he is the first to be rejected. From BEST ALIBI and SEPTIMUS I marginally prefer SEPTIMUS for 2 reasons. Firstly in the Racing Post Trophy he started odds on and clearly far better fancied than Best Alibi who started 16/1. Secondly SEPTIMUS has also had a recent run . The last 2 winners of this race were seasonal debutants but they both won the Derby (Motivator and North Light) but 4 of the last 5 winners had ran that year and that shades it to SEPTIMUS on soft ground. SEPTIMUS is the selection in a very tight contest.

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Salisbury 2:55 - Windsor plc Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Div II) (Class 4) (3yo+) 1m1f198y

7/2 Garafena, Gouranga, 11/2 Knotted, 8/1 Consuelita, Tiz Timely, 10/1 Oh Glory Be, 20/1 Platinum Hound, 33/1 Khyber Knight, Mawazeen,

Selection - GOURANGA 3/1

I have to oppose GARAFENA 7/2 and CONSUELITA 8/1 for a couple of reasons. Firstly both have ran this year. This Maiden has about 2 divisions each year. In the 13 year History of this race there have been 22 divisions. Only 3 went to horses that have had a race this season. The last 20 Divisions have been dominated by seasonal debutants who have won 19 of them. Horses that ran this year were ssimply swamped by first time out horses. I am not that impressed with GARAFENA's breeding either. The Dams off-spring haven't turned out that well. With CONSUELIA I find it interesting that Brian Meehans record with his 3 year old Fillies in Maidens in May is 0-45 and he doesn't appear to have them ready to win at this time of year. The ground may well scupper these plans though . TIZ TIMELY is a horse that may not like the ground. The Sire has a fast ground look to him and Andrew Balding has sent 5 unraced 3 year olds to Salisbury and hasnt had a winner. I would also question Roger Charltons KNOTTED who also looks like she may turn out to be a top of the ground horse.I could only consider GOURANGA as the selection

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York 3:15 - Bank of Scotland Corporate Hambleton Stakes (Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (4yo+,0-110) 1m

7/4 Dabbers Ridge, 11/2 Stronghold, 13/2 Babodana, 8/1 Zero Tolerance, 10/1 Blythe Knight, Kings Point, 12/1 Tucker, 16/1 Chrysander, Pentecost, 25/1 Xtra Torrential, 40/1 Cool Panic, 66/1 Traytonic, 150/1 Imperialistic,

The position with the trends and history of this race is not simple. It had always been run over a few yards short of a Mile and it was dominated by lightly raced horses. Then in 2005 they reduced the distance to a 7f race and an older experienced runner (Quito) won the race. Now in 2006 we are back up a furlong to a Mile , which is slightly longer than the race has been run over before. Thats messy and doesn't leave you much confidence any stats will do. The only really interesting trend in this race for me concerns exposure. When the race was a "Mile" race , horses that had raced 21 or more times before had an appalling record. Since 1986 the exposed runners had a 1-60 record. The only winner was in 1998 (Ramooz) , in a small field and he was very lucky as there was traffic problems that day. I am going to apply those stats today and demand a lightly raced horse. Therefore I am going to oppose the experienced and established Babodana , Zero Tolerance, Blyth Knight , Kings Point, Pentecost , Traytonic, and Imperialistic. My own feeling is that ZERO TOLERANCE loves these conditions so much I would have to add him to a shortlist also containing DABBERS RIDGE 7/4 and STRONGHOLD 4/1. What tends to happen in this
race is that lightly raced horses like DABBERS RIDGE or STRONGHOLD do tend to overtake the exposed horses but these are desperate conditions and you cant assume that will happen today. At Chester last week DABBERS RIDGE was mightily impressive. He didnt have a hard race and I would have to rate him by far the most likely winner of this. I wouldn't say he was the best value in the world but he is the pick in a race I could only consider the favourite or one of Stronghold or Zero Tolerance.

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Salisbury 4:05 - Bridgend Hotel, Islay Fillies' Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m4f

3/1 Pine Cone, Queen Of Iceni, 6/1 Ti Adora, 7/1 Maystock, 8/1 Aoninch, Trompette, 12/1 Almah, Sunisa, 20/1 Love Always,

There should be a really good each way bet here against a horse (Queen Of Iceni) I must try and Oppose. I have to be against QUEEN OF ICENI 9/2 as John Dunlop drops her back from 2 miles to 12f on her second run of the year. This isn't a filly that wants dropping back in trip. She is from the wonderful mare Princess Genista. The majority of her very classy family all radically improved in the second half of their 3 year old campaign and when stepped up to 2 miles. QUEEN OF ICENI Won her maiden last October at 14 furlongs. The family are really quite predictable. Her brothers and sisters all excelled over 2 mile trips. She is related to fabulous stayers like Give Notice , Heir To Be, Race The Ace, Sovenista and Stoop to Conquer who all improved markedly late in their 3 year
old campaigns. The family have all been late improvers. QUEEN OF ICENI RAN well on her debut at Newbury over 2 miles but the fact she comes back in trip suggests to me she wont win this race. The Dams record with her classy offspring have lost all 24 times that they raced at 12f or less yet they have racked up 15 wins at longer distances. You only have to look at her half brother Stoop To Conquer who is fancied at York today in the 2m 4f race. She will not win today in my opinion. I don't think she will place either. John Dunlop knows this family better than his own family. He will know she wants further than 12f . I am guessing but I feel this isn't her target and I am taking the view that this is a prep race for a later target at a longer trip. This is why I don't feel she will place
today. I think there is probably a decent each way bet against her.

The ground change worries me for MAYSTOCK. She does handle a little cut in the ground but she also looks a better Mare on faster ground. She is hard to predict but she has done really well since moving to Brendan Powell winning several times and running with a lot more consistency than she did for Gerard Butler. She is a horse that could let you down especially on this ground much as she also has the ability to win. Her course and distance form is a Big plus as is her well being and the Warwick win just 5 days ago but repeating that on softer ground wont be easy. TI ADORA has to be respected but you would expect her to be better for the run today and her stable dont often have them ready to win first time out and the trainers horses are 0-23 when running in fillies handicaps. I would have thought AONINCH would need the run on her debut . This leaves 3 interesting "National Hunt" runners .

TROMPETTE 5/1 could be interesting from Nicky Hendersons stable. She cost Henderson £50,000 at the Sales and has so far won 2 Novice Hurdles but the interesting thing for me is she has been running all winter on bad ground she wouldn't have liked much being by Bahri. Henderson has a good record when he runs horses in handicaps on the flat and he may well have improved her. If the ground didnt stop her winning Novice Hurdles it shouldnt stop her winning this. I must adit I am not sure TROMPETTE is a guaranteed stayer in this race. Not many of her sires prodginy get 12 furlongs . Alan King runs PINE CONE who is a bit of a mystery. Statistically Alan Kings record with runners like this isn't great. He has no great record with his handicappers either in May, or in Fillies handicaps, or on their seasonal debuts or at Salisbury before but PINE CONE will like the conditions and if she stays she wont be far away. Venetia Williams trains ALMAH another National Hunt runner that has soft ground form and she will certainly stay. It isnt easy finding the "correct" alternative to the negative Queen Of Iceni especially with so many "Jumping stables" involved, and the ground and stamina issues but an each way bet against the Dunlop
horse would certainly be the best way to go in the race.

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York 4:55 - toteexacta Handicap (Class 4) (4yo+,0-85) 1m5f197y

5/1 Velvet Heights, 8/1 Dr Sharp, 9/1 Modaffaa, Wing Collar, 10/1 Cotton Eyed Joe, Sphinx, 12/1 Duroob, Maneki Neko, 14/1 Reluctant Suitor, Zaville, Motafarred, Sualda, 20/1 Indonesia, Ski Jump, 50/1 Top Man Tee

Last year a 4 year old won the race but I feel that age group are really disadvantaged. The fact a 4 year old won last year for me was down to the fact they dominated the race numerically and the vast majority of fancied horses in last years renewal were 4 year olds. In fact I was sick as a Dog last year. I had shortlisted 3 horses in this race and Had the 2nd 3rd and 4th at 25/1, 5/1 and 6/1 only to be beaten by a 4 year old DUNDRY who is favourite to repeat his win in this years race. Despite last years sickener I am going to oppose the 4 year olds again. Traditionally 4 year olds have had little chance in this race and are just not ready for it in my opinion. There have now been 73 that tried to win this as 4 year olds and many were beaten favourites. Celeric managed it in 1996
under Willie Carson. Celeric went on and won a Yorkshire Cup and a Gold Cup and multiple listed races and was a superb animal that defied many equine principles. Then we had Dundry last year in a race saturated by 4 year olds. I am prepared to overlook those two winners and demand an older horse. I don't want a Seasonal debutant. The record of Seasonal debutants is poor (1-33) . The only horse that won this as a debutant was John Hill's Dominant Duchess who was very well handicapped as she proved by winning the Queen Alexandra and the Shergar Cup Stayers race off a 10lbs higher mark. She was also "Best fresh" and won on her 3, 5 and 6 year old debuts. She was an exception. Unless you are convinced you have a well handicapped horse that has a proven
record when fresh you can cross them out with confidence. So All I am asking for is a horse thats ran this year and is aged 5 or more. I wont be aiming to finalise a clear cut selection in such an open race but my Shortlist would be one from 8/1 Dr Sharp, 9/1 Modaffaa, 10/1 Sphinx or 25/1 Cotton Eyed Joe

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Carlisle 6:30 - European Breeders Fund Maiden Stakes (Class 5) (2yo) 5f

8/11 Middleham, 9/2 My Valerina, 13/2 Davaye, 10/1 Muncaster Castle, The Mighty Ogmore, 16/1 Devilfishpoker Com, 20/1 Joella´s Lad,

You would expect MIDDLEHAM to win this race but he is by no means a good thing and I would be a bit wary of him and paying particular attention to the market will make sense. Had this been fast ground my confidence in opposing MIDDLEHAM would have been a lot stronger but I fear the rain has turned things back in his favour. The favourite MIDDLEHAM is from an (as yet) unproven sire and the Dam hasn't done much with her offspring and I didn't think his debut run was up to much. Horses that have had a run in this race are not completely dominant in this race. We have had 2 unraced winners in the last 5 years and a few of these may turn out to be better than the favourite. Karl Burke isn't a man for winning juvenile maidens with debutants but I am interested in his runner here DAVAYE. She is a Filly but they have sound records in this race and Carlisle is one of the tracks that burke often uses to win with his unraced 2 year olds. Only last year he introduced Clare Hills at Carlisle who won on her debut at 25/1 before winning the Hilary Needler at Beverley (Listed race) next time out. Them overnight rain may not have been in DAVAYE's favour though which would concern me a little. The ground change would worry me for
JOELLA's LAD . Watch the market closely for DAVAYE and for money for any unraced horses as I don't think this is an unbeatable favourite much as he has a sound chance especialy now the rain has come.

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Carlisle 7:00 -Pink Ladies Selling Stakes (Class 6) (3-4yo) 5f193y

4/1 Alpaga Le Jomage, Glendening, 5/1 Dancing Deano, 7/1 Drum Dance, 12/1 Sweetly Sharp, 14/1 Sapphire Storm, Silver Nun, True Valentine, 16/1 Apetite, Boumsong, Lord Mayfair, 20/1 Miss Mujahid Times, 33/1 Crystal Bay

This is a Selling race and I dont believe horses that have ran just one race in the season are likely to be fit enough to win a Sprint selling race at this time of year. If you take every Selling race under 7 furlongs in the last 18 years , and look at horses that had just 1 race that season you have to go back to a Linda Ramsden horse at Hamilton in 1991 to find a "Once raced" winner that year. The Full record of these horses is just 1 winner (1991) from 91 that tried and that is a massive hint for me to oppose GLENDENING 5/1 , as well as 14/1 True Valentine, 16/1 Apetite, 20/1 Miss Mujahid Times and 33/1 Crystal Bay . I would like to think this is a very important stat and the record of similar types in June being almost as bad I have to be against these runners. I am certainly happy to
oppose GLENDENING. The horse clearly looks to have a bit of temperament and he does struggle to settle with an awkward head carriage and several form books advise he is best "treated with caution". SAPPHIRE STORM and SILVER NUN look horses that may struggle after the rain and they look modest anyway. The fitter horses like ALPAGA LE JOMAGE and DRUM DANCE should have far too much power in this race today and with DANCING DEANO capable I couldnt see past one of these horses. I think DRUM DANCE has a lovely each way profile at 5/1 and will appreciate the ground being by Namid.

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Carlisle 8:30 - Dobies For Vauxhall Handicap (Class 6) (4yo+,0-60) 5f

11/2 Coconut Moon, 7/1 He´s A Rocket, Quantica, 9/1 Monte Major, 10/1 Mill By The Stream, Piccleyes, 12/1 Blue Maeve, Petite Mac, Unlimited, 14/1 Compton Classic, Muktasb, Percy Douglas, Pyramid, 20/1 Grey Cossack, Harrington Bates, 25/1 Chairman Bobby, 33/1 Waggledance,

If you look at All aged Handicaps in May at 5 furlongs since 1999 (in any class of race) you will find that up to the end of last season there were 285 seasonal debutants that tried to win these handicaps. Only 2 managed to win. That is an appaling record . Bearing in mind we have soft ground and a big field I would have to oppose the seasonal debutants which means COCONUT MOON the favourite as well as Grey Cossack. The Racing Post tip this horse and state "A chance is taken on the fitness levels of the unexposed and improving COCONUT MOON, who made decent progress as a 3yo and remains on a likable mark for this return to grass". Based on the record of seasonal debutants I would have to comment that she has an extremely difficult task today and I have to make her a negative.

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