Account Bet

Lingfield 3.20 - Aqmaar

£50 Each Way

7/2 with Ladbrokes , Paddy Power, Bet365, Totesport, Hills , Totalbet , Stan J , Betfred

Going with an Each Way bet today at Lingfield on AQMAAR at 7/2 in the Novice race at 3.20. We havent much choice today on a quiet Wednesday and I am keeping it short. I
think there are strong reasons to expect Aqmaar can win this race and He should go close against opposition hard to rate but who dont look unbeatable. I am in all afternoon if anyone wants any other Racing Thoughts on the Day. Far better choice on Thursday and I should be
able to do a more detailed message.

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Today's Racing

Had a Nice winner on Monday with Woodcote Place available at 5/1 backed into 4/1. Carried on some good form and I want to keep that up this week. I can only do do that when there are oppurtunities and they are few and far between today. LEICESTER is the only complete Turf Meeting today and the meeting has no history to it so we are really struggling for choice today. What I dont intend to do is look at races I have no idea about just because there is nothing else to choose frm. Going to have a short message today and just be patient before it gets busier
tomorrow and at the end of the week. Only One Horse stood out to me as Backable.

Lingfield 3:20 Llanera Lifestyle Resorts Novice Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) 7f

2/1 Safe Investment, 7/2 Aqmaar, 9/2 Forefathers, 5/1 Bright Moon, 14/1 Barbs Pink Diamond, My Learned Friend, 16/1 Titan Triumph, 20/1 Alittlebitleft, 50/1 Amazing King, Orange Pekoe.

SELECTION - AQMAAR 7/2 Each Way

This race looks to be dominated by 3 runners. It is a "Novice" race for 2 year olds over 7 furlongs and just the kind of races John Dunlop specialises in but more about him later. There are only 4 runners under 25/1 in this race. One of these BARBS PINK DIAMOND is unraced. I am quite happy to oppose her. She is a Filly. Her stable have never won a Novice Event with an unraced horse before. They have never had a winner with one at this track or in this month or at 7f before and everything we know about Amanda Perrett's record suggests September and October is the better time to bet her Novices when they have ran before. I think the favourite SAFE INVESTMENT has no more than a decent chance. He is not unbeatable and is too short in the market for me. Having Won a maiden on his second start last time out you would have thought Gosden would have ran him in Listed or Group company if he was any good but he hasnt done that and I think that suggests he has limitations. After form figures of 2 W The handicapper has rated SAFE INVESTMENT a 90 horse. That looks far too high. He is another example of how winning a maiden early can render you badly handicapped. I think John Gosden knows this horse isnt good enough to win Listed Races as he hasnt chosen that route. I think he knows he wont win a Handicap of 90 so he is forced into Novice Evesnts. I think you can reasonably be confident that SAFE INVESTMENT's ability is in the 80-85 range. He looks a Class 4 horse and both FOREFATHERS and AQMAAR may be better than that. With FOREFATHERS Micheal Bell has always rated this unraced horse and he has been fanied to win several madens recently but withdrew because of soft ground. Today he finally makes his debut on faster ground and with his reputation he could win. It wouldnt bother me that Bell has a 4-50 record with unraced 2 year olds in Novice races as FOREFATHERS is well thought of and could win this. Its a tall order for an unraced horse to take on a horse like AQMAAR who has already won a maiden on a Grade 1 track but several unraced horses have won Novice races like that and I wouldnt be making FOREFATHERS a negative just because he was unraced. I do prefer to take the penalised AQMAAR who I see as having the advantage having ran and won. He has a Penalty but horses that ran in August Novice races with penalties had a 10-25 record and a 40% strike rate and they are statistically very strong. AQMAAR is from a decent family and won a Maiden on his debut at Newbury against some powerful stables. AQMAAR has plenty of scope. He has set a decent standard for others to aim at. The record of his trainer John Dunlop in Novice races at this time of year is excellent. His Novice runners with just one previous race show a 9-24 record (37%) and when they run at 7 furlongs he has a better record of 5 winners from 12 runners. I think AQMAAR has proven far more than the unraced Forefathers and Dunlop should know exactly where he stands with Safe Investment as that horse beat Dunlop's Eglevski at Newmarket last time out. I think AQMAAR Each way at 7/2 offers excellent chances of a winner and is a Horse that should really go close and at least be placed.
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