2 Account Bets

Beverley 3.20 - (4) CALL MY NUMBER

£20 Win 6/1

Beverley 3.20 - (3) DAME HESTER

£10 Win 7/2

CALL MY NUMBER the £20 selection is 6/1 with W Hill Paddy Power Sporting Odds and 11/2 Ladbrokes Chandler

DAME HESTER the £10 Saver is 7/2 with Stan James Bet365 and 100/30 with Chandler Totalbet Blues Sq

Today the message is short and contains 2 races as I am not happy with the overall quality of the analysis and think too many races are diluting the quality. The Account Bets have been Good and profitable lately but the overall message has been poor. Staying with a couple of races today will hopefully improve that somewhat. In the Beverley 3.20 I want to take on the favourite. I want a Saver on the second favourite DAME HESTER at around 3/1 and have the main bet on the third favourite CALL MY NUMBER at 6/1. Both these horses have Class 3 Handicap form and take on unproven maidens in this handicap and I feel both are entitled to be far shorter in the market.

Staking was a big factor today. My only other fancy on the day is GRAMADA in the 2.50 at Beverley and I rate him a very likely winner. All Morning I was contemplating having two £10 win bets on Gramada 7/4 and Dame Hester 3/1 and a £10 Double. My theory was that I would need just one winner not to lose any money and for a £30 stake getting both winners (very possible) would result in a profit of over £150 . I have changed my mind and decided to concentrate on the 3.20 race. We will know in a few hours if thats a mistake but I had a proper look at some videos in the race and a Better look at Call My Number and I am now convinced the horse will win this racing prominently as he did his maiden here last year. I have to make him the selection and I wanted both horses on my side. At 3/1 and 6/1 I feel we have some great value against a vulnerable favourite whom I respect but want to take on.

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Talking Points

* Yesterdays Summary

YOUMZAIN Won landing the Account Bet and its a Good job he did as not much else was much use in the E Mail. Very dissapointed with the 5/4 Starting Price but that was down to 3 Non runners in the race making it a virtual match with the favourite. Pleased it won but Not happy with the quality of the mails at the moment . Think I am looking at too many races and not getting the balance right. The Account for April stands at a profit of £149.50 which isnt too bad for the hardest month of the season. The bets have been W L L L W L L W . The 5 losers included 2 big priced horses and a Faller over hurdles and when you bet big prices the strike rate dips. There have been 8 Bets in 22 days. Would have liked a couple more but it hasnt been easy and at the moment were Going Ok much as I would really want the e mails to improve as they are not good enough at the moment.

£40 Youmzain WON 5/4
£10 e/w Totally Scottish Lost 10/1
£20 Stoneacre Boy +saver Lost
£30 Saddlers Cloth WON 15/8
£5 Myson 11/2 Lost
£15 Predator e/w 3/1 Lost
£15 Lucys Lady 10/1 Lost
£20 e/w Great As Gold WON 11/2

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STAKED RACES

Beverley 3:20 - Good Luck Philip And Annie Stakes (Handicap) (Class 3) (3yo,0-90) 7f100y

9/4 Sir Gerard, 3/1 Dame Hester, 11/2 Rebellion, 7/1 Call My Number, Crosby Vision, 8/1 Collateral Damage, 12/1 Memphis Man,

If you take the market leaders its clear that CALL MY NUMBER and DAME HESTER have achieved significantly more than SIR GERARD. Obvioulsy the "sexiest" horse is James Fanshawe's SIR GERARD 9/4. He has ran just twice winning a maiden as a 2 year old and runs in a handicap for the first time. What surprises me is that James Fanshaw has never had a 3 year old handicapper win on their seasonal debut before. Of course he has more than enough talent to have won many of these races but a 0-36 record suggests he doesnt target these horses first time out and prefers to give them a run. For someone like Fanshawe to have never won one with a first time out horse is remarkable. That isnt just in April, thats at any time of the year . His record in April in 3 year old handicappers is poor anyway (1-27) . James Fanshaw has ran 5 horses with identical profiles, coming into a 3 year old handicap in April after winning a 2 year old maiden and all 5 were beaten including 2 beaten favourites. I am not saying Fanshawe isnt capable. Of course he is and could win these races with his eyes shut but he also acknowledges its a long season and there is every chance SIR GERARD is short of work. Even if he isnt can he win anyway ? A Maiden winner on the sand last year. Promising yes but DAME HESTER and CALL MY NUMBER offer far better form.

DAME HESTER has just been placed in a 17 runner 0-92 Handicap on a Grade 1 track. SIR GERARD may be rated 82 today but DAME HESTER ran a superb race at Newmarket beating plenty of better horses. Its not as if that race was a Fluke. She had just won a maiden at Lingfieldon her debut for Eoghan O'Neill, having had three runs in Ireland trained by Mick Halford. This is a lightly raced and decent looking filly and I like her on breeding. The Dam has produced some good stock including Aoife who won 2 handicaps in a 6 race career and was rated in the 80's. She also foaled Funny Valentine who was placed in the Group2 Kings Stand stakes and was listed class. DAME HESTER looks a very decent handicapper and to have ran 4th last time in a 0-92 race is significantly better than SIR GERARD has achieved and thats without the negative Fanshawe record. I have to oppose his favourite and its a matter of what else can match DAME HESTER's form. DAME HESTER is a Filly but thats no problem. They have won 3 of the 9 renewals but have had far fewer runners than Colts and have the better strike rate.

CALL MY NUMBER has a superb chance and I make him the selection. He doesnt need to improve on his Kempton run in my opinion . That was a highly competetive Class 3 Handicap for horses rated 0-90. I think this horse will win a nice race this year and this doesnt look too hard and may turn out to be his easiest race of the year. Mick Channons has his form in great form. He had a 3 year old handicapperm win yesterday. He trained yesterdays account bet winner. In the last 2 days his runners have a W W 2 W W 2 record. I loved him on video at Kempton over a Mile last time. He broke well and set the pace and ra on again before just being swooped by horses racing on the faster part of the track. The drop in trip looks perfect. Many horses won this race coming back in trip from Class 3 Handicaps. CALL MY NUMBER will love conditions. He won his maiden here last June over course and distance beating a horse (Juberon) who turned out to be high class and there was a 8 length gap to the 3rd. I see him making all in this race and gaining a serious tactical advantage and running these mainly unproven horses into the ground. If anything catches him my guess will be that its DAME HESTER another horse coming from a Class 3 Handicap. There shouldnt be many more involved. I dont fancy COLLATERAL DAMAGE who was well behind DAME HESTER last time out at Newmarket. CROSBY VISION cant be ruled out if he is well handicapped but no horse has won this coming from a 2 year old maiden before and the stables record in 3 year old handicaps (2-81) , seasonal debutants (0-9) , record before August (0-54) and coming from a maiden (0-10) make it clear that this isnt familiar territory for this stable. REBELLION has a sound chance if he gets the run of the race from a stable that has won the race twice before but his form hasnt yet matched DAME HESTER's or CALL MY NUMBER's.I think 6/1 about CALL MY NUMBER is a great price and with DAME HESTER the deserved saver I want to bet them both.

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NON STAKED RACES

Beverley 2.50 - Go Racing In Yorkshire Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (4yo+,0-70) 1m1f207y

13/8 Gramada, 5/1 Westcourt Dream, 6/1 Eminence Gift, Shekan Star, 10/1 Dispol Veleta, 12/1 Awaken, 14/1 Calamari, 20/1 World At My Feet, 25/1 Be Wise Girl, 50/1 Snugfit Dubarry

GRAMADA Looks a Good thing to me. She is statistically bomb proof in this Fillies Handicap and I feel she can outclass this field. There is first of all a Huge edge to 4 year olds in this race. All 9 this race has been run it fell to a 4 year old. The record of older horses in this race stands at 0-58. I wouldnt say an older horse could not win but the edge is certainly with the 4 year olds and the lighter raced horses. If you look at runners that had more than 20 previous starts going into this race they have a weak 1-48 record and the stats are clearly saying that a lightly raced 4 year old is ideal. They also say that High Weighted horses dominate. The winners all come from the top of the handicap . If you look at horses that had less than 8st 13lbs in weight in past renewals they had a miserable 0-81 record. Its certainly a race where the classier runners at the top of the handicap seem to outclass the lighter weights who are simply not much better than selling platers. You also want a Winner. 8 of the 9 winners had won a race before. If you look at everything you need to take this race it points to GRAMADA. She is a horse thats improved for going to Paul Blockley . Her form last time out when 2nd at Bath is far better than anything else can lay claim to in this race. Her rivals at Bath saw 15 horses rated between 60 and 65 and the strength in depth in that field far outweighed what she faces today with only 1 horse rated higher than 57. Seh was 2nd at Bath ina big field. The Winner and the 3rd have come out and won. She is race fit. She handles the ground perfectly well . Her stable are having winners. She faces many inferior horses that can be questioned for lack of fitness and I think she has his race at her mercy in a race where she just stands out as the perfect type for the race.So of her rivals there doesnt look to be much. WESTCOURT DREAM 13/2 would be older and more exposed than every past winner. She is a seasonal debutant from Mick Easterby. If you look at Mick Easterbys handicappers at this time of year they dont score well on their debuts. They have a poor 3-135 record. He has had none in the last 6 years. He has had none at Beverley and none in fillies races. They do tend to need the run. His overall record at this time of year in handicappers he sends to Beverley is just 1-30 . WESTCOURT DREAM was beaten in Banded class on her seasonal debut last year and its not hard to see her lacking the fitness and class to win. DISPOL VELETA looks a horse we can beat. She is a high weighted horse which is ideal but she looks exposed and the wrong age group and horses like her than have droppedm in trip from middle distances havent done well in this race. Her tariner also says she is a "different horse on soft ground". She hasnt yet when the ground is on the quick side and I think we can beat her today. CALAMARI is a 4 year old and lightly raced but she hasnt shwon much yet. She doesnt settle that well and she has to overcome a long absence and her market price of 20/1 doesnt suggest she is wound up today from a yard that dont specialise in seasonal debutant winners. GRAMADA's chance is improved with 3 horses in this 10 runner race at 25/1 or more. SHEKAN STAR 13/2 will lack the class to win in my opinion. She is a Bottom weight last time out winner but that was only in Banded Class. She is probably a bit better than banded class but The history of this race shows similar horses have been outclassed in this race and I think she will be. Its not as if she can race off her correct mark as she is 4lbs out of the handicap. She ran in a far easier Maiden Handicap last August here over todays Course and Distance and was well beaten and this trip is probably going to be too sharp for her and its not hard to see her having traffic problems and conceeding a start to horses proven in better class. AWAKEN 14/1 comes from a weak Northern stable that havent had many winners and she has to face a 7 months absence from the track and she doesnt look good enough on any of her runs so far. EMINENCE GIFT would have a small chance at her best but she is really just a plater and there isnt any evidence from horse or trainer that "First time out" is the best time to catch her. I cant see past GRAMADA here and think she has to outclass this field .

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