Monday

The last 3 bets have won at 9/1 5/1 and 6/4 and havent been on the account. To some that wont matter. To others it will hurt. Believe me it kills me as much as anyone. Todays strongest bet is ELITE LAND in the 6.50 at Ripon. The decision whether to make him a Bet or not comes down to his form and profile and Not to the fact the last 3 winners were not on the account. Truth of the matter is I just dont believe in him as much as I should do as it is such a desperate quality race. I have had £200 myself on the horse and he could very easily become the 4th big priced winner on the trot not to be "staked". I am going to leave him off the account tonight as I dont think he is just good enough as a Bet . After all we have a woman pilot. Poor each way terms with 15 runners. A Track where they can split and a draw bias that can change. I think he has to be a "Best Bet" rather than an account bet and thats what He is. I still want him to win though and He is worth a bet as 7/1 is a big price for this runner.

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Talking Points


* Yesterdays Summary

PRIMO WAY won at 9/1 a fantastic Sp for the Best Bet of the Day and I am on Fire at the moment. Regardless of whether some of these are "On" or "off" account , I feel good at the moment at level stakes as it takes some pressure off my shoulders. I have to say, I am quite happy to openly admit to my flaws and weaknesses in messages . I Know the weakneses well. I also know my strengths. Yesterdays "Nap" was topweight in a low grade handicap. When it comes to issues of class in low grade handicaps, especially topweights and the Manoeuvering up and down in class in these races I am one of the best. Few in the game understand those issues as I do and over the years my record in bets like that is outstanding. That isnt an idle Brag. I am certainly not saying I am "Genuis" tipster as I am clearly not but we all have our strengths and weaknesses and that "area" of the game is my strongest assest and I think that part of my tipping is Group 1 and simply majesterial at times. The only annoying thing about it is that its only a small area and there arent enough of those bets and sometimes that isnt enough. When I say in messages that there is a Gap between Topweight and second topweight, Its a sensational angle at this time of year. I can assure you that the results in the last few weeks have been sensational. Its something I am programmed to notice when studying as I know its something significant. I dont tip them all. I miss many of them. I can promise you that if you go back 2 weeks and look for all handicap topweights that carry 5lbs or more weight than the second topweights you will be astonished at how many have won and the record. I havent got the time to do it myself , its not a quick task but the record is unbelievable. Jamie Osborne had one the other day that won at 10/1 and there were several more. I have tipped a few but missed many more but the record is breathtaking and thats so interesting in handicaps at the moment. Do not mean to Gloat about Saturdays 5/1 and 6/4 winners and yesterdays 9/1 winners as I have spent all last week opening wounds and admitting my many flaws but I am in red hot form at the moment , and in races like yesterdays I am one of the best judges out there in that area.

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Today's Racing


WINDSOR

I have stayed mainly with Ripopn this evening. Havent done any Text for Windsor but this is what I would do in the 3 races I looked at.

Windsor 6.35 - Sri Pekan Two each way or place only
Windsor 7.05 - Woodcote Place each way
Windsor 8.35 - John Gosden likes this race a lot and his runners are respected

RIPON


Ripon 6.50 -9/2 Anasena, 5/1 For No One, 6/1 Elite Land, 8/1 Thornton Princess, 11/1 Ebony Lady, 12/1 Augustus Livius, Ayala Cove, Prince Richard, 14/1 Carrietau, Elli Lewtia, Wensleydale Star, 16/1 Moonlight Fantasy, Sweet Lavinia, 20/1 Moraadi, 40/1 Bamalam.

Selection - ELITE LAND

Dangers - Moonlight Fantasy 16/1 - Ebony Lady 10/1 - Augustus Livious 12/1


Selling race. Has been run 3 times before and there are not many similar races elsewhere but from what races there are there is a strong suggestion that you ideally want at the very least 4 runs and probably more runs. I opposed ANASENA last time at Warwick for those reasons and she ran badly and about as well as I would have expected. She has now had 3 runs and I see her as still very much on the inexperienced side and her chance for me depends on whether there is something more experienced that looks good against her. My gut feeling is to do my very best to find that horse as I dont see ANASENA as having a strong profile in this race. Out of interest horses in July selling races like this with less than 4 runs have a 2-141 record. Mark Johnston's FOR NO ONE 5/1 would also be just short on experience and I dont like him much. He doesnt appeal at all on breeding and he has yet to prove he stays this far and being my Mozart thats no certainty. If he were trained by a small yard I think his price would be doubled. AUGUSTUS LIVIUS does have the experience but I would think he wants softer ground and the Dams 6 foals have all turned out garbage and have a combined 0-46 record on the racetrack. That said if rain comes or money comes for this horse he does have a chance and I put him on a "Possible dangers" list. ELLI LEWTIA can be opposed as Selling winners dont come from maidens. AYALA
COVE has done nothing to reccomend her and Haslam's record is not that good in these races. PRINCE RICHARD wont be fit enough. CARRIETAU looked horrible on video last time and would only be interesting if gambled and there is no sign of that so far. THORNTON PRINCESS hasnt been shaping like a winner at all lately and looks regressive. EBONY LADY has some sort of chance and not a bad profile. I think there is a chance She didnt stay 11f last time out watching her on video and looking at her pedigree. On Breeding you would have thought she was no more than a Miler but she clearly stays this trip and she travels quite well as well. His stable also won this in 2004 with a horse coming off a similar several weeks absence and they have also had another "Placed" in the race from 3 runners. I rate her a horse with a sound chance but she cant be the selection. She would be far better off in a handicap and all her form is from featherweights in claiming races and ELITE LAND has already beaten her easily this year and I think he will again. I think MOONLIGHT FANTASY has a chance at 20/1 and is on my shortlist as well but ELITE LAND Has to be the bet. ELITE LAND has just finished ahead of WENSLEYDALE STAR 2 days ago. Watching that video ELITE LAND looked simply a better horse. He beat him comfortably and was unlucky as well being hampered and running wide. It is hard to see that form being
reversed and I like ELITE LAND's chance today with that fitness enducing run he has just had. He is about the fittest horse in the race. He has all the neccesary experience. He appealed on Video. He has no concerns about trip and ground. He has what I feel is a good draw. He has a strong winning chance and shouldnt be far away at all and I see him as a solid each way bet.

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Ripin 7.20 - 4/1 Frontline In Focus, 11/2 Catlivius, 6/1 Mickleberry, 7/1 Ishi Adiva, The Italian Job, 10/1 Early Promise, Rue Soleil, 14/1 Bonny Scotland, Fine Leg, 16/1 Amaretto Venture, First Valentini, 25/1 Sister Etienne, 33/1 Nomoreblondes.

Selection - THE ITALIAN JOB with a saver on Mickleberry

I think my suggested bet in the race of THE ITALIAN JOB to beat MICKLEBERRYis most threatened by ISHI ADIVA who is my "3rd choice" in this race. InterestingFillies Maiden stakes for 2 year olds. Its a Maiden Auction race which basically means that the Cheaper a horse was bought for at the sales, the less weight she has to carry in this weight. Therefore the more "expensive" clasier types end up with topweight, and the cheaper bargain basement purchases end up with light weights. The "General" Rule in this race and similar races is that you tend to find more winners come from the horses carrying more weight as they are more expensive and tend to be a bit classier. You also tend to find that the more runs a horse has the better. These are not dynamic stats but class and experience do matter and You would far rather have an experienced horse like THE ITALIAN JOB at the top of the weights with a few runs behind her rather than an inexperienced horse that was cheaply bought at the bottom of the weights. CATLIVIUS is an unknown prospect. She is an unraced Kevin Ryan horse from an untested Dam and its impossible to know what ability she has. Unraced horses dont score that well in this race (1-40) but have at least won this race before and the stable are quality these days. I dont fancy EARLY PROMISE as I think she is bred for soft ground. The Favourite FRONTINE IN FOCUS 4/1 ran
reasonably well on her debut and I quite liked her on video. Her problem is whether with 1 race behind her she is experienced enough to defy one of the worst draws in the race and I would have to say she isnt one I would automatically give the benefit of the doubt to. MICKLEBERRY is at least more experienced, has a better draw and watching her on video likely to be be suited by the drop back to 5f today. 3 winners of this race dropped back in trip and she comes from the same Pontefract race that the 1996 winner ran in before winning this race. That makes him saver material today. ISHI ADIVA is very interesting in that she is
described as a "big scopey filly". She comes from the same Windsor race that the 1995 and 2004 winners of this race came from much as both of those had more experience than her. I liked her on video though and have to give her a chance. The fact she has ran once is the only reason she isnt in the staking plan. One horse that has experience is THE ITALIAN JOB. She could be better drawn but she has 3 runs behind her. Tim Easterby won this race in 1996 and 2005 both times with fillies that had 3 runs and She is the "perfect profile" in the race. THE ITALIAN JOB has to put an average run behind her last time. If she can do that she has the form to win. I am giving her the benefit of the doubt and think THE ITALIAN JOB may just have too much for Ishi Adiva and Mickleberry.

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Ripin 7.50 - 3/1 Princess Cocoa, 7/2 Is It Me, 9/2 Jidaar, Scotland Yard, 13/2 Hunting Haze, 9/1 Blushing Hilary, 10/1 Fenners.

Selection - IS IT ME

You dont really have a clue in this race what ability several have. The Top 3 weights are all trained by Mark Johnston. These are JIDAAR , SCOTLAND YARD and FENNERS. The weakest of these 3 for me would be SCOTLAND YARD if only for the fact that most if not all past winners of this race ran well on their previous start and he didnt. JIDAAR is hard to judge after winning a maiden. Horses that do that have no problem in this race but He still has to concede weight to several past winners and I dont feel I have enough evidence to judge him. His stable mate FENNERS also comes from a maiden and on the one hand he looks oppsable as he is very weak in the market and drifting out to 20/1 on his seasonal debut. On the other hand It wouldnt surprise me if that market move was a red herring and its interesting his Dams other two foals both turned out to be Listed Class. Whether his absence is down to a problem I dont know. I suppose you have to assume that if he is a 20/1chance and stable "3rd string" he wont win. If they do bet him later though he does have the pedigree to be respected. I dont like BLUSHING HILARY who is poorly bred, exposed and not sure to stay. I think IS IT ME has a perfectly solid profile and has nothing at all wrong with his chance and he mirrors many past winners of this race. PRINCESS COCOA's stable won this race last year and she is improving and her sex have won this race many times before. I wouldnt say she has anything in hand of these, which makes me think she isnt entitled to automatically be favourite but her form puts her bang there. With 7 runners and no each way betting suitable its a very difficult race. Overall I am going with a solid profile of IS IT ME at 4/1 but I dont feel I can rule out anywhere near enough of these to be confident in a 7 runner race.

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Ripon 8.50 - 11/4 Kaymich Perfecto, 11/2 Grande Terre, 13/2 Spanish Law, 7/1 Sedge, 10/1 Ali D, Ocean Sunrise, 11/1 Apsara, Attacca, 12/1 Kabis Amigos, 16/1 Flaxby, 20/1 Pauline´s Prince, Pianoforte.

Selection - KAYMINCH PERFECTO with a saver on GRAND TERRE

Unoriginal but I think KAYMINCH PERFECTO and GRAND TERRE stand out. Plenty of reasons to like them both. GRAND TERRE won the race last year and won it well and she isnt that far higher in the weights today. It is only these factors that even allow her to be shortlisted as I do prefer KAYMINCH PERFECTO. At least I perfer him on "paper" . My one worry with KAYMINCH PERFECTO is the track. Both his recent wins and most of his race have been when held up at the back of the field and this is not a track that helps hold up horses. He has been very impressive in winning handicaps by wide margins. Those were better races than these. I love the fact he has a Big Gap as Topweight between him and the next weighted horse. I have already mentioned earlier in the message how so many of these have won recently. A True sign of class. His weight is an advantage for me. He has a good jockey claiming. His stable have won this race in 2001 and 2004. He has a penalty but so did 5 other horses that ran in this race and 3 of these won. Like GRAND TERRE he has a good draw. I think he has a superb chance on Class and on almost any other track he would have been automatic selection. Its just this place is unforgiving to hold up horses at times and that would be my main concern. That would stop me tipping him. I could only consider GRAND TERRE as an alternative and I would personally feel strongly drawn to at least saving on him at the very least as he is clear second best for me

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Ripon 9.20 - 2/1 Tawaafud, 11/4 Tafiya, 7/2 My Arch, 11/2 Hassaad, 20/1 Final Award, Spittal Point,

Selection - TAFIYA

This is a bad maiden and you cant rule anything out especially with 3 non runners but I just think TAFIYA is the one. I really dont want MY ARCH 3/1 . I dont like the fact he has to give weight for age away. We have had a 4 year old win this race before but that was in a small field and was odds on with only 2 possible winners. I dont like MY ARCH's sire Silver Patriach. Overall his runners had just a 3.5% strike rate on the flat and you have to question whether he needs further. The Offspring of Silver Patriach have a 0-57 record when they race at 9f or under so this 8f trip may not be enough for him. He couldnt get placed in a maiden here last time against 3 year olds and I dont see why he should win this. I dont fancy him. I am also sceptical about the favourite TAWAAFUD. Her trainer Barry Hills has twice won this race before but I questioned TAWAAFUD last time as possibly not being a horse to train on. She has not been "right" all spring. I wondered if she had gone the way of her mother (Intimaa) as she didnt look to train on. I raised that question on her last start, and she came 4th at 7/2. I still think there is a serious question there. She couldnt fail but but beat the horses she finished ahead of and I would demand that she proves she has progressed this year before she carrys any of my hard earned cash. HASSAAD has claims but you do get the impresion he needs to improve to win. TAFIYA is beautifully
bred but Gerard Butlers stableform is a concern. He hasnt had a winner for a while and he has had a few beaten favourites. Thats my biggest fear for this horse, but his horses are generally getting close to winning and I think TAFIYA may go one better. I see it as an advantage that she hasnt been out for almost 4 months. Its time for Butler to do what he needs to and find a race he will be desperate to win with her for stud duties. Her pedigree demands a win. I think thats the plan and I feel she is the one to win this.

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