No Account Bet

Starting some Welsh National Analysis Today in this E Mail and that will continue all week. I am taking it quiet Today and Tomorrow. Today I have just 1 horse I am betting. Thats a small bet at about 6/1 on GLOBAL TRAFFIC in the 2.00 at Wolverhampton. Tommorow I wont be sending an E Mail unless it involves the Welsh National. I want to spend tonight and tomorrow getting the race right. Global Traffic is worth a small interest bet today. He is no certainty but there are few that will stay the trip in this race and He has a far better chance than 6/1 suggests and he may well be a bigger price than that. You dont need a lot on to buy some Mince Pies. Stronger Opinions should come between Wednesday and Saturday.

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Talking Points

* This Week

There will not be any Racing Analysis on Tomorrow's Cards. If there is an E Mail it will be the Welsh National I play in. I am going to skip tomorrow's Racing cards as there are few stats and the meetings have No History and Look Poor. Next Sunday is Christmas Eve and there is no Racing that day in England. Therfore any Bets this week will run between Wednesday and Saturday or in the Welsh National. There are a couple of meetings this week I want to target and a couple of races that have caught my eye. There will also be an "Undercurrent" in each E Mail about the Welsh National. Each day I will do a bit of work on the race and Put it in the Daily E Mail. Today I start that process looking at reasons why I Believe you have to oppose the
favourite Halcom Genelardais. Thats at the end of todays Message. By the end of the week the Welsh National should be quite clear. So there will be No E Mail on Tuesday and any bets will come after that up to and including on Saturday.

* Saturday's Summary

TRUCKERS TAVERN ran a great race on Saturday and was looking like a 11/1 winner before just losing out in the last few yards. He was down to about 1-8 favourite in running (1.12 on Betfair) as he led over the last few fences. Truth of the matter is he didnt really get the trip as well as the winner having done a lot of the hard work and he may have gone a bit too early but I was pleased with his run, pleased with the analysis and Pleased he found his old form and looked like he could have won for us. Thought Saturdays Message was a high class effort that deserved more.

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TODAYS RACING


WOLVERHAMPTON 2.00 -Go Pontin's Claiming Stakes (Class 6) (2yo) 1m141y

3/1 Stars Above, 5/1 My Mirasol, 6/1 Global Traffic, Party Palace, 12/1 Fruits D´Amour, 14/1 Fun Thai, Up The Pole, 16/1 Jewelled Dagger, Power Alert, 25/1 Desirable Dancer, Gold Response.

SELECTION - GLOBAL TRAFFIC 6/1

Juvenile Claimer over a Mile and 141 yards. In this race you have some fantatsic Breeding stats that really "ought" to narrow this field down significantly but the only real danger to breeding stats like these is the danger of a very slow pace and the race developping into a sprint finish. If a race over a Mile is run at a Crawl in the early stages it can run like a 6-7f race and that would scupped any breeding stats and make them vulnerable. I Cant predict the likelyhood of that so I will steam ahead and assume that this is a race that will be run in a True Pace. Looking at some Breeding issues I think MY MIRASOL 5/1 is vulnerable. I hate her Sires record on the All Weather. So far just 1 winner from 93 runners does not make her look like a horse suited to sand and with a sire whose juveniles have a 0-20 record at distances of 8f or more on turf or sand she has big stamina and track question marks to answer today. I have been opposing PARTY PALACE for a while now at this trip. Her Sire (Auction House) has a 0-39 record with his juveniles that race at 7f or more. She has come 3rd at this trip before but was "under pressure half a mile from home" and the sires sand record (1-35) hardly offers a reason why we should overlook the stamina doubts. UP THE POLE comes from a Sire that has a poor record with juveniles. So far just 2 won from 104 runers. All 29 that ran at 8f or more were beaten as were all 22 that ran on sand. Ian Semple's JEWELLED DAGGER cant be fancied with just one race behind him. No Horse has ever won a Wolverhampton Juvenile Claimer with 1 run before. POWER ALERT is another best . GOLD RESPONSE has had a longer absence to defy than any other horse in this race. FRUITS OF LOVE has some ability but she doesnt look ready to win yet and it is hard to see her improving enough from her run 11 days ago. You could only bet her if she was very strong in the market but I dont feel she is the one. DESIRABLE DANCER looks poor and would be significantly better off in a Handicap and she comes from a stable that has no pedigree in Claiming races. FUN THAI is hard to fancy. She was well beaten behind STARS ABOVE recently and that was a race STARS ABOVE had a dreadful profile in and today FUN THAI is considerably worse off at the weights.

This race looks between STARS ABOVE 3/1 and GLOBAL TRAFFIC 6/1. You may remember a week last Saturday at Wolverhampton at the night meeting I made STARS ABOVE my best bet that day. She came 3rd. I shortlisted the 1-2-3 and she was just beaten by 2 horses. Today she has another strong chance. The Prescott record in Claimers is excellent at this track. I was slightly dissapointed she couldnt win that race but I knew she wasnt progressive and there is a chance that she could start to go Backwards. She was beaten in that race by a David Evans horse (Pret A Porter) who had come from another stable. I think STARS ABOVE may bump into another winner from David Evan's stable that has also come from another stable. GLOBAL TRAFFIC was claimed by David Evans out of a Windosr Seller for £6000 when trained by Paul Cole. You can ignore his next run. He was having a quiet"sightener" for his new stable and finished behind horses rated 74-66-77 and beat horses rated 65-64-69 and none of these would be rated anywhere near that class. His last run was when 5th in a race MY MIRASOL was 4th at Southwell. I think GLOBAL TRAFFIC will reverse the form of that race over this longer trip and with a professioanl jockey replacing a 7lbs claimer. GLOBAL TRAFFIC is by Generous and has bucket loads more stamina than My Mirasol. I think its also no coincidence that He hasnt been Gelded a sign that his new trainer agrees with his previous one that there are no temprement issues. He does technically have a bit to do "On Paper" to beat My Mirasol, and he wont find STARS ABOVE easy to beat conceeding her weight but at 8/1 I think this is the Stand out value at 8/1 in this race. He is experienced and has some good runs behind him. He has a stamian profile that many in this race would be envious of and he will be running on when others are running out of petrol. I see STARS ABOVE as the best "saver" in this race but I think the bet has to be a win bet on GLOBAL TRAFFIC at 8/1.

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* Welsh Grand National

A Week on Monday my favourite race takes place. We are currently on BOB BOB BOBBIN to a £50 stake at 12/1. He is tight at 10/1 and I am more than happy I am on one of the few Course experts in the race. I dont intend a huge Welsh National Mail out of the blue. I may still send one but I want to do a bit of work each day leading up to the race and give you snippets in advance of the race and I want to Start today with the Favourite. This is Halcon Genelardais . I dont fancy Him . The following is an Ante Post View of Halcon Genelardais

HALCON GENELARDAIS 6/1

This is a favourite that has to be opposed. I think he is only favourite as Alan King said Months ago that he would be the "Perfect Welsh National horse" and that he has been "laid out" for the race for months. That to be honest is just Drivel to say he is the perfect horse. Here is Why. HALCON GENELARDAIS 6/1 has ran just 4 times before over fences. I have gone back to every Welsh National since Playschool won this race in 1987. Every past winner had at least 7 previous runs over fences. He has ran 3 times less than every past winner of this race and that has to be a big concern especially as he is just a 6 year old. We had to wait until last year when L'Aventure won this as a 6 year old but he carried only 10st 4lbs when winning last year. HALCON GENELARDAIS is likely to end up with at least 11st 7lbs. He has 11st 1lbs but the weights are going to rise and thats a weight that no horse has carried in this race since Bonanza Boy in 1989 and he won the race in 1998 as well. I wont be getting too hung up on the weight factor this year as the old cliched "never more than 11st" arguments have been weakened in many races in recent years as training methods and horses improve. However for a 6 year old to carry that sort of weight it would take a Monumental performance for him to win. If you Look at Every GRADED Handicap Chase thats been run in the last 15 years over a Distance of 3m 4f or more the record of 6 year olds is not great. Thats exactly what HALCON GENELARDAIS is trying to do. He is trying to win a Graded Handicap Chase over a Marathon trip. The Full record of 6 year olds in Graded Chases over Long Distances is 3 winners from 42 runnes. In itself thats not a Bad record but its worth having a look at just who the 3 winners were and what chance they had.

1993 - Earth Summit won the Scottish National as a 6 year old but he Had Only 10st in weight and had ran 10 times over fences
2001 - Ad Hoc won the Whitbred as a 6 year old but he Had only 10st 4lbs in weight and had ran 9 times over fences
2005 - L'Aventure won the Welsh National but he had just 10st 4lbs and he had already ran 19 times over fences .

HALCON GENELARDAIS 6/1 is trying to join these 3 winners yet he has to do it with Far less experience than all 3 of them, He has to do it with Far More weight than any of them , and almost certainly over a Stone more weight and its very likely that he will have to do it on softer ground than any of them have done it on before. I have to be very confident that HALCON GENELARDAIS 6/1 is Not going to be up to this. He has no Course form which is important. He comes from a Hurdle race which has not been done before and a 39 day absence isnt ideal. He has to be a Negative.

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