Friday

No Account Bet

The All weather is not offering us Much at the Moment. Newbury is discussed later in the message but the horses I seem to like there are not massive prices. I cant see a Bet I want to advise on the account today. I will push the stops out for Saturday. In terms of today I would suggest This Horse.

Wolverhampton 5.10 - Sa Nau 5/1

I love the SA NAU race at 5.10. I like to offer good reasons why a horse might win - but I also like to give reasons why they may not. In the analysis for SA NAU today I feel I have very strong reasons why he can win - Possibly stronger reasons than normal. However my reasons why he may not win are also uncomfortably strong. In the end I Suggest him as a win bet at 5/1 as there can be little doubt that he is thrown in today off his handicap mark. I just hope he is able to show it today.

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Talking Points


* Yesterday's Summary


Green Day Packer ran 4th yesterday and I was dissapointed with that.l I think he did the right thing trying to make all the running and try and exploit what weakenss there was in the horses not certain to stay. I think he went off too fast. He wouldnt have won anyway - but he did set a pace he couldnt live with all the way round and was eventually taken by the favourite. Dissapointing run really despite the reasonable price.

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Today's Racing


RACE ANALYSIS NUMBER 5

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.10 - PONTINS.COM APPRENTICE HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (4yo+,0-75) 1m5f194y

3/1 Bay Boy, 7/2 Three Thieves, 4/1 Ross Moor, 6/1 Sa Nau, 7/1 Jack Rolfe, 8/1 Theatre Groom, 16/1 Kalatime, 20/1 Colophony, 50/1 Revelino.


SELECTION - SA NAU

This is a fascinating Handicap. I dont think BAY BOY is going to stay today and he is my Main Negative. Twice recently I have opposed BAY BOY on the assumption that he didnt stay 12 furlongs. I made that assumption based on the stats for his Sire Tomba. This Sire - who was a sprinter hasnt had a winner beyond 10 furlongs yet. All 33 that tried lost. Today he steps up in trip. To be fair whilst he has lost his last 3 races over 12 furlongs - he has gone close and looked like he could possibly stay 12 furlongs but crucially he hasnt managed to win and todays step up in trip surely has to hurt him. If I have oppose him twice recently - and he has lost 3 times at 12 furlongs then I have to oppose him at this new trip of 1m5f194y . Put it this way. It takes a horse on average another 25 Seconds further to run this distance than it does Southwell's 12 furlong trip. Finding the right alternative wont be straight forward. I happy to rule out the only filly KALATIME. I would oppose Revelino and COLPOPHONY who is trying to win with a longer absence than any past horse has done in these races. I am going to take on the 8 year old THEATRE GROOM simply because in the identical races here horses aged 8 or more have a 0-43 record. This leaves 4 Likely winners - THREE THIEVES - ROSS MOOR - SA NAU - JACK ROLFE

THREE THEIVES and JACK ROLFE both come from different divisions of the same race here 18 days ago. The form of each race and the time of each race suggest there will be nothing much in it today. ROSS MOOR also has C+D Form and looks like he could be improving as well. Any of these three horses can win this race and all 3 are hard to Knock. I have to take the view that SA NAU has to be thrown in off a mark of 59.


The last time we saw SA NAU on the Flat he won a low grade handicap at Newcastle. That was in a 3 race spell last Summer where he had a W 2 W record. He won at Redcar in a victory that was described as "decisive". He then ran 2nd at Redcar again 2 weeks later. Look at that race (11th Sept). He was beaten only by a Mark Prescott runner that went and won again off a higher mark and was bound to have been well handicapped - and He was beaten only in a Course Record Time. SA NAU then went and won at Newcaste. My Point is that to win two handicaps on the Flat - and only be beaten by a Prescott good thing in a 3rd race - you are entitled to say that SA NAU may very well be a well handicapped horse off "59".

All that stands up to close scrutiny but its Before you even look at his hurdles form. He was on the upgrade on the Flat and he looks like he carried that on over Hurdles as well so if there was more improvent - which there surely must have been then SA NAU would be better handicapped on the Flat now that improvement came over hurdles. SA NAU was 3rd to Katchit on his debut over Hurdles and that horse went on and won the Triumph hurdle. He didnt shine next time at Sandown but he came back to win a Maiden Hurdle at Fakenham. Whats interesting about that race is that the runner up (Wise Owl)- the 3rd (Leo McGarry) and the 4th (Kanad) ALL Won next time out. It was probably the ground that beat him at Towcester next time out. So if you think about it we have a progressive stayer on the Flat that wins off 45 - was unlucky not to win off 51 - then wins off 55. He then goes and runs very well over hurdles including winning a race that worked out well. To come back on the Flat to Only have a rating of 59 seems to me that this horse could have anything upwards of 20lbs in hand of the handicapper on the flat. Thats why I would personally Bet him to win this race and Give him the benefit of the doubt that he is unproven on the surface.After SA NAU won at Fakenham this is what his trainer said -

"If I think he is right, he will go to Aintree where there are a couple of nice handicaps that could suit him. In six months' time I think we will have one of the best hurdlers in the country.". I think you have to take the view that SA NAU is very well handicapped and can easily win this game. There are risks though. This may be an Aintree Prep race. He may hate the surface. He comes here on the back of a bad run and we are not certain why. He meets some improving horses that have decent track form and could be well handicapped themselves - He hasnt had a run in 50 days so you can argue that he may not be at his peak fitness today. These are serious concerns and thats the Trade off you have. You are getting 5/1 about a quality horse that is chucked in and brilliantly handicapped but you have to take the risks that I have described above about fitness - the surface - the opposition and the Aintree plans.

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INDIVIDUAL RACE ISSUES


LINGFIELD 2.00 - 11/8 Zarzu, 5/1 Ever Cheerful, Hotchpotch, Nikki Bea, 6/1 Buzzin´Boyzee, 12/1 Marmooq.

* 7f claiming race
* All horses experienced and not many stats available
* There have been 46 C+D claimers here since 1994
* Exposed 4 year olds like BUZZINBOYZEE won just 1 of the 46 races (1-33)
* 4 year old Fillies like BUZZIN´BOYZEE and NIKKI BEA won just two of the 46 races
* 4 year olds coming from Southwell had a 0-25 record. MARMOOQ tries that.
* I would look to Zarzu - Ever Cheerful and Hotchpotch as more likely winners
* ZARZU on official ratings at these weights comes out at least 9lbs clear of every other runner
* Unusually he moves up to 7f a trip he hasnt ran over in years - but he has won at this trip
* Hard to argue he doesnt stay as he has won at 7f and the pace here can be slow at times
* I dont like them here at short prices but at these weights ZARZU really ought to win
* I would find it hard to reccomend anything to beat ZARZU at these weights

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LINGFIELD 2.30 - 11/8 Wandle, 7/4 Maslak, 7/2 Anne Bronte, 8/1 Sowdrey.

* There have only been 7 maidens here for 3 year olds at 12 furlongs
* I want to oppose the Filly ANNE BRONTE
* Although 20 ran at 20 lost in 3 year old maidens - when you look at All maidens here over 12f its worse
* In 3yo maidens AND All aged maidens here over 12f Fillies have a miserable 1-115 record - and that winner was experienced
* The 1-115 record Includes 24 horses under 5/1 - It includes 9 beaten favourites -and a futher 18 that were 2nd or 3rd Favourites
* That makes ANNE BRONTE a serious negative - Its just a shame she has drifted to 7/1 from a 7/2 forecast price
* Horses like WANDLE that step up in trip from 7f do not score well - but I would ignore that (3-78 record)
* This is because all 3 winners that did it were once raced - Male - Seasonal Debutants as He is and that type are fine
* WANDLE's stable (Terry Mills) have ran 5 horses in maidens over C+D and 4 of the 5 won
* No problem with any stables here - or any horse statistically apart from ANNE BRONTE a "negative"
* Ed Dunlop's record is fine and MASLAK has to be respected
* Possibly comes down to whether WANDLE can improve past MASLAK
* With both stable records good and both horses offering little evidence of true ability its a race I can not call

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LINGFIELD 3.05 - Evs Musical Locket, 2/1 Ambrosiano, 4/1 Bathwick Fancy, 16/1 Sandalphon.

* 52 of these 8f maidens
* Only 4 runners and you can probably ignore bumper runner Sandalphon
* Trends very thin on the ground
* From the 52 races Fillies that come from 6f races won just one of the 52 races
* Equally Fillies that had an absence from the track just won One of the 52 races
* BATHWICK FANCY has to overcome both these things today
* Have to respect MUSICAL LOCKET but I certainly wouldnt rule out AMBROSIANO
* I am not keen on betting Richard Hannon horses like MUSICAL LOCKET unless I have to
* Hannons record in the sand season in maiden races with horses that had under 3 starts is just 1 winner from 35 runners
* That would worry me - but AMBROSIANO's trainer Clive Cox has his own issues
* Clive Cox's record win Maiden races with his 3 year olds that had a 31 + day break is 0-31
* AMBROSIANO has to defy a 172 day break today- and Cox's record raises question marks about that
* The Poor stable records of these runners makes me very reluctant to make Bathwick Fancy a negative in such a small field
* Feels like we are going round in circles and without nailing any clear selection I must move on

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LINGFIELD 3.40 - 11/4 Tetouan, 11/2 Convivial Spirit, Prince Of Charm, 6/1 Follow The Flag, 8/1 Rubilini, 10/1 Nans Joy, Road To Recovery, 12/1 Lawyer To World, 16/1 Inquisitress, 25/1 Lordswood, 33/1 Dolly Coughdrop, Mayireneyrbel.

* 68 Three year old handicaps here over 7f
* Fillies like RUBILINI and NANS JOY with 3 previous races underperform (1-35)
* Fillies with an absence of 31 + days have a weak 1-56 record.
* NANS JOY - DOLLY COUGHDROP - MAYIRENEYRBEL - INQUISITRESS are fillies that have that absence
* No filly like INQUISITRESS has come from a 5f race
* Fillies that were not 1-2-3-4-5-6 last time out have a 1-74 record
* RUBILINI - MAYIRENEYRBEL - INQUISITRESS fail this statistic
* Fillies like MAYIRENEYRBEL and RUBILINI that come from maidens won just 1 of the 68 races
* CONVIVIAL SPIRIT -INQUISITRESS - ROAD TO RECOVERY come from a 5f race and only 3 of the 68 winners did that
* No horse as inexperienced as ROAD TO RECOVERY came from a 5f race to win
* The 5 runners I cant fault are these -
* TETOUAN - PRINCE OF CHARM - FOLLOW THE FLAG - LAWYER TO THE WORLD - LORDSWOOD
* Lawyer to The World and Lordswood dont seem too fancied
* Much depends on how PRINCE OF CHARM has wintered - and whether TETOUAN regresses or improves for his latest run
* FOLLOW THE FLAG also offers plenty at 7/1 in the race. Just wish I could knock out another negative but I cant

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Newbury



NEWBURY 2.10 - DONNINGTON GROVE GOLF AND FISHING RESORT NOVICES' HURDLE (CLASS 4) (4yo+) 3m110y

10/11 Mark The Book, 9/2 Master Eddy, 6/1 Double Dizzy, 8/1 Brilliant Cut, 12/1 Ouragan De Prairie, 16/1 Bennett, Earnest, Triple Seven, 300/1 Tequinha.


MARK THE BOOK is 4/5 favourite. There are 2 obvious each way bets around 5/1 in DOUBLE DIZZY and MASTER EDDY and you have 6 horses that dont look up to it. Statisticlally the weakest records come with horses that raced just once like Ouragan De Prairie and horses with 1 race this year like Brilliant Cut. I can see little prospect of an outsider winning. The Racing Post suggest that MARK THE BOOK is vulnerable now he is away from soft ground. Thats possibly true but he can not seriously be considered at 4/5 in a long distance hurdle anyway . Its a question for me anyway of what prospects you have from the main dangers DOUBLE DIZZY or MASTER EDDY in providing an each way alternative. I think thats where my pick would have to come from. Its a tight call Comparing the Handicap form of DOUBLE DIZZY with the Novice form of MASTER EDDY. Perhaps looking at both horses the Fitter profile comes from the 7 year old MASTER EDDY. He has had a more recent run and has ran 4 times since the new year. DOUBLE DIZZY has ran just once since November . My pick therefore has to be MASTER EDDY each way at around 5/1 but the race depends on how Mark The Book gets on with the drying ground. Something not easy to predict. I think MASTER EDDY is solid E/W

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NEWBURY 2.40 - 3/1 Carlitos, 9/2 Boomshakalaka, 5/1 Gauvain, 6/1 Hills Of Aran, 9/1 Pantalaimon, 11/1 Quarry Town, 12/1 Heez A Steel, Wantage Road, 14/1 Go On Line, 20/1 Hugo Wolf, Proud To Present, 25/1 Major Matt, 33/1 Fountain Fortune, 40/1 Head To Kerry, 50/1 Calusa Caldera, Chimichurri, 100/1 Lord Of The Bridge, Rucolino.

12 of the 18 runners are Rank Outsiders and Impossible to fancy. Being a Maiden Hurdle I have to strongly oppose Bumper horses for well doccumented reasons so WANTAGE ROAD can be rejected with Confidence as well. There clearly look to be 5 serious runners in this 2m 5f Maiden Hurdle. In these races there is a huge Bias towards horses that ran at 19f or more last time - and Horses that ran at 16f and 17f last time out have it all to do. In the 12 yearhistory of this race horses that came from 2 Mile trips have a Poor 1-51 record and havent won here since 1996. There have been 78 maiden hurdle races at this trip since 1994. I have to Oppose the twice raced GAUVAIN. He has ran just Twice before. He comes from a 2 Mile race. He just doesnt look strong enough to compare with some of these. I feel the same about BOOMSHAKALAKA who also has just maiden hurdle form - just 3 runs and has to cope up with a significant rise in distance today something proven not to be easy. PANTALAIMON has a chance at 12/1 but has not achieved as much as the two main runners. This should be between CARLITOS and HILLS OF ARAN. Down in Class and on better ground and with Mc Coy booked there is no reason at all why CARLITOS can not win this race. His main danger HILLS OF ARAN is also very interesting beaten just 15 lengths in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham last week. I think both horses stand out completely on their last runs and I think one will win. Typically their superiority has been reflected in the Market. CARLITOS is 15/8 - HILLS OF ARAN is 7/2 and both prices are significantly lower than the prices they were forecast to be. I am not sure what value either offer but they stand out head and shoulders above the other runners to me. Which of the two win really depends on how Fit and prepared CARLITOS is and how HILLS OF ARAN comes out of Cheltenham. Any 7/2 about HILLS OF ARAN may prove to be the value of the two bets and possibly each way is the way to go here.

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NEWBURY 3.50 - 3/1 Tisseman, 11/2 Go Solo, 6/1 Pyleigh Lady, 8/1 Templer, 10/1 Patavium, 12/1 Brave Jo, 14/1 Easy Laughter, Gold Again, Indigo Sky, Right Miracle, Whistling Fred, 16/1 Madiba, Silver Serg, 20/1 Pigeon Island, 33/1 Regal Term, 40/1 Something Gold.

This is a 19f Novice Handicap Hurdle for Conditional/Amateur riders run at Newbury. This race has been run 10 times before. We did have a winner in 2005 (Tomina) that had 3 runs and that came from a 2 Mile race but that really has not been the Norm. 9 of the 10 winners had at least 5 previous races and 8 of the 10 winners ran over at least 19f last time out. There has been a Big Gamble on PYLEIGH LADY form 6/1 to 7/2. She is the Only horse in this race that sails through all my statistics in the race. I am not sure I would want to bet her at 7/2 - especially as all 12 Mares that ran in this race lost but she does have by far the best profile. It hasnt been a lightweights race. All 47 horses that carried 10st 8lbs or less were beaten. This is against several including Brave Jo and Indigo Star and Whistling Fred who shouldnt be fit enough anyway. I have to Oppose the 4 year olds PATAVIUM and PIGEON ISLAND. No 4 year old has won this race before. There have been 66 similar races run at other tracks and the record of 4 year olds is just 1 winner from 57 runners. I want to oppose the horses that have a combined problem of a) fewer than 5 races and b) moving from a 16f or 17f race. I dont like them when they are inexperienced and up in trip. From the 66 similar races to this only 3 of these were won by very lightly raced horses stepping up in trip. TISSEMAN has to overcome this today and no winner came from a maiden hurdle as he is doing. GO SOLO also has to step up in trip when inexperienced as does EASY LAUGHTER. This just leaves the two Phillip Hobbs horses PYLEIGH LADY and TEMPLER 14/1 and as TEMPLER has to step up in trip and lacks a run PYLEIGH LADY stands out as the strongest runner statistically.

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