No Account Bet

Todays Best Bet is DESTOUR in the 3.15 at Redcar

He is worth a Good bet at 5/2
I would say he is fantastic each way bet at 5/2
I should possibly have gone down the each way route with last nights bet
Lack of opposition all points to DESTOUR winning

I thought Esprit De Corps (2.15) Tina's Ridge (7.35) and
Tarkamara (7.50) were other horses worth mentioning.

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Today's Racing


JIM THE GENT ran well in second last night. It was a loser unfortunately but a pretty predictable race. We knew he would be out there in front trying to use his experience. We knew he would go very close as he did and it was just a matter of whether any of the Irish horses proved to be much better and we just met one that came and beat us over the last fence. I think he ran exactly how I thought he would other than holding on to win. Every chance over the last and just touched off. At 5/2 I felt he was worth the risk. You cant really know the oppositions ability but the majority of times these races are won by the established formk picks like JIM THE GENT and perhaps a little unlucky we lost out this time.


Feel unusually confident at the moment. I know the last two weeks has seen a lack of bets. I dont really
blame then wet weather for that. I know why I have been stale and not finding much. Its Mid season and
I just needed a break of a couple of days. Its a hell of a long season and the relentless study does make you
stale if you dont look after yourself and half some time off.

In 2006 I had an operation in July and that gave me a weeks break. In July 2005 I had the house rewired which also gave me a weeks break. I had not had one this season and it just got a bit tiring last week and when the weather forces you to dance around like a fool it is hard to find strong conclusions.

I am away in Brighton in the first week of the September and there wont be a service that week. At least no e mails but I will be checking in and out and posting some thoughts on the board. That weeks badly needed.

Today it's PERTH - KEMPTON - GOODWOOD - LEICESTER - REDCAR

Certainly far too Much. Had to make an unexpected trip yesterday which just cost a bit of time so todays message
isnt in Time order- its just a slightly different format so you may have to dip in and out and get what you want
from the message.


KEMPTON


Until the track has a few seasons history behind it - Kempton has to be one of the Vilest tracks to contemplate
betting on and its pretty much useless - at the moment - from a statistical point of view. Had to mention a couple
of things though and it you want to play there you can.

Kempton 6.50 - 4/1 Mabaahej, 5/1 Good Effect, Puissant Princess, 6/1 Astroangel, 8/1 Kunte Kinteh, 10/1 Soldier Field, 12/1 Sea Willow, Six Of Hearts, 16/1 Inquisitress, 20/1 Centenary, 33/1 Christalini, Millenium Sun, Not Too Taxing, Shouldntbethere.

I would have to oppose the favourite MABAAHEJ 4/1 and SEA WILLOW also has the same profile and is opposed as well. This is a 0-65 Three year old handicap over a Mile. Its a Low class race but I dont like this pair. There has been 175 of these handicaps run in July and August. Only 5 of these 175 winners had ran 3 times before. I am against MABAAHEJ and SEA WILLOW as they look too inexperienced with just 3 runs. Only 1 of the 175 winners managed to win with 3 runs and an absence of over 7 weeks and I really dont like MABAAHEJ's 65 day break as well. On top of her problem with inexperience is the fact she is a Filly and has to step up in trip. I would have to make both horses negatives.

* There has been 653 of these 8f handicaps for 3 year olds in this class all year round
* Horses with 3 runs that came from a maiden and had a 7 week break won only 1 of the 653 races

Alternatives are not easy to Nail down. If there was money for GOOD EFFECT then I would go with him. His trainer has said he is "very well handicapped" but he has also said he may be a 10 furlong horse. You can see that he may need one more run and then he becomes a horse you would want to bet next time at 10 furlongs - or a horse thats ready today at 8f and likely to win this. Difficult to know which of these he is. If he is strong in the market I would condiser him strongly. If he was not you may be best advised to wait for him next time.

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Kempton 7.50 - 2/1 Tarkamara, 5/2 Oystermouth, 7/1 Gimme Some Lovin, 10/1 Even Bolder, Tumbelini, 12/1 Up The Chimney, 20/1 Confucius Classic, Ivanasbo, Regal Cheer, Vintage, 33/1 Danetime Rose, 100/1 Half A Tsar.

This is a 6f Maiden race for all aged horses. There has been 56 of these races run at this time of year before. There has been 322 of these races all year round. Of the Market leaders I would Much rather bet TARKAMARA than OYSTERMOUTH. I intend to oppose Roger Charlton's OYSTERMOUTH because she is a "once raced filly" that steps up from 5 furlongs. Thats not an easy task and she takes on an experienced filly in TARKAMARA who is rated 79 and has been conditioned to race this far. I strongly fancy her to win. The issue with OYSTERMOUTH is simple statistically. I will explain it as best I can -

* In 56 identical all aged maidens in July and August only 7 of the 56 winners had just 1 race
* The record of fillies with 1 run in these 56 maiden races was just 1 winner in 42 that tried
* Fillies with under 2 runs in these races had a 1-76 record
* No Filly came from 5f to win one of these races
* I looked at 322 maiden races over 6 furlongs
* Only 2 of the 322 races went to fillies with 1 run that came from 5f races and one was odds on

OYSTERMOUTH is well bred and powerfully trained and may well defy the stats but you have to assume that she has had training problems now we are in August of her second season and she has raced just once. I much prefer the Paul Cole trained TARKAMARA who has far more experience and has an interesting profile.

* TARKAMARA is rated 79 - Thats a good rating for a horse in a Maiden
* She was a decent second on her juvenile debut but she fractured a Bone after that
* It wasnt diagnosed until after she ran in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot 2006
* She was then given the rest of the season off to recover
* Her first run as a Three year old was in a competetive 0-83 handicap at Goodwood
* She dissapointed but Paul Cole subsequently said "she didnt stay a Mile" that day
* Her last run was fine when second in a maiden
* Hard to know the strength of he form but she had an 80 rated horse just behind and ran well
* I prefer TARKAMARA to GIMME SOME LOVIN
* GIMME SOME LOVING has ran twice and was 6th in a maiden last time
* Seems interesting to me she was just ahead of a 42 rated horse and behind a 50 rated horse
* She was 4 lengths behind MAKE MY DREAM who gave her 7lbs - and who has a 0-22 career record rated 50
* If GIMME SOME LOVING couldnt beat her - how can she beat a 79 rated TARKAMARA
* EVEN BOLDER is rated only 63 and has to give 9lbs to TARKAMARA whose rated 16lbs her superior
* Unless there is a problem I am unaware about - or luck in running or a track bias hurts her -
* TUMBELINI may well be the one to capitalise but I do have a few niggles
* When his trainer Chris Wall runs a horse with under 3 career starts he rarely wins
* Wall has a 1-85 record with all his maiden runners that had under 3 runs
* This raises the possibility that TUMBELININwont be seen at her best until handicapped
* She has also had a small setback in her training according to the trainer
* Then I can see TARKAMARA winning this
* I would be very respectful of UP THE CHIMNEY 16/1 from Alan Jarvis's stable
* The market doesnt look promising for him but in such a race he has to be considered
* On trainer stats I would make im a "Positive" as well

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GOODWOOD

GOODWOOD 2.50 - INVESCO PERPETUAL GOODWOOD STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-95) 2m5f

5/1 Full House, Som Tala, 6/1 Esprit De Corps, 8/1 Whispering Death, 10/1 Noble Minstrel, 12/1 Afrad, Nero West, Secret Ploy, 14/1 Doctor Scott, 16/1 Commemoration Day, Great As Gold, 20/1 Kayf Aramis, 33/1 Bauhaus, Noddies Way, Screenplay, 50/1 Pocket Too,

SELECTION - ESPRIT DE CORPS 6/1

* This is a 2m 5f handicap with 16 renewals
* There are 39 handicaps in July/August at 19f or more in Class 2 or Class 3
* I want to oppose favourite FULL HOUSE and GREAT AS GOLD as they are aged 8
* Horses aged 8 or more have a 0-73 record in these 39 similar handicaps
* FULL HOUSE may be too old and he has only ran twice this season
* Every past winner ran at least 3 times
* AFRAD also fails that statistic as does ESPRIT DE CORPS
* This race has been dominated by Horses that are racing in their 3rd or 4th seasons.
* It has been dominated by horses aged 4 and 5
* Horses aged 6 have a 2-83 record in this race
* You want either a horse aged 4 or 5 - or an older horse thats missed seasons and lightly raced
* The last winner aged 6 was Cloud Inspector in 1997
* He was only having his 4th season after missing 2 years
* I am rejecting horses not in their 3rd or 4th season in training as too exposed
* NERO WEST - COMMEMORATION DAY - AFRAD - SCREENPLAY are therfore opposed
* I want to oppose all the runners that had ran in Listed or Group Class before
* All 40 of these lost and none won in the 16 year history of this race.
* It has always been a race for the "up and coming" types rather than the failed pattern runners.
* In the 39 other races horses that had run in Pattern class had a weak 1-64 record
* DOCTOR SCOTT Fails that trend
* Statistically horses in these races ridden by apprentices are bad bets
* Apprentice riders are 0-33 in this race and just 1-98 in the other similar races
* That may be a trend that fails today but I am staying with it on a difficult track
* This puts me off WHISTLING DEATH a little
* He is also not certain to stay well enough to win - strange as that looks on his form
* His sire hasnt yet bred a winner within 3 furlongs of this trip
* I like SOM TALA but has has ran just twice this year and has a 43 day absence
* I have nothing strong against the following horses -
* NOBLE MINSTREL - SECRET PLOY - KAYF ARAMIS
* Not convinced that NOBLE MINSTREL has the right preparation
* Not convinced KAYF ARAMIS has the class
* SECRET PLOY lacks experience on the flat and is reportedly "badly handicapped"
* Not sure I would agree with that but I have to side with ESPRIT DE CORPS
* The only trend he fails is that he has had just 1 run this season
* I dont intend to let that put me off - Feel he has been trained for this race
* Ex Mark Prescott and bought for £80,000 at the sales by Harry Findlay
* Ground and Trip look fine - and kept his hand in winning a maiden hurdle this year
* He is with a Top class stable and Jamie Spencer has been booked
* Whilst I would prefer him to have had more runs this year he looks a handicap blot
* Related to a top class family including Foreign Affairs
* This horse has to be thrown in from a mark of 73
* He has been a bit wayward oce or twice but that could be immaturity
* You can take the view hes too "wayward" and lacks experience this year and will fail
* Or you can atrgue his top class connections have laid him out from a generous handicap mark
* I would take the latter view and trust Jamie Spencer to win on him off a mark of 73
* ESPRIT DE CORPS is the selection

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GOODWOOD 4.05 - BGC STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-105) 1m4f

5/1 Mariotto, Samira Gold, 8/1 Malt Or Mash, Man Of Vision, Raffaas, 10/1 Cold Quest, Secret Tune, 12/1 Regal Flush, Spanish Hidalgo, 14/1 Camps Bay, Eradicate, 25/1 Philatelist, 33/1 Celestial Halo, Duke Of Tuscany, Rosbay, 40/1 Aureate.

* This is a 12f handicap for 3 year olds
* There has been 19 renewals of this race
* There has been 44 similar races at other tracks
* This race has been dominated by horses with 5-12 career starts
* You need a lightly raced horse thats not too experienced but that has had enough to cope
* Last years Favourite had just 3 runs and was Tipped by Pricewise (Ask)
* We opposed him with confidence as he had 3 runs and came from a maiden
* The slight complication this year - is thaat horses with 3 runs also had handicap form
* That makes opposing them slightly harder but I still intend to
* Horses that had 3 runs have a 1-49 record in this race - Thats Poor
* I have to be against SAMIRA GOLD
* She has had 3 runs which we know isnt a great sign
* She is also the ONLY Filly in this race and fillies won just 2 of the 19 renewals
* She comes from Listed class - and None of the 44 similar handicap winners did that
* As the only filly and having 3 runs I have to oppose her
* I am also against MARIOTTO as he has had 3 runs
* He has also had just 1 race this year. No past winner had just 1 run this year
* COOL QUEST also has had just 3 runs and 1 race this year
* I am against SECRET TUNE with 4 runs and a 40 day break
* He also comes from Pattern class - no past winners did that
* ERADICATE also fails that trend
* PHILATELIST comes from a poor trial race never produce the winner of this
* REGAL FLUSH has a worrying 60 day break
* No past winner had that
* My shortlist would be these 4

SPANISH HIDALGO
MALT OR MASH
RAFFAAS
MAN OF VISION

* RAFFAAS clearly looks improving and laid out for the race. The question is whether he has the class as Bottomweight
* We havent had a Bottomweight win yet
* SPANISH HIDALGO has a decent profile
* MALT OR MASH is improving and has to be shortlisted
* MAN OF VISION interests me greatly as he comes from a Key Newmarket handicap
* That Newmarket handicap provided the winner of this race in 1986 , 1995 , 1996 , 1997 , 2000 and 2005
* It is the best Trial Race for this race producing 5 of the last 12 winners and several placed runners
* I fancy one of these 4 to win
* My selection would be MAN OF VISION just because of the trial race

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REDCAR

There isnt much at Redcar

Not interested in the big field handicaps and claimers that end the card

These races just invite you to bet losers

Redcar has 2 divisions of a 6f Maiden race at 1.35 and 2.05.

Redcar 1.35 - 5/2 Legendary Guest, 3/1 Howdigo, 6/1 Paddy Jack, 7/1 Errigal Lad, 10/1 Arkando, 12/1 Resounding Glory, 14/1 Destinys Dream, Resolute Defender, 20/1 Joinedupwriting, 25/1 Dolly No Hair, 33/1 Everything, 66/1 Fleetway, Missabeat.

Redcar 2.05 - 3/1 Carnival Queen, 100/30 Montiboli, 4/1 Desert Lark, 7/1 Natural Rhythm, 8/1 Blue Cross Boy, Carnival Dream, 10/1 Hurricane Harriet, 33/1 Fu Wa, Night Mystery, 50/1 Sultan Of The Sand, 100/1 Carlton Mac, Jimmy Dean.

* I Felt it may be best to avoid the Unraced horses in these two divisions
* Since 1993 Redcar has only had 18 juvenile maidens at 6 furlongs
* Thats not enough to be confident with
* However Unraced horses have a pretty miserable 1-101 record in these 18 races
* If playing in the 1.35 I would be against the unraced horses
* These include ERRIGAL LAD - ARKANDO - RESOUNDING GLORY - DOLLY NO HAIR
* I would much rather bet a horse with experience
* In the 2.05 race the unraced horses are DESERT LARK and HURRICANE HARRIET

* I feel CARNIVAL QUEEN (James Fanshawe) is the most likely winner of the 2.05

Redcar 3.15 - 9/4 Destour, 5/1 Zamalik, 7/1 Queen Noverre, 8/1 Ghafeer, 9/1 Diksie Dancer, 10/1 Jawaab, 12/1 Judge Neptune, Sparky Vixen, 14/1 Samdaniya, 16/1 Golden Topaz, 20/1 Tamarack, 25/1 Contemplation, 50/1 The Keep, 100/1 Maysridge Ofkuwait.

In the 3.15 at Redcar I would give one more chance to DESTOUR 3/1. Jeremy Noseda tries to win this maiden. In his 3 runs to date DESTOUR has been 4th 5th and 4th. This is an easier race than he has been running on. He should want the step up in trip. He is clearly tricky - but he hasnt been gelded yet - he has a Visor on and he did have Group 1 entries at the start of the season. His market rival is no more than a Class 5 handicapper and has to give away weight for age. It would be bitterly dissapointing if DESTOUR wasnt better than that. If he isnt - then why hasnt Noseda sold him by now ? One or two other dangers but they dont appeal much and I think its "d day" for DESTOUR and I think he may finally win.

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LEICESTER


My best bet at Leicester is TINA'S RIDGE in the 7.35 at 6/1

4/1 Pivotalia, 5/1 Tina´s Ridge, 11/2 Bidable, 7/1 New Light, 15/2 Path To Glory, 10/1 Lordship, Officer Material, 14/1 Hot Property, Our Ruby, 16/1 Greyt Big Stuff, 20/1 Cap St Jean, Heaven´s Gates.

He won a 3 year old seller last week. He has a bit to do on form. I suspect you would rank him 3rd or 4th in terms of ability on that run - but that doesnt take into account any improvement - and connections bought him back after he won that seller and I suspect there is more improvement to come. He is still lightly raced. Statistics show that horses with penalties are very likely to defy them and win again. If you look at all 8f handicaps for 3 year olds in July and August since 1999 there has been 28 horses that carried penalties for winning . 14 of the 28 won again. Those like TINAS RIDGE that came from 3 year old sellers had a 2-2 record. He is fit -in form - possibly open to improvement and thats a lot more than can be said for several of his rivals. He is one of these that Is highly likely to run his race and go close. He may find one or two that might have a bit more class but I dont think many will be able to beat him and I see him going very close. I think he is a decent e/w bet.
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