Friday Evening Messsag

No Account Bet This Evening

Tonight I think you should have 1 bet. This is an each way bet in the 6.30 race at Chepstow tonight. The horse is STAR OF ROSANNA 4/1 each way. She looks a clever each way bet to nothing. Thats not why I suggest the bet. I make her the "Clear pick" anyway statistically and I think she may well beat the long odds on favourite. I would have her considerably shorter - even as low as Evens.

My heads been spinning in the last 24-48 hrs. Connection problems. Darting in and out to do messages. Compiling messages and stats days in advance. Meetings abandoned. Heavy Rain everywhere. Message Times all over the place. Ascot looming. I just need to Chill out. Have a Minute. Relax and carry on sending out some quality stuff especially the negatives which have been awesome this year on the whole.

I cant make STAR OF ROSANNA a full bet. Most of the Membership dont know what time the message is coming. There could easily be a non runner spoiling the bet and ruining the each way terms as just 5 runners go to post at this stage - (if there is a non runner bet her to win - she can - and I think she will win ). Then there is the strong possibility that nobody will want to lay you an each way bet and it wont be easy to get on. From my point of view I am not bothered with the aggravation of getting on. I have backed her win only but I would have gone each way had she been an account bet.

I need to say a few things at the Top of the Message

* All Connection problems are Over and we are back up and running
* Saturdays message will be at 12.30 pm
* York is abandoned by hopefully something will blossom into a bet
* My personal E Mail replies are getting behind schedule again
* My performance in replying to e mails has been shameful and I apologise
* I will get them done as soon as possible but I have to get Saturdays message out first
* Royal Ascot next week. Never felt better prepared.
* There wont be a Sunday Message but there will be one on Monday


Tonights only highlighted selection is STAR OF ROSANNA in the 6.30pm race

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TONIGHT'S RACING

CHEPSTOW EVENING RACING

I have to keep this short tonight with Saturdays message looming

I have one strong fancy in the opening race

I can do a Full preview for this race

I do have other opinions on the card

Time doesnt allow me today to write long previews after connection problems

I will do a quick summary of some other races tonight without long detail

Anyone wanting more detailed stats and clarification on any horse tonight just post on the board

Able and happy to give more detailed analysis and reasons why I say what I say in tonights mail

More than happy to show statistical reasons why I am opposing the said horses

Had it not been for Saturday tomorrow I would have expanded tonights e mail better

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CHEPSTOW 6.30 - WATERAID IN WALES /E.B.F. NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 4) (2yo) 6f16y

4/9 Gaspar Van Wittel, 3/1 Star Of Rosanna, 50/1 Nestor Protector, 50/1 Insomnitas, Whatalotofbuts.

SELECTION - STAR OF ROSANNA EACH WAY 7/2 or better

* This is a fascinating Novice race
* 5 runners and 3 of these are 50/1 and over
* It is a match between GASPAR VAN WITTEL and STAR OF ROSANNA
* STAR OF ROSANNA is the clear statistical pick and looks each way value at 9/2
* To lose any money she would have to be beaten by one of the 50/1 chances
* Chepstow have had 12 renewals of this race
* GASPAR VAN WITTEL is a Male horse. He has 1 run and 1 win and has a Penalty
* STAR OF ROSANNA is a Female horse. She has 1 run and 1 win and has No Penalty
* This is because STAR OF ROSANNA only won a claiming race and you dont get penalties for that
* Wouldnt worry me too much. Only 1 horse came from a claimer in this race . He Won so it cant be too bad
* In the 12 renewals there is no doubt Fillies are favoured
* The score is Males 6 and Females 6 but the females had just 23 runners and the males had 50
* Fillies won this in 1999
* Fillies won this in 2000.
* There were no Fillies in 2001
* The only filly in the 2002 renewal came second and she was beaten by the Dewhurst winner Tout Seul
* Fillies won this in 2003
* In 2004 the Only filly was a 50/1 chance
* Fillies won in 2005
* There was only 1 filly in 2006 and she was second to a fitter horse
* There is definately a Fillies Bias here
* GASPAR VAN WHITTEL has to concede 12lbs in weight. That is made up of a 7lbs penalty and the 5lbs sex allowance
* Of Course GASPAR VAN WHITTEL has achieved far more "On paper" and thats why he is a 3/10 favourite
* Thats a ridiculous price. He may well win but getting 9/2 about STAR OF ROSANNA is far better value
* There has been 128 very similar Novice races run in June before
* I looked for horses like GASPAR VAN WHITTEL who had 1 run - 1 win - and a 7lbs penalty
* The record in 128 races of horses that had that profile was 0 from 4
* I did the same test for horses like STAR OF ROSANNA who have 1 run - 1 win and have under 8st 11lbs
* The record was excellent. 24 Horses that had that profile resulted in 10 winners
* GASPAR VAN WHITTEL may well win but there is no way STAR OF ROSANNA should be 9/2
* With 2 places available and a juicy 9/2 with 3 runners over 50/1 I have to reccomend a decent each way bet
* I would be betting 8/11 and Evens in this race.
* If the rain gets in the ground STAR OF ROSANNA has the soft ground win already.
* Clearly the better horse is almost certainly GASPAR VAN WHITTEL
* It is far from certain he can give the sex allowance and the penalty totalling 12lbs to my filly

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O T H E R C H E P S T O W T H O U G H T S


CHEPSTOW 7.00 - 4/1 Mick Is Back, 5/1 Colonel Cotton, 7/1 Nautical, Savile´s Delight, 8/1 Full Spate, 10/1 Mannello, 12/1 Goodwood Spirit, 14/1 Dexileos, 16/1 Lizarazu, What-A-Dancer, 20/1 Emperor Cat, She Whispers, 25/1 Bogaz, Filey Buoy, Shrine Mountain, 33/1 Mine The Balance, Zantero.

* My selection is NAUTICAL
* This is because I can offer a statistical reason why every one of his opponents is weak
* He is the "least worst profile" in the race making him the selection
* NAUTICAL would be just a standard average selection in a standard average preview

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CHEPSTOW 8.10 - Didnt like the race and only came up with 2 negatives
CHEPSTOW 8.10 - These were Oldrick (inexperienced) and Dove Cottage (fitness doubts)
CHEPSTOW 8.10 - That wont help much but I am against this pair

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CHEPSTOW 8.45 - 11/4 Expensive Art, 5/1 Kelamon, 7/1 Toms Laughter, 8/1 Ceredig, Turkish Sultan, 10/1 Kind Of Fizzy, 12/1 Willofcourse, 14/1 Bertie Swift, Fervent, 20/1 Knead The Dough, Sydneyroughdiamond, 25/1 Kyllachy Storm, 33/1 Beat The Bully, Fancy You, Georges Pride.

* I would be strongly against EXPENSIVE ART
* I Can make a very strong case against her as a lightly raced 3 year old filly
* She is a Negative
* My big fear was that I had so many negatives - were there enough on my side to give me a chance
* Any of my negatives could win by default as the opposition looks weak
* I am also against KELAMON - KIND OF FIZZY statistically
* CEREDIG is statistically perfect . TOMS LAUGHTER is in the very same boat
* This pair have the best profiles for me

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