No Account Bet

Back now after a 2 day break and Todays message is likely to dust the cobwebs off.I had planned an account bet but I think the price has gone now. So I am going to downgrade the planned bet on Shanahan to a "Best Bet"


Todays Best Bet

My Best bet is SHANAHAN in the 7.05 at Newton Abbot. I intended to make him an account bet but his price has collapsed. He is into 6/4 now from 11/4 after a Non runner and thats now too short.

Should be Pretty Busy over the next 9 days. I like a lot from my E Mail today. I think at Hamilton my best bet is JOYEAUX each way. She just has one flaw that stops her being an account bet but She is certainly my best bet on the card. The one horse I have backed at Carlisle on a day of trappy Northern handicaps is KINGS COLLEGE BOY at 20/1 in the 3.25 race. Understand he is a perennial let down and tries everyones patience but at 20/1 I have to bet him today and think he is worth a small interest bet. At Folkestone tonight I like OKIKOKI at 8/1 in the handicap at 6.50. There is just a bit too much strength in depth in this race but he is worth a small bet. At York My Ebor selection was a straight choice and I have gone with TRANQUIL TIGER ahead of OGEE which are the two horses that stood out on my trends. Reasons for that are below.

Overall I have to go with SHANAHAN as my "nap" in the Newton Abbot 7.05

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TODAY'S RACING


I Want to start with The Ebor today.


YORK 2:35 - TOTESPORT EBOR STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+) 1m6f

4/1 Purple Moon, 13/2 Scriptwriter, 8/1 Tranquil Tiger, 10/1 Honolulu, 12/1 Group Captain, Minkowski, Strategic Mount, 14/1 Hitchcock, 16/1 Mudawin, Ogee, Pevensey, 20/1 Wing Collar, 22/1 Peppertree Lane, 28/1 Lake Poet, 33/1 All The Good, Mutawaffer, Solent, 40/1 Castle Howard, Nosferatu, 50/1 El Tango.

What I have done in the Ebor this year is to produce the Severest statistical tests I can do. I havent just
done the stats for the race I probed Deeper and gone as far as I can go and put every runner through as
rigorous a test as I Can do. Every Horse fails at least one statistic and that shows that I have not given
anything the benefit of the doubt. I do like the stats in the race. They can not all be right of course but
its a matter of finding which are best. What I will do is Post the Statistics below and a Brief Conclusion.

* EBOR Statistics are at the Bottom of this Message
* What Stats which horses fail and a More detailed Preview is on the message board

Conclusion

* I Felt OGEE and TRANQUIL TIGER both Came out best on my trends by some way
* The Final selection for me came down to 2 issues
* Am I more worried by Ogee's headgear or by Tranquil Tiger's Jockey ?
* I like Both but just shade it to TRANQUIL TIGER
* I think OGEE has a far better jockey in Ryan Moore
* Also like the fact OGEE comes from the same Ascot handicap as the 2003 and 2006 winner
* Concerned that he wears Heargear which isnt a good sign in races like this
* TRANQUIL TIGER is as statistically perfect as you can get on my stats
* Richard Hughes will need to ride to his best and get luck in running
* Massive respect to many improving horses in the race
* Of course Purple Moon and others look to have a great chance
* I see PURPLE MOON as no more than a saver myself
* I have not enough space to elaborate on every horses chances in detail
* I have done this on the message board though and you may find that worth reading
* Its all self explanatory and easy to understand
* I will use the E Mail Today to give my Selection and danger
* My Ebor horse this year is TRANQUIL TIGER 10/1
* The main danger is Ogee

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YORK 1.30 - ROYAL & SUNALLIANCE AND MOTABILITY STAKES (HANDICAP) (CLASS 2) (3yo+,0-105) 1m2f88y

4/1 Heaven Knows, 8/1 Great Hawk, River Tiber, 10/1 Font, Greek Well, 12/1 Players Please, Star Of Light, 14/1 Flying Clarets, Smokey Oakey, 16/1 Fort Churchill, Ofaraby, Peruvian Prince, 25/1 Collateral Damage, Nanton, Plum Pudding, Yarqus, 33/1 Hurlingham, Impeller, 40/1 Luberon,

* This is a Huge field 10f handicap
* Cant be wasting too long on the race
* There are 14 renewals
* There are 3 Trends that all 14 winners passed
* These are the trends that I would stay with for a shortlist
* None of the 14 winners had ran in Group class before
* All 43 lost and I include that stat as they score very badly in all similar races
* This has been a lightweights race in its 14 year history
* Horses that carried 9st 3lbs or more have a 0-50 record
* I also intend to oppose horses that drop from 12f
* This isnt a totally safe trend but all that tried failed in the 14 renewals
* None managed it in 24 similar races in August in other tracks either
* I would also want to oppose seasonal debutants
* The favourite HEAVEN KNOWS hasnt been seen in 362 days
* I looked at how many handicaps at this meeting went to seasonal debutants
* At this meeting since 1987 handicap seasonal debs are 1-57
* Only 1 race in the last 20 years at this meeting won first time out in a handicap
* I think as he is favourite I would try and oppose him
* If these stats work out the following horses should provide the winner
* Greek Well - Peruvian Prince- Font - Flying Clarets -Players Please -Hurlingham -Nanton -Smokey Oakey
* Wont attempt to narrow the field down any further as its too hard

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YORK 2:00 - IRELAND GIMCRACK STAKES (GROUP 2) (COLTS & GELDINGS) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

5/2 Swiss Franc, 100/30 Sir Gerry, 9/2 Great Barrier Reef, 6/1 Art Advisor, Easy Target, 10/1 Nacho Libre, 20/1 Paveroc, 33/1 Imperial Mint.

* The Gimcrack is a Group 2 race for juveniles over 6f
* Over the years lighter raced horses have looked to have the edge
* May not be a safe stat. Last years winner had 4 runs
* The last 4 winners had 4-3-3-3 previous runs
* That doesnt look to me like a lightly raced angle
* The busiest winner was Turtle Island (1993) who had 5 runs
* That horse was a machine and a triple Group 1 winner
* He is however the only horse in 20 renewals that had 5 runs
* You could argue that SWISS FRANC and PAVEROC may be too exposed
* Equally you can argue the sands are shifting and its inexperienced horses that are weak
* There is also - I feel - a Debate to be had about what grade of race horses come from
* Do you want horses already tested in Group class or do you want unexposed horses
* The angle I want to use is to Oppose the Following
* I want to oppose Experienced horses already tested in Group class
* Only 1 of the last 5 winners came from a Group race
* In the last 20 years horses that had 3 or more runs and came from Group class were poor
* They had a 1-44 record in 20 years
* Thats poor considering 5 were beaten favourites and 7 beaten second favourites
* This is the one trend I would stay with. They could be the wrong types
* SWISS FRANK - ART ADVISOR - IMPERIAL MINT Fail this trend
* I would be looking for alternatives
* I could not bet the unraced GREAT BARRIER REEF
* There has been 40 Group races for 2 year olds in August at 6f
* None of the winners were unraced
* Since 1987 there have been 193 of these races run at any time of year
* Unraced horses were 0-12. Not a strong stat but no unraced horse has won
* With PAVEROC having 5 runs and looking quite exposed
* I feel the best chance belongs to one of these 3 runners
* Sir Gerry - Easy Target - Nacho Libre
* I feel 5/1 about SIR GERRY looks the best bet each way in the race

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CARLISLE 2.15 - CBS OUTDOOR HANDICAP (CLASS 6) (3yo+,0-65) 6f192y

4/1 Top Dirham, 6/1 Wolfman, 13/2 Gifted Flame, 7/1 Tommy Tobougg, 8/1 General Feeling, Megalo Maniac, 10/1 Grand Diamond, 14/1 Pitbull, 16/1 Cadwell, Linden´s Lady, Snow Bunting, 20/1 Desert Hunter, Zap Attack, 25/1 Bordello, Musicmaestroplease.

* This is a low grade handicap just short of 7f
* I want to oppose the favourite TOP DIRHAM but its not clear what with
* Good reasons for opposing him as a 9 year old absent over a Month
* Old age and Long absences go together like Oil and Water
* I looked at EVERY Low grade handicap between July and September
* This was every handicap at 8f or less
* Thats a 3 month spread on All handicaps under a Mile
* There were over Two Thousand of these races (2068 races)
* Look at Horses aged 9 or more that were absent over a Month
* They had a miserable 1-167 record and that makes TOP DIRHAM a bad bet
* The record in August was 0-62 and I would be surprised to see him win
* Pretty hard to find any other negatives
* I would be against LINDENS LADY as the only female
* Against TOMMY TOBOUGG as the only horse coming from a 3yo handicap
* These types can win and thats a personal opinion not a statistical one
* CADWELL has a very weak profile
* Hard to rule out many more fancied runners
* I like PITBULL who was hampered recently. He is fit and looks ready to win
* WOLFMAN has let me down before but is another that should go close
* I think PITBULL is the bet and WOLFMAN the saver

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HAMILTON 2.25 - PHILIPS CLAIMING STAKES (CLASS 6) (3yo+) 1m1f36y

7/4 El Coto, 5/2 Soldiers Quest, 3/1 Prince Samos, 12/1 Defi, Ming Vase, 20/1 Sierras Future, 25/1 Papa´s Princess, 33/1 Showtime Annie, 50/1 Fiddlers Creek, Kirkhammerton, 66/1 Harts In Mo Shun, 100/1 Drury Lane, Simba´s Pride, 200/1 Stravonian.

* This is a 9f Claiming race
* Reasonable reasons to oppose El Coto and Soldiers Quest
* This would leave PRINCE SAMOS as the strongest runner
* With SOLDIERS QUEST he looks pretty inexperienced with 3 runs
* Since 1991 between 8f and 10f there has been 79 Claimers in August
* Horses with under 4 runs had a weak 1-65 record
* Sierras Future and Papa´s Princess also fail that trend
* You really want more than 3 runs
* SOLDIERS QUEST hasnt ran in 116 days either
* All 79 August claiming winners at similar trips ran within 80 days
* I have to prefer PRINCE SAMOS to EL COTO
* This is simply because EL COTO comes from a 7f race into a 9f race
* Horses that did that scored badly and I see it as a disadvantage
* My choice would be PRINCE SAMOS

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CARLISLE 2.50 - 2/1 Paddy Jack , 7/2 Know No Fear, 6/1 C´Mon You Irons, 7/1 Admiralcollingwood, Blitzen, 12/1 Rocheport, 16/1 Emef Princess, 20/1 Whispering Desert

* Pretty standard 5f juvenile maiden
* Quite like KNOW NO FEAR is the ground isnt too soft
* I think he has had 3 genuine excuses in his 4-2-2 form figures
* He is bred to hate soft ground so happy to excuse his debut run on soft
* He was then second on Heavy ground - Again not ideal
* His last run came at Wolves another surface he isnt bred to like
* Now on a more suitable surface with 3 runs behind him I like him each way
* Wont be betting him myself as this looks a warm race

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YORK 3.10 - DARLEY YORKSHIRE OAKS (GROUP 1) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

4/7 Peeping Fawn, 9/4 Silkwood, 10/1 Allegretto, 20/1 Dalvina, 50/1 Darrfonah, 66/1 Trick Or Treat, Under The Rainbow,

* Only 7 runners now race in the Yorkshire Oaks
* Each way bets are not really ideal now
* Hard to see past PEEPING FAWN and SILKWOOD
* ALLEGRETTO comes from 2 miles and no past winner managed that
* There are no statistical reasons why SILKWOOD Cant win this race
* There are none against PEEPING FAWN
* She won the Nassau last time and I raised the issue that she may need a break
* She has now ran in Four Group 1 races in 10 weeks
* She has ran 9 times this year and has been on the go since April
* No past winner was busy
* She didnt look like she needed a rest at Goodwood but they rarely do before flopping
* Thats my only worry with PEEPING FAWN
* I dont see it as something I can predict
* I wouldnt bet her at odds on though
* Despite the fact there are only 7 runners I would go e/w
* Forced to select a bet it would be SILKWOOD each way at 3/1

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CARLISLE 3.25 - WEATHERBYS BANK HANDICAP (CLASS 4) (3yo+,0-80) 5f

6/1 Compton Classic, Katie Boo, Trojan Flight, 8/1 Glasshoughton, Sir Nod, Strensall, 10/1 Darcy´s Pride, 12/1 Bahamian Duke, Divine Spirit, 14/1 Ptarmigan Ridge, Royal Challenge, 16/1 Rainbow Bay, 20/1 Kerry´s Dream, Kings College Boy, 25/1 Colorus.

* This is a 5f all aged handicap for horses rated 0-80
* There has been 12 renewals of this race
* Statistically its a bit messy and its certainly hard
* You can argue 3 year olds are weak with a 1-31 record
* Both 3 year olds in this race are also Fillies
* Fillies have a 0-30 record in this race as well
* Both DARCYS PRIDE and KERRYS DREAM are 3yo fillies
* KATIE BOO is also a female horse
* I dont see any other horses I would be too negative about
* That wont help much
* The horse I felt may be worth a small interest is pretty frustrating
* Thats KINGS COLLEGE BOY 14/1
* I know he has let so many down over the years but he is 14/1 today
* He has lost his last 24 races but he has been 1-2-3-4 in 11 of these races
* He is well handicapped
* He was beaten just 3.5 lengths in this race last year
* He didnt have the run of the race last year
* He is 12lbs lower in the weights this year and carries 9lbs less
* He is the sort to pop up at 14/1. Not a bet at short odds
* However at 20/1 it might be the time to risk a small bet on him
* He has had the same prep race as last year and could well win this on his handicap mark

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HAMILTON 5.45 - NEILSLAND HANDICAP (CLASS 5) (3yo+,0-70) 0 6f5y

2/1 Word Perfect, 3/1 Howards Tipple, 4/1 Joyeaux, 6/1 Rondo, 10/1 Regal Raider, 16/1 Legal Set, 20/1 Oeuf A La Neige, 25/1 Tanforan, 33/1 Obe One 66/1 Mutayam.

* I fancy JOYEAUX
* This is a low grade 6f handicap with 21 renewals
* There are 229 similar renewals at other tracks
* I dont want HOWARDS TIPPLE coming from a 5f 3yo handicap
* Only 2 of the 229 winners could say that
* Horses like REGAL RAIDER that came from Claimers scored badly
* They had a weak 2-112 record
* None of the 229 winners were as old s LEGAL SET and he's rejected
* All 21 Hamilton winners had 4 + runs this season
* I dont expect TANFORAN to be fit enough
* RONDO refused to race last time so must be a dodgy proposition
* His stable ran Skhilling Spirit last week and he twice refused to race
* I like JOYEAUX and watched her on tape 3 runs ago take the eye
* She ran a great race just touched off next time out
* On her last run she was just outpaced at 5f and couldnt get competetive
* I think this distance will suit
* She was beaten 1.75 lengths in this race last year with 9st 8lbs
* She was topweight that day. She now has 7lbs less weight
* My only issue is that she is a filly coming from a 5f race
* All 20 of these Lost in the 21 Hamilton renewals
* There were plenty that won at other tracks though
* Had JOYEAUX Ran over 6f last time she would be a strong bet
* Its just a small concern I have about her today
* I still think JOYEAUX is worth a bet at 4/1

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FOLKESTONE 6.20 - 3/1 Ruby Delta, 7/2 Suzi´s Decision, 9/2 Soggy Dollar, 5/1 Halsion Challenge, 12/1 Brave Mave, Moment´s Notice, 14/1 Priceless Speedfit, 16/1 Dancer´s Legacy, Mistress Eva, 33/1 Teadancer, 50/1 Bushy Dell,

* This is a 7f Auction maiden for juveniles
* 8 renewals of this race
* 72 similar races at other tracks
* Of the market leaders I see SUZI'S DECISION as the strongest
* Horses like SOGGY DOLLAR that have to concede weight to everything struggle
* Only 1 of the 72 past winners carried the weight he carries
* RUBY DELTA is pretty exposed with 6 runs
* He comes from a Nursery handicap
* In 72 races horses that did that had a surprisingly weak 1-28 record
* Cant have an unraced £1000 puchase like PRICELESS SPEEDFIT
* HALSION CHALLENGE was beaten too far for me last time
* SUZI'S DECISION would be my pick
* Not too worried she has had 1 race. The last 4 winners had 0 0 1 1 previous runs

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FOLKESTONE 6.50 - 9/4 Classira, 5/2 Summer Dancer, 11/2 Lordship, 6/1 Carlitos Spirit, 10/1 Dubai Magic, 12/1 Okikoki, 14/1 Yerevan, 16/1 Lord Theo, 20/1 Cheap Street,

* This is a 7f handicap for 3 year olds
* Did a bit of work recently on OKIKOKI
* Quite liked him. He has some back class
* Just starting to think he hasnt been staying a Mile
* His maiden win came at 6f. Many of his best runs at 6f
* His sire isnt known for passing on stamina
* Neither the Sire or the Dam raced at beyond 6f in their career
* The Dams produced 7 horses and none have yet won beyond 6f
* I think OKIKOKI is a sprinter
* This 6f trip may be right up his street and he looks a big price to me

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YORK 2.35 - TOTE EBOR STATISTICS

* Horses that had under 15 starts won 17 of the last 20 renewals
* Only 3 horses in the last 2 decades had over 15 previous runs
* These were 1992-1997-2002 and they all had the following in common
* They were Males aged 4 or 5 that ran 1-2-3-4-5 last time over at least 12f
* They also ran within a month - had at least 6 runs that year - Less than 8st 7lbs
* They also had not ran in above Class 2 before
* Exposed horses with 15+ runs that fit the above patterns can be considered
* Otherwise you would prefer a lighter raced horses with under 15 runs
* Horses aged 6 or more have a 1-77 record and havent won since Sea Pidgeon 1978
* That sole winner was Sergeant Cecil carrying just 8st 12lbs and he won later in Group 2
* Horses coming from York have a 0-41 record
* Horses coming from Goodwoods 16f pattern race had a 0-11 record
* Horses that had ran in Group 1 or Group 2 class before had a 0-45 record
* Horses that ran in Listed Class and no higher had a 1-80 record *(could be a bad stat)
* Horses that in the last fortnight have done very badly. Just the 1997 winner managed it from 75 that tried
* Fillies have a weak 1-37 record
* All 18 horses with 4lbs penalties lost - although 2 with 7lbs penalties won
* All 20 winners won within their last 6 races. Those that didnt were 0-97
* Only 1 winner since 1987 came from a race short of 12f. They should be opposed
* Horses with 6 or more career wins are 0-58
* Horses with 9st 5lbs or more have a 0-56 record
* Horses with 9st 9lbs or more have a 0-30 record
* All 3 year olds carrrying a penalty lost
* 3 year olds carrying 8st 9lbs or more havent won yet (0-12)
* 4 year olds with 13 or more starts had a 1-80 record
* 4 year olds with under 7 starts have a 0-18 record
* 4 year olds that had ran in Listed/Group class before are 0-70
* 4 year olds with penalties were 0-21
* 5 year olds that havent raced in a month had a 0-43 record
* 5 year olds with 8st 9lbs or more have a 1-55 record

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