No Account Bet

The Clock has run its course today and I have had to stop without finding a Full Bet. I have not had a chance to do Bath yet in detail. If I see anything there I will post on the board later. It is a long season and you have periods of bad weather - or fatigue or not seeing much and I think I have just come out of one of those times. Post Ascot is
usually the same. Forcing Bets just each day just results in losing runs. The right ones will come and I would rather wait for that to happen than just stick a bet out I am not commited to. Should be a few days of long detailed messages now starting with todays.

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TODAYS RACING


I am keeping Carlisle at Arms length today as it looks too hard. The Maiden at 2pm is down to several factors. How Good are the newcomers. Will FEISTY ROYALE handle soft ground and how soft is it . How will her high draw and the NAWAAFF's draw work out for them today as there is an argument that they are not well drawn. Wasnt a race I saw a way into.

SALISBURY 2.10 - New Milton Construction E B F Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) (2yo) 5f

6/4 Drastic Measure, 4/1 Flying Indian, 7/1 Don´t Tell Anna, 8/1 Amylee, 10/1 Cocabana, Royal Confidence, 12/1 Katrina Bee, 16/1 Cosenza, 50/1 Edge Of Light.

* Fillies maiden for 2 year olds
* Not much you can say
* DRASTIC MEASURE has the sexy entries
* I thought her "trainer stats" were nothing special
* In fillies maidens Prescott hasnt had a winner with a once raced horse short of 7f
* Think there are several trainers that have to be respected
* Clive Cox's best record with unraced juvenils comes in fillies races
* His AMYLEE has to be considered especially as unraced horse won 3 of the last 4
* I would argue against ROYAL CONFIDENCE on the ground
* I would argue against COSENZA on the ground as well
* Ideally I would want an each way alternative to the favourite
* I cant see a safe one I would trust

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CARLISLE 2.30 - 3/1 Brixworth Scribe, 7/2 Liberty Ship, 6/1 Attribution, Elijah Pepper, 10/1 Quest For Success, 12/1 Ponder Anew, Starlight Girl, Whiskey Creek, 16/1 Best Suited, Coffee Cup, 33/1 Magnushomestwo, 66/1 Keep Shining, Smilodon.

* I couldnt bet QUEST FOR SUCCESS
* As an unraced Male horse with 9st 2lbs in an auction maiden its a tall order to win
* From 223 identical races in June and July no horse has defied that weight
* ATTRIBUTION 7/1 is unraced and I would be concerned soft ground would hurt him
* ELIJAH PEPPER is interesting and his trainer does well in these races
* The 80 day absence is a worry though. None of the 223 winners defied that absence
* I thought STARLIGHT GIRL was statistically very strong and good value
* With her you never know what Tim Easterby's plans are and she isnt drawn that well
* LIBERTY SHIP has a clear each way chance from a stable whose trends I describe as positive
* BRIXWORTH SCRIBE has an attractive profile with 3 runs and a Good draw
* Quite whether he will appreciate this 5f race isnt clear as he was a little outpaced over 6f last time
* Wouldnt surprise me if PONDER ANEW beat her stablemate Attribution - Watch the market
* The evidence isnt really there for a selection you can be confident about
* BRIXWORTH SCRIBE looks the most solid runner and few can be fancied against him
* STARLIGHT GIRL would be the one that interests me at 14/1 and is a possible saver


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SALISBURY 2:40 - Smith & Williamson Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 4) (3yo) 6f212y

7/4 Fondled, Safwa, 6/1 Labor Day, 8/1 Dragon Flower, 10/1 Plucky, 16/1 Cape Velvet, 25/1 Rustic Flame, 50/1 Decision Day, 100/1 Polish Prospect, Tagula Song.

* 8 Renewals of this race
* 35 similar renewals at other tracks
* FONDLED ran very well last time against decent horses
* SAFWA also ran well faced with a very hard task on her debur
* The fact FONDLED has two runs would be a small advantage statistically
* Barry Hills record at Salisbury in these races is poor (0-18)
* His DRAGON FLOWER has been absent 267 days and I couldnt select her
* She also has a doubtful pedigree for soft ground
* There is enough strength in this race to expect unraced horses to struggle
* PLUCKY is unraced and could be found wanting
* Her stablemate LABOR DAY may well be being handicapped
* Marginal preference for FONDLED 9/4 over SAFWA
* The safest play is clearly the each way double

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CARLISLE 3.00 - 9/2 Networker, 13/2 Heureux, Spinning, 8/1 Burley Flame, Webbow, 10/1 Gunfighter, Kirkby´s Treasure, Letham Island, 12/1 Ballyhurry, Wasalat, 14/1 Lago D´Orta, 16/1 Champain Sands, 20/1 Franksalot, 33/1 Choreography.

* This is the Consolation race for the Carlisle Bell Handicap run at 3.30
* It is for horses that have not got into the Carlisle Bell
* I think the stats in this race are a little complicated
* Carlisle has had 43 very similar races at this time of year
* BURLEY FLAME Has a 60 day absence - that would worry me
* Only 1 of the 43 winners had a similar absence
* I would worry about that absence with just 1 race in 15 months
* His weight is also a concern
* WEBBOW has had 1 race in a year just a few days ago when 2nd at 40/1
* He could easily regress from that race. Wouldnt rule him out but he is unsafe
* I thought LAGO D'ORTA looked weak with 1 run this year aged 7
* I cant have GUNFIGHTER - He comes from a 6f race to a Mile race with just 5 runs
* There have been 858 similar handicaps run in June and July
* Look at hos horses with under 7 races that came from 6f races and its dreadful
* Only 1 of the 858 winners had that profile and the overall record was 1-95
* I dont think it would be sensible to underestimate NETWORKER who is WWW recently
* I would be happy to take on the 3 year old filly LETHAM ISLAND
* She is the only 3 year old - one of just two fillies and she has been absent 40 days
* Alan Swinbank can be a very harder trainer to read but his KIRKBY'S TREASURE appeals
* In 2005 and 2004 when with Alan Berry he was 6th and 9th in the Carlisle Bell itself
* He had more weight in those races. He has since plummeted in the handicap and has changed stables
* Moving from Alan Berry to Alan Swinbank at the start of the season must be a serious positive
* KIRKBYS TREASURE has won off a 16lbs higher mark
* He hasnt won in 2 years but he has won here and he is well handicapped
* He now runs in the consolation race off bottomweight
* He could clearly make this suffer from a low rating of 60
* His owners are local and I think KIRKBYS TREASURE could win this easily off botomweight
* His flaw may be whether he truly stays. Looks best at 7f - Wont stay a stiff Mile
* This is a very easy mile just 200 yards beyond 7f and his stamina isnt assured

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SALISBURY 3:10 - Doccombe European Bibury Cup (Handicap) (Class 3) (3yo,0-95) 1m4f

4/1 Moon Quest, 5/1 Mad Rush, Zoom One, 6/1 Intiquilla, 8/1 Eglevski, Hi Calypso, Latanazul, 12/1 Algarade, 16/1 Bergonzi, Oakley Heffert, 33/1 Sweetheart.

* This is a 3 year old handicap over 12 furlongs
* There has been 16 renewals of this race
* Godolphin set a poser by running MOON QUEST
* He has ran just once winning a maiden
* This is a weak 0-95 - In fact its a 0-85 for MOON QUEST as 85 is his best opponent
* When Godolphin run a once raced horse ina 3 year old handicap its significant
* They do this when they think the handicapper has made a mistake rating their horse
* They have done this 10 times before - and 6 times they have had winners
* They must feel that MOON QUEST has been underated by the handicapper
* I have no problems with once raced horses in this race
* It wont be easy but MOON QUEST is probably more than capable of winning a 0-85
* His maiden win was followed by the 2nd 3rd and 6th coming out and winning their maidens
* With the stable record I have to make MOON QUEST a positive
* There has been 116 similar races run in June before
* There are some interesting stats refering to fillies in these races
* Fillies that have 7 or more runs have a 0-64 record so SWEETHEART is out
* Fillies that have been absent over a Month only won 1 of the 116 similar races
* This is a worry for LATANAZUL and INTIQUILLA has a similar absence
* I want to oppose some horses with 7 + runs
* They could be too exposed
* In the last 3 years in similar races they have a 0-47 record
* They have won several before that but only 1 of the 116 winners had 7 + runs and a months absence
* EGLEVESKI and OAKLEY HEFFERT have to overcome that
* To beat fast improvers and well handicapped lightly raced horses wont be easy
* Not many horses with 7 runs can do that especially with an absence of over a Month to overcome
* In this Salisbury race (16 renewals) only 2 winners had 7 or more starts
* Since 1998 in this race horses with 7 + runs have a 0-23 record
* No horse in this race won with 7 runs unless they ran within 2 weeks
* In this race horses that came from handicaps that had 7 + runs had a 0-28 record
* BERGONZI fails both the above 2 stats
* EGLEVSKI - SWEETHEART and OAKLEY HEFFERT also fail both
* There are 5 runnners that look strong statistically
* MOON QUEST - MAD RUSH - ZOOM ONE - ALGARADE - HI CALYPSO
* Nothing statistically wrong with ALGARDE but she looked dissapointing last time
* I think MAD RUSH is well handicapped and met something too hot last time
* MAD RUSH has no statistical problems as far as I can see
* ZOOM ONE ran a nice comeback race and his stable have won this before

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CARLISLE 3.30 - 5/1 Regent´s Secret, 8/1 Daaweitza, Logsdail, 10/1 Kasumi, Veiled Applause, 11/1 Zennerman, 12/1 Blacktoft, Exit Smiling, 14/1 Bajan Parkes, Just Bond, 16/1 Bold Marc, Prince Evelith, Rubenstar, Stoic Leader, United Nations, 20/1 Shot To Fame, 33/1 Hypnotic.

* The CARLISLE BELL doesnt look easy
* Confused stats very much like the consolation race at 3pm
* REGENTS SECRET won easily last time and has been laid out for this race
* REGENTS SECRET won this last year and he surely has to go close again
* There are a few angles around exposed horses that step up in trip or have absences
* They dont score well and I would be looking to avoid these horses who include -
* Shot To Fame - Rubenstar - Stoic Leader - Zennerman
* I thought weight and absence would beat DAAWEITZA
* I thought there was plenty of strength in depth in the race
* Exit Smiling and Just Bond to name but two
* Hard not to like REGENTS SECRET but this looks quite tough.

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SALISBURY 3:40 - Winterthur Life Fillies' Handicap (Class 5) (3yo,0-70) 6f

7/2 Hucking Hope, 4/1 Izabela Hannah, 5/1 Whipchord, 7/1 Dualagi, Nabra, 8/1 Rubilini, 12/1 Camissa, Vivi Belle, 16/1 By The Edge,

* This is a 6f Fillies handicap
* Salisbury has 5 renewals of this race
* Take a ruthless approach to these 5 races and there is a shortlist
* All 5 winners had at least 9 runs and at least 3 this season
* Horses with under 9 rune (0-36) havent done well in this race
* If that applies then WHIPCHORD comes out best
* My problem with Whipcord is the Ground
* She may not want it this soft
* There have been 32 other fillies handicaps around this trip and class
* 31 of the 32 winners ran within the previous month
* Clearly defying an absence hasnt been easy
* Therefore DUALAGI - NABRA - RUBILINI - VIVI BELLE are rejected
* RUBILINI has to drop from 8f - Only 1 of the 32 winners did that
* DUALAGI and BY THE EDGE both have to come from a 5f race
* Horses that did that with under 7 starts had a poor 0-38 record
* No inexperienced horse managed that in 32 similar races
* They may not be ready for the step up in trip and both are rejected
* HUCKING HOPE looks to have a reasonable chance but I am concerned
* I am not impressed with the fact she has had 1 run this season
* All 5 Salisbury winners had at least 3
* In the 32 similar races only 4 of the 32 winners had 1 race this season
* However None were as exposed as her with 9 runs
* You can aklso point to a bad record from horses with 1 run that year coming from handicaps
* So far all 37 that came from handicaps with 1 run that season lost
* Circumstantial perhaps but it would put me off HUCKING HOPE
* NABRA is another horse with 1 run this year coming from a handicap (0-37)
* She also has a 58 day absence to overcome
* WHIPCORD is the best horse statistically for me but the grounds her issue
* Izabela Hannah and Camissa have the next strongest profiles
* Nothing went right for CAMISSA last time

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SALISBURY 4:10 - Noel Cannon Memorial Trophy Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+,0-100) 1m

7/4 Ordnance Row, 3/1 Apex, 6/1 Pentecost, 8/1 Apply Dapply, Gaelic Princess, Prince Of Thebes, 20/1 Prime Number.

* This is an 8f Handicap for horses rated 0-97
* Initially I wondered if PENTECOST may outclass this field
* Liked the fact he was 5lbs better than any other runner officially
* Liked the fact he comes from the Hunt Cup at Ascot
* The 1990 -2000 - 2002 winners of this race did that
* In the end his age put me off a bit
* There has been 188 Class 3 and Class 2 handicaps in June and July over 8f
* Horses aged 8 or more had a pretty miserable 2-143 record
* None of these had large weights and that record worries me for older horses
* Only 14 of the 188 winners were fillies and none as old as GAELIC PRINCESS
* The other filly APPLY DAPPLY would be the first female to drop in trip
* I cant have PRIME NUMBER with 1 run this season
* His trainer Jon Akehurst wants to win this race and also runs Prince Of Thebes
* PRINCE OF THEBES may struggle on the ground
* Akehurst had a better chance with Audience who was due to run but doesnt due to the ground
* APEX is on a roll but up significantly in class and handicap mark
* ORDNANCE ROW has proven himself in significantly better class than Apex

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CARLISLE 4.30 - 4/1 Dispol Isle, 11/2 Passion Fruit, 6/1 Coconut Queen, Colchium, 7/1 Damelza, 8/1 Cassie´s Choice, 10/1 Ava´s World, 11/1 Angel Voices, 12/1 Flylowflylong, 14/1 Inaminute, Kudbeme,

* Fillies Handicap just short of 7f
* Only 4 renewals of this race but 93 similar races at other tracks
* AVA'S WORLD doesnt appeal with 228 days absence
* Three year olds like CASSIES CHOICE that have 1 run that year score badly (1-49)
* I dont fancy COLCHIUM on the ground and down in trip
* DAMELZA has a chance but may possibly need 1 more run
* PASSION FRUIT won this race by 5 lengths last year
* On the plus side he is a 79 rated horse that only has 1 opponent rated 71 or more
* On the negative side he is up in the weights this year and has more horses to beat
* PASSION FRUIT can also miss the break and is "Tricky"
* DISPOL ISLE has a strong form chance
* COCONUT QUEEN's chance may be down to how soft the ground is
* She got away with it last week here over C+D If todays ground is worse its an issue
* I expect Passion Fruit - Dispol Isle - Coconut Queen to provide the winner

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SALISBURY 4:40 - J S Gledhill & Associates Surveyors & Valuers Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+,0-95) 1m1f198y

4/1 Ingratitude, Oh Glory Be, 5/1 Celtic Spirit, Nawaqees, 6/1 Full Victory, Mutawassel, 10/1 Invention, 20/1 Invasian.

* 0-93 Handicap for all aged horses
* In June and July there has been 248 similar races
* Hard to fancy INVASIAN with 263 days absence
* Only 5 of the 248 winners had that and none aged 5 or more like him (0-73)
* CELTIC SPIRIT has 1 run this year and a 81 day absence
* None of the 248 winners had 1 run that year and such a long absence
* It would worry me that OH GLORY BE is the only filly in this race
* Fillies with 1 run this season score well surprisingly enough so she isnt a negative
* Being the only filly concerns me though
* MUTAWASSEL is impossible to rate
* He is an older exposed horse with an absence
* None of the 248 winners could say that
* Horses aged 6 or mopre like him absent over a month won just 6 races
* None of these carried the weight MUTAWASSEL has to
* I thought the strongest runners statistically were these -
* NAWAQEES - INGRATITUDE - INVENTION - FULL VICTORY

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CARLISLE 5.00 - 4/1 Bo McGinty, 11/2 Namir, 7/1 Hypnosis, Playful Dane, Welcome Approach, 10/1 First Order, Glasshoughton, 14/1 Circuit Dancer, Deserted Dane, Mr Rooney, 20/1 Abientot, Artie, Ryedale Ovation.

* I dont like HYPNOSIS as she is the only filly and has an absence
* No filly has won over this Course and distance with such an absence before
* Almost all similar races at Carlisle go to horses that dont have absences
* I cant have CIRCUIT DANCER - ARTIE or ABIENTOT because of this
* Dont want DESERTED DANE as the only 3 year old - who recently havent done well
* I cant have Ryedale Ovation at this trip and on this ground
* I fancied FIRST ORDER strongly last time but he flopped
* I dont know why - but it is offputting as is the soft ground
* GLASSHOUGHTON beat WELCOME APPROACH when 1st and 2nd in this last year
* GLASSHOUGHTON is lower in the weights and comes from the same prep race
* Whether he can show his form on this ground is a doubt
* WELCOME APPROACH may have his measure
* Nothing wrong with Namir's chance either

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