Friday September 28th

No Account Bet

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Today's Best Bet

Lingfield 2.20

WARRIOR DRIVE


I think we can afford to step on the Gas a little and increase the number of bets now. The last few weeks of the season are upon us. It has been a very good season and its all about increasing the Account Profit and putting the Icing on the cake without taking unnecesary risks which are
all over the place at this time of year. Should be some stronger messages now. I considered two horses for account bets today and its simply a matter of taking calculated risks. I think REEL GIFT will prove everyone wrong in the
Sales race at Ascot (3.10) and I feel 5/1 is a big price and she is worth a bet but I do think there is a lot of unnecesary risk in the bet which prevents me from making her an account bet. I am backing her myself though. My best bet today is in a Maiden Hurdle at Lingfield. WARRIOR DRIVE is about 7/4 and I think he will win this race. The dilemma is whether to take around 7/4 with many "Unknown" dangers in the race. In the end I resisted the temptation to bang him on the account as few bookmakers have priced the race up and he is not a big price. This pair stand out to me today as "worth betting" and I make WARRIOR DRIVE my best bet of the day. Hoping to find a strong bet
over the weekend and quicken the pace a little now.

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TODAY'S RACING


ASCOT 2:00 - EBF RATCLIFFES SYNDICATION CLASSIFIED STAKES (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-90) 1m2f

15/8 Lang Shining, 4/1 Tears Of A Clown, 6/1 Font, 8/1 King Charles, 10/1 Ajhar, 11/1 Chantaco, Padlocked, Winged Flight, 12/1 Ballinteni.

* This is a Classified race over 10 furlongs
* Its not a great race statistically
* Every runner is rated either 88 - 89 - 90
* That shows there is nothing between the whole field
* We have no fillies in the race and no penalised horses
* Therefore Seperating these will not be easy
* You Probably need a well handicapped horse to win as so many have close ratings.
* There has been 46 similar races to this run at this time of year
* Just how satisfactory that is I dont know
* Statistically I am looking for any area of weakness in any horse
* Horses aged 3 that step up in trip from 8f or less dont score well
* They have a 1-41 record which includes 3 beaten favourites and 16 runners under 8/1
* 3 year olds up in trip may well be a tough thing to do - The 1-41 record in 46 races suggests so
* Dont forget as all 9 runners are rated 88-89-90 it wont take much of a disadvantage to be telling
* LANG SHINING - PADLOCKED - WINGED FLIGHT all have that to overcome
* LANG SHINING is progressive and could defy that stats but he is also a short price
* Horses that come from 3yo handicaps also have a weak record
* PADLOCKED (Already opposed) and KING CHARLES have that to overcome
* Horses like KING CHARLES that do that when having over 8 career runs are 0-26
* The only horses that have overcome this have been lightly raced horses
* AJHAR wouldnt be for me either despite being well backed in the offices
* He is the only horse coming from a maiden and that wont be easy
* Only 4 of the 46 winners of similar races did that and all 4 had just 2 career starts
* AJHAR has ran 4 times and also has a troublesome absence of 133 days
* When 9 runners are rated within 3 lbs of each other AJHAR will have to be very well handicapped to win
* His trainer is on record as saying "He isnt well handicapped" and that suggests he wont win
* He may have improved - or his trainer may not be accurate - he looks to have a weak profile to me
* I cant have CHANTACO with just 1 run since April - Thats not a "Fit" profile
* He has also failed to beat a single horse in his last 2 runs
* I think I would suggest a shortlist of 3 horses that dont appear to have any obvious flaws
* FONT- TEARS OF A CLOWN -BALLINTERI
* I have no problems with older horses with absences in these races like BALLINTERI
* What I dont like about him is that he has his first run for Gaye Kellaway
* I would imagine she would want to run him and see what she has without destroying his rating
* I would prefer FONT and TEARS OF A CLOWN as the most likely winners
* Both are lightly raced 4 year olds which isnt a problem statistically - neither is their absence
* I will give the vote to FONT who looks like he could be capable of winning this
* I would want to save on TEARS OF A CLOWN though
* FONT to win and TEARS OF A CLOWN the saver and unless Lang Shining overcomes issues one may win

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HAYDOCK 2:10 - JMC IT MAIDEN STAKES (DIV I) (CLASS 5) (2yo) 6f

7/2 Dharori, 4/1 Hunt The Bottle, 11/2 Change Alley, 7/1 Barbary Boy, 8/1 Horatio Carter, 10/1 Italian Art, 12/1 Game Park, 14/1 Gardes, 16/1 Farpedon, 25/1 An Scaribh, Tito, 33/1 Rio Sabotini, Rough Sketch, 50/1 Addwaitya, 100/1 Sir Joey.

* This is a 6f maiden for 2 year olds
* Pretty meaningless trends
* The worst profile comes from horses stepping up from 5f races
* Only BARBARY BOY attempts that so he is out
* I wonder if soft ground will suit HUNT THE BOTTLE
* He hasnt raced on soft yet and there are questions on his breeding whether he wants it
* After 3 runs he looks inferior to the last 3 winners of this race
* I wouldnt lay him as he has experience and "sire assumptions" are not a good enough reason
* I would feel he might be vulnerable on soft though

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LINGFIELD 2.20 - LINGFIELDPARK.CO.UK MAIDEN HURDLE (CLASS 5) (4yo+) 2m3f110y

13/8 Warrior Drive, 3/1 Grey Paint, 4/1 Sunset Boulevard, 6/1 Conservation, 9/1 Comeintothespace, 25/1 Beaufort, War Feather.

* This is a Maiden Hurdle over an extended 19 furlongs
* There has been 35 Maiden Hurdles at this trip at this time of year
* Horses that had 1 run like CONSERVATION havent scored well (1-43)
* SUNSET BOULEVARD is an unraced Robert Alner 4 year old
* His stable have shown no sign yet that they are in form and the trainers record is weak
* Robery Alner has a 0-25 record with "Unraced" maiden hurdlers
* He also has a 0-16 record with 4 year olds he runs in these races
* He may go and win but your guessing of you bet him and there is no reason why he will win
* BEAUFORT and WAR FEATHER look out of their depth and unfancied
* I have to oppose GREY PAINT as well
* His big flaw is that he last run in a "Junior" Maiden Hurdle open only to 3 year olds
* At this time of year there have been 35 Maiden Hurdles at this trip - None went to his type
* This may be a far better trend - Since 1994 there has been 450 Maiden Hurdles between 18-23 furlongs
* Thats 450 races at any track - any time of year between 2m 2f and 2m 5f
* Only 1 of the 450 winners came from a 3yo hurdle race as GREY PAINT does
* The overall record is just 1 winner from 60 that tried . It isnt a bomb proof trend but its an issue
* What is certainly is not is any kind of advantage - statistics can at least prove that
* That would be enough to put me off GREY PAINT on its own
* You also have the fact he has ran just twice before and comes from a 2 Mile race which isnt easy
* WARRIOR DRIVE has a considerably stronger profile
* He is fitter - has far more experience - and form against older horse
* He steps down in trip after running second in a Novice Hurdle last time - Just 5 days ago
* I cant find any reason why such a recent run would be a disadvantage
* With GREY PAINT weak statistically and doubts about several others he stands out
* WARRIOR DRIVE looks a good bet to me and by far the most likely winner

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ASCOT 2.35 - JEAN BRYANT MEMORIAL HANDICAP (CLASS 2) (3yo,0-100) 6f

3/1 Genki, 100/30 Jimmy Styles, 5/1 Edge Closer, 6/1 Esteem Machine, 11/1 Everymanforhimself, Off The Record, Sohraab, 12/1 Majuro, 14/1 Mambo Spirit, 20/1 Heywood.

* This is a 3 year old handicap for horses rated 0-97
* There has only been 16 of these races run at this time of year
* Thats surprisingly Low and its a question of "which trends" to trust
* No doubt about Opposing horses coming from a 5f race as they have a 0-54 record
* Only SOHRAAB does that though and he is rejected
* In the 16 races - all 16 winners ran within 31 days - Those that did not were 0-49
* SOHRAAB and JIMMY SYKES had longer absences which is a bad sign
* With JIMMY SYKES - Strictly on 16 similar races he looks to have a weak profile
* If I extended my stats to cover August to October then He would have passed
* This larger sample size shows horses with absences can defy them IF lightly raced as he does
* I wont select JIMMY SYKES - After all his stable are struggling - but I wouldnt make him a negative
* I think that you want a Lightly raced horse with under 13 career starts
* Experienced horses can win but they dont score well and have a 3-99 record with over 12 runs
* The horses that won these races with over 13 runs - mainly ran within the previous week and were fit
* Horses that had 13 or more career starts - and that did not run within a week - Had a 1-77 record
* Thats a pretty poor record and something several of these fail
* MAJURO - MAMBO SPIRIT - HEYWOOD - EVERYMANFORHIMSELF fail these trends
* Horses with 13 or more runs that hadnt ran within 15 days had a 0-47 record
* HEYWOOD fails that trend And that leaves 4 "Ideal Types" who are -
* GENKI - EDGE CLOSER - ESTEEM MACHIBE - OFF THE RECORD
* I said earlier that "its a question of "which trends" to trust"
* Horses that were 2nd 3rd 4th last time out had a 0-63 record
* That is hard to understand and could be significant or a Blip - I dont know
* If it happens in this race then EDGE CLOSER or OFF THE RECORD will win
* I like my shortlist of 4 though and feel EDGE CLOSER has done enough to be selected
* Its Tight - any insufficient sample races make stats dubious - but its EDGE CLOSER for me

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ASCOT 3.10 - WATERSHIP DOWN STUD SALES RACE (FILLIES) (CLASS 2) (2yo) 6f110y

9/2 Anosti, 5/1 Spell Caster, 11/2 Reel Gift, 8/1 Lady Rangali, 10/1 Meridian Line, 12/1 Fifty, Sophie´s Girl, 14/1 Artistic License, 16/1 Eastern Romance, Insaaf, 20/1 Izzibizzi, Town And Gown, 25/1 Carnival Dream, 33/1 Badoura, 50/1 Madam Carwell, Marfeng, Pay Pay Pay, 66/1 Mary Montagu, 100/1 Bond Scissorsister, Our Tallulah, Talamahana, Tea Cake.

* This is one of these Sales races for 2 year olds - but its for fillies only
* You basically have 17 similar races run at this time of year to draw stats from
* However only 6 races had significant fields with over 17 runners and thats an issue
* The 6 races were this race which has been run at Ascot 5 times and Newbury once
* The sample size of "identical" races are far too low for comfort
* However I would be looking to avoid certain "Types" based on the small number of races there were
* Statistically I would want to avoid horses that ran in Nurseries last time
* In this race horses from Nurseries have a 0-38 record
* ANOSTI - LADY RANGALI - SOPHIE´S GIRL - MERIDIAN LINE fail that trend
* Lets look at ANOSTI the favourite as he comes from a 7f Nursery
* I Have looked at all 6f - and 6.5f conditions races like this in the last 20 years
* Ignoring the fact this is a fillies race - I have looked at all 169 races for "all sex" horses
* Take horses that came from 7f Nurseries and you find a miserable 1-99 record
* Thats an unsafe trend as this is a Fillies race - but we dont have enough of these races to crocc check
* None have ever done it in fillies races anyway and I strongly suspect ANOSTI is the wrong type
* Horses that had 7 or more runs also scored badly like MERIDIAN LINE -CARNIVAL DREAM
* Horses coming from 5f races are Fine - but only if they ran once and no more
* ARTISTIC LICENSE does that but she also comes from a Class 5 or Class 6 maiden
* Horses that come from low grade maidens are very weak regardless of what trip they come from
* Horses that came from 5f races havent registered a win in these races since 1997
* I would oppose them myself and EASTERN ROMANCE and Badoura are rejected
* SPELL CASTER is out as no past winner came from either 8f - or a Class 5 or Class 6 maiden
* I Have looked at all 6f - and 6.5f conditions races like this in the last 20 years
* There has been 169 of these races (see Anosti)
* I was deliberately looking for horses like SPELL CASTER that drop from 8f races
* Horses that tried that had a weak 1-55 record in the 169 races and that was a Male horse with 5 runs
* I havent the evidence to "prove" SPELL CASTER is the wrong type - However ..
* There is more than enough circumstantical evidence to feel she is the "wrong type" and I oppose her
* There dont seem to be shocks in these races - Horses at 20/1 and more have a 0-106 record
* My shortlist based on these trends are as follows
* REEL GIFT - FIFTY - INSAAF - TOWN AND GOWN
* INSAAF is unraced and her trainer hasnt won one of these races with an unraced horse before
* I suspect she will run well without winning
* FIFTY and TOWN AND GOWN are maidens - both may improve to win but maidens are 0-83 in this race
* I suspect the winner will be REEL GIFT
* Her form looks a lot better than any other horse
* Many people are saying she has twice ran badly or below par and there are doubts about her
* Maybe so but I felt she was statistically very weak last time and felt she ran a massive race
* I think you can probably ignore her Kempton run before that - she drifted badly
* I think come 3.15pm people will be seeing REEL GIFT win and realising what a great price 5/1 was
* Her trainer has twice won this race
* Her Racing Post rating in the Princess Margaret stakes (125) dwarfs the rating of every past winner
* Her last 2 Ratings would have won 3 of the last 6 renewals and she had excuses for both
* Hannon won this with Indian Ink last year - She also had 4 runs - and had been 4th in the Princess Margaret
* REEL GIFT managed a second in that race
* The only danger for me is if she fades very late over the extended half furlong
* If that doesnt happen then I expect REEL GIFT to win this race

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HAYDOCK 3.20 - VALE UK NURSERY (CLASS 4) (2yo,0-85) 6f

5/2 Silver Wind, 4/1 Artsu, 5/1 Regal Rhythm, 8/1 Eager Diva, 10/1 Nickel Silver, Our Acquaintance, Westwood, 16/1 Danzig Fox, 20/1 Cordon Bleu, Legendary Guest.

* This is a 6f Nursery for horses rated 0-85
* There has been 15 renewals of this race
* There has been 217 similar races in September and October since 1993
* The clearest trends in these races involve opposing horses coming from maidens and several runs
* Horses that 4 or more career starts - that came from Maidens had a 0-17 record in these Haydock races
* They have a very poor record elsewhere as well - In 217 similar races they won just 7 in a 7-283 record
* WESTWOOD - EAGER DIVA - OUR ACQUAINTANCE all fail that statistic
* Horses with 5 + runs coming from maidens like EAGER DIVE and OUR ACQUAINTANCE are even worse
* I couldnt have OUR ACQUAINTANCE as the only horse coming from 5f (1-25 record in Haydocks renewals)
* DANZIG FOX is rejected - In 217 races - there were 66 Male horses dropping from 8f and None won
* NICKEL SILVER doesnt appeal with 3 runs coming from a maiden and absent over 7 weeks
* CORDON BLUE is rejected as Bottomweight - All 36 of those lost in Haydocks 15 renewals
* There are 4 runners I cant fault statistically and these are -
* SILVER WIND - REGAL RHYTHM - ARTSU - LEGENDARY GUEST
* I suppose I could argue against Regal Rhythm as Colts absent a Month or more are 0-21 in this race
* I have to side with SILVER WIND who comes from a C2 Nursery
* He was second in a 0-91 last time and now faces a 0-82
* He is a bit exposed with 9 runs - and thats possibly his flaw - but he is the selection
* Mainly as he is one of the very few witha recent run just 6 days ago
* 5 of the last 6 winners had a recent run and his market dangers have 28-35 day breaks#
* 3 of these came from Class 2 handicaps as SILVER WIND does
* SILVER WIND is the selection and feel Artsu may push him closest

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ASCOT 3.45 - EBF PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS HARVEST STAKES (LISTED RACE) (FILLIES & MARES) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

5/4 All My Loving, 7/2 Brisk Breeze, 13/2 Lake Toya, 8/1 Under The Rainbow, 10/1 Mont Etoile, 12/1 Dance Of Light, 16/1 Dash To The Front, 20/1 Maid To Believe, 25/1 Guilia, 40/1 Generous Jem.

* This is a Listed race over 12 furlongs for all aged Fillies
* Ascot has had 12 renewals of this race
* There has been only 45 of these races at any time of year
* Out goes MAID TO BELIEVE coming from a 3yo handicap
* No winner of this race did that and only 1 of the other 45 races did as well
* She is also a winner last time and all 17 of those were beaten in this race
* ALL MY LOVING and BRISK BREEZE were 2nd and 3rd in the Park Hill Stakes
* They dominate the market - and the Park Hill has provided 2 winners of this race
* One issue in this race is about preparation
* These are high class fillies and its late September and they can easily go over the top
* The last 9 winners ran 5 5 3 5 2 5 2 5 4 runs that season
* No past winner had 6 or more runs that year
* Although only 20 with more than 5 runs took their chance they all lost
* Its an unsafe statistic - but it is a thought about preperation
* ALL MY LOVING (6 Runs) may well be getting to the point of needing a break
* GENEROUS JEM (8 Runs) BRISK BREEZE (8 Runs) UNDER THE RAINBOW (8 Runs) fail as well
* Any of these 4 runners could well be taking one step too far
* LAKE TOYA has had just 1 race that season - No past winner had 1 run but its only a 0-5 trend
* That did include 2 beaten favourites though and LAKE TOYA also has to step up from a 10f race
* She cant be a "negative" - Cant prove she will struggle - but its a worrying profile
* MONT ETOILE and LAKE TOYA were 5th and 6th in a Yarmouth Listed race 9 days ago
* No past winner of this ran within 15 days and all 9 that came from that Yarmouth race lost
* Instinct tells me I should keep LAKE TOYA on my side but I have little evidence to do that
* I think I will oppose this pair and the market leaders ALL MY LOVING and BRISK BREEZE
* The market leaders are hard to split anyway - hardly value - and have 6 + runs already this year
* UNDER THE RAINBOW would have been the selection were it not for 8 + runs
* I like the fact 2 past winners were well beaten in the Park Hill and came on to win
* UNDER THE RAINBOW was also hampered in that race and wasnt beaten far
* I could quite easily see UNDER THE RAINBOW or GUILIA coming from the Park Hill to win
* Horses like these-well beaten in the Park Hill - have won this race and both are "Positives"
* DASH TO THE FRONT has a penalty but thats inconclusive as only 1 tried that in a 0-1 record
* I cant argue against DANCE OF LIGHT statistically
* DANCE OF LIGHT flopped last time but his trainer M Stoute won this in 2000 and 2001
* Both his winners had exactly 5 runs as DANCE OF LIGHT has
* In Conclusion I would make the following Positives - but in two categories
* Statistically Flawed Positives are UNDER THE RAINBOW and LAKE TOYA
* Statistically Ideal profiles are GUILIA - DANCE OF LIGHT
* With rain possible - this is starting to look a very confused profile !!!
* I am bailing out !!! - but it wouldnt surprise me if a big priced shock happened
* My statistical "Ideal" shortlist is GUILLA and DANCE OF LIGHT
* I will therefore nominate GUILLA each way at 28/1 and 33/1 available

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ASCOT 4:55 - BOLLINGER CHAMPAGNE HANDICAP (FOR GENTLEMAN AMATEUR RIDERS) (CLASS 4) (4yo+,0-80) 1m4f

4/1 Wait For The Will, 11/2 Elopement, Mystic Storm, 7/1 Apache Fort, Trafalgar Day, 15/2 Rare Coincidence, 12/1 Salute, 14/1 Cape Greko, 16/1 Katies Tuitor, 20/1 Gallego, Sand Repeal, 33/1 Turtle Soup.

* This is a 12f handicap for Amateur Riders
* There has been 17 renewals of this race
* I Dont like GALLEGO who was hammered in this race last year
* MYSTIC STORM comes from a 14f race and 20 that did that lost
* TRAFALGAR DAY has the longest absence of every past winner with 85 days
* Ascot has ran 62 handicaps at 12f before and No horse had an 80+days absence
* I cant have KATIES TUITOR or TURTLE SOUP with 1 run that season
* My problem with WAIT FOR THE WILL is that he is aged 11 and has a 41 day break
* He is in the Veteran stage and 41 days doesnt seem ideal to me.
* I looked at the 1475 handicaps in September and October at 11f or more
* None went to horses aged 11 or more with over a Months absence
* Thats not as good as it sounds as few were fancied but it troubles me
* Ascot has ran 62 handicaps at 12f before and No horse was aged 11 or more
* I would have to make ELOPEMENT a positive having won just 4 days ago
* She is 6 years younger than Wait For The Will and has a recent run
* You have to wonder if her fitness edge will be enough for her
* ELOPEMENT is the only filly in the race but Females have a good record in this race
* I would rathet have ELOPEMENT than anything else

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HAYDOCK 5:05 - GRIFFITHS & ARMOUR HANDICAP (CLASS 3) (3yo+,0-90) 1m30y

9/2 St Andrews, 6/1 Granston, 13/2 Paceman, 7/1 Observatory Star, 8/1 Full Victory, Zaahid, 9/1 Osteopathic Remedy, 10/1 Blue Monkey, 11/1 Nevada Desert, Wheels In Motion, 12/1 Kamanda Laugh, 16/1 Medici Pearl, 40/1 Fan Club.

* This is a 0-88 Handicap over a Mile
* Haydock has had 82 of these races all year round
* Haydock has had 19 renewals of this race at this time of year
* There has been 277 similar races in September and October
* Many of these horses lack a recent run and I question their fitness
* ST ANDREWS is rejected as a 7 year old absent 34 days
* In 277 similar races at this time of year Horses aged 7 or more absent a Month were 0-85
* That shows that ST ANDREWS has big question marks to answer from a fitness point of view
* ST ANDREWS won this race in 2004 but thats a long time ago
* If you take the Haydock 82 similar races - Horses aged 6 or more with a months absence won just 1
* In the same 82 races - Exposed Horses with 20 + career starts had a weak 1-68 record
* ST ANDREWS - KAMANDA LAUGH - FULL VICTORY all fail that trend
* Horses that defy long absences are best able to do it when unexposed and Younger
* In 277 similar races at this time of year exposed 5 year olds like FULL VICTORY scored badly
* His 3 career wins came with 3 recent runs and I dont like his 59 day break
* ST ANDREWS - KAMANDA LAUGH - FULL VICTORY have to be opposed statistically
* I want to oppose horses that came from 3yo handicaps
* BLUE MONKEY - FAN CLUB - MEDICI PEARL - PACEMAN do this
* Horses that come from 3yo handicaps have a 1-47 record in this race which isnt great
* That included 4 beaten favourites and 5 beaten second favourites
* In 277 races Horses coming from 3yo handicaps dont score well either
* Those that do win are invariably female and very lightly raced and very progressive
* Consider Male horses coming from 3yo handicaps- with over a Months absence - and 7 or more career starts
* The types have a 0-85 record and thats in 277 similar handicaps to this over a 20 year span in September/October
* BLUE MONKEY - PACEMAN both fail that statistic
* In the 19 Haydock renewals horses aged 3 score badly with and when having under 9 runs
* They had a 1-62 record since 1988 when having under 9 runs
* PACEMAN and ZAAHID both fail that trend
* PACEMAN and ZAAHID also have absences to contend with
* MEDICI PEARL also comes from a 3yo handicap and she is the Only filly in this race and shes absent 40 days
* There are 4 horses I cant fault statistically - and these are -
* OBSERVATORY STAR - OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY - NEVADA DESERT - GRANSTON - WHEELS IN MOTION
* You can argue WHEELS IN MOTION is just a bit too inexperienced but he should be on the shortlist
* He ran very well last time from an impossible statistical challenge and this race looks no harder
* NEVADA DESERT is not well handicapped and ran a bit flat last time but 25/1 for a statistically solid horse appeals
* OBSERVATORY STAR has a great chance if tuned up after 34 days absence
* Two of the last 3 winners had longer absences and still won and he is a big runner
* OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY ran more than well enough at Ayr last week to go close here
* GRANSTON has a big chance as he gets a track with a Bend - which he needs
* He is better on fast ground and on right handed tracks - but he has won left handed and acts on soft
* His trainer also had a winner last night and he has come 1st 2nd or 3rd in 24 of his 46 races
* I feel one of these 4 ought to win but nailing down the correct selection isnt easy
* I will side with lightweight improvers WHEELS IN MOTION and OBSERVATORY STAR as my shortlist
* Both look decent value and I think there is a good chance one can win this

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