Monday

No Account Bet

Several races considered today. When you take out the short priced horses and the Races with poor angles and the races that are too tough I was left with just 3 races that stood out to me as potential races I could have advised
a Bet in today. The options available were these.

My Best Bet Today

Bath 3.00 - SPRING DREAM 8/1


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Other Options

Musselburgh 3.10 - WHINMILL HOUSE 6/1 Each way
Dissapointed last time but had excuses. He looks solid each way material

Musselburgh 2.40 - MANEKI NEKO 5/1 Each Way
I wanted to tip the Non runner Sedgwick but Maneki Neko scared me a lot. Now Sedgwick is out he looks a good each way bet against a warm favourite.

Just decided against SPRING DREAM as a Bet. She came close but not close enough. I think she is more then good value. I just dont know if today is the day she will win the race that she is about to win from her lenient mark.

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TODAY'S RACING


BATH 2.00 - 11/4 Fox´s Den, 3/1 Sauze D´Oulx, 11/2 Waveline, 7/1 Little Pete, Replicator, 8/1 Midnight Fling, 16/1 Hyper Viper, 20/1 Nestor Protector, 50/1 Gillans Inn.

* Classy little Novice Event for 2 year olds
* Bath has hosted this race 12 times before
* I dont feel there are many angles to help you here
* Unraced horses have a weak 1-36 record in this race
* Possible reason to oppose Midnight Fling - Hyper Viper - Gillans Inn.
* No unraced filly like Midnight Fling has won at this track. Its unforgiving to unraced horses.
* There have been 101 similar races run at this time of year since 1990
* Only 1 winner came via a selling race like Nestor Protector so he is out
* I dont want Replicator - Very few winners were unplaced last time out and hardly any were unplaced before that.
* Replicator is from a family that have no quality and that have dreadful strike rates with the siblings
* I can take or leave FOX'S DEN but There are things I dont like and dont like about him
* I liken the fact he has ran once and has been off 7 weeks - Horses doing that have good records
* Dont like that he is "small" - or that he cost just 2200 Guineas - And I dont like that he is Gelded
* I suspect SAUZE D'OULX - WAVELINE - LITTLE PETE are the best options in a tight race
* I prefer the Topweight SAUZE D'OULX . With 3 runs he looks strong against lighter raced rivals
* His jockeys claim negates his penalty. So far 3 of the 5 penalty carriers in this race won.

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BATH 2.30 - 8/11 Whiskey Junction, 3/1 Oystermouth, 8/1 Millsini, 16/1 Damhsoir, 20/1 Chingford, Nawayea, 25/1 Mr Forthright, 50/1 The Carpet Man

SELECTION - WHISKEY JUNCTION

* This is a 5f Maiden race for horses aged 3 and 4
* It has only been run 3 times before - Each time by a horse thats had several runs
* The only 4 year old NAWAYEA surely wont win - Rated just 45 and giving weight away
* CHINGFORD - DAMHSOIR and MR FORTHRIGHT are also rated low and would be far better off in a handicap
* DAMHSOIR is from a stable with a 0-46 record in maiden races
* Whilst this race was run just 3 times before there have been 16 other maidens in May
* This looks between the experienced WHISKEY JUNCTION and the unraced OYSTERMOUTH
* I Have to take on the Unraced OYSTERMOUTH
* None of the 16 maidens at this trip in May went to an unraced horse
* Between MAY and NOVEMBER there have been 146 of these races since 1986
* Only 5 of the 146 winners were unraced
* Only 2 of the 146 winners were unraced Fillies
* Roger Charlton may not be the Man to win with a debutant filly anyway
* With unraced horses in All aged maidens only 1 of his last 49 runners won
* He has never had an unraced maiden with either at Windsor over over 5 furlongs
* You would have to consider the 73 rated WHISKEY JUNCTION far safer than an unraced filly
* MILLSINI has some quality in her pedigree so you couldnt rule her out - Could be the danger
* Hard to see beyond WHISKEY JUNCTION

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MUSSELBURGH 2.40 - 5/4 Collette´s Choice, 5/1 Maneki Neko, 10/1 Sir Arthur, 12/1 Categorical, Platinum Charmer, 14/1 Toshi, 16/1 Psychic Star, 25/1 Zabeel Tower.

* Interesting 12f Handicap
* I dont see why SIR ARTHUR should suddenly bounce back to form
* He has ran badly on his last 4 runs since last Summer
* PLATINUM CHARMER hasnt ran in 199 days and from s atable with a poor absence record
* He will probably need the run
* Favourite COLLETTES CHOICE has a clear chance but she isnt for me at a short price
* She is a 4 year old filly at the limit of her stamina limitations in my view
* I think she stays and I think she has the ability to win but she isnt value
* MANEKI NEKO has every chance down in Grade - He is value at 5/1

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BATH 3.00 - 5/2 Caucasienne, 7/2 Charmatic, 5/1 Move Over Darling, Squirtle, 7/1 Spring Dream, Theatre Royal, 50/1 Lady Lucas.

* This is a Fillies Handicap over 13 furlongs
* This is the LONGEST Fillies handicap in the Callender during the Flat season
* Bath have ran this race 14 times but no other track has a race over this far for fillies
* Most frustrating thing is that there are just 7 runners and no each way
* As well as Lady Lucas the outsider I have to make THEATRE ROYAL a negative
* I just dont believe THEATRE ROYAL will stay being by Royal Applause
* I feel I know the sire well. He has had 320 winners from 3535 runners
* Remarkably only 2 won beyond 14f trips and he isnt a stamina sire
* I dont see her getting this extra 2 furlongs and she is rejected
* MOVE OVER DARLING has had just 3 runs
* As no winner of this race had 3 runs (0-6)
* Her Trainer Paul Cole has never won a fillies handicap with a horse with 3 runs
* Without any supporting evidence MOVE OVER DARLING is passed over
* CAUCASIENNE won a modest race last time. She has a good chance again
* I just feel she is vulnerable to something better handicapped and she doesnt look progressive
* CHARMATIC cant be ruled out but has raced just twice in a year and once in 6 months
* CHARMATIC may not be fit enough today
* CHARMATIC may not stay either. Her best form is at 10f and she hasnt looked a natural stayer
* Her trainer has gone on record as saying "she doesnt quite get a mile and a half" which is significant
* I think SPRING DREAM and SQUIRTLE are both interesting
* I dont see why the well handicapped SQUIRTLE cant go well in this race
* I do prefer SPRING DREAM though
* SPRING DREAM is very interesting
* After 2 wins last year she was rated 74 and was possibly badly handicapped
* She is now rated 63 - and as she has won off 66 and 69 she is now well handicapped
* She has dropped 7lbs in the handicap this year for 3 races she couldnt win
* She was never going to win on her seasonal debut at Folkestone with an 8 months absence
* She was not fit when she went to Thirsk for her second run of the year
* Channon has never won a fillies handicap with a debutant or a "once raced" horse before
* Her 3rd run at Kempton was probably over too long a trip of 2 Miles
* She is from a sire thats never bred a 2 mile winner before
* 3 recent winners of this race dropped from a 2 mile race to win this contest
* This is her 4th run of the year and she should now be fit and well handicapped

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BATH 3.30 - 7/2 Chatshow, 6/1 Harrison´s Flyer, 7/1 Willhewiz, 8/1 Brigadore, 10/1 Drumming Party, Littledodayno, Safari Mischief, 12/1 Decider, 14/1 Brandywell Boy, 16/1 Avoca Dancer, 20/1 Fateful Attraction, Royal Orissa, Triskaidekaphobia, 25/1 Ceredig, Hard To Catch, 33/1 Pulse.

* Extended 5 furlong and 161 yard handicap
* This race has been run 18 times before
* Horses that had fewer than 13 career starts had a 0-74 record in this race and 4 were favourites
* This is not a track that forgives inexperience easily
* Decider - Avoca Dancer - Safari Mischief fail that trend
* Want to ignore horses with 8 months absence
* Bath have ran 97 handicaps at this trip at any time of year
* None of the 97 winners defied an absence of 8 months or more
* Safari Mischief - Drumming Party -Hard To Catch have that to overcome
* You do seem to need a high weight in this race. The Classier horses have dominated this race.
* Horses that Carried under 8st 12lbs in this race had a very weak 1-124 record
* Triskaidekaphobia - Pulse - Royal Orissa - Ceredig - Fateful Attraction fail that statistic
* The 5 horses that come out best statistically are these
* CHATSHOW - BRIGADORE - WILLHEWIZ - BRANDYWELL BOY - LITTLEDODAYNO
* CHATSHOW was 7th in this race last year and is 3lbs higher now
* I am not convinced by his draw or by his 26 day absence
* BRIGADORE is statistically very solid but stall 1 worries me
* Any of the 5 may win this race and much comes down to luck and draw issues

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BATH 4.00 - 2/1 Apex, 5/1 Seneschal, 7/1 Voice Mail, 12/1 Vampyrus, 14/1 Alexian, Ile Michel, 16/1 Border Edge, Golden Spectrum, Moves Goodenough, 20/1 Bold Cross, Debord, Lizarazu, Wrighty Almighty, 33/1 Katie Lawson, Merchant Bankes, Reflecting.

* This 8f Handicap has been run 19 times before and 3 trends stand out
* Horses that have never won a race before had a weak 1-71 record
* Horses that had fewer than 13 career starts had a 0-105 record
* Horses that ran at 7f or shorter last time out had a 0-85 record
* Horses aged 9 or more in similar races thatn had a long absence had poor records
* Border Edge - Ile Michel have that to overcome
* Hard to fancy Voice Mail. Has a Long losing run going back years and hasnt won after a break before
* Horses with 1 run that year and an absence of over 48 days have miserable records
* From 228 similar handicaps only 1 horse managed that
* ALEXIAN is opposed because of that
* This leaves a shortlist of 7 runners that pass every trend
* Apex - Seneschal - Golden Spectrum come out best

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WINDSOR 7.10 - 7/4 Bergonzi, 100/30 My Secrets, 4/1 Hi Calypso, 5/1 Wait For The Light, 10/1 King Joshua, 12/1 Oakley Heffert, 33/1 Jane Of Arc.

* This is a handicap just a few yards short of 12 furlongs
* In recent years Windsor has had 32 of these handicaps
* There has been 114 at other tracks in this class
* Only 1 of the 114 winners had ran in Listed or Group class before
* That would worry me for HI CALYPSO
* If you look at how fillies got on that had an absence of 7 weeks or more its poor
* Only 2 of the 114 winners were fillies that had that sort of absence
* Again HI CALYPSO has that to answer. The above two issues put me off her
* This Windsor race shows a clear bias to horses that had under 7 starts
* 29 of the 32 Windsor handicaps had under 7 career starts
* This suggests BERGONZI and WAIT FOR THE LIGHT are most interesting

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WINDSOR 7.40 - 3/1 Makabul, 5/1 Mistral Sky, 7/1 Currency, 10/1 Campbeltown, Full Spate, Montzando, Pat Will, 12/1 Princely Vale, Saxon Saint, 16/1 Arfinnit, 20/1 Going Skint, Hornpipe, Mine The Balance, 25/1 Festive Tipple, 33/1 African Concerto, Task Complete.

* This is a claiming race over 6 furlongs
* There have been 8 renewals of this race and the trends can produce a shortlist
* Horses aged 3 have a 0-30 record in this race
* Horses aged 4 have a 0-38 record in this race
* All 8 winners ran within the previous 31 days
* Every past winner had won a race before (others 0-40)
* Horses with 8st 11lbs or less have a 0-51 record
* All 8 winners had at least 13 career starts and 7 of the 8 winners had at least 20 races
* 7 of the 8 winners had at least 2 races that season
* Horses ridden by a claiming jockey have a 0-40 record
* Several come reasonably well but the only solid runner with no flaws is MISTRAL SKY

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WINDSOR 8.10 - 4/1 Dramatic Turn, 6/1 Gower, Sohraab, 7/1 Just Joey, 8/1 Fairfield Princess, 10/1 Bertoliver, Reebal, Spoof Master, 12/1 Pretty Miss, Tobermory, 14/1 Ishi Adiva, 25/1 Buckie Massa.

* This is a 3 year old handicap over 5 furlongs
* The 12 Windsor renewals are messy and confusing
* There have been 101 of these races at other tracks
* It would concern me that only 7 of the 101 winners were seasonal debutants
* Only 3 of these were female seasonal debutants
* Only 1 of the 101 winners came from a 2 year old maiden
* DRAMATIC TURN is a female seasonal debutant coming from a 2yo maiden
* I couldnt bet DRAMATIC TURN
* SOHRAAB is still his Sires only 5f winner and I thought that 5f win was lucky
* His sire has only had 1 winner at 6f as well
* I would not want to bet SOHRAAB back at the minimum trip myself
* I would much rather bet the improving GOWER than either
* There could well be something that beats all three

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WINDSOR 8.40 - Evs Cliche, 6/4 Siamese Cat, 14/1 Pendulum Star, Regal Estate, Susanna´s Dance, 16/1 Labor Day, 25/1 Asturias, 33/1 Condi, 50/1 Collioure, 66/1 Aphrodisia, Scar Tissue, Sofia Royale, 100/1 Vive La Chasse.

* 8f Fillies Maiden for all aged horses
* Looks to be a match between CLICHE and SIAMESE CAT
* Looking at unraced horses in these 8f fillies maidens they have a 0-90 record
* This must put me off REGAL ESTATE and SUSANNA'S DANCE
* This Windsor race shows horses that ran within the previous 2 weeks having a 0-33 record
* You would expect Michael Stoute who runs CLICHE to score better than Brian Meehan with debutants
* SIAMESE CAT is a filly from Brian Meehans stable with a 205 day absence
* Brian Meehan isnt a strong trainer with horses that have an absence
* Almost 700 career winners and just 12 were absent 4 months or more
* I would far rather trust Michael Stoute and CLICHE to be better ready to win

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